abcd

Brazil Equity StrategyPart 1

Marcelo Mesquitamarcelo.mesquita@ubsw.com5521 2555 3333

Marcio Britomarcio.brito@ubsw.com

5521 2555 3031

Companies mentioned and disclosures on page 25

April 11, 2003

abcd 2

Summary UBSW Market view:

— Short-term (until May) Positive: Lula building credibility and a majority in Congress; details of structural reforms. (Our view: 15,000 Ibovespa; FX less volatile around 3.3)

— Medium-term (May to Dec.) Neutral/Positive: Implementation risks (Congress and State controlled companies hard to manage?). Two scenarios: 15,000 to 20,000 range Ibovespa at 3.3 FX (if reforms approved) or 10,000 at 4.0 (no reforms and non-market oriented management).

— Long-term (next 2 to 4 years): Drivers are “2004 Municipal elections” and “Twin Deficit performance” (primary fiscal surplus and current account). That will set parameter for Lula’s actions and ability to control Congress (approving reforms).Bull case (25,000 at 3.3). Bear case (10,000 at 4.5)

Best stocks (“domestic plays”, “winners of stronger Real”, “higher betas with low debt”): Petrobras, Sabesp, Brasil Telecom, Telemar, Eletrobras, Unibanco, Ambev, Gerdau, CCR.

Avoid: high financial leverage and low pricing power.

abcd 3

Already in the official agenda: (1) Social

Security (fiscal+efficiency) (2) Tax

Reform (boost exports+efficiency+maybe fiscal) (3) Central Bank

independence (expectations) (4) New Labour law

(incentive to hire officially) (5) New bankrupcy

law (reduce banking spreads)

To be included later in the agenda ? (6) FTAA

(Mexico convergence case, fiscal+trade) (7) Judiciary

reform (efficiency + costs). (8) Political Reform

(better representation=efficiency) (9) Privatisation

(gencos + water, fiscal, FDI)

The necessary agenda of Structural Reforms:

abcd 4

Toward equilibrium, not collapse…

The good news:

(1) Congress and institutions are now a strong

anchor; (2) The floating exchange rate is working and is a consensus; (3) Companies and individuals in Brazil have low leverage; (4) The Fiscal Responsibility Law works

(5) The IMF agreement (Primary fiscal

surplus targets) (6) The PT wants to be re-elected.

Main risks:

(1) The world should remain hostile for how long?

(2) The new economic team is crucial(3) Implementation risk at “micro”

level (4) Debt dynamics still hard to handle without structural reforms

abcd 5

60% chance “slowly in the correct direction” (inflation?)

30% chance “happy ending” (Lula better than Cardoso)

10% chance “default” (if capital controls necessary)

(60% x 16,000) + (30% x 25,000) + (10% x 10,000) = 18,100?

Global: (1) When the US recovery starts (timing of War)? (2) impact on commodity prices (Oil) and volumes

exported, (3) impact on FDI, global credit and global equity risk premium.

Local: (1) How far can selic rates fall (with and without Structural Reforms)? (2) Where the real exchange rate must be to generate at least US$ 15 billion trade surplus?

Our scenarios and the difficult questions:

abcd 6

“Normal times” = 600 to 800 bp Brazil Risk

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

Dez/

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Fev/

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Poin

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2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Embi Ibovespa

