BMO_Research Highlights Mar 30

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

*Click on title to view Comments **Click here to view Calendar of Events

Rating Changes

Wescast Industries Upgrading to Outperform on Strong Q4/09 Earnings and Ebbing Liquidity Concerns

P. Sklar

DirectCash Income Fund Downgrading to Market Perform; Q4/09 Results in Line A. Shah

Small Cap Stocks Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund

Lifting 2010 Attendance Forecast on Film Slate; Raising Estimates and Target

J. Logsdon

Reitmans (Canada) 4Q in Line; Reiterate OUTPERFORM Rating J. Morris

Industry/Macro Comments

Energy - Royalty Trusts Weekly Royalty Trust Report – Week Ending March 26, 2010 G. Tait

North American Pipelines Natural Gas IQ C. Kirst

Financials - Real Estate/REITS

REITers Digest Canadian Real Estate/REIT Weekly (Ending March 5, 2010) K. MacIndoe

Transportation - Rails Tracking Shipments – Week 11 Rail Traffic – Intermodal Rebound R. Cousins

Quantitative Analysis Relative Strength Filter — Outperforming, Not Overbought M. Steele

Quantitative Analysis Market Elements M. Steele

Economic Research A.M. Notes Economics

Disclosure Statements To view important Disclosure Statements go to http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp

http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

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Earnings & Conference Calls Atlantic Power Corporation (ATP) EPU Q4/09 BMO EPU ($0.09) vs. $1.30 last year; First Call Mean ($0.02)

416-849-2698 or 866-400-2270; Replay: 866-245-6755 (Passcode: 151181#); Webcast: www.atlanticpower.com

10:00 am

Gammon Gold (GAM) EPS Q4/09 BMO EPS US$0.08 vs. US$0.178 last year; First Call Mean US$0.113 FY/09 BMO EPS US$0.16 vs. US$0.250 last year; First Call Mean US$0.174

888-231-8191 or 647-427-7450; Replay: 416-849-0833 or 800-642-1687 (Passcode: 58806907#); Webcast: www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEvent.cgi?eventID=2975940

10:00 am

Today's Events & Marketing

EnCana (ECA) Company presentation in Los Angeles & San Francisco. Mike McAllister (VP, Canadian Deep Basin (Montney & Bighorn)), Todd Brown (Team Lead, Texana (Haynesville)) and Ryder McRitchie (VP, Investor Relations).

Rio Novo (RN) Company presentation in Toronto. David Beatty (CEO) and Alex Penha (Director, Corporate Development).

TELUS (T) Company presentation in Montreal. Bob McFarlane (EVP & CFO) and Robert Mitchell (Investor Relations).

Bert Hazlett (Pharmaceuticals Analyst) Marketing in Boston

Karen Short (Food Retailing Analyst) Marketing in Chicago

Economics/Industry Data

Time Data Period BMO Capital Markets Estimate

Previous Period

Consensus

08:30 am Cdn. Industrial Product Price Index Feb. (e) - 0.1% +0.3% unch 08:30 am Cdn. Raw Materials Price Index Feb. (e) - 0.1% +3.3% -1.0% 09:00 am U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jan. (e) -1.0% y/y -3.1% y/y 10:00 am U.S. Conference Board Consumer

Confidence Index Mar. (e) 50.0 46.0 50.0

Upcoming Events & Marketing

EnCana (ECA) Company presentation in Los Angeles & San Francisco. Mike McAllister (VP, Canadian Deep Basin (Montney & Bighorn)), Todd Brown (Team Lead, Texana (Haynesville)) and Ryder McRitchie (VP, Investor Relations).

Mar. 29-31

Artis REIT (AX.UN) Company presentation in Chicago. Armin Martens (President & CEO) and Jim Green (CFO).

Mar. 31

Ballard Power Systems (BLD) Company presentation in Toronto Mar. 31

Mike Vinciquerra (Exchanges & Discount Brokers Analyst)

Marketing in Boston Mar. 31

Dan Salmon (Marketing Services & Advertising Agencies Analyst)

Marketing in Chicago Mar. 31-Apr. 1

BMO Capital Markets Calendar of Events

Page 2 • March 30, 2010 (Back to Index)

Karine MacIndoe (Real Estate & REITs Analyst) Marketing in the Mid-Atlantic region Apr. 1

Dan Salmon (Marketing Services & Advertising Agencies Analyst)

Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 5

Wayne Hood (Broadline Retailing Analyst) Marketing in New York Apr. 5-6

Andrew Kaip (Precious Metals & Mining Analyst) Marketing in Boston & New York Apr. 5-7

INV Metals (INV) Company presentation in Toronto. Bob Bell (President & CEO) and Candace MacGibbon (CFO).

