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Breakfast News 'Is it time to make a more meaningful connection?' 5 March
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Transcript of Breakfast News 'Is it time to make a more meaningful connection?' 5 March
#BNews15
Thursday 5 March
Is it time to make a more meaningful connection?
Thursday 30 April
Gen Z
Thursday 25 June
Youth Marketing
Thursday 17 September
Challenges when onboarding Millennials
Thursday 26 November
Conclusive Research 2015 dates
#BNews15
How do we calculate our index?We ask students two questions:
1. How long do you think it will take
you to find your first graduate
job?
2. How many applications do you
think you’ll have to make?
We then use their answers to produce
our Confidence Index scores.
Last year we reported on
student confidence levels at
every Breakfast News event.
This year we’re doing it
again… but bigger and better.
#BNews15
The overall confidence of UK studentsQuarter 1 – redesigned for 2015
The new Confidence Index scale:What does an ‘average’
confidence score mean in
2015?
Number of job
applications:
22Months to find
employment:
5
120
160
80
100
40
AVERAGE confidence
More confident than average
“I’ll get a job in five minutes.”
Less confident than average
“Help.”
#BNews15
Confidence levels 2015: key demographic findings
There’s only a small disparity
between male and female
confidence levels this quarter
Finalists are feeling
good about their
chances this
quarter – quite a
contrast to last
June!
102
FresherFinalist2nd year
100 10199100
#BNews15
Confidence analysis: social mobility
Our social mobility
analysis shows an
astoundingly
consistent pattern of
confidence:
Disadvantaged
social group = one
point below average
confidence
99 99 99
State
educated
101
Privately
educated
101 101
Parents
went to uni
Parents
didn’t go to
uni
Receives
means-tested
funding
No
funding
#BNews15
The UK trendence graduate barometer 2015 provided all of the data
for this quarter’s Confidence Index
44,000
27,04023,045
Our biggest sample ever:
Our sample includes:
and more...
Diversity cuts
126 Universities
Gender cuts:
42% male
58% female
Social profile:
Privately educated
State educated
Ethnicity:
White
Asian
Black/African
/Caribbean
IT students
Specialist editions:
First Years
Penultimate Years
Finalists
Subject
of
study
Engineering students
Law students
#BNews15
Our record research sample
19,000 in Business/related (+34%)
16,200 in Engineering (+92%)
3,306 in IT (+93%)
5,604 in Law (+30%)
University growth
Top 30 unis: 28,377 54%
Success stories
Oxbridge: 2,606 20%
Edinburgh: 2,060 396%
Liverpool: 1,667 132%
#BNews15
A series of career products and services to support school leavers plan their professional career
path via university, higher apprenticeship or school leaver scheme
• Leveraging over 25 years of producing careers advice products and services for the graduate market
• Meeting the growing need for career advice for 15 to 18 year olds
• Following detailed research through the trendence School Leaver Barometer and the parental influence
report, focus groups and feedback from key stakeholders
More to come in 2015. Keep up to date at targetcareers.co.uk or follow @group_gti
#BNews15
We are filling seats
from the front – to buy
tickets or a table go to
targetjobsawards.co.uk
or talk to Grace Banks
#BNews15
Today’s Agenda
Is it time to make a more meaningful connection?
Welcome Simon Rogers
The economic forecast Declan Curry, Broadcaster, Business & Economics journalist
Inspiring through purpose Kate Robertson, Global President & UK Group Chairman, Havas Worldwide, Co-founder of One Young World
Preparing for the millennialsStephen Isherwood, CEO, AGR
Are they ready? Rt. Hon David Blunkett MP
#BNews15
DEFLATION LOOMING IN UK ?
• CPI Consumer Prices: 0.3% Jan ‘15
TARGET: 2.0%
was 0.5% Dec ’14
was 4.2% in 2012
… lowest ever CPI figure on this measure
… falling food, fuel & petrol prices
… expected to turn negative by April
#BNews15
WHY ARE PRICES FALLING?
• Brent crude: $59.2 per barrel
DOWN 46% in a year
WAS $145 per barrel in July 2008
Stronger £ vs € makes European food cheaper:
• £1 = €1.30; up 7.8% on prev year
• BUT: £1 = US$ 1.51; DOWN 8.1% on year
#BNews15
EUROPE DEFLATING ALREADY
• Euro-using nations HICP: -0.2% Dec ‘14
TARGET HICP: +2.0%
• Germany HICP: +0.1% Dec ’14
• Greece HICP: -2.5% Dec ’14
• USA HICP: +0.9% Nov ’14
• G7: +1.3% Nov ‘14
• OECD: +1.5% Nov ‘14
#BNews15
GETTING RICH V. SLOWLY
% change from same period in previous year:
• UK avg wages: +1.7% Sept-Nov y/y
WAS: +1.4% Aug-Oct
(Inflation = +1.2%; wages overtake prices at last !!)
• Private weekly total pay: +2.1% Sept-Nov y/y
• Public weekly total pay: +0.7% Sept-Nov y/y
#BNews15
EVEN MORE NEW JOBS
• 30.90 million people in paid work: Oct-Dec ‘14
WAS: 30.80 million : Sept-Nov ’14
• 608,000 new jobs over previous year
• Employment rate: 73.2%
joint highest since records started in 1971
#BNews15
JOBS FOR ALL AGES
(3 mth period September – November 2014)
(% change on previous year)
• 16-24 year olds: +2.2%
• 25-49 year olds: +1.4%
• 50-64 year olds: +5.0%
• Over 65s: +1.9%
#BNews15
QUALITY OF JOBS
(3 mth period September – November 2014)
• Full time jobs: 22.52 million
UP 42,000 on qtr
• Part time jobs: 8.28 million
DOWN SLIGHTLY
• 1.32 million part-timers would like full-time jobs
• Fewer than 3% of jobs are zero-hours contracts
#BNews15
UNEMPLOYMENT
• 1.86 million people unemployed: Oct-Dec ‘14
DOWN: 486,000 from previous year
• Unemployment rate: 5.7%
• Youth unemployment DOWN 188,000 over year
• Rate down from 19.9 to 16.2%
#BNews15
GROWTH
• UK GDP: +0.5% Q4 ’14
was: +0.7% Q3 ‘14
… slowed slightly, but reviving already
• Avg independent fcst: +2.6% 2014
• Avg independent fcst: +2.6% 2015
#BNews15
WHAT’S GROWING ?