abcd 7

IBOVESPA CURRENT PRICE: 11, 626Upside Potential: 36.6%

Bottom-up approach: 15,882 points (12m) possible

Source:Broadcast, UBS Warburg

prices as March 27, 2003

10.0% upside used for Restricted or Not Rated companies

Company Rating UBSW TargetPotential Upside /

DownsideStake Latest Price UBSW Coverage

IBOVESPA 15,882.69 36.6% 11,626.00

Telecom 42.33% 40.44%

Telemar PN Neutral 2 41.0 42.4% 14.29% 28.80 14.29%

Globocabo PN NR 0.6 83.3% 1.39% 0.30 0.00%

Embratel PN Reduce 2 2.6 -29.5% 4.55% 3.69 4.55%

Telesp Celular Part PN Buy 2 7.4 67.8% 4.86% 4.41 4.86%

Brasil Telecom Par. PN Buy 2 36.0 86.5% 2.76% 19.30 2.76%

Embratel ON Reduce 2 2.6 -41.3% 0.90% 4.43 0.90%

Telemar ON Neutral 2 41.0 100.8% 1.08% 20.42 1.08%

Tele Centro Oeste Cel PNBuy 2 9.4 70.0% 2.25% 5.53 2.25%

Brasil Telecom Par. ON Buy 2 36.0 140.8% 0.55% 14.95 0.55%

Telepar PN Buy 2 26.7 140.3% 2.23% 11.11 2.23%

Tele Celular Sul PN Neutral 2 (under review) 3.2 10.0% 0.92% 2.30 0.92%

Tele Nordeste Cel PN Neutral 2 (under review) 3.3 42.9% 1.08% 2.31 1.08%

Telemar N L Buy 2 68.0 70.9% 1.81% 39.80 1.81%

Telemig Celular Part PN Neutral 2 (under review) 3.8 44.4% 1.21% 2.66 1.21%

Tele Leste Celular PN NR 0.5 10.0% 0.50% 0.44 0.00%

Tele Celular Sul ON Neutral 2 (under review) 3.2 10.0% 0.44% 2.49 0.44%

CRT Celular PNA Neutral 2 (under review) 470.0 45.7% 0.67% 322.50 0.67%

Telesp PN Neutral 2 41.0 29.3% 0.84% 31.70 0.84%

Utilities 12.51% 6.31%

Eletrobras PNB NR 24.9 10.0% 3.48% 22.66 0.00%

Cemig PN Buy 2 (under review) 35.0 27.7% 2.92% 27.36 2.92%

Eletrobras ON NR 22.1 10.0% 1.02% 20.10 0.00%

Copel PNB Buy 2 14.4 68.1% 1.26% 8.56 1.26%

Celesc PNB NR 0.5 10.0% 0.44% 0.45 0.00%

Cesp PN NR 6.9 10.0% 0.43% 6.25 0.00%

Sabesp ON Buy 2 126.0 41.3% 1.16% 89.15 1.16%

Light ON Reduce 2 (under review) 33.0 27.0% 0.11% 25.97 0.11%

Transmissao Paulista PN NR 6.8 10.0% 0.48% 6.18 0.00%

Eletropaulo PN Buy 2 37.5 61.4% 0.74% 23.24 0.74%

Tractebel ON NR 4.4 1.4% 0.35% 4.30 0.00%

Cemig ON Buy 2 (under review) 35.0 65.6% 0.12% 21.11 0.12%

Oil 12.69% 12.51%

Petrobras PN Buy 2 67.0 44.7% 9.52% 46.31 9.52%

Petrobras ON Buy 2 67.0 32.8% 2.99% 50.46 2.99%

Ipiranga Petroleo PN NR 8.0 10.0% 0.19% 7.25 0.00%

Mining 3.46% 2.40%

CVRD PNA Buy 2 142.0 60.8% 2.40% 88.30 2.40%

CVRD ON NR 100.7 10.0% 1.06% 91.50 0.00%

Steel 6.74% 6.05%

Acesita PN NR 1.3 10.0% 0.69% 1.20 0.00%

Usiminas PNA Neutral 2 (under review) 8.5 -5.9% 1.89% 9.03 1.89%

CST PN Buy 2 59.0 28.3% 0.73% 46.00 0.73%

CSN ON Neutral 2 75.0 13.1% 2.16% 66.31 2.16%

Gerdau PN Neutral 2 36.0 17.6% 1.26% 30.60 1.26%

Forest Products 1.57% 1.22%

Aracruz PNB Neutral 1 (under review) 9.0 36.2% 0.66% 6.61 0.66%

Klabin PN NR 1.2 -37.8% 0.35% 1.93 0.00%

VCP PN Buy 2 175.0 10.0% 0.56% 120.49 0.56%

Chemicals 0.29% 0.00%

Braskem PNA NR 259.6 10.0% 0.29% 236.00 0.00%

Banks 13.28% 8.51%

Bradesco PN Neutral 2 13.0 14.0% 6.29% 11.40 6.29%

Itaubanco PN NR 232.0 27.7% 4.16% 181.70 0.00%

Bradespar PN NR 0.7 10.0% 0.61% 0.65 0.00%

Banco do Brasil ON Neutral 2 (under review) 12.0 4.4% 2.21% 11.49 2.21%

Industrial (Diversified) 2.50% 2.50%

Embraer ON Neutral 2 13.0 44.4% 0.53% 9.00 0.53%

Embraer PN Neutral 2 13.0 21.8% 1.97% 10.67 1.97%

Conglomerates 1.78% 0.00%

Itausa PN NR 2.4 10.0% 1.78% 2.16 0.00%

Beverages 1.78% 1.78%

Ambev PN Buy 2 962.0 72.1% 1.78% 559.00 1.78%

Tobacco 0.82% 0.82%

Souza Cruz ON Neutral 2 21.0 13.2% 0.82% 18.55 0.82%

Gas 0.26% 0.00%

Comgas PNA NR 57.2 10.0% 0.26% 52.00 0.00%

Total 100.00% 82.53%

abcd 8

Brazil vs. Global (valuation and profitability)

Source:UBS Warburg; (1) As of March 21, 2003; (2) Based on 2003 estimated figures.

