Building on Shifting Ground - Lux Research...

BuildingonShiftingGround

MichaelHolman,Ph.D.VPofResearch

June2,2016

10shortyearsago,theGlobal500

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#3 #4

#1

#5

#7

#17

#64 #105

#131 #144 #152#33

#96

Agenda

  Keepingpacewithexternalforces  Gatheringandactingonintelligence  Thenewinnovationforce

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Agenda

  Keepingpacewithexternalforces  Gatheringandactingonintelligence  Thenewinnovationforce

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Frederickwasgreat,inhisday…

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…buttimeschanged

  Napoleonicwarfarewascharacterizedby"...itslimitlessvariationandflexibility."

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Newchallengesarise,newnecessitiesemerge

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Adaptinganoldinstitutiontoanewreality

  Seethetheater Knowingwhenanimportantbroad-basedchangeortrendisreality

  Designforeffect Changingtheforce:products,processesandpeople

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Agenda

Keepingpacewithexternalforces  Gatheringandactingonintelligence(“SeetheTheater”)Thenewinnovationforce(“DesignforEffect”)

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HowabouttheLuxtheater?

EnergyandInfrastructure

HealthandWellness

InformationMeetsMatter

IndustrialIoT

ExplorationandProduction

EnergyStorage

AutonomousSystems2.0

AlternativeFuels

IntelligentBuildings

SustainableBuildingMaterials

Water

AgroInnovation

DigitalHealth&Wellness

Bio-basedMaterials&Chemicals

WearableElectronics

AdvancedMaterials

IndustrialBigData&Analytics

Solar

DistributedGeneration

SensorsFuture

Platforms

FoodandNutrition

Coatings

ElectronicUserInterfaces

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TheshiftinggroundofRedistributedEverything

Culminationofdecades-longtrendsinscience,business,andgovernmentareleadingtochangesthatredistributevaluebetween:

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Industries Productsvs.services

Scalevs.customizationCapexvs.opex

Hardwarevs.software Centralizedvs.distributed


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Etc.

RedistributingAutomotivemayaswellstartwithwhatpowersit

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1

CriticalfactorsforacceleratingEVadoptionareliningup

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1

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Newcarsales

thatareplug-ins

Thejourneytowardselectricdominanceisjuststartingbutthedestinationiscloserthanyouthink

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1

Otheraspectsofthecarstartedchangingmuchearlierthanthepowersource

1% 3% 4%10%

15%20%

30%35%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

ElectronicsandSoftwareasaPercentofCarCost

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1

Theproliferationofautonomousfeaturesdrivesproliferationofsensors

17

1

Asdriverassistlevelsaresupersededbyhigherautonomy,morecostgoestoelectronicsandIT

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

PercentofnewcarssoldthathaveBasicautonomouscapabilities

(%)

Restofworld

China

Europe

Japan

U.S.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Percentofnewcarssoldthat

haveEnhancedautonomouscapabilities

(%)

Restofworld

China

Europe

Japan

U.S.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Percentofnewcarssoldthat

havePartialautonomouscapabilities

(%)

Restofworld

China

Europe

Japan

U.S.

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1

RedistributedConstruction:Wait…thisisn’tnew,isit?

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Prefabricatedandmodularbuildingmethodshaveexistedfor100yearsalready;Advantagesarecompellingatfacevalue:

  Costreduction:15–30%onoverallbuildingcosts

  Speedofconstruction:on-siteconstructiontypically3to20weeks

  Highquality:moreaccuratefabricationincontrolledenvironment

  And,morerecently:

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Prefabrication’svaluehasbeenlimitedbyalackofflexibilityandconservativeadopterdominance

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012345678910

Traditionalbuilding Prefabrication1.0(attractive)

Prefabrication2.0(disruptive)

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Only20%ofbuildingsareprefabricatedtodate,whilemodularisniche

Disruptionontheway….

  Functionalityunachievableon-site:  Multifunctionalcoatingsappliedwithprecision

  Integratedsuperiorinsulationconcepts

  Increasedbiomimeticdesignoptionality

  Integratedlightandsolarradiationmanagement

  Masscustomizationtechnology:  Robotsenteringthefabricationprocess

  3Dprintingofbuildingcomponentsandentirebuildings

  Designandconstructionintegratedinsoftware

  Easydeconstructiontobasicmaterials:  Easyrecycling

  Eliminatingmaterialcostsinremodeling

  Newownershipbusinessmodels

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2

Prefabrication2.0…andwheredisruptioncomesfrom

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012345678910

Prefabrication1.0(attractive) Prefabrication2.0(disruptive)

