Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)
-
Upload
lucinda-andrews -
Category
Documents
-
view
212 -
download
0
Transcript of Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)
![Page 1: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Border Economy July 2015
Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)
![Page 2: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2Page2
What we will cover
1. Show how the lower currency and interest rates that accompany the fading mining investment boom are shifting growth back toward the big SE States.
2. Lower currency helps manufacturing and tourism compete better after several hard years and lifts farm incomes – all important in the Border region
3. Lower interest rates is boosting housing markets, construction and consumer spending on household goods – but so far the big property price and constructions gains concentrated in metro areas, waiting to see more spill-over into regions of the State’s economy and focus of growth on metro fringe
4. Increased provision of public services in key regional centres also helps Albury-Wodonga – key medical facilities for surrounding regions ageing population, cultural assets like new Art Gallery for tourists/locals
5. Border NSW region badly needs job growth – area of high unemployment and until recently employment had been failing to grow.
![Page 3: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3Page3
Regional pattern of growth shifting in the nation
Growth set to pick up in Australia – 2.4% in 2014/15, 2.6% in 2015/16, 3% in 2016/17
Regional pattern shifting as mining boom fades and low interest rate and weaker $A boost activity in the big SE States – which had been
underperformers till recently.
WA and Queensland hit by falling commodity prices and downturn in mining investment – export volume ramp–up under way but not many jobs there
Low interest rates boosting housing market, construction and that is spilling over into increased demand for household goods.
Weaker $A helping manufacturing and tourism to compete better against imports and overseas destinations as well as to lift exports
![Page 4: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4Page4
3 phase mining cycle explains a lot of Australia’s economic situation
Phase 1 – Price boom Phase 2 Investment surge Phase 3 – exports ramp-up
![Page 5: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5Page5
Growth already rotating away from mining States to SE Metropolitan States
![Page 6: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6Page6
Business investment explains the intra-State difference – mining boom fades and NSW pick up
![Page 7: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7Page7
Bigger pick up in jobless rate in mining than in SE States but jobless rates now turning down
![Page 8: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8Page8
Growth shortfall between SE Metro States and Australian GDP forecast to narrow or close
![Page 9: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9Page9
Consumer and housing driving most of the upturn in NSW economy
![Page 10: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10Page10
Consumption also a key factor driving growth in Victoria
![Page 11: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11Page11
Border region well placed to do better in new macro-economic environment
Lower $ help lift farm incomes and competitiveness of manufacturing and services
Lower interest rates give a boost to construction and consumption
Solid population growth in Sydney and Melbourne boosting size of consumer and business market in adjacent metro areas
(freight, tourism, consumer demand, building)
![Page 12: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12Page12
(1) Lower $A helping activity in the region
• Around 75% of the 502 firms who replied to the August 2014 Albury-Wodonga business survey felt that the $A had no impact on their operations
• But it might be more important than people think! – via indirect channels
• (1) Local incomes that are spent in the community - consequences for incomes and spending of the big farm export sector on the Border (Murray region over $1½ Billion, Riverina $2 Billion, NE Victoria $½ Billion)
• (2) Impact on the competitive position of manufacturing sector – hit by low cost imports and need to be price competitive overseas when the $A was so high – but offsetting effect via lower costs for imported inputs and machinery.
• (3) Encourage more tourists to travel domestically rather than overseas - $A210 million in domestic overnight travel and A$21 Million international spending in 2013 – already a big industry.
![Page 13: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13Page13
$A depreciated a lot against $US and RMB but much less against other big currencies
NAB Currency ForecastsUS$ Euro Yen NZD RMB
Dec-15 0.72 0.69 90 1.16 4.5Jun-16 0.71 0.69 89.5 1.18 4.5Dec-16 0.73 0.69 92.7 1.18 4.6Jun-16 0.75 0.69 93.8 1.17 4.7Dec-16 0.76 0.68 93.5 1.15 4.8
![Page 14: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14Page14
(a) Manufacturing - $A depreciation finally delivers boost to competitiveness of Australian industry
![Page 15: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15Page15
High $A took Australian industry’s labour costs above those in US, Japan, much of W Europe
![Page 16: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16Page16
Profits squeezed in manufacturing, food and oil dominate earnings, big sectors loss making
![Page 17: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17Page17
Manufacturing sector shrinks as imports squeeze out local producers and high $A hits exports
![Page 18: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18Page18
Official view that mineral prices would stay historically high – writing off some manufacturing?