Valuation Profitability and GrowthP/E (x)

P/CF (x)

EV/EBIT (x)EV/OpFCF (x)

EV/EBTIDA (x)

Brazil LATAM Emerging Global

ROE (%)

ROIC (%)

EBIT margin (%)EPS Growth (%)

FCF Yield (%)

Brazil LATAM Emerging Global

P/E (x) P/CF (x) EV/EBIT (x) EV/OpFCF (x) EV/EBTIDA (x)Brazil 5.80 3.40 4.50 3.90 3.20 LATAM 8.10 4.20 6.10 5.20 4.20 Emerging 8.70 4.70 6.90 5.90 4.50 Global 14.30 7.80 11.50 9.90 7.00 Discount to Global (%) 59.4% 56.4% 60.9% 60.6% 54.3%

ROE (%) ROIC (%) EBIT margin (%) EPS Growth (%) FCF Yield (%)Brazil 18.00 23.00 26.80 207.00 20.30 LATAM 15.90 20.10 23.60 110.50 14.00 Emerging 13.80 17.90 17.20 34.40 7.90 Global 12.60 13.70 10.30 29.80 5.20 Premium to Global (%) 42.9% 67.9% 160.2% 594.6% 290.4%

abcd 9

Equity is now “cheap” relative to debtEMBI BR Spread x Ibovespa

(Constant Prices IGP-DI)

Source: Tendências, Economatica and UBS Warburg; (1) Figures as of March 27, 2003.

Assuming current country risk is “correct”, the

Ibovespa should be around 19,224 points

At 750 bp: Ibovespa target at 22,192

At current levels, each 100bp change in country

risk implies in some 1,468 points for Ibovespa; but

At 700bp, each 100bp change in country risk

implies in some 1,955 points for Ibovespa

EMBI BR Spread x Ibovespa (Constant Prices IPCA)

Assuming current country risk is “correct”,

Ibovespa should be around 16,338 points.

At 750 bp: Ibovespa target at 18,686

At current levels, each 100bp change in country

risk implies in some 1,160 points for Ibovespa; but

at 700bp, each 100bp change in country risk

implies in some 1,547 points for Ibovespa

y = -13665Ln(x) + 112656

R2 = 0.7481

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Last point:Ibovespa = 11,778SoT = 932

y = -10809Ln(x) + 90241

R2 = 0.7677

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Last point:Ibovespa = 11,778SoT = 932

abcd 10

“Yield Gap” implying no growth of earnings

P/E vs. EMBI Spread EV/EBITDA vs. EMBI Spread

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%05

-Oct

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Earnings Yield G27 Yield

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

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6.0%

05-O

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Debt Yield (Global 27) vs. Earnings

Yield

Necessary Growth Rates to Justify Equity Risk Premium of 4.5%

Source: Tendências, MCM, Economatica and UBS Warburg; (1) Figures as of February 20, 2003.

y = -5.8838Ln(x) + 50.21

R2 = 0.4809

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Last point:P/E =5.17xSoT = 958

y = -3.0307Ln(x) + 25.495

R2 = 0.7625

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Last point:EV/EBITDA = 3.39SoT = 958

abcd 11

Bond vs. Earnings Yields: now favouring equities

Source: (1) Hurdle rate calculated assuming a required equity risk premium of 5%; (2) Using Earnings and OpFCF in US$ estimated for 2003; (3) Using average prices (bid, ask) to calculated bond yields; (4) Price and Market Cap. figures in US$ as of March 20, 2003.

Company Bond BondYield

Earnings

Yield

OpFCF

Yield

EY

Dif.

OpFCF Y

Dif.