Apr. 6

Gordon Tait (Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst) Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 6

Meredith Bandy (Coal Analyst) Marketing in Boston Apr. 6

Connie Maneaty (Personal Care & Household Products Analyst)

Marketing in Richmond & Atlanta Apr. 6

Lana Chan & Peter Winter (Financial Institutions Analysts) Marketing in Texas Apr. 6-8

Gammon Gold (GAM) Company presentation in Boston & New York. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day (Director, IR).

Apr. 6-9

Joanne Wuensch (Medical Technology & Devices Research Analyst)

Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 7

Karine MacIndoe (Real Estate & REITs Analyst) Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 7

Claude Proulx (Airlines & Special Situations Analyst) Marketing in Toronto Apr. 7-8

Cap REIT (CAR.UN) Company presentation in Winnipeg & Vancouver. Tom Schwartz (President & CEO) and Richard Smith (CFO).

Apr. 7-8

Christopher Brown (Oil & Gas International Producers Analyst)

Marketing in Winnipeg Apr. 8

Alan Laws (Oil Services Analyst) Marketing in New York & Connecticut Apr. 8-9

Christopher Brown (Oil & Gas International Producers Analyst)

Marketing in Toronto Apr. 9

Carl Kirst (North American Pipeline Analyst) Marketing in Boston Apr. 12

Wayne Hood (Broadline Retailing Analyst) Marketing in Europe Apr. 12-14



Gammon Gold (GAM) Company presentation in Texas, L.A. & San Francisco. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day (Director, IR).

Apr. 12-14

Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and Allen Todd (VP, IR).

Apr. 12-15

Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and Allen Todd (VP, Investor Relations).

Apr. 12-16

Detour Gold Corp. (DGC) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 12-16

New Gold (NGD) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 12-16

Randy Ollenberger (Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Analyst)

Marketing in Toronto Apr. 13-15

Gordon Tait (Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst) Marketing in Montreal Apr. 14

General Mills (GIS) Company presentation in the Mid-Atlantic. Don Mulligan (CFO) and Kristen S. Wenker (VP, Investor Relations).

Apr. 14

Carl Kirst (North American Pipeline Analyst) Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 14-15

Jim Byrne (Integrated Oils & Refiners Analyst) Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 15

Paul Adornato & Richard Anderson (U.S. REITs Analysts) Marketing in Boston Apr. 15

Jeffrey Logsdon (Entertainment & Gaming Analyst) Marketing in Boston Apr. 15-16

Gammon Gold (GAM) Company presentation in Toronto. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day (Director, IR). Apr. 16

Randy Ollenberger (Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Analyst)

Marketing in Montreal Apr. 16

Osisko Mining (OSK) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 19-23

Gordon Tait (Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst) Marketing in Toronto Apr. 20-21

Alamos Gold (AGI) Company presentation in Europe. John A. McCluskey (President and CEO) and Jeremy Link (Investor Relations Manager).

Apr. 21

John Morris (Apparel Retail Analyst) Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 21

Pacific Rubiales (PRE) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 22-23



Romarco (R) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 26-27

Jason Zhang (Healthcare - Biotech Analyst) Marketing in Boston Apr. 27

If you are interested in any of the above events, please contact your BMO Capital Markets Institutional Equity/Fixed Income salesperson, or the following: Toronto Events: Laura Heuff 416-359-5816 Montreal Events: Marjorie Heppell at 514-286-7231 Western Canada Events: Jennifer Crombie 604-443-1452 U.S. Events: Angela Dong 212-702-1969 Europe Events: Hannah Pead 44-207-246- 5418

This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employ d as a research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including

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Wescast Industries (WCS.A-TSX) Stock Rating: OutperformIndustry Rating: Outperform

March 29, 2010 Research Comment Toronto, Ontario

Peter Sklar, CA (416) 359-5188 [email protected] Assoc: Andrew McKendry, CA, CFA

Price (29-Mar) $3.30 52-Week High $3.30 Target Price $6.00 52-Week Low $0.64

Upgrading to Outperform on Strong Q4/09 Earnings and Ebbing Liquidity Concerns

ed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registerethe Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 4 to 6.