Repeated cutbacks in Treasury forecasts
![Page 19: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19Page19
Look at Border Region Economy - The wedding cake structure of regional economies
Regional Victorian economies follow a 3 tier wedding cake pattern
Need a sector to inject income from outside the region for sustained income growth – can’t just deliver pizzas to each other and relying on inflow of taxes from other regions leaves you vulnerable to spending
cutbacks – local private sector has to generate sustained income
Public sector services – based on population and age structure (health, education, police)
Private sector services based on commodity, tourism, industry income and public funds (retail,
legal, accountancy, transport)
Commodity sector, tourism, industry, public sector spending (eg defence bases)
Competitiveness of commodity price takers
Competitiveness of service sector
SMEs
1
2
3
Tier 1 vital, holds up whole economic structure – look at commodities, industry
![Page 20: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20Page20
Employment solid in NE Victoria, Border NSW starting to lift after a long weak patch
![Page 21: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21Page21
ABS Statistical regions in Victoria - Regional areas (SA 4)
![Page 22: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22Page22
Services dominate Border employment, helps understand why so many firms downplay $’s role
![Page 23: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23Page23
And reliance on service jobs has been increasing as local industrial base has eroded
![Page 24: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24Page24
Border region manufacturing sector shrinking – lower $A will help it compete
Still major manufacturing plants in region
• processing local raw materials (Uncle Toby oats, Kiewa milk, Uncle Bens meat, Myrtleford plywood mill
• Important presence of big corporations – Mars, Nestle, Murray Goulburn, Carter Holt
Story of Borg Warner Drivetrain shows what can go wrong
• 1250 staff at peak in early 1980s
• Bought by Chinese group Geely and shut after chequered history,
• technology transferred to 3 new plants in China, its gearboxes were world famous
• Lost valuable source of well paid jobs, training and skill development in border region – how many apprentices learned their trade there?
![Page 25: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25Page25
Albury newsprint mill shows disciplines involved by globalisation – lower $A help competitive position
Albury newsprint mill among the worlds best
Product demand falling, low Asian prices
Series of mill closures around globe (Walsum)
Weaker $A helps support the plant
Boyer mill partly converted to magazine paper
Helped Oceania financial results
Scope for another conversion from newsprint to magazine paper – still importing 150 kts pa
![Page 26: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26Page26
Manufacturing sectors losing ground are often very high productivity sectors, growing ones not
![Page 27: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27Page27
Much lower average earnings in the fast growing service sectors too than in contracting industry
![Page 28: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28Page28
Impact of shift from high to low productivity jobs evident in the Victorian growth model
![Page 29: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29Page29
Lower $A will boost returns for big diverse farm export sector in Border Region
![Page 30: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30Page30
Riverina broadacre farm incomes high by historic standards even before latest price increases
![Page 31: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31Page31
Surge in grain incomes underpinned rise in Riverina real broadacre farm cash incomes
![Page 32: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32Page32
Surge in cattle prices plus high meat and wool markets lift farm incomes
![Page 33: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33Page33
(2) Lower interest rates feed into property market, construction and consumption
• Policy interest rates cut to historic low of 2% in May – as RBA seeks to lift growth to offset headwind of fading mining boom
• We see rates staying down for a long time as little inflation pressure, first rate rise probably not until the very end of 2016
• Retail business and mortgage lending rates down too
• Triggers upturn in housing lending, house prices, construction and retail sales of household goods
• Upturn in dwelling construction concentrated in metro regions – apartments, especially multi-story complexes located in central cities, role of investors
• Population growth focussed on Albury-Wodonga and different migration pattern – helps support housing demand
• Still waiting to see big impact outside metro regions on property prices
![Page 34: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34Page34
RBA cuts cash rate to record low 2%, retail lending rates fall to 4½%-6½% range
![Page 35: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35Page35
Lower interest rates starting to work – borrowing picking up as people start new projects
![Page 36: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36Page36
Sydney house prices the standout, regions softer. Albury market picked up, many other towns flat
![Page 37: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37Page37
Housing investors trading existing stock driving much of the housing market rather than new builds
![Page 38: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38Page38
Surge in dwelling approvals in apartments, rivals house approval numbers in Victoria
![Page 39: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
39Page39
Multi-story apartments account for big share of dwelling upturn in NSW and Victoria
![Page 40: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40Page40
Seen upturn in NSW retail sales of discretionary (non-food) lines since early 2013
![Page 41: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41Page41
Jump in NSW retail sales of housing-related products – to put into all those new dwellings
![Page 42: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
42Page42
Three quarters of NSW/Victorian building activity concentrated in two State capitals
![Page 43: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
43Page43
And the growth is also concentrated in the two capitals
![Page 44: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
44Page44
Concentration of apartments in central Melbourne, new house building more regionally dispersed
![Page 45: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
45Page45
Concentration of commercial building in central Melbourne
![Page 46: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