• Manufacturing: + 0.1% Q4 ’14
WAS: +0.3% Q3 ‘14
• Construction (shrinking): - 1.8% Q4 ’14
WAS: +1.6% Q3 ‘14
• Services: + 0.8% Q4 ’14
WAS: +0.8% Q3 ‘14
(Services = 79% of economic output; 83% of jobs)
#BNews15
INTERNATIONAL GROWTH
• USA: +2.7% yearly Q3 ’14
• UK: +2.6% yearly Q3 ’14
… (NB: UK overtook USA in Q4)
• G7 (7 biggest industrials): +1.6% yearly Q3 ’14
• Germany: +1.2% yearly Q3 ’14
• Euro-using nations: +0.8% yearly Q3 ’14
• Japan: -1.2% yearly Q3 ’14
#BNews15
OECD GROWTH FORECASTS
• USA: +3.1% 2015
• UK: +2.7% 2015
• Germany: +1.1% 2015
• Euro-using nations: +1.1% 2015
(Europe growing, but weak; driven by Germany)
• Japan: +0.8% 2015
(Japan out of recession again …)
#BNews15
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
• House prices: increases slowing …
+6.8% a year – Nationwide (Jan ‘15)
+9.9% a year – Halifax (Jan ‘15)
• Retail sales:
up 2.3% in a year (using 3-month rolling avg)
WATCH ! impact of Black Friday
grocers squeezed hard by falling food prices
#BNews15
GLOOM STARTS TO CLEAR ?
• Business confidence: positive but fragile
more manuf expect output to rise, not fall
but CBI survey down 6 points in a year
• Consumer confidence: finally positive
GFK NOP survey up 8 points in a year
… but will election dampen confidence ?
#BNews15
GOVERNMENT DEBT
New yearly loans:
• 2014/15 deficit (PSNB): £91 billion (fcast)
WAS: £153 billion 2009/10
Accumulated debt mountain:
• 2014/15 net debt: £1,489 billion (fcast)
= 80.4% of GDP
…. Still “no money left”.
#BNews15
Kate Robertson, Global President & UK Group Chairman, Havas Worldwide, Co-founder of One Young World
INSPIRING
THROUGH
PURPOSE
#BNews15
Graduate vacancy changes
11.9%
4.3%
4.3%
-8.2%
1.7%
8.9%
-8.9%
0.6%
12.7%
5.1%
5.1%
15.5%
-3.4%
-6.5%
14.6%
14.7%
2015 (predicted)
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
#BNews15
Unfilled vacancies by sector5.4%
11.8%
11.1%
7.7%
7.3%
5.9%
5.9%
4.8%
3.9%
3.4%
2.8%
2.7%
1.4%
1.4%
3.7%
All employers
IT/Telecommunications
Energy, water or utility…
Construction company or…
Consulting or business…
Law firm
Insurance company
Accountancy or…
Public sector
Engineering or industrial…
FMCG company
Retail
Banking or financial services
Investment bank or fund…
Other
#BNews15
Unfilled vacancies by sector5.4%
11.8%
11.1%
7.7%
7.3%
5.9%
5.9%
4.8%
3.9%
3.4%
2.8%
2.7%
1.4%
1.4%
3.7%
All employers
IT/Telecommunications
Energy, water or utility…
Construction company or…
Consulting or business…
Law firm
Insurance company
Accountancy or…
Public sector
Engineering or industrial…
FMCG company
Retail
Banking or financial services
Investment bank or fund…
Other
#BNews15
Only 45% of employers
confident they will find enough highly skilled employees in the
future
Source: CBI report ‘Tomorrow’s Growth’
#BNews15
ILM guide to managing millennialsCommunication
Organisations can help equip graduates and managers with the skills to communicate more effectively with each other. Regular, open conversations about expectations and ambitions, and how better to align these to the role and organisation, will go someway to bridging the disconnect between managers and graduates.
Empowerment and autonomy
Graduates are fiercely independent and do not want to be closely managed. Employers have an opportunity to evolve their management models and find ways of giving greater autonomy to graduates, while retaining best practice elements such as objective setting and performance feedback. They must encourage and enable leaders to manage the person, not the task.
Coach rather than manage
The current generation of graduates want to be coached rather than controlled and directed: 56% of graduates want their manager to be their coach. But while three quarters of managers believe they are a coach, only one quarter of graduates agree. There is a clear opportunity for organisations to invest in learning and development to help managers develop their coaching skills.
Manage career expectations
Organisations can improve the way that they manage graduate expectations about career, salary and status. Managers may need targeted learning and development to help them achieve this. For their part, graduates should be realistic about the prospects of early advancement, and be willing to work with managers to find a mutually satisfactory solution.
The benefit of experience
The research findings suggest that Generation Y graduates would benefit from more work experience prior to taking on a full-timeposition. Finding ways to include elements of real world practical application and work experience into degree programmes is an issue that needs to be addressed by both higher education and employers.