BookBuilderTM 30sep16

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September 2016 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.

Defending Your Capital

BookBuilder™ is about Simply Keeping It, Yours

30 September 2016 Update

Our BookBuilderTM portfolios aim at building the children's education fund so they do not leave

school burdened like a borax mule with vitality sapping debt. Build your own deal book. Run your

online trading income account with our “likeables” because you need "to save your own bacon."

Several quarters in a row now, the ‘professional’ portfolio managers

have shown they are confused, do not know. It is proverbial to learn

and gain wisdom, Proverbs 8:5 in fact, but provably the portfolio

management class have no wisdom, only their confusion1. The real

story is in brute methods of pension, insurance, ETFs and mutual

funds managers. They blinked and lost $trillions of your money, not

theirs. Your money, they put up for grabs in their zero-sum bubble2.

Their confusion and indiscretion costs you dearly, again and again.

Fight their foolishness. Fend for yourself. Use our charity portfolios with our proprietary ‘likeables’

information to help you. Stoploss sets allow safety. Buy back at less than the stoploss and greater

than SF. Hold’em is the best strategy when market movers play goofy, ‘Ain’t Mis-behavin’

Wink’n, Blink’n and Naughty. Their reaction to externalities is wild gossip they ply on each other.

Balance sheet fundamentals of ‘likeable’ firms more slowly change. The Great Rotation was a burst

bubble of Quantitative Eating created by the ‘market makers’ confusion3. China only slipped to 6%

growth. Even India’s median income is now 20% higher than Russians (non-Oligarchs). There are a

lot more joining the muddle class world. We cannot afford more ‘externality’ that is fossil fueled

pollution at our ‘commons’ expense as China used to grow, or others want for their GDP, not yours.

BookBuilder™ is about Simply Keeping It, Yours. Keeping it yours is your intention when you

save. We enable you to build value. Build your own deal book in your online trading account to

keep your capital safe and grow wealthy. Keep your money, obtain a hopeful return. Keep it yours.

The financial products industry covets spending your savings for themselves. They do

not see your pocket as their restraint, rather their opportunity. These Artful Dodgers

are just skilled pick-pockets, in suits they bought with your cash. Avoid these ‘Goats’

that come to just eat your grass, graze your wallet, and leave4. Do not loan them your

pocket-book on empty promises they have never delivered. Avoid these traps laid by

financial products conspiring to artfully exploit the small investor of hard-won

savings. Don’t give them your wallet. “Save your own bacon."

"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803

What investors expect of financial products is a way to secure their hard earned savings while

growing their wealth. The circularity of ‘investment talk’ is what Alice gets at the Tea Party.

“Take some more tea,” the March Hare said to Alice very earnestly.

“I’ve had nothing yet,” Alice replied in an offended tone: “so I ca’n’t take more.”

“You mean you ca’n’t take less,” said the Hatter: “it’s very easy to take more than nothing.”

Pretty much, they have taken it all before you arrived. “Alice, meet Dr. Artful Dodger.”

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Holding on to the value of what you have created is fundamental. Ancient wisdom is the feast we

enjoy today will not be on our table tomorrow. You know that. You work earn save and build

hopeful for future when you can do what is in your heart and skills to do for yourself. Cash only has

a temporary value that time erodes. Cash is powerful only when it is engaged in business processes

creating more wealth, adding value. Cash must stay invested to hold and grow, adding value,

earning an income. Invest with ‘likeables’ for your income and build your wealth for your future

You want to keep what you have saved, earn some income on it. Wall Street pillages your wallet.

That is their job, they say, making markets and venture capital loans by running your money. You

want your capital safe earning income hopefully above inflation. Wall Street disclaims talk about

your earning income. Their job is selling risk, to you, and they’re good at selling risk5 for their fees.

The Finance Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) industry just burns your money. You want to keep

your money, hopefully, gain an income, above the corrosive rate of inflation. But, what can the

small investor do with $5,000? With our ‘likeables’ we show, because, we can.

Our ‘likeables’ stocks portfolios do this while being risk averse. The full history of trades made in

these charity portfolios in real time is shown. Our charity portfolios are proof of long term gain!

The Risk Price is our benchmark measure against the share price. It is our fundamental arbiter in

segregating the B-class of firms6 worthy of investment. The $toploss settings we publish for these

public portfolios should do the job of saving equity from serious harm due to market gossip induced

volatility. We shun the likely rude wealth takers, the N-class, that are not ‘likeables.’ We very

reasonably analyse balance sheets to identify and shun those doppelgängers of corporate fiction.

BookBuilder™ portfolios are of just our lowest cost ‘likeables’ our methods identify. Because we

can, our proprietary information is given freely in charity to enable small investors to keep their

savings growing into their wealth. Our method is proven in long term portfolios earnings

consistently exceeding inflation. Grow your earned savings for children’s tuition, nest building or

retirement income. Because you need to “save your own bacon" run your online trading account.

Our calculated Risk Price (SF) is provably the least stock price at which the company is “likeable”

so we can use “risk aversion”. Equities trading above our SF benchmark Risk Price are those

investors tend to like. Two of three continue to rise due investors’ behaviour. These are ‘likeables’

revealed by their Risk Price. This is based on new theory we prove works in the real world.