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Wescast Industries Inc (WCS.A)Price: High,Low,Close Earnings/Share

Event On March 24, 2010, Wescast released its 2009 financial statements and MD&A.

Wescast reported Q4/09 earnings of $0.15 per share versus a Q4/08 loss of

$7.28 per share.

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Impact Positive. Q4/09 earnings of $0.15 per share were significantly better than our

forecast for a loss of $0.26 per share, owing to strong performance in North

America and Europe. In addition, whereas we had previously been concerned

about the company’s liquidity, Wescast indicated the company recently received

a commitment to extend its credit facility by two years. The current facility

expires in April 2010. Lastly, Wescast’s financial statements no longer carry a

going concern disclosure.

Forecasts After considering Wescast’s Q4/09 results, we have revised our 2010 loss

estimate to $0.02 from $0.96 per share, and our 2011 estimate to earnings of

$0.53 per share from a loss of $0.50 per share.

Valuation Due to the upward revisions to our estimates, we have increased our target price

to $6.00 from $2.50. Our revised target is based on a projected enterprise value

that is 2.5x (previously 2.3x) our revised 2011 EBITDA forecast.

Recommendation Based on the return to target, we are upgrading Wescast to Outperform from

Market Perform. Despite our more favourable view on the stock, we highlight

that Wescast is not suitable for institutional investors given the company’s

limited float capitalization of $19 million.

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(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E EPS -$8.43 -$1.67 -$0.02 $0.53P/E na 6.2x CFPS -$0.52 $0.64 $1.95 $2.61P/CFPS 1.7x 1.3x Rev. ($mm) $302 $208 $255 $283 EV ($mm) $63 $24 $55 $56 EBITDA ($mm) $9 $11 $28 $37 E

V/EBITDA 7.1x 2.2x 2.0x 1.5x

Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008A -$0.19 -$0.20 -$0.75 -$7.28 2009A -$0.74 -$0.62 -$0.46 $0.15 2010E $0.07 $0.04 -$0.09 -$0.04 Dividend $0.00 Yield 0.0% Book Value $16.25 Price/Book 0.2x Shares O/S (mm) 13.2 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $44 Float O/S (mm) 5.8 Float Cap ($mm) $19 Wkly Vol (000s) 31 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $0.1 Net Debt ($mm) -$1.6 Next Rep. Date 29-Apr (E)

Notes: All values in C$; Quarterly EPS est. do not include Stock Appreciation Rights exp.; Subordinate Voting Major Shareholders: The LeVan family (56%) First Call Mean Estimates: WESCAST INDUSTRIES INC. (C$) 2009E: -$2.25; 2010E: -$0.96; 2011E: -$0.50

Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly EPS Target 2010E -$0.96 to -$0.02 2010E $1.02 to $1.95 Q1/10E -$0.23 to $0.07 $2.50 to $6.00 2011E -$0.50 to $0.53 2011E $1.59 to $2.61 Q2/10E -$0.22 to $0.04 Rating Q3/10E -$0.28 to -$0.09 Mkt to OP Q4/10E -$0.23 to -$0.04

This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employ d as a research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including

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DirectCash Income Fund (DCI.UN-TSX) Stock Rating: Market Perform

March 29, 2010 Research Comment Toronto, Ontario

Atul Shah (416) 359-4691 [email protected]

Price (29-Mar) $15.44 52-Week High $18.06 Target Price $16.00 52-Week Low $8.55

Downgrading to Market Perform; Q4/09 Results in Line DirectCash Income Fund (DCI.UN)

Price: High,Low,Close

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Event DirectCash reported in-line Q4/09 results. EBITDA/unit of $0.57 was a penny

shy of our estimate of $0.58 but a penny higher than last year's $0.56.

Impact

Slightly Negative.

ed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registerethe Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 5 to 7.

Forecasts We are decreasing both our 2010 and 2011 EBITDA/unit estimates by $0.15 to

$2.40 and $2.50 from $2.55 and $2.65, respectively

Valuation

Our $16.00 target price reflects 7.75x 2010E EV/EBITDA.