Value Creation (1)

(Earnings)

Value Creation (1)

(OpFCF)

BRAZIL Brazil 04 11.625% 10.08% 16% 27% 6% 17% 1% 12%

BRAZIL Brazil 10 12% 14.26% 16% 27% 2% 13% -3% 8%

Petrobras Petrobras 06 10% 8.31% 43% 33% 34% 25% 29% 20%

Eletrobras Eletrobras 05 12% 13.59% 35% 30% 21% 16% 16% 11%

CSN CSN 04 9.5% 9.22% 27% 17% 17% 8% 12% 3%

Banco do Brasil Brasil 07 9.375% 11.19% 25% 25% 14% 14% 9% 9%

Unibanco Unibanco 04 6% 4.83% 18% 18% 13% 13% 8% 8%

CVRD CVRD 04 10% 4.68% 13% 18% 9% 14% 4% 9%

Bradesco Bradesco 04 5.875% 5.32% 14% 14% 8% 8% 3% 3%

Itau Itau 05 6.75% 6.75% 14% 14% 7% 7% 2% 2%

Sabesp Sabesp 05 10% 14.65% 16% 21% 1% 6% -4% 1%

Ambev Ambev 11 8.73% PRI 10.49% 11% 15% 0% 4% -5% -1%

Ambev 11 8.73% PRI

Sabesp 05 10%Itau 05 6.75%Bradesco 04 5.875%

CVRD 04 10%

Unibanco 04 6%

Brasil 07 9.375%CSN 04 9.5%

Eletrobras 05 12%

Petrobras 06 10%

Brazil 10 12%Brazil 04 11.625%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00%

Bond Yield

Ear

nin

gs

Yie

ld

Hurdle Rate

Ambev 11 8.73% PRI

Sabesp 05 10%

Itau 05 6.75%Bradesco 04 5.875%

CVRD 04 10%

Unibanco 04 6%

Brasil 07 9.375%

CSN 04 9.5%

Eletrobras 05 12%

Petrobras 06 10%

Brazil 10 12%Brazil 04 11.625%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00%

Bond Yield

Op

FC

F Y

ield

Hurdle Rate

abcd 12

4Q02 Earnings Wrap-up: worse than expected...

Source:Company Balance Sheets, UBS Warburg; (1) Figures in R$ million.

Sector Market Cap.EBITDA

4Q02 to 3Q02EBITDA 4Q02A

EBITDA 4Q02E

EBITDA 4Q01A

EBITDA 3Q02A

A/E (%)

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

Aerospace 6,164 Better 951 817 327 675 16.4 190.9 40.9 Banks, Ex-S&L 50,363 - - - - - - - - Building Materials 639 In Line 61 65 50 58 (6.2) 20.9 5.2 Chemicals, Commodity 1,590 Worse 140.0 157.0 90.4 160.1 (10.8) 54.9 (12.6) Distillers & Brewers 21,271 Better 1,122 1,062 742 671 5.6 51.2 67.1 Electric Utilities 13,113 Worse (11.8) 2,665.8 4,190.6 2,630.3 (100.4) (100.3) (100.5) Fixed-Line Communications 49,252 In Line 5,988 6,199 4,484 6,204 (3.4) 33.5 (3.5) Food Products 1,255 Worse 179.0 218.0 271.4 209.0 (17.9) (34.1) (14.4) Food Retailers & Wholesalers 5,150 Better 212 235 178 175 (9.8) 19.3 21.3 I ndustrial Services 624 In Line 128.0 128.0 167.0 125.6 - (23.4) 1.9 Mining 1,674 Better 248 217 148 200 14.3 67.4 23.7 Oil Companies, Secondary 53,958 Worse 4,526.0 7,566.0 3,195.0 5,714.0 (40.2) 41.7 (20.8) Paper Products 15,836 Better 1,387 1,268 621 1,098 9.4 123.6 26.4 Steel 5,684 In Line 1,082.4 629.0 393.4 1,103.7 72.1 175.1 (1.9) Tobacco 5,686 Better 350 331 200 285 5.7 74.9 22.8 Water Utilities 2,324 In Line 463.0 512.0 499.1 480.6 (9.6) (7.2) (3.7) Wireless Communications 10,916 In Line 1,036.6 963.1 815.6 1,014.1 7.6 27.1 2.2

Brazil 245,500 Worse 17,862 23,033 16,373 20,804 (22.5) 9.1 (14.1)

Brazil ex- Petrobras and Eletrobras 181,486 In Line 13,349 13,348 10,557 12,913 0.0 26.5 3.4

Sector Market Cap.Net Income

4Q02 to 3Q02Net Income

4Q02ANet Income

4Q02ENet Income

4Q01ANet Income

3Q02AA/E (%)