By using the mean 52 week price range to set the $topLoss on each, usually, the ‘laggards’ will be

cut before they damage capital safety. With gossip driven market bursting bubbles we narrowed

that ratio to avoid damage from persisting downside volatility fund managers made.They do not

know value, or which way to turn. By knowing firm worth the Risk Price is a bottom reference we

can also exit and buy-back at a lower price to recover. Then continue making substantial gains as

markets rebound. This is what we do when using the more active “collaring options7” to profitably

buy lower or exit. By reinvesting cash to capital your portfolio grows wealth through the long term

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while remaining "as good as cash” liquid whenever time comes you need some cash from dividends

earned in your income portfolio. Patient risk aversion for long term gain, that is new.

Throughout the immediate two years confused portfolio managers moved the massive holdings8

they claim in your name on news and gossip churn they and their confrere’s make-up. They are like

the Mock Turtle “only took the regular courses” but they have no proof. Volatility they and their

confreres make “surprising news” because they never know where they are9. Convictions they have,

and plenty more10 are now finally indicted, but no reasons can they offer. No help for you comes

from them, just their litigation bill, you pay costs of their business. Those Artful Dodgers’ baseless

gambling with your money always pays them first, for their ‘reasons’ that do not help you.

Their rumours ping-pong nervous and unsure. They did not read or connect dots even when told,

Taper-talk fear was hot-air volatility11 tales, ‘fat-tails’ wagging dogs gossip. The ‘dollar per word’

market mavens floated on Quantitative Eating. Yeah, the Fed said rates will rise when they see

‘full’ employment, but, business innovation has not risen. “No crisis, no trades, no fees.”

The “Brexit’ crisis was about politicians in search of their income. Then they left the woes behind,

as, Boris blinked and Nigel nodded out without a programme to ‘fix-it’ as Jocks, Jordies and Taffs

consider taking a walk and deconstruct the rest. The `Brexit` panic of fund managers was unusual

causing their “I don`t know nothin’ ‘bout birth and babies” reaction triggering stoploss markers.

The ‘Grexit’ crisis extends back to British, Dutch, French and German banks pursuing high profits

in derivative backed loans, in 2007. IMF and ECB took over those loans to save those banks €214

Bn loses on their risky business. By law, the public is liable for Public Liab ility Corporations

(PLC) defaults, as greatest of unsecured creditors. Which public, whose pockets pay for bank folly,

is the political question. FSB is sending bankers back to the Medieval Diet of 50 years ago, high

reserves and bland fees12 when C-suite managers got six times a day labourer wage, not 300 times.

Austerity hangs everyone out to dry. Even before Keynes, US President Herbert Hoover in 1931

proposed international financial debt moratorium to fight the Great Depression. It was bank

management failure of due diligence in creating unwarranted credit bubble margin lending crashed

the liquidity needed for sound businesses of society that made ‘Hoovervilles’. Mellon partisan

politicking saved bankers their balance sheets at greater public expense for PLC defaults. Demand

grows economies. The business process creates ‘new money’ among its trading connections by

adding value, cash flows, covering debt carried. That is capitalism. Business Schools miss that.

Cash must be engaged in effective business processes to gain from value added by valiant business

ideas people and enterprises. Cash on balance sheets should be allocated to serve creating new

demand and innovation creating jobs in the real economy as consumers spend and demand.

Managers using QE cashroll for buying-in shares is an austerity measure that just helps them to

share-package cash bonuses, not shareholders13, or growing business trading connections creating

worth. Despite long evident small but strong real growth, capitalization in jobs by innovation has

lagged, along with political leadership overwrought on fugitive tales from their dog-walkers.

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All 4 of StockTakers NYSE charity portfolios had doubled in less than 3 years on that ‘swell’ of

Quantitative Eating, then suffered the downturn of maven confusion14. Like surfers we rise up from

the trough and ride below the crest. As our public charity portfolios show our reasoned ‘likeables’

analysis of firms managing their business debt structure is proven method. We prove by doing.

We call that proof, evidence our method tends to 26% IRR gains. Those were outlier results in

mixed markets confused by conventions, newspeak, jargon and aphorisms of the confused that do

not know, and will not bother to learn. This past year the ‘small beer’ froth blow off shows the real

economy steady and slow, but still far ahead of population growth, in three-fold GDP growth ratio.

We show our risk averse, capital safe, liquid ‘likeables’ investing based on Risk Price works, very

likably. All the gossip and volatility the ‘dollar-per-word’ market mavens have mumbled is their

business model ‘news’ for your trading. Those mavens whacked markets setback the August 2014

portfolios, just as in Q1-2013, trimming our outlier results. ‘Be Calm and Carry-on’ $toploss resets

ride out market waves mavens make. Our simple risk averse $toploss does well for the long term.

Cash is powerful only when invested as capital to hold and grow value, adding to your wealth. Let

others chase the gamblers’ risk/reward model that does not work. So called “financial advisors” at

financial institutions are risk sellers, Capital Appreciation Robbers, CAR sellers of ‘funky chicken’

products for fee-taking, leaving none for you. Do not give those Artful Dodgers your wallet

Less risk for more reward sounds unusual but our ‘likeables’ prove risk aversion is rewarded. Our

proprietary information given in charity empowers small investors to “save your own bacon.” But

you can be charitable. Consider paying-forward our charity by donating our usual 2&20 fee to

social charity. Good social and corporate works deserve15 your help building society’s wealth.