Recommendation We are downgrading DirectCash to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect

a total potential return of 13%. The fund’s unit price has nearly doubled from

year-ago levels and we believe appreciation over the coming quarters will be

more modest. We expect annual EBITDA growth of 4% over 2010 and 2011 to

primarily come from the deployment of ATMs in Mexico and the continued

roll-out of the prepaid MasterCard product. The fund indicated that it is

currently evaluating its options for conversion to a “high dividend paying

corporation” and plans to approach unitholders in Q3/10. It sports a

conservative payout ratio, which we believe will most likely enable it to

maintain most, if not all, of its current cash distribution when it converts into an

income tax paying corporation toward the end of 2010. The current monthly

cash distribution of $0.115 yields an attractive 8.9%.

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(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E EBITDA/unit $2.08 $2.31 $2.40 $2.50P/EBITDA 6.4x 6.2x DCPU $1.81 $2.07 $2.10 na P/DCPU 7.4x na Rev. ($mm) $89 $97 $101 $105 Net Income ($mm) $2 $15 $18 $15 EBITDA ($mm) $26 $29 $30 $31 Quarterly EBITDA/unit Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008A $0.49 $0.52 $0.51 $0.56 2009A $0.57 $0.58 $0.60 $0.57 2010E $0.58 $0.60 $0.62 $0.60 Dividend $1.38 Yield 8.9% Book Value $4.74 Price/Book 3.3x Units O/S (mm) 12.5 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $193 Float O/S (mm) 5.6 Float Cap ($mm) $86 Wkly Vol (000s) 52 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $0.7 Net Debt ($mm) $40.3 Next Rep. Date May (E)

Notes: All values in C$ Major Unitholders: Management (about 45%) First Call Mean Estimates: Not Available

Changes Annual EBITDA/unit Annual DCPU Quarterly EBITDA/unit Rating 2010E $2.55 to $2.40 2010E $2.20 to $2.10 Q1/10E $0.62 to $0.58 OP to Mkt 2011E $2.65 to $2.50 Q2/10E $0.65 to $0.60 Q3/10E $0.66 to $0.62 Q4/10E $0.63 to $0.60

Please r cluding the Analyst's Certification.

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Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund (CGX.UN-TSX) Stock Rating: OutperformI ndustry Rating: Outperform

March 30, 2010

Entertainment

Jeffrey B. LogsdonBMO Capital Markets Corp.

[email protected]

Jeffrey Hoskins, CFA Kara Stevenson213-228-2405 [email protected] [email protected]

Securities Info Price (29-Mar) $20.25 Target Price $26 52-Wk High/Low $20/$14 Dividend $1.26Mkt Cap (mm) $1,152 Yield 6.2%Shs O/S (mm, BASIC) 56.9 Float O/S (mm) 55.6Options O/S (mm) 4.6 ADVol (30-day, 000s) 192

Price Performance

Lifting 2010 Attendance Forecast on Film Slate; Raising Estimates and Target

Event With better visibility to a quality film slate in 2010, we are raising our

attendance forecast to 73.1 million from 70.5 million. Our new forecast

implies 4.4% y/y attendance growth on 1.6% more screens (roughly 20 net

opened screens). 3-D and live event ticket premiums are expected to provide

incremental revenue in 2010, but our higher attendance forecast is not

entirely due to the 3-D draw. As such, our raised revenue, EBITDA, and EPS

estimates are due primarily to incremental customer traffic based on the

entire 2010 film slate and only to a lesser degree on higher ticket prices. 8

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CINEPLEX GALAXY INCOME FD (CGX.UN)Price: High,Low,Close(US$) Relative to S&P 500

efer to pages 5 to 7 for Important Disclosures, in

Impact Positive. As we move further into 2010, we are becoming increasinglyconvinced that this year’s slate can draw more customers than last year’s.Recent 2.5% pricing increases, combined with better first-quarter film results (up over 20% in Canada) set a better tone for 2010 film revenues. On-screen advertising continues to pick up, a positive from a high margin business.

Forecasts We are raising our 2010 DCPU estimate to $2.55 from $2.42. We are alsoraising our 2011 estimate to $2.75 from $2.55, both on attendance and pricing.

Valuation We are raising our 9-15 month price target for CGX.UN to $26 from $24. Our target is based on a DCF analysis that uses a 7.0x terminal EBITDA multiple.

Recommendation We continue to rate CGX.UN OUTPERFORM.

