Chaos and Confidence Weather Forecasting Competition

By

Carlo Cafaro Ioannis Katharopoulos

University of Reading

Imperial College London, 14th December 2016

Ladies and gentlemen, good evening! Tomorrow there is the final day of the cricket match in Manchester, so let’s see how weather will affect this important event.

We will illustrate first the weather forecast in early morning and then we will focus on Manchester for the match time.

Manchester

What : Moderate rain in these 3 hours.

How likely is this event ?

60 – 80 %

40 – 60 % 20 – 40 %

10 – 20 % 0 – 10 % elsewhere

ciao

When: 4 am – 7 am

Monday 4 – 7 am

Manchester

How likely is this event ? 80 – 100 % 60 - 80 % 40 – 60 % 20 – 40 % 10 – 20 % 0 – 10 % elsewhere

When: 4 am – 7 am

What : Light rain in these 3 hours.

Monday 4 – 7 am

Manchester

How likely is this

event ?

80 – 90 % 60 – 80 % 40 – 60 % 20 – 40 % 10 – 20 % 0 – 10 % elsewhere

When: 7 am – 10 am

What : Moderate rain in these 3 hours.

Monday 4 – 7 am

How likely is this event ? 80 – 100 % 60 - 80 % 40 – 60 % 20 – 40 % 10 – 20 % 0 – 10 % elsewhere

Manchester

What : Light rain in these 3 hours.

When: 7 am – 10 am

Where: Manchester What: Total rain in these 3 hours

Light rain

Moderate rain

LIKELIHOOD OF EACH SCENARIO

coi

Manchester

When: 10 am – 1 pm

Manchester

Light rain

Moderate rain

LIKELIHOOD OF EACH SCENARIO

Where: Manchester What: Total rain in these 3 hours

When: 1 pm – 4 pm

Manchester

Light rain

Moderate rain

No rain

LIKELIHOOD OF EACH SCENARIO

Where: Manchester What: Total rain in these 3 hours

When: 4 pm – 7 pm