Budget08 Released on 17 November 2009 ppt version 11 May ...€¦ · Budget08 Released on 17...
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Carbon Carbon
20082008BudgetBudget
Budget08 Released on 17 November 2009ppt version 11 May 2010
GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium
Artist Impression of the Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle
Corinne Le QuéréSchool of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK Michael R. Raupach
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia
Josep G. CanadellGlobal Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra,
Australia Gregg Marland
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Laurent BoppLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 1572 CEA-
CNRS-UVSQ, France Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 1572 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Thomas J. Conway
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Scott C. Doney
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Richard A. Feely
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA Pru Foster
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Pierre Friedlingstein
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, FranceQUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
Kevin GurneyDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Agronomy,
Purdue University, Indiana, USA Richard A. Houghton
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Joanna I. House
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Chris Huntingford
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK Peter E. Levy
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK
GCP-Carbon Budget2008 ConsortiumMark R. Lomas
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, UJoseph Majkut
AOS Program, Princeton University, PO Box CN710, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Nicolas MetzlLOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et
Marie Curie, Paris, France Jean P. Ometto
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos-SP, Brazil Glen P. Peters
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, NorwayColin Prentice
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK James T. Randerson
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
Steven W. RunningSchool of Forestry/Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of
Montana, Missoula, USA Jorge L. Sarmiento
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, USA
Ute SchusterSchool of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Stephen SitchSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Taro TakahashiLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, USA
Nicolas ViovyLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-
UVSQ, FranceGuido R. van der Werf
Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam 1081 HV, Netherlands
F. Ian WoodwardDepartment of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield,
UK
Fossil Fuel Emissions and Cement Production
CO2
emiss
ions (
PgC
y-1)
9
8
7
6
1990 2000 2010
Growth rate: 1.0% per year
Growth rate: 3.4% per year
2008: Emissions: 8.7 PgCGrowth rate: 2.0%1990 levels: +41%
2000-2008Growth rate: 3.4%
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009
[1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1 Billion metric tonnes = 1 Gigatonne = 1x1015g]
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009
CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions
Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) Developed Nation
Developing Nations Non-Annex B
1990 2000 2010
5
4
3
2CO2
emiss
ions (
PgC
y-1) 55%
45%
1990 05 01 05 200807 99 0303Time
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000Ca
rbon
Emi
ssion
s per
year
(tons
x 1,0
00,00
0)China
USA
Japan
Russian Fed. India
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Top Emitters (>4% of Total)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
1990 05 01 05 200807 99 0303
Time0
40
80
120
160 UK
Denmark
South Africa
Australia Spain
Canada
Brazil
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Profile Examples (1-4% of Total)
Carb
on E
miss
ions p
er ye
ar(to
ns x
1,000
,000)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
Balance of Emissions Embodied in Trade (BEET)
Peters and Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech., updated
MtCBEET
Warm colors Net exporters of embodied carbonCold colors Net importers of embodied carbon
Year 2004
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009
Transport of Embodied Emissions
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
Annex B Developed Nations
Developing Nations Non-Annex B
1990 2000 2010
5
4
3
2
55%
45%
1990 2000 2010
5
25% of growth
Annex B Developed Nations
Developing Nations Non-Annex B
4
3
2
Number of Countries
Country Cumulative Fraction
China .232USA .419India .477Russia .530Japan .573Germany .599Canada .617UK .633 South Korea .652Iran .668Poland .800Belarus .941Moldova .992
1.00
Cumulative Fraction of Total FF Emissions 2008
Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
123456789102050 (2005)
100 (2005)
210
3 countries50% Global Emissions
10 countries2/3 Global Emissions
Top 5 + EU80% Global Emissions
Components of FF Emissions
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
CO2
emiss
ions (
PgC
y-1)
Oil
Coal
Gas
Cement
4
3
2
1
01990 2000 2010
40%
36%
Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal Emissions
CDIAC 2009; Global Carbon Project 2009
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
China USIndia World
CO2
emiss
ions (
TgC
y-1)
90% of growth
2006-2008
Per Capita CO2 Emissions
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009
Per C
apita
Emi
ssion
s(tC
perso
n-1y-1
)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1.3
1.2
1.1
Developed countries continue to lead with the highest emission per capita
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Foss
il Fu
el E
mis
sion
(GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10
A1BA1FIA1TA2B1B2
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis CenterInternational Energy Agency