Changes Annual DCPU Annual FCF Quarterly DCPU Target 2010E $2.42 to $2.55 2010E $2.05 to $2.24 Q1/10E $0.39 to $0.50 $24.00 to $26.00 2011E $2.55 to $2.75 2011E $2.18 to $2.38 Q3/10E $0.77 to $0.78

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Valuation/Financial Data

(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E DCPU $1.86 $2.14 $2.55 $2.75 P/DCPU 7.9x 7.4x First Call Cons.

FCF $1.85 $2.39 $2.24 $2.38 P/FCF 9.0x 8.5x EBITDA ($mm) $145 $161 $182 $199 EV/EBITDA 7.9x 7.3x Rev. ($mm) $850 $964 $1,039 $1,075 EV/Rev 1.4x 1.3x

Quarterly DCPU 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2009A $0.38 $0.63 $0.67 $0.46 2010E $0.50 $0.70 $0.78 $0.57

Balance Sheet Data (31-Dec) Net Debt ($mm) $293 TotalDebt/EBITDA 2.1x Total Debt ($mm) $380 EBITDA/IntExp na Net Debt/Cap. 29.5% Price/Book 1.8x Notes: All values in C$. Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet, Global Insight, Reuters, and Thomson Financial.

Please r cluding the Analyst's Certification.

(Back to Index)

Reitmans (Canada) (RET.A-TSX; RET-TSX) Stock Rating: OutperformI ndustry Rating: Market Perform

March 29, 2010

Apparel Retail

John D. MorrisBMO Capital Markets Corp.

[email protected]

Edward Plank Jennifer Redding 212-885-4053 212-885-4072 edward.plank @bmo.com [email protected]

4Q in Line; Reiterate OUTPERFORM Rating Securities Info Price (26-Mar) $16.65 Target Price $19 52-Wk High/Low $18/$10 Dividend $0.72Mkt Cap (mm) $902 Yield 4.3%Shs O/S (mm, BASIC) 54.2 Float O/S (mm) 48.8Options O/S (mm) na ADVol (30-day, 000s) 73

Price Performance

Event Reitmans reported 4Q EPS of $0.21, in line with our estimate. Same-store sales increased 1.5%, which was better than our flat forecast. Encouragingly, sales were up 2%, which was a little better than expected and we believe thecompany’s promotional cadence was in line with plan, driven by strong post-Christmas business. Importantly, gross margin improved 420 bp to 65.0%, asthe average rate for a USD strengthened to $1.05 CAD versus $1.23 last year, contributing $7 million to gross margin. This led to a 260 bp gain inEBITDA margin to 13.9%, which was in line with our forecast.

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REITMANS CDA LTD (RET.A)Price: High,Low,Close(US$) Relative to S&P 500

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Impact The company maintained a somewhat conservative view toward FY2010.However, based on our conversations with management and our channelchecks, we believe spring business is checking well so far. We feel confident the company’s strong fundamentals will help weather any remaining short-term headwinds as the Canadian economy picks up. We remain positive onthe name given 1) Reitmans’ dominant position in the Canadian specialtyapparel market, 2) the company’s brand strength and diversified portfolio ofretail concepts, and 3) a 4% dividend yield that is among the highest in our group. We think EBITDA should continue to benefit from improvingcurrency exchange rates over the next few quarters, which could providesome leverage to the bottom line in FY2010.

efer to pages 5 to 7 for Important Disclosures, in

Forecasts We are making no changes to our FY2010 and FY2011 EPS estimates.

Valuation We view RET shares as a compelling investment based on an attractiverisk/reward scenario. Our 12-month price target of $19 is based on 14x our 2011 EPS estimate.

Recommendation We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares.

Changes Annual FCF Quarterly EPS

2010E $1.78 to $1.74 Q3/10E $0.32 to $0.33 2011E na to $1.86 Q4/10E $0.28 to $0.27

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Valuation/Financial Data

(FY-Jan.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E EPS Pro Forma $1.21 $0.98 $1.25 $1.40 P/E 13.3x 11.9x First Call Cons. $0.99 $1.22 EPS GAAP $1.21 $0.98 $1.25 $1.40

FCF $1.00 $1.37 $1.74 $1.86 P/FCF 9.6x 9.0x EBITDA ($mm) $181 $158 $186 $202 EV/EBITDA 3.7x 3.4x Rev. ($mm) $1,051 $1,057 $1,093 $1,132 EV/Rev 0.6x 0.6x

Quarterly EPS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2009A $0.11 $0.38 $0.28 $0.21 2010E $0.22 $0.43 $0.33 $0.27

Balance Sheet Data (10/30/09) Net Debt ($mm) -$222 TotalDebt/EBITDA 0.1x Total Debt ($mm) $13 EBITDA/IntExp na Net Debt/Cap. nm Price/Book 2.2x Notes: All values in C$. Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet, Global Insight, Reuters, and Thomson Financial.

