Boulder County Market Update

MARKET UPDATEBoulder County

· Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes· Trends in Pricing· Current Levels of Supply and Demand· Value Metrics

· Report for the week ofNovember 30, 2009

· Presented by Anthony KnightTRG National Titlewww.positiveangles.wordpress.com - [email protected]

BOULDER, CO

Powered by Altos Research LLC | www.altosresearch.com | Copyright © 2005-2009 Altos Research LLC

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

17.6

Percent Relisted (reset DOM)

3036

3.0

3 %

Median Number of Bathrooms

199

Inventory of Properties Listed

$ 272

Percent Flip (price increased)

0.25 - 0.50 acre

Median House Size (sq ft)

$ 749,000

36 %

4.0

Market Action Index

Median Number of Bedrooms

Asking Price Per Square Foot

9 %

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease

Strong Buyer's

≠≠

≠≠

≠≠

==

==

Altos Research Value Statistics

Most Expensive Listing

Average Days on Market (DoM)

Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First

This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" By measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.

Supply and Demand

Characteristics per Quartile

13 65371

1953.0 40

3.0

0

233

4.0 29

165

2

2

0.25 - 0.50acre

32

$ 649,000

1

0

30

5.0

0.25 - 0.50acre

54.0

1976 6,501 -8,000 sqft

29

$ 439,500

4.0

202

0.50 - 1.0acre$ 999,000

4.0$ 2,250,000

26

3

3876

Inventory has been lightening latelyand the Market Action Index has beentrending up. Though days-on-marketis increasing, these are mildly positiveindications for the market.

Monday November 30, 2009

Anthony Knight | 303-475-8075

29

2400

3.0

The median list price in BOULDER, COthis week is $749,000. The 117properties have been on the marketfor an average of 199 days.

Most expensive 25% of properties

Upper-middle 25% of properties

Lower-middle 25% of properties

Least expensive 25% of properties

Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.

No change

Strong upward trend Strong downward trend

Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+

== ≠≠

≠=

BOULDER, COCity Overview

Least Expensive Listing

Average List Price

Average Age of Listing

117

$ 5,295,000

$ 239,900

$ 1,151,769

36

Trend Key:

Home sales have been exceedingnew inventory for several weeks.While still a Buyer's market, pricesseem to have responded by movingupward. If the demand trendscontinue, expect prices to keepmarching upward, especially oncewe see a Seller's Market.

of 31


City OverviewBOULDER, CO


Median PriceAgain this week in this zip code we see a downward notch for prices. Pricing has been weak in recent weeks and versus theirabsolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leadingindicator for a trough in prices.

90-day Average7-day Average

Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see the upper-half of the market (Quartiles 1 and 2) in this zip code showing weaknessrecently while the lower-half prices have remained strong. Quartiles 3 and 4 have been increasing in the last few weeks. Theseconvergent trends cannot continue indefinitely, so look to the Market Action Index Quartile breakdown to see which group willchange direction.

First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom

of 31




Price per Square FootThe market's downward trends are shared across both price and value. People are recently placing less value on homes (you cansee the recent declines in price per square foot as evidence.) Look for significant changes in the Market Action Index as aprecursor to price and value changes, possibly as inflection points for good investment opportunities.


Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.


of 31




Market Action IndexThe BOULDER market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Indexstands at 17.60. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.

Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average

Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels ofdemand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.


Buyers/Sellers Cutoff

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized byanalyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’s Advantagezone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates a blance between supply and demand using a statistical function of thecurrent rate of sale versus current inventory.

of 31




Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 199 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 161 or so days.


Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.


of 31

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

17.2


2999

3.0

0 %


201


$ 213


0.25 - 0.50 acre


$ 504,500

36 %

4.0

Market Action Index



14 %


Strong Buyer's

≠≠

≠≠

≠≠

==

≠≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


13 06238

1983.0 18

3.5

1

254

4.0 4

102

0

1

not available

28

$ 483,450

0

0

4

6.0

0.25 - 0.50acre

03.0

2134 0.25 - 0.50acre

3

$ 387,450

4.0

282

8,001 -10,000 sqft$ 630,000

4.0$ 1,999,000

31

0

2952

Inventory has been decreasing latelybut the Market Action Index is fallingalso. With days-on-market climbing,these are relatively negativeimplications for the market.