We seek accredited investors to advance what we have proven. Meanwhile enjoy our charity

providing TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios as our public service, because we can. Use

our proprietary ‘likeables’ information for the small investor to save your own bacon. Set the

$topLosses indicated and get on with earning income from your business you know best. Expand

your portfolio. You are ready for riding through more waves from comic behaviours in politics

infused market gossip. Grow your wallet, ride those waves. You know how to work and save, so

“save your own bacon” with our ‘likeables.’ Accredited investors should use our 12% bond16.

BookBuilderTM Portfolios Update List – 30 September 2016

NYSE BookBuilderTM ‘likeables’ Firms (30 November 2012)

Market

Price

Symbol SF (Risk Price)

Stop/Loss

(See prior posts for early trading history)

Buy-ins 29feb16 *100 shares each

Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc. ($8.2 stopLoss 24jun16) ACHN 2 5.9

First Horizon National Corp. ($13.6 stopLoss 14jun16) FHN:US 10 14.3

Gannett Company Inc. ($14.2 stopLoss 24jun16) GCI:US 12 10.2

Himax Technologies Inc. ($10.0 stopLoss 20apr16) HIMX:US 7 7.6

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-corporate-social-on-our-best

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Logitech International S.A. ($14.5 stopLoss 19may16) LOGI 8 20.2

Annaly Capital Management Incorporated 10.5 NLY 10 10.1

Wendys International Inc. ($9.6 stopLoss 16jun16) WEN:US 9 10.3

Buy-ins 31mar16 *100 shares each

Sirius XM Radio Inc. ($3.8 stopLoss 07apr16) SIRI 4 4.0

Buy-ins 30apr16 *100 shares each

Cosan Limited 7.15 CZZ 2 6.2

MBIA Inc. ($6.8 stopLoss 16may16) MBI 6 7.0

Buy-ins 31may16 *100 shares each

KCG Holdings Inc. ($13.1 stopLoss 29jun16) KCG 11 14.3

MFA Financial Incorporated 7.48 MFA 7 7.1

Buy-ins 30jun16 *100 shares each

Achillion Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 8.10 ACHN 2 5.9

Gannett Company Inc. ($11.5 stopLoss 09sep16) 11.50 GCI:US 12 10.2

Himax Technologies Incorporated 8.59 HIMX 7 7.6

International Game Technology 24.38 IGT 15 21.9

Two Harbors Investment Corporation 8.53 TWO 8 7.8

Windstream Corp 10.05 WIN 6 8.4

NYSE BookBuilderTM 2012 Portfolio *100 Shares (incl. Dividendsª) 30 September 2016 / 30 November 2012

10431.70 /5460.00 Gain 44.0

months 91.06%

IRR pa 18.40%

Net Cash Forward * 100 (after buy-ins 30apr16) 104.00

Net Cash * 100 (after stoploss sales) 1150.00

Net Current Cash Forward * 100 1254.00

Buy-ins 30sep16 *100 shares each

SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

Ford Motor Co. 12.07 F 12 11.2

Net Cash Forward * 100 (after no buy-ins 31oct15) 47.00

Cash Dividends earned 522.70

Total Cash Available

569.70

NYSE BookBuilderTM 2012 Portfolio *100 Shares (incl. Dividendsª) 30 September 2016 / 30 November 2012

10431.70 /5460.00 Gain 44.0

months 91.06%

IRR pa 18.40%

Stop-loss settings intend to defend your capital from unusual negative market volatility in case of

such irrational market mavens’ pressures of Q3-2014 through Q1-2016. Irrationally volatile

swings occurred without regard for any reason, as stock prices sharply rebounded. Your capital

was defended by stoploss settings as intended but you must rebuild your portfolio with successive

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replacement buy-ins as shown. Staying in the market is the way to gain for the long term.

We had progressively tightened our stoploss settings to less than a standard deviation on a 52 week

rolling range17 of a stock’s price. That does incur an added ‘churn’ cost of buying after selling at

the triggered stoploss setting. That is a consequence of exercising capital safety. There are benefits

to doing that. Our ‘collaring options’ is preferred but takes our constant vigilance.

New NYSE 2013 Portfolio Buyins *100 shares (31 August 2013 )

4397.00


SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss


BAE Systems PLC ORD ($6.7 stopLoss 15jun16) BAESF:US 6 6.4

Frontier Comm. Corp. ($4.7 stopLoss 24jun16) FTR:US 5 3.5

Opko Health Incorporated 10.59 OPK 8 8.3

Sirius XM Radio Inc. ($3.8 stopLoss 07apr16) SIRI:NASDAQ 4 4.0

ShoreTel Inc. ($6.6 stopLoss 29apr16) SHOR 6 7.0

ZTE Corporation ADR (H Shares) ($2.8 stopLoss 05may16) ZTCOY:US 3 1.8


ARC Group Worldwide Incorporated 3.65 ARCW 2 0.9

Glencore Xstrata PLC ORD 2.75 GLCNF 2 1.8

ShoreTel Incorporated 8.00 SHOR 6 7.0


Advanced Micro Devices Inc. 6.91 AMD 4 5.6

SeaDrill Limited 2.37 SDRL 2 2.0


Sprint Nextel 6.63 S 3 5.7

Viavi Solutions Incorporated 7.39 VIAV 6 6.7

Buy-ins 31jul16 *100 shares each


VimpelCom Limited ADR 3.48 VIP 4 3.0

BookBuildersTM 2013 NYSE Current Portfolio (including dividendsª) 30 September 2016 / 31 August 2013

5588.50

/4397.00

Gain 37.0

months 127.10%

IRR pa 8.09%

This result is far less than our expected long term tendency. However, it is cause for celebratory

hats and horns, gaining 9.68% this month, a ’likeables’ tendency. This portfolio has gone through

18 months of volatile and negative market behaviour, more than half of its interval. This portfolio

has demonstrated resilience even using the less effective stoploss regime. We know our pursuit of

using options to collar exit or holds guided by the Risk Price is more lucrative.