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Drill Bits Weekly Royalty Trust Report Week Ending March 26, 2010

March 29, 2010 Gordon Tait, CFA (403) 515-1501 Assoc: Chris Bolton, CFA/Peter Kranz, P. Eng (403) 515-1503/1517 Email: [email protected]

Index Performance:Weekly YTD

Week Ending: 26-Mar Change ChangeS&P/TSX ET Index: 325.43 -0.7% 5.7%S&P/TSX E&P Index 3,765 -1.8% -2.6%

S&P/TSX Composite 31,756 0.1% 2.4%

Commodity Performance:

WTI Oil (US$/bbl): $80.00 -0.8% 0.8%AECO Gas (C$/Mcf): $3.77 -0.8% -35.0%US$/C$ Exchange Rate $0.9741 -0.9% 2.4%

BMO Forecast Assumptions: '10E '11E

WTI Oil (US$/bbl): $75.00 $80.00AECO Gas (C$/Mcf): $4.26 $5.05US$/C$ Exchange Rate: $0.95 $0.95

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg

S&P/TSX Energy Trust Index vs. S&P/TSX E&P Index vs. S&P/TSX Composite Index

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ource: BM O Capital M arkets, B loombergN o te: last data po int M arch 26, 2010 S

Weekly Highlights For the week, the S&P/TSX Canadian Energy Trust Index decreased

0.7%, while the S&P/TSX E&P Index declined by 1.8%. Year to date, the Energy Trust Index is up 5.7%, compared to a 2.6% decrease for the E&P Index and a 2.4% increase for the S&P/TSX Composite.

WTI crude oil ended the week at US$80.00/bbl (C$82.13), a decrease of 0.8% over last week’s close. WTI crude oil has averaged US$70.18/bbl over the past 12 months and US$78.57/bbl year to date. AECO natural gas closed the week at C$3.77/Mcf, a decline of 0.8% from last week. AECO has averaged C$3.99/Mcf over the past 12 months and $4.99/Mcf year to date.

The top three performing royalty trusts last week were VET (2.1%), PGF (1.8%), ZAR (1.4%), while the weakest performance came from AAV (-8.2%), DAY (-6.5%), NAL (-4.0%).

We have Outperform ratings on AET, BTE, COS, CPG, NAE, PGF and VET. We are restricted on BNP and PMT.

This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 13 to 14.

March 29, 2010

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North American Pipelines

Industry Rating: Market Perform

March 29, 2010

Carl Kirst, CFABMO Capital Markets Corp.

[email protected]

Danilo Juvane, CFA713-546-9741

[email protected]

Gas Industry Snapshot* Natural Gas IQ NYMEX Natural Gas 12-Mo. Strip ($/mmbtu): $4.51