3

2957

3.0

The median list price in BOULDER, CO80301 this week is $504,500. The 14properties have been on the marketfor an average of 201 days.






No change



== ≠≠

≠=

BOULDER, CO80301

Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


14

$ 2,199,000

$ 365,000

$ 806,629

23

Trend Key:

Home sales have been exceedingnew inventory for several weeks.However because of excessinventory, prices have not yetstopped falling. Should the salestrend continue, expect prices tolevel off soon and potentially toresume their climb from there.Watch prices as the markettransitions from a Buyer's market toa Seller's market.

of 31


Neighborhood DetailBOULDER, CO

80301


Median PricePrices in this zip code have been on a downward trend recently and this week, while essentially flat, doesn't break us out of thatcycle.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see the market's price weakness almost across the board. Prices in Quartile 4 have beenmixed recently, while the rest of the market is trending downward. Look for a strong, persistent up shift in the Market ActionIndex as a leading indicator of the trough in the market.


of 31



80301






of 31



80301


Market Action IndexThe BOULDER, 80301 market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market ActionIndex stands at 17.22. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.







of 31



80301






of 31

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

14.1


3201

3.5

5 %


164


$ 315


0.25 - 0.50 acre


$ 887,000

40 %

4.0

Market Action Index



2 %


Strong Buyer's

==

≠≠

≠≠

≠≠

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


12 25143

2313.0 30

3.0

2

178

4.0 11

78

0

0

0.25 - 0.50acre

45

$ 753,900

0

0

11

5.0

0.25 - 0.50acre

24.0

1692 4,501 -6,500 sqft

10

$ 519,900

4.0

171

0.25 - 0.50acre$ 1,112,500

4.5$ 2,100,000

28

0

3910

Demand measured by the MarketAction Index is increasing and days-on-market is trending downward.Even as more properties comeavailable, these are positive trendsfor the market.



10

2660

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=

BOULDER, CO80304

Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


42

$ 3,200,000

$ 239,900

$ 1,147,048

33

Trend Key:

Inventory levels have been relativelyconsistent relative to sales. Despitethe fact that there is a relativelyhigh amount of available inventory,this Buyer's market is still seeingprices move higher. Given inventorylevels, these price conditions arerelatively fragile. If the marketcools off further, the price trend islikely to reverse.

of 31



80304




Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see pricing in this zip code is lacking strong directional indication lately. Quartiles 1 and 3are up while Quartiles 2 and 4 are basically flat in recent weeks. Watch for persistent shifts in the Market Action Index for aleading indicator of stronger price moves in the market as a whole.


of 31



80304




Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been climbing lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the MarketAction Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.


of 31



80304









of 31



80304






of 31

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

15.4


2917

4.0

4 %


211


$ 254


0.50 - 1.0 acre


$ 680,000

33 %

4.0

Market Action Index



17 %


Strong Buyer's

≠≠

==

==

==

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


10 05372

1683.0 45

3.0

0

248

4.0 6

170

0

1

0.25 - 0.50acre

44

$ 609,450

0

0

6

5.0

1.0 - 2.5acres

03.5

2112 0.25 - 0.50acre

6

$ 412,825

4.5

257

not available$ 799,500

5.0$ 1,374,500

42

0

3650




6

2278

3.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=

BOULDER, CO80303

Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


24

$ 5,295,000

$ 279,900

$ 969,302

37

Trend Key:

The market has shown someevidence of slowing recently. Bothprices and inventory levels arerelatively unchanged in recentweeks. Watch the Market ActionIndex for changes as it can be aleading indicator for price changes.