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Over these thirty plus months this portfolio confounds the performance of the hedge funds. This

portfolio has proven stunningly better result for the small investor, is vastly better than any fund,

bond or mortgage product the financial industry offers and always is liquid for the small

investor needing access to use their own wealth to help themselves or dear ones when need arises.

Net Cash Forward * 100 shares 31jan16 Buy-ins 3.00

Net Cash * 100 (after $toploss) 0.00

Net Current Cash * 3.00


SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

n/a

Net Cash Forward * 100 (after buy-ins 30pra2016) 3.00



155.20

BookBuildersTM 2013 NYSE Current Portfolio (including dividendsª) 30 September 2016 / 31 August 2013

5588.50

/4397.00

Gain 37.0

months 127.10%

IRR pa 8.09% (Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)

Peoples United Financial Incorporated 15.82 PBCT:US 14 15.2

Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation 26.59 SWHC:US 20 22.6

Western Union Company 20.82 WU:US 16 19.6

BookBuildersTM New NYSE 2014 Portfolio Set 31 August 2014

4925.00


SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss




Astrotech Corporation 1.65 ASTC 2 1.2

Glencore Xstrata PLC ORD 2.75 GLCNF 2 1.8

Groupon Inc. 5.15 GRPN:US 3 3.9

Groupon Inc. 5.15 GRPN:US 3 3.9




Vale SA 5.5 VALE 3 4.6


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Ballard Power Systems Incorporated 2.21 BLDP 1 1.8

Banco Santander SA ADS 4.41 SAN 4 3.5

BookBuildersTM New NYSE 2014 Portfolio (including dividends*) 30 September 2016 / 31 August 2014

4397.00 /4925.00

Gain 25.0

months 89.28%

Net Cash Forward * 100 shares 31jan16 Buy-ins 62.00

Net Cash * 100 (after $toploss sales) 0.00

Net Current Cash 62.00


SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

n/a

Net Cash Forward * 100 (after buy-ins 31jan16) 62.00



152.00

BookBuildersTM New NYSE 2014 Portfolio (including dividends*) 30 September 2016 / 31 August 2014

4397.00 /4925.00

Gain 25.0

months 89.28%

Fund managers were sitting on your money to fumble and lose it in their ‘Great Rotation’ into

bonds, a churn which did freeze into ill-liquid lower interest, less than inflation now, to be

discounted more later, like now, when sold to regain liquidity. For this they claim fees. They win

twice, so you lose twice, in their zero-sum game of, ”no crisis, no trades, no fees.” The pool of low

price point range of ‘likeables’ had been much reduced, and now is slowly increasing in number.

This portfolio started August 2014 seems an unwelcome outlier, dogged by its group of low price

‘likeables’ in a highly negative volatility range. We stay in the market, to resist loss and wait for

the rebound, always liquid. This portfolio made a nice jump up the past two months but has a long

hill to climb back up but only staying in the market can make that climb. This outlier has gained

17.16% through this quarter, since the end of June – NYSE, 3.69%, nothing like that.

The biggest mis-call of the market gossips ‘sky fall’ volatility drive back to zero is missing that

world gross production still exceeds world population growth by a factor of 3. The world economy

is growing18. Consumers of high value added production remain consuming near 13 times more

than population growth in the Euro-American nations. That should be aligned if the world

economies were near stagnant. Gossip of weak consumer spending seem odd as mid-market store

sales revived. World GDP grew 0.7% first quarter, confirming outlook of 2.8% this year, NYSE is

out of touch with reality. “Price is not value,” confuses them19. ‘Likeables’ are about value.

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High value added production of Chinese (Indian Bengal Bay peninsula and Indonesian archipelago

and others are not far behind) workshops to the world still exceeds the population growth of high

income nations buying high value consumer goods by a factor of 13. The rising aspirations of a

middle class consuming high value goods is being felt worldwide not just in the G8 economies.

Chinese domestic consumption from its household formations is its own internal problem, while

households’ formation buying durable goods in the rest of the developing world is still rising.

These factors are driven by patents technology and money rents paid to leading Euro-American

corporations. The Euro-American consumers’ appetites expressed as their GDPs are still rising at

more than quintuple their rate of population growth though a seventh of the world. Durable goods

needed to supply new households forming in Europe for war refugees rebuilding lives and

opportunities will stimulate welcoming economies. Employment is rising there as lately reported.

The five thousand year rivalry of tribal fiefs in their plundering for Middle East booty regardless of

religious spurs will spoil over oil decline as fuel is overtaken by innovating entrepreneurship. The

finest individuals of those fractious intrigues have escaped servility to seek their individual agency

among the developed economies giving refuge for their energy and range. Those that do not return

will spur innovation and growth in the receiving nations. The Middle East will be permanently

denied the human resource agency ‘Arab Spring’ was about. The amiable educated and more able

with finer dispositions will stay in refuge nation’s safety. The belligerents with short views return.