46Page46
But Albury-Wodonga better position that most places to generage an upturn in building
![Page 47: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
47Page47
Albury different migration to other Border regions – retains people to age 25, then loses them
![Page 48: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
48Page48
But there has been growth in Albury-Wodonga region too for housing approvals
![Page 49: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
49Page49
As well as growth in commercial property sector on the Border
![Page 50: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
50Page50
(3) Importance of Albury-Wodonga as regional service centre set to keep growing – 5000+ staff
Albury Wodonga health over 2000 staff, wage bill of $116 million, staff costs of
$220 million, revenue of $230 million – a major local business
![Page 51: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
51Page51
Rise in government spending as people age – especially on health care – demand rises
Incidence of chronic disease by age group in Australia 2011/12Age Cardio-disease Heart disease Stroke Diabetes Chronic kidney disease
18-44 6.6 0.4 0.2 1.4 5.545-54 20.6 1.8 0.9 5.3 5.655-64 33.7 4.9 2.2 8.7 7.965-74 50.6 9.9 5 15.6 20.975+ 11.1
85+ 15.264.2 17.2 12.7 42.1
Health care costs rise faster than CPI
Health costs rise as population ages
![Page 52: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
52Page52
Ageing profiles already evident in many Border sub-regions – Alpine and Indigo
![Page 53: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
53Page53
And Towong Shire has same forecast population ageing pattern but Wodonga Shire differs a bit
![Page 54: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
54Page54
More ageing forecast across region – heading towards 20% aged 70+, 10% are 80+, 5% are 85+
NE Victoria
![Page 55: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
55Page55
Population ageing forecast to continue in NSW Border Shires
Southern NSW
![Page 56: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
56Page56
Border region needs the boost from lower $ and rates plus healthcare jobs – badly needs more jobs
• Policy interest rates cut to historic low of 2% in May – as RBA seeks to lift growth to offset headwind of fading mining boom
• We see rates staying down for a long time as little inflation pressure, first rate rise probably not until the very end of 2016
• Retail business and mortgage lending rates down too
• Triggers upturn in housing lending, house prices, construction and retail sales of household goods
• Upturn in dwelling construction concentrated in metro regions – apartments, especially multi-story complexes located in central cities, role of investors
• Population growth focussed on Albury-Wodonga and different migration pattern – helps support housing demand
• Lift in Border NSW employment after flat period, has high jobless rate
![Page 57: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
57Page57
Slowdown in job creation hits Border Region after mid-2000s, especially full time males
![Page 58: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
58Page58
Employment solid in NE Victoria, Border NSW starting to lift after a long weak patch
![Page 59: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
59Page59
Lift in jobs in Murray concentrated in full time male jobs, highest earning group – spending power
![Page 60: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
60Page60
Albury accounts for over half of the Murray region – so figures should represent region trends
![Page 61: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
61Page61
Very important to see this job growth in Border NSW as region has high jobless rate
![Page 62: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
62Page62
Albury jobless rate usually region’s highest but has surged recently to double digit levels
![Page 63: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
63Page63
Conclusion
• Australian economy re-balancing away from mining States and back to SE metro States as
1. lower $A boosts farm export incomes and restores some of the competitiveness lost in manufacturing and tourism during the mining boom
2. lower interest rates boost property values, building and retail sales of household goods
3. Growth in health care and education continues and most people live in the SE
• Albury-Wodonga centrally located in SE States and well placed to benefit from this
1. Big diverse regional farm sector gets higher incomes, boost regional sending power
2. Help local industry export and compete vs imports (eg overseas holidays cost more)
3. Regional centre for service provision – hospitals, university, arts
• Most of boost to property and building focused on metro centres, waiting to see more spillover into regional property prices and building activity
• Border needs the lift – high jobless rate and poor record of job creation in Murray region, finally seeing job recovery
![Page 64: Border Economy July 2015 Tom Taylor – Head of International Economics (NAB)](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110402/56649e545503460f94b4b340/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Important information
DISCLAIMER: “[While care has been taken in preparing this material,] National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937) does not warrant or represent that the information, recommendations, opinions or conclusions contained in this document (“Information”) are accurate, reliable, complete or current. The Information has been prepared for dissemination to professional investors for information purposes only and any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance. The Information does not purport to contain all matters relevant to any particular investment or financial instrument and all statements as to future matters are not guaranteed to be accurate. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the Information should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the Information and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate professionals or experts.To the extent permissible by law, the National shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the Information or for any loss or damage suffered by persons who use or rely on such Information (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise). If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, the National limits its liability to the re-supply of the Information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. The National, its affiliates and employees may hold a position or act as a price maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed within this document or act as an underwriter, placement agent, adviser or lender to such issuer.”