Averages
Full range of IPCC individual scenarios
Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth
International Monetary Fund, October 2009
-1.1%
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
Projection 2009Emissions: -2.8%GDP: -1.1% C intensity: -1.7%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Foss
il Fu
el E
mis
sion
(GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10
Projection
A1BA1FIA1TA2B1B2
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis CenterInternational Energy Agency
Full range of IPCC individual scenarios
Averages
Modified from Le Quéré et al. 2009
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009
CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change
Fossil fuel
Land use change
10
8
6
4
2
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
CO2
emiss
ions (
PgC
y-1)
Net CO2 Emissions from LUC in Tropical Countries
2000-2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Brazil
Indonesia
CO2
emiss
ions (
TgC
y-1)
RA Houghton 2009, unpublished; Based on FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment
60%
Venezuela
Rep.Dem.Congo
Nigeria
4-2%
Cameroon
Peru
Philippines
2-1%
Colombia
Nicaragua
Nepal
India
<1%
Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences
Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2005)
(Area)
van der Werf et al. 2006, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, updated
Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones
Fire E
miss
ions f
rom
defor
estat
ion zo
nes (
TgC
y-1)
Global Fire Emissions Dataset (vs2)
Total Anthropogenic Emissions 2008
Fossil fuel
Land use change
10
8
6
4
2
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
CO2
emiss
ions (
PgC
y-1) 8.7
1.2
9.9 PgC
12% of total anthropogenic
emissions
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
2000 - 2008: 1.9 ppm y-1
2008 1.792007 2.122006 1.772005 2.412004 1.62 2003 2.222002 2.402001 1.852000 1.24
Year 2008385 ppm
38% above pre-industrial
Annual Mean Growth Rate
Total CO2 emissions
Atmosphere
Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
CO2
Partit
ioning
(PgC
y-1)
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
10
8
6
4
2
Key Diagnostic of the Carbon CycleEvolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere
Airb
orne
Fra
ction
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphereAirborne Fraction
Trend: 0.27±0.2 % y-1 (p=0.9)
40%45%
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences
Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
outgas
uptake
Estimated Trends in Sea-Air pCO2
1981-2007
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
μatm y-1
Possible Reasons for a Positive Trend in Airborne Fraction
• Emissions are rising faster than the time scales regulating the rate of uptake by sinks.
• Sinks are becoming less efficient at high CO2– Land: saturation of the CO2 fertilization effect– Ocean: decrease in [carbonate] which buffers CO2
• Land and/or ocean sinks are responding to climate change and variability.
• We are missing sink processes in models that are contributing to the observed changes.
deforestationtropics
extra-tropics
CO2
flux (
Pg C
y-1)
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
1.4
2000-2008PgC
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
CO2
flux (
Pg C
y-1)
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
7.7
1.4
2000-2008PgC
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
CO2
flux (
Pg C
y-1)
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
atmospheric CO2
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
7.7
1.4
4.1
2000-2008PgC
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
atmospheric CO2
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
ocean
CO2
flux (
Pg C
y-1)
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
7.7
1.4
4.1
2.3 (4 models)
2000-2008PgC
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.7
1.4
4.1
3.0 (5 models)
2000-2008PgC
CO2
flux (
PgC
y-1)
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2.3 (4 models)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.7
1.4
4.1
3.0 (5 models)
2000-2008PgC
CO2
flux (
PgC
y-1)
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
0.3 Residual
2.3 (4 models)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008)
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, updated
1.4 PgC y-1
+7.7 PgC y-1
3.0 PgC y-1
29%
4.1 PgC y-1
45%
26%2.3 PgC y-1
Global Carbon Project 2009
• The efficiency of the natural sinks has being declining over the last 60 years, a trend not fully captured by climate models.
• The human perturbation of the carbon cycle continues to grow strongly and track the most carbon intensive scenarios of the IPCC. The economic crisis will likely have a transitional impact on the growth of CO2 emissions and a undetectable effect on the growth of atmospheric CO2 (because the much larger inter-annual variability of the natural sinks).
Conclusions
• Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Houghton RA (2009) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions in Africa. Biogeosciences 6: 463-468.
• International Monetary Fund (2009) World economic outlook. October 2009.• http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/index.htm• Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the
sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689.• Marland G, Hamal K, Jonas M (2009) How uncertain are estimates of CO2
emissions. Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7.• Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global
climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42, 1401-1407.• Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal
variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613.
• Sitch S, Huntigford C, Gedney N et al. (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 1–25, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x.
• van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Giglio L, Collatz GL, Kasibhatla PS, Arellano AF, Jr (2006) Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6: 3423–3441.
References cited in this ppt
www.globalcarbonproject.org