The greatest export of the occident to the world is the inspiration of individual agency that lies at

the core of capitalism. We trade our time and treasure to build value with our trading connections.

The creature of democracy inverted elite’s social role. Elites have instituted corporatism as their

avatar where outright plunder cannot.

We embrace the innovative when acting to our better angels, because that which can be made to

work will enhance us all, and opportunity for the few ‘conniving cousins’ to skim. We grant our

finances and licence to the architects of future business in their promise and our expectation they

will enhance our expectations. That is what lies at the core of capitalism.

The flow of ‘credit float’ we express to build those dreams ‘raises all our boats’ and why we

created the fictitious person, the corporation, as a society bears as public liability the costs of its

failure as we enjoy its success and promise. We invest in the hopeful return of a future income

coming from that inspired act of highest charity, investment, just as Maimonides encouraged, that

we might gain strength to earn our own way through that endeavour. His truth is inspired in the

conflation of cultures cooperative co-existence in medieval times.

These fundamentals driving international trade and macroeconomics the gossips are blinded from

seeing by their conventions. However as one pundit said, politics is all local, so is conventional

vision of economics, plagued by not seeing the larger view. Volatility will settle as these notions

make their corrective impact until market gossips find some other sky falling. As another pundit

reminded, Stay Calm and Carry On. Stick to our knitting and climb back. By our community of

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effort dark times always diminish.

Engage “Likeables” and save your own bacon.

Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like risk aversion, Capital

Safety and Liquidity because we have proven that works, for low risk and high AlphaSmartTMgains.

For small savings it is needful but arbitrary you stock your portfolio from the low price-point end of

"likeables" found in the market. These “likeables” are used in the BookBuildersTM fitting criteria

for small investor portfolio needs. What is essential in your portfolios is that you buy a full

complement of at least eight or preferably more equities at any time. (We prefer equal blocks of

100 shares. That allows us 'collaring options' an aggressive exit strategy to maximize gains (instead

of passive stop-loss) as many “likeables” rebound so ‘collaring’ lets us hold through volatility and

earn more gains20).

Do not expect perfect of Risk Price. Tendency for gain is not the same as pin-the-point on the mule

as most claim, encourage or seek. That is just child’s play. Let others chase the gamblers’

risk/reward model temptation. It is how you play the market with better information of corporate

value creation of worth, that does matter. Risk Price is what investors need to know. Risk aversion

comes of a diverse range of our “likeables” in your portfolio. Our proprietary “likeables”

information allows small investors to save your own bacon.

TSX 2012 BookBuilder TM “Likeables”

Portfolio (set 30 November 2012)

Market

Price

Symbol SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss



Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. 12.21 AQN 9 10.9

Choice Properties REIT ($13.5 stopLoss 13sep16) 14.40 CHP.UN 10 13.0

Celestica Inc. ($13.0 stopLoss 06may16) CLS 10 12.8

Chartwell Snrs Hsg REIT ($14.7 stopLoss 16sep16) 15.86 CSH.UN 10 14.7

Guyana Goldfields Inc. ($7.7 stopLoss 25jul16) 7.70 GUY 3 6.6

Just Energy Group Inc. ($7.3 stopLoss 11aug16) 8.11 JE 6 5.8

Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. 11.15 KGI 6 9.7

NovaGold Resources Inc. ($7.7 stopLoss 22aug16) 9.08 NG 4 6.2


Atlantic Power Corporation 3.27 ATP 3 2.8

Eldorado Gold Corp. ($4.5 stopLoss 30aug16) 5.35 ELD.TO 4 4.0

NuVista Energy Ltd. 6.33 NVA 4 5.7


Lundin Mining Corporation 5.46 LUN 4 4.5

Western Forest Products Incorporated 2.14 WEF 1 1.9

.

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TSX 2012 BookBuilder TM Portfolio Value

(including dividendsª) 30 Sept. 2016 / 30 November 2012

9431.30 /6391.00 Gain 46.0

months 47.57%

IRR pa 10.68%

Net Current Cash after 31jan16 Buy-ins *100 shares 12.00

Net Cash * 100 (stoploss sales) 4770.00

Net Cash for Buy-ins *100 shares 4782.00


SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

Ballard Power Systems Incorporated 2.88 BLD 2 2.5

Heroux-Devtek Inc 13.16 HRX 9 11.7

Just Energy Group Inc. 6.65 JE 6 5.8

IAMGOLD Corporation 5.30 IMG.TO 2 4.3

Pengrowth Energy Corporation 7.33 NG 4 6.2

New Gold Inc. 5.69 NGD.TO 3 4.8

Silvercorp Metals Inc. 2.07 PGF 1 1.2

NovaGold Resources Inc. 4.19 SVM.TO 1 3.3

Net Current Cash after 31jul16 Buy-ins *100 shares 55.00



453.24

TSX 2012 BookBuilder TM Portfolio Value

(including dividendsª) 30 Sept. 2016 / 30 November 2012

9431.30 /6391.00 Gain 46.0

months 47.57%

IRR pa 10.68%

Removal of ‘Quantitative Eating’ combined with oil and gas bloat made unusual down-side

volatility in all markets these past 22 months. To fuel that, older Greece and newer China issues

and then ‘Brexit’ added spooky gossip, a ‘sea-change’ of stoplosses were triggered. Commodities

went underground for no reason as the real economy just shrugged and carried on. The stock

market is driven by ‘expectancy’ behaviours, too great and too little, swings and roundabouts.