Weekly Change -6.8%

YTD Change -23.2%

NYMEX Crude Oil 12-Mo. Strip ($/bbl): $81.72

Weekly Change -0.7%

YTD Change -0.5%

Natural Gas Liquids (40% ethane, $/gal): $1.03

Current $ Correlation to Spot Crude Oil 54.0%

Weekly Change -1.9%

YTD Change -13.4%

Processing Frac-Spread (Gulf Coast, $/gal): $0.70

Weekly Change -1.6%

YTD Change 0.2%

LNG U.S. Imports (weekly avg, Bcf/d): 1.46

Weekly Change 255.1%

Y-o-Y Change -13.1%

Natural Gas in Storage (Bcf): +11 to 1,626

Vs. this week last year -1 to 1,655

Vs. this week 5-yr avg -37 to 1,505

Natural Gas Directed Rig Count: +2 to 941

Weekly Change 0.2%

Y-o-Y Change 16.2%

Stock Performance: Weekly

US Gas Diversif ieds -1.3%

US Gas Utilities -1.0%

Canadian Pipelines 0.2%

Canadian Trusts -0.3%

UTY (Philadelphia Utility Index) -1.6%

XOP (S&P E&P SPDR) -2.9%

OSX (Oil Service Index) -2.2%

S&P 500 (SPX) 0.6%

10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.3%

Stock Performance: YTD

US Gas Diversif ieds 2.1%

US Gas Utilities 2.3%

Canadian Pipelines 1.3%

Canadian Trusts 8.5%

UTY (Philadelphia Utility Index) -5.0%

XOP (S&P E&P SPDR) -1.3%

OSX (Oil Service Index) 2.2%

S&P 500 (SPX) 4.6%

10-Year US Treasury Yield 0.3%

* A ll data priced as of close M arch 26, 2010 in US$

The Natural Gas IQ is our weekly report aimed at developments in the natural gas

infrastructure space, and importantly, the implications for our pipeline equities.

Gas bearishness heats up; capitulation is getting closer, but not there yet we

think. With the start to the injection season arriving two weeks early (weather

since mid-March has been running 15% warmer than normal), storage remains 8%

above five-year averages while the natural gas rig count continues to climb higher

(January 914-production data out later today). Over the past two weeks we’ve seen

several houses across the Street reduce natural gas forecasts, and as our E&P team

recently noted, the long oil/short gas position is a bit of a crowded trade, to say the

least. That said, even with the 12-month strip of $4.55 this morning now hovering

only $0.10 higher than the low of 2009, it doesn’t mean prices won’t first go lower,

at least until the market sees more conviction in reduced drilling activity. Until that

happens (1Q conference calls?) and with further pressure likely on the $5.38 2010

consensus (vs. BMO estimate of $4.75), we think the natural gas trade will remain

muted. To be sure, we have no intent of catching a falling commodity knife,

particularly in the pipeline space, but we do note that the relative position of many

in our sector—providing downside protection via utility assets and hedging, with

long-term upside via E&P and/or midstream—has actually led to notable

outperformance YTD versus the E&P and utility indices, a trend that we expect

will continue. Top performers in our sector include OUTPERFORM-rated El Paso

(EP, $17 price target), Williams (WMB, $28 price target) and Southern Union

(SUG, $32, price target) along with MARKET PERFORM-rated Spectra (SE, $23

price target), all of which have outperformed the EPX and UTY indices by 13%-

15% YTD.

Short interest update: NiSource takes the mantle. As shown by the latest

biweekly update (Mar 25), NI’s short position increased 230 basis points to 4.6%

versus 2.2% average for the group (although given its liquidity, days to cover are

only 2.9 days vs. the 2.0 day average). We suspect rising short interest is related

more to pair trading given the stock’s 7.5% outperformance of the utility index

YTD, with further upside likely limited until the 2Q resolution of the NIPSCO rate

case (for which we assume a neutral outcome in our $17 price target). Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Waterborne, Baker Hughes, Platts, Company data.

Refer to pages 22 to 23 for Important Disclosures, including Analyst's Certification.


Back to Index

Financials - Real Estate/REITs Industry Rating: Market Perform

March 29, 2010 Research Comment Toronto, Ontario Karine MacIndoe (416) 359-4269 [email protected] Assoc: Garreth MacRae / Pauline Alimchandani, CA

REITers Digest Canadian Real Estate/REIT Weekly (Ending March 26, 2010)

Relative Price Performance - REITs vs. Broader Indices

(End of 2006-Current)

15

40

65

90

115

140

29-D

ec-0

6

28-F

eb-0

7

29-A

pr-0

7

29-J

un-0

7

29-A

ug-0

7

29-O

ct-07

29-D

ec-0

7

29-F

eb-0

8

29-A

pr-08

29-J

un-0

8

29-A

ug-0

8

29-O

ct-08

29-D

ec-0

8

28-F

eb-0

9

29-A

pr-0

9

29-J

un-0

9

29-A

ug-0

9

29-O

ct-09

29-D

ec-0

9

28-F

eb-1

0

Pri

ce O

nly

Per

form

ance

(In

dex

ed t

o 1

00)

Source: Bloomberg, BMO Capital MarketsLast Datapoint: March 26, 2010

S&P/TSX Capped REIT

MSCI US REIT

S&P/TSX Composite

US Financials

S&P/TSX Financials

Index Comparison -Relative Price Changes

26-Mar-10

Index Value Last WkLast Mth

Last Qtr

Last Year

% from All-Time High

S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index 120.00 1.6% 1.5% 3.3% 66.9% -32.4%