of 31



80303


Median PriceIn this zip code this week saw relatively little price change from last week. However, we continue to demonstrate a nice uptrend in general over the last several weeks.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see prices in the individual quartiles not demonstrating strong directional correlationlately. Quartile 2 has been trending up recently, but unless we see a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index, it will likelyresume the trend of the rest of the market.


of 31



80303


Price per Square FootThe market appears to be placing an increasing premium on homes. When list prices and price per square foot consistentlyincrease in tandem, as they're doing now, you can often find short-term investment opportunities. Watch the Market ActionIndex for persistent changes as a leading indicator for these trends to flatten or drop.




of 31



80303









of 31



80303






of 31

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

18.2


3496

3.0

0 %


217


$ 333


0.25 - 0.50 acre


$ 872,000

30 %

4.0

Market Action Index



10 %


Strong Buyer's

≠≠

==

==

≠≠

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


46 05425

1223.0 40

3.0

0

302

4.0 8

257

0

1

0.50 - 1.0acre

31

$ 674,500

0

0

8

5.0

8,001 -10,000 sqft

34.0

1593 1.0 - 2.5acres

7

$ 399,950

4.0

195

0.25 - 0.50acre$ 1,495,000

5.0$ 2,700,000

12

0

4332

Inventory is tightening and days-on-market is falling. The Market ActionIndex shows demand heating up.These are relatively bullish signs forprices.



7

2394

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=

BOULDER, CO80302

Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


30

$ 4,750,000

$ 345,000

$ 1,446,137

47

Trend Key:

Home sales have been exceedingnew inventory for several weeks.While still a Buyer's market, pricesseem to have responded by movingupward. If the demand trendscontinue, expect prices to keepmarching upward, especially oncewe see a Seller's Market.

of 31



80302


Median PriceDespite this week's down tic, price trends in this zip code have generally been moving up lately. We are below the market's highpoint, and we'll investigate the Market Action Index later on to see if we expect this week's blip to become a downward trend.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see the upper-half of the market (Quartiles 1 and 2) in this zip code showing weaknessrecently while the lower-half prices have remained strong. Quartiles 3 and 4 have been increasing in the last few weeks. Theseconvergent trends cannot continue indefinitely, so look to the Market Action Index Quartile breakdown to see which group willchange direction.


of 31



80302


Price per Square FootThe market appears to be placing an increasing premium on homes. When list prices and price per square foot consistentlyincrease in tandem, as they're doing now, you can often find short-term investment opportunities. Watch the Market ActionIndex for persistent changes as a leading indicator for these trends to flatten or drop.




of 31



80302









of 31



80302






of 31

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

15.9


2709

3.0

14 %


265


$ 311


0.25 - 0.50 acre


$ 749,000

43 %

4.0

Market Action Index



14 %


Strong Buyer's

≠≠

≠≠

≠≠

==

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


9 14519

3543.0 46

3.5

0

378

4.0 2

144

0

1

0.25 - 0.50acre

34

$ 699,500

0

0

2

6.0

0.25 - 0.50acre

23.0

1768 4,501 -6,500 sqft

2

$ 482,400

4.5

105

0.50 - 1.0acre$ 1,698,500

4.0$ 2,880,000

40

2

4831




1

2576

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=

BOULDER, CO80305

Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


7

$ 2,880,000

$ 394,900

$ 1,234,400

36

Trend Key:

Inventory levels have been relativelyconsistent relative to sales. Despitethe fact that there is a relativelyhigh amount of available inventory,this Buyer's market is still seeingprices move higher. Given inventorylevels, these price conditions arerelatively fragile. If the marketcools off further, the price trend islikely to reverse.

of 31



80305




Quartile PricesNot surprisingly, given the condition of the overall market, all quartiles have shown price strength in recent weeks. All havebeen increasing in price lately. Watch for a persistent decline in the Market Action Index as a leading indicator for the top of themarket.


of 31



80305






of 31



80305









of 31



80305






of 31

Boulder County Market Update

Business

Transcript of Boulder County Market Update