Balance sheets did not flip-flop. Portfolio managers did. Their expectations are unrelated to

‘fundamentals’ of value investing21. Our tighter $toploss values reduced risk of loss. All of the

stocks in our public portfolios22 just rebounded. Most, still trading well above Risk Price can be

bought back for less. Take the ‘short-sell’ bonus and buy those back. We heard the ‘mooing’ as

higher employment spread through Europe due stagnant oil price; amid, Russian and Chinese

theatres of proxy conflict. Less gossip, more go-sip a tea on your break, gets things done, for you.

Collaring options we prefer using giving more gains but requires a lot more attention. Stoploss is

a simpler approach. Again we must rebuild for gain hopeful calmer markets will soon return.

Price has no mass - gravity like gossip fluctuates, apparently both being ‘dark energy’ forces.

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Political shift to fuller renewal of infrastructure is now at forefront with income equality. All the

‘canards’ and other ‘Daffy’ ‘Donalds’ walk the political stage of this season while the real

economy slowly inches recovery forward, absorbing those persons’ abuse of ‘credit float’ in the

sea of moral hazard they had created. Manager avatars like ‘Donald’ have much to account for, in

tax court, but, stiffing your trading connections? Is Boris the vanguard for 46% rise in London

child homelessness23 and the ‘Brexit’ policy? Well, Boris blinked and went without a programme

to ‘fix-it’ as Jocks, Jordies and Taffs consider their walking out of even the United Kingdom.

The reality that ‘treacle-down’ never worked is roosting, as much as, austerity is impoverishing

in hard times when innovation and investment are needed to ‘credit float’ warranted investment

in valiant business processes and enterprises in the real economy. Austerity drains ‘credit float’

from worthy enterprises as otherwise add worth and wealth in their business process, making

‘money’ to put in our pockets and allocate as we wish or save in ‘likeable’ equities hopeful of

gain. Cash is better ‘cached’ into capital-creating ‘likeables’ equities, adding worth for you.

New TSX 2013 Portfolio Buyins *100 shares Set 31 August 2013

6282.00


SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

Buy-ins 31jan16*100 shares each

ATS Automtn Tool Systems Inc. ($9.8 stopLoss 03feb16) ATA 11 8.1

Choice Properties REIT ($11.7 stopLoss 08feb16) CHP.UN 10 13.5

Chorus Aviation Inc. ($5.1 stopLoss 10feb16) CHR.B 5 0.0

Intertape Polymer Grp Inc. 21.07 ITP 15 19.2

Just Energy Group Inc. ($8.8 stopLoss 10feb16) JE 6 7.3

NovaGold Resources Inc. ($7.7 stopLoss 22aug16) 9.08 NG 4 7.7

Buy-ins 29feb16*100 shares each

Extendicare Incorporated ($8.8 stopLoss 16may16) EXE 7 7.6

Guyana Goldfields Inc. ($7.7 stopLoss 25jul16) 7.70 GUY 2 6.5


Northland Power Inc. 24.53 NPI 15 22.1

OceanaGold Corporation 4.72 OGC 2 3.8

Premier Gold Mines Ltd. ($4.2 stopLoss 25aug16) 4.96 PG 1 4.2

Buy-ins 31may16*100 shares each

Dundee Precious Metals Inc. ($3.2 stopLoss 25aug16) 3.93 DPM.TO 1 3.2

Extendicare Incorporated ($8.0 stopLoss 06jun16) EXE 7 7.6

Buy-ins 30jun16*100 shares each

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. 8.26 AAV 5 7.6

Golden Star Resources Ltd. 1.03 GSC.TO 1 0.8

Buy-ins 30jun16*100 shares each

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B2Gold Corp. ($3.3 stopLoss 31aug16) 4.09 BTO.TO 1 3.3

Silvercorp Metals Inc. 3.87 SVM.TO 1 3.0

New TSX 2013 BookBuilder TM Portfolio (including dividendsª) 30 September 2016 / 31 August 2013

9486.30 /6282.00 Gain 37.0

months 51.01%

IRR pa 14.30%


Net Cash * 100 (stoploss sakes) 800.00


(See prior posts for early trading history) SF

(Risk Price)

Stoploss

Buy-ins 30jun16*100 shares each 5 0.9

Baytex Energy Corp. 5.57 BTE.TO 6 5.8


NovaGold Resources Inc. 7.33 NG 1 3.5

Premier Gold Mines Limited 4.04 PG 1 1.9

Western Forest Products Inc. 2.16 WEF 5 0.9

Net Current Cash after 30sep16 *100 share Buy-ins 0.00



360.30

New TSX 2013 BookBuilder TM Portfolio (including dividendsª) 30 September 2016 / 31 August 2013

9486.30 /6282.00 Gain 37.0

months 51.01%

IRR pa 14.30% (Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. 9.20 AAV 5 8.3

Choice Properties REIT 13.81 CHP.UN 10 13.0

Great Canadian Gaming Corp 22.84 GC 14 20.6

Hummin’ right along this spare bunch have gained 33.67% in 9 months this year, but, if you came later to our games, 20.31% in the past 6 months, 16.40% in the quarter, (TSX Q3- 4.70%) that is a nice, very nice, bunch of spare ‘likeables’