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

Aerospace 6,164 Better 649 620 291 189 4.7 122.8 242.9 Banks, Ex-S&L 50,363 In Line 2,280.7 1,882.7 1,424.8 2,250.6 21.1 60.1 1.3 Building Materials 639 Worse 20 26 (3) 25 (23.1) (863.9) (19.4) Chemicals, Commodity 1,590 Better 108.0 90.0 24.9 47.6 20.0 333.7 126.9 Distillers & Brewers 21,271 Worse 431 230 179 497 87.4 141.2 (13.4) Electric Utilities 13,113 Worse (3,078.4) 550.8 1,013.6 2,679.1 (658.8) (403.7) (214.9) Fixed-Line Communications 49,252 Worse 1,162 1,701 1,115 (385) (31.7) 4.2 (401.7) Food Products 1,255 Better 98.0 110.0 126.1 71.8 (10.9) (22.3) 36.4 Food Retailers & Wholesalers 5,150 Better 102 99 116 36 3.0 (11.8) 181.5 I ndustrial Services 624 Worse 89.0 50.0 66.5 (151.1) 78.0 33.8 (158.9) Mining 1,674 Better (292) 171 21 (1) (270.8) (1,470.1) 26,041.5 Oil Companies, Secondary 53,958 Better 2,828.0 5,402.0 2,823.0 2,368.0 (47.6) 0.2 19.4 Paper Products 15,836 Worse 1,059 720 266 (597) 47.0 297.8 (277.2) Steel 5,684 Better 370.7 312.0 204.7 262.3 18.8 81.1 41.3 Tobacco 5,686 Worse 187 254 66 358 (26.4) 181.5 (47.7) Water Utilities 2,324 Worse 231.0 231.0 518.5 (663.6) - (55.4) (134.8) Wireless Communications 10,916 Worse (342) 174 (350) 56 (296.4) (2.4) (709.0)

Brazil 245,500 Worse 5,903 12,623 7,904 7,043 (53.2) (25.3) (16.2)

Brazil ex- Petrobras and Eletrobras 181,486 Better 5,987 7,006 5,238 1,309 (14.5) 14.3 357.4

abcd 13

US$ Ibovespa: a history of Political Cycles

US$ 3,692

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

WTC Attack

Electricity rationing starts

Thailand crisis

Asia crisis

Russia crisis

Real devaluationArminio Fraga

Selic rates fall and locals go to equities

Collor FHC 1 FHC 2ItamarSarney Lula

abcd 14

Historical Multiples (52w forward EV/EBITDA)

Source:Bloomberg, UBS Warburg; Updated as of April 9, 2003

(1) These multiples were calculated using figures in Dollars (US$)

0.0x

1.0x

2.0x

3.0x

4.0x

5.0x

6.0x

7.0x

8.0x

9.0x

Jan-

98

Apr-

98

Jul-9

8

Oct

-98

Dec

-98

Apr-

99

Jul-9

9

Sep-

99

Dec

-99

Mar

-00

Jun-

00

Sep-

00

Dec

-00

Mar

-01

Jun-

01

Sep-

01

Dec

-01

Mar

-02

Jun-

02

Sep-

02

Dec

-02

Mar

-03

Jan99

Floating of the Real

Sep 2001

WTC Attacks

Jun 2001

Electricity Crisis

Russia crisis

Arminio Fraga assumes

the Central Bank

Selic rates felll

and locals go to equities

abcd 15

Historical and relative EV/EBITDA by Sector

Historic EV/EBITDA by Sector

Source: UBS Warburg; (1) Multiples based in figures in Reais (R$); (2) Calculated using 52 weeks forward estimates.

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Utilities Energy Telecom UBSW Universe Consumer Basic Materials Industrial

EV/E

BIT

DA

(x)

AverageCurrent

Current EV/EBITDA (52w fwd) by Sector Minimum, Maximum, Average and Current EV/EBITDA

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

2-Ja

n-97

2-Ap

r-97

2-Ju

l-97

2-O

ct-97

2-Ja

n-98

2-Ap

r-98

2-Ju

l-98

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l-99

2-O

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l-00

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ct-01

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n-02

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2-Ju

l-02

2-O

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2-Ja

n-03

EV/E

BITD

A (x

)

UBSW Universe Basic Materials Consumer Energy Industrial Telecom Utilities

5.1

3.8

3.2

3.0

2.7

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Consumer

Utilities

Brazil

Basic Materials

Telecommunications

abcd

For part 2, please Continuation please find on next icon