2

Prefabrication2.0…andwheredisruptioncomesfrom

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012345678910

Prefabrication1.0(attractive) Prefabrication2.0(disruptive)

• Materialrecycling• Productionautomation

• Specialtycoatings• Productionautomation• Improvedperformance

• 3Dprinting• Integrateddesignanddeliverysoftware• Productionautomation

• Materialrecycling• Superiorinsulationsystems• Improvedperformance

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RedistributedHealthcare:Redesigninganunsustainablesystem

Cardiovasculardisease

Skincancer

Diarrhoealdisease

Visualimpairmentandblindness

Epilepsy

Depression

Asthma

Lungcancer

Parkinson’sdisease

Diabetes

Infertility

Deafnessandhearingloss

Globally,235millionpeoplesufferfromasthma.Thediseaseisthemostcommonchronicdisease

amongchildren

Theleadingglobalcauseofdeathat17.3milliondeaths/year.Theannualcostofthediseasetothe

EUis€196billion

Globally,anestimated350millionpeoplesufferfrom

depression,makingittheleadingcauseofdisabilityworldwide

Globally,9%ofadultsaged18+yearshavediabetes.In2012,1.5

milliondeathsweredirectlycausedbythedisease

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3

Theaggregated,inefficient,unsustainablecostofthecurrentmodel


Skincancer

Diarrhoealdisease


Epilepsy

Depression

Asthma

Lungcancer

Diabetes

Infertility



Medicareestimatesthat$17billioninreadmission

costsareavoidable.

71¢ofeverydollarofUShealthcarespendinggoestotreatingpeoplewith

multiplechronicconditions.

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3

Emergingdigitalhealthandwellnesssolutionsarepositionedtoredefineandredistributethevalue


Skincancer

Diarrhoealdisease


Epilepsy

Depression

Asthma

Lungcancer

Diabetes

Infertility



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3

Allconditionshavebehavioraugmentationconnectionstootherdiseases


Skincancer

Diarrhoealdisease


Epilepsy

Depression

Asthma

Lungcancer


Diabetes

Infertility


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3

Isolatingdownto12majorconditionsshowsthescaleofthehealthcareopportunity


Skincancer

Diarrhoealdisease


Epilepsy

Depression

Asthma

Lungcancer

Diabetes

Infertility



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3

Redistributingredistributedhealthcare

  VastnetworkofpartnerspositionsQualcomm’s2netplatformasacompletesolutionformanyapplications,with82companiesfocusedondigitalhealthandwellness

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3

Agenda

KeepingpacewithexternalforcesGatheringandactingonintelligence(“SeetheTheater”)Thenewinnovationforce(“DesignforEffect”)

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  Changeyourperspective

  “New”businessdevelopment…

…shouldnotlooklikeoldbusinessdevelopment

  Existingcompetencies…

…betternotdefineyourfuturecompetencies

  Softwarewon’teattheworld…

…butitisgoingtobefatandhappy

Etc.

Designingspecialforces:Therightteam

 “SledgehammerInnovation”

 Hand-pickedteamsoftherightsize

 Appropriatelyinsulatedfunctionallyandspatiallyfromothers

  Empoweredtoact

 Ownershipofoutcome

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Designingspecialforces:Therightcompetencies

  Preparingforthenewinnovationbattle  HeadofDigitalTransformationStrategy

  Director,DigitalInnovationOrganization

  Director,OpenInnovation,NewBusiness&DigitalDisruption

  VPDigitalTransformation

  TeamLeadDigitalWorkplaceBusinessServices

  GeneralManager,DigitalEnterpriseRealization

  GeneralManagerofITInnovation

  DigitalFactoryBusinessDevelopment

  HeadoftheDigitalOffice

  SeniorVicePresident,ProjectLeader4.0

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Designingspecialforces:Therightmission

  Uselessfertilizer

  farmersavings/benefitsvarybetween50and100EUR/ha

  IncreasedmarginforYara

  Increasedmarketshareintermsofhectaresserved

  Visualremoteguidancelaunchedin2014tosupportHPIqualityandcostofservice

  Broadenedtootherindustriesin2015

  Revenuegeneratingwith40totalcustomers,includingthoseinpilottesting

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“Thegreatestandnoblestpleasurewhichmencanhaveinthisworldistodiscovernewtruths;andthenextistoshakeoffoldprejudices”

-FredericktheGreat

"Onemustchangeone'stacticsevery10yearsifonewishestomaintainone'ssuperiority”

-Napoleon...in1806

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Building on Shifting Ground - Lux Research...

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