BookBuilder TM New TSX 2014 “Likeables”

$5,000 Portfolio (31 August 2014 *100 share Buy-ins)

4871.00


SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss

Buy-ins 30nov2015 *100 shares each

Chorus Aviation Inc. ($5.4 stopLoss 11jan16) CHR.B 5 0.0

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Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. 11.15 KGI 5 9.3

OceanaGold Corp. ($2.4 stopLoss 07dec15) OGC 2 3.8

Premier Gold Mines Ltd. ($2.5 stopLoss 18jan16) PG 1 4.2

Buy-ins 31dec2015 *100 shares each

Alacer Gold Corp. ($2.5 stopLoss 20jul15) ASR 2 3.0

Guyana Goldfields Inc. ($7.7 stopLoss 25jul16). 7.70 GUY 2 6.5

Lake Shore Gold Corp. (01apr16 TSR takesover LSG) LSG 1 1.7

NovaGold Resources Inc. ($5.5 stopLoss 12jan16) NG 4 7.7

Buy-ins 31jan16 *100 shares each

Chorus Aviation Inc. ($5.1 stopLoss 10feb16) CHR.B 5 0.0

BlackBerry Limited ($9.3 stopLoss 09feb16) BB 8 8.6


Western Forest Products Inc. ($1.9 stopLoss 03feb16) WEF 1 1.9


Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. ($7.1 stopLoss 16jun16) AAV 5 7.6

Extendicare Incorporated ($8.8 stopLoss 16may16) EXE 7 7.6


Nevsun Resources Ltd. ($3.9 stopLoss 23jun16) NSU 3 3.9


Extendicare Incorporated ($8.0 stopLoss 06jun16) EXE 7 7.6

Golden Star Resources Ltd. 1.03 GSC.TO 1 0.8

Torex Gold Resources Inc. (1:10 split 05jul16) 2.70 TXG.TO 1 23.1


Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. 11.38 FVI.TO 4 9.1

Nevsun Resources Ltd. 4.32 NSU 3 3.9

NuVista Energy Ltd. 6.33 NVA 4 5.4


Eldorado Gold Corporation 5.35 ELD.TO 4 4.5

Wi-LAN Inc. ($2.0 stopLoss 14sep16) 2.38 WIN 2 2.0

BookBuilder TM New TSX 2014 “Likeables” (including dividendsª) 31 September 2016 / 31 August 2014

5588.80 /4871.00 Gain 25.0

months 14.74%

IRR pa 6.80%

Net Current Cash (after 29feb16 *100 share Buy-ins) 39.00

Net Cash * 100 (on stoploss sales) 770.00



SF (Risk Price)

Stoploss


Ballard Power Systems Incorporated 2.88 BLD 2 2.5



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128.90

BookBuilder TM New TSX 2014 “Likeables” (including dividendsª) 31 July 2016 / 31 August 2014

5911.70 /4871.00 Gain 23.0

months 21.37%

IRR pa 7.07%

This result is far less than our expected long term tendency using ‘collaring options’. However, it

is catching-up. That is cause for celebratory hats and horns. It is heading toward double digit

gain, as TSX enters waffling stage of ‘news’ in resources. This portfolio has gone through

volatile negative market behaviour its entire 2 year interval, with TSX still down at -1.57%. This

demonstrates resilience of our robust Risk Price driven methods even when using the less

effective stoploss regime. The modest ’short sell’ of not buying back at higher price than stoploss

has limited capital erosion during these negative times, while showing the long term tendency for

gain by staying in the market as it gyrates on gossip, dis-information and ‘news’.

Our options trading based on Risk Price indications testing the market is aggressive strategic

investing which needs prompt diligence filtering put/call offers in the options market, that takes

effort and time the small investor cannot or should not take from what they do best to earn their

incomes and save. Invest your savings with our Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ to earn income and

build your own wealth from our charity in sharing enough of our proprietary data for serving the

small investor building his own wealth. Accredited investors should buy StockTakers 12% Bond,

and, we will do the work, because we can.

Risk Price is about knowing more than the rest, more than conventional fundamentals offer to the

investor at any scale of portfolio. We know the pursuit of framing options to collar exit or holds

guided by the Risk Price is more lucrative. That takes too much attention for the small investor

who just wants to save and build wealth hopeful of gains better than inflation in the long term

and be liquid all the while, ready for difficult times when they need some ready cash, drawing on

their own wealth, for helping themselves or their dear ones. Stoploss does that passively, for you.

Engage “likeables” and save your own bacon.

The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their

methods, whose results are 1.03:1, like24 a coin toss. Avoid those Artful Dodgers playing dice with

your wallet. Investors need a real compass25. Risk Price shows their way. Our TaxCharityTM gives

proof. In the spirit and tradition of real science of Bacon and Newton we feign nothing; our

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demonstrations are in real time with real consequences obtaining real benefit to investors’ wallets,

because we can.

In our Modal Geometry theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:

1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly

weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared

to be responsible for); and,

2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is

owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its

trading connections).

The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded more by rigourous observation in the real

world of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and

some powerful mathematics, real science, not conventional assumptions with little relevance but

gossip.

Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables” are

equities shown valued by investors, tending to continuing gain, which investors have demonstrated

a determination to buy and hold at stock prices above the Risk Price. “AlphaSmartTM gains, Capital

Safety and Liquidity” are consequences we obtain through risk aversion that our Risk Price

enables. That is proven.

Proof is positive, in our TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios, extending our proprietary

information to small investors. The BST-Solo50KTM and ABC-ZsTM suit larger wallets. Because

we can, while the entire financial industry is so busy blowing bubbles26 with cash from your wallet.

Know What You Have. Have What You Know.

Our risk averse view works. The proof of our method is clear and forthrightly shown. Of course we

require 2&20 fees for doing that, or utilize our StockTakers 12% Bond. Mail us for your wealthy

helping of what we can do for you. Because we can. You have proof.

It is the price of risk27 because that’s the price at which we can reasonably expect to get our money

back with a possible and hopeful return that exceeds the rate of inflation. That proof is here in your

hands, as we continue to show as above, because, we can.

Know What You Have, and only, Have What You Know.

Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.

Hans Goetze, Architypes Inc. [email protected] and StockTakers Limited

http://riskwerk.com/2012/08/26/the-price-of-risk/

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Head Office 76

351 Chemin Boulanger Sutton, PQ J0E 2K0 450 538-1270 647-608-2176

1 http://riskwerk.com/2012/06/05/economics-is-confusing/ 2 http://riskwerk.com/2015/08/27/pi-extreme-economics-the-worlds-bubble-wrap/ 3 https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/ 4 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 5 ‘Father’ of Modern Portfolio Theory, Peter L. Bernstein, became disaffected realizing it was exposing investors to risk while productive way for making the professionals a living http://www.e-m-h.org/Bernstein1999.pdf 6 E. Goetze,“The Modal Geometry of the Firm and the Balance Sheet Worth of the Trading Connections”, 2006 7 http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/ 8 http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21676767-entrepreneurs-are-redesigning-basic-building-block-capitalism-reinventing-company?cid1=cust/ednew/n/n/n/20151022n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/email 9 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/orienteering-among-magpies 10 banks have paid nearly $230 billion in litigation costs since 2009 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/13/us-banking-litigation-research-idUSKBN0KM10G20150113 11 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/only-a-black-swan-will-bring-back-stock-volatility-2014-05-18 These Goldilocks and the Black Swans are confused by the tales even the VIXens siren to investors. 12 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/medieval-diet 13 http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21676767-entrepreneurs-are-redesigning-basic-building-block-capitalism-

reinventing-company?cid1=cust/ednew/n/n/n/20151022n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/email 14 https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/ 15 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-corporate-social-on-our-best 16 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stocktakers-12-bond 17 http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/ 18 http://www.economist.com/news/china/21701505-chinas-foreign-policy-could-reshape-good-part-world-economy-our-bulldozers-our-rules?cid1=cust/ednew/t/bl/n/20160630n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/n 19 https://riskwerk.com/2013/08/07/the-god-stock-econo-speak/ 20 http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/03/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market/ ; http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/21/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-2/ ; http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/ 21 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor 22 http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/ 23 http://www.homeless.org.uk/connect/news/2015/dec/17/latest-homelessness-numbers-underline-desperate-need-to-tackle-housing 24 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios on North American markets the combined

average result of ‘managers’ investment models is 1.03:1, statistically no better than monkeys tossing coins or dice as compared to Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ portfolio showing 2.28:1 of the equities gain for long periods, the rest is ‘gardening’ 25 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/orienteering-among-magpies 26 http://riskwerk.com/2013/10/14/asset-bubbles-day-october-14-2013/ 27 http://riskwerk.com/2012/08/26/the-price-of-risk/

http://riskwerk.com/2012/06/05/economics-is-confusing/

http://riskwerk.com/2015/08/27/pi-extreme-economics-the-worlds-bubble-wrap/

https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios

http://www.e-m-h.org/Bernstein1999.pdf

http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21676767-entrepreneurs-are-redesigning-basic-building-block-capitalism-reinventing-company?cid1=cust/ednew/n/n/n/20151022n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/email


http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/orienteering-among-magpies

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/13/us-banking-litigation-research-idUSKBN0KM10G20150113

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/13/us-banking-litigation-research-idUSKBN0KM10G20150113

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/only-a-black-swan-will-bring-back-stock-volatility-2014-05-18

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/medieval-diet



https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-corporate-social-on-our-best

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stocktakers-12-bond

http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21701505-chinas-foreign-policy-could-reshape-good-part-world-economy-our-bulldozers-our-rules?cid1=cust/ednew/t/bl/n/20160630n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/n

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21701505-chinas-foreign-policy-could-reshape-good-part-world-economy-our-bulldozers-our-rules?cid1=cust/ednew/t/bl/n/20160630n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/n

https://riskwerk.com/2013/08/07/the-god-stock-econo-speak/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/03/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market/

http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/21/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-2/



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor

http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/

http://www.homeless.org.uk/connect/news/2015/dec/17/latest-homelessness-numbers-underline-desperate-need-to-tackle-housing

http://www.homeless.org.uk/connect/news/2015/dec/17/latest-homelessness-numbers-underline-desperate-need-to-tackle-housing

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios

http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/orienteering-among-magpies

http://riskwerk.com/2013/10/14/asset-bubbles-day-october-14-2013/

http://riskwerk.com/2012/08/26/the-price-of-risk/

BookBuilderTM 30sep16

Economy & Finance

Transcript of BookBuilderTM 30sep16