S&P/TSX Financials 189.38 1.2% 7.5% 8.2% 57.1% -16.1%

S&P/TSX Composite 11,957.37 0.1% 2.8% 1.7% 32.9% -20.7%

MSCI US REIT Index 679.87 1.3% 11.0% 6.7% 93.5% -44.9%

S&P US Financials 215.55 2.1% 9% 10.4% 69.0% -57.7%

S&P 500 1,166.59 0.6% 5.6% 3.4% 40.1% -25.5%

Source: Bloomberg, BMO Capital Markets

Summary

Weekly/quarterly performance: the S&P/TSX REIT Price Index up 1.6% last week (+3% last quarter, +67% last year), which slightly outperformed the MSCI U.S. REIT Index’s 1.3% (7% last quarter; 93.5% last year) and outperformed the S&P/TSX Composite’s 0.1% (+2% last quarter; 33% last year). The top three performing REITs/Corps last week were MRC (11%), LRT.UN (7%) and GDC (7%), while the weakest performers were LHR.UN (-11%), HLR.UN (-7%), and IIP.UN (-3%). The top three performers over the last quarter were GDC (99.5%), MRC (45%) and HNT.UN (39.5%), while the weakest were LRT.UN (-18%), ACC (-7%) and MEQ (-5%).

Relative Valuation: Canadian REITs are trading at 14.8x our

2010E AFFO, representing a 5 pt discount to U.S. REITs. If we switch to 2011, Canadian REITs are trading a 14.5x 2011E AFFO, maintaining an attractive 4.4 pt discount to U.S. REITs (10-year historical average discount is 2.5 pts).

Insider & NCIB Activity: Insider buying activity for the week

was reported in H&R (10,000 units by T. Hofstedter) and on the convert side First Capital ($300,000 Series C 6.25% converts by Gazit). YTD the most active buying was seen in H&R (35,000 units by T. Hofstedter), CAP (25,500 units), InnVest (15,000 units by the Mangalji Bros), and on the convert side, First Capital ($485,000, Series C 6.25% converts, by Gazit). There was no insider selling activity reported for the week. YTD, the most active insider selling was reported in Dundee (28,000 units by a director), Calloway (10,000 units by a director), and BPO (8,500 shares by a senior officer). No NCIB activity was reported for the week. YTD, the most active NCIB buying activity was reported by Royal Host (1.3 million units at $2.45/unit under SIB), and InnVest (7,000 units at $5.77/unit).

We currently have Outperform ratings on BPO, CAR.UN,

CSH.UN, HR.UN, INN.UN and NPR.UN. We are restricted on CUF.UN.

Canadian vs. US REIT Comparison -Relative Valuation

Date: 26-Mar-102011E AFFO

Multiple2010E AFFO

Multiple

2010E AFFO Yield

10 Yr Bond Yield

Spread 10 Yr Ave Spread

High/Low

Spread1

Canadian REITs 14.5x 14.8x 6.76% 3.56% 3.20% 3.66% 0.66/7.95%

US REITs 18.9x 19.8x 5.04% 3.85% 1.19% 2.37% -0.77/8.41%

2011E 2010E 10 Yr Ave Spread

High/Low Spread2

Multiple Spread (US vs Canada) : 4.4x 5.0x 2.5x 6.3x/-1x

Source: Bloomberg, SNL Financial, BMO Capital Markets

1. Cdn Low recorded in May 2007, High in Jan, 2009; US Low in Jan 2007, High In Feb 2009

2. High recorded in Jan '07; Low in 1999

Back to Index

Transportation - Rails Industry Rating: Outperform

March 29, 2009 Tracking Shipments Randy Cousins, CFA (416) 359-6194 [email protected] Assoc: Stephen Yang

Tracking Shipments Week 11 Rail Traffic – Intermodal Rebound

Observations – Our colleague Jason Granger covers the trucking and logistics companies in Canada and the United States. Jason is seeing increasing signs of a turn in demand for trucking and an improvement in spot market truckload rates. He notes that “a significant amount of capacity has been taken offline in the Truckload sector. As a result of carriers parking vehicles in 2009, an estimated 8–10% of capacity has been removed from the road. Moreover, trucking bankruptcies could provide the next catalyst for supply contraction in 2010.” With firmer demand alongside supply reduction, industry conditions are tightening. Truck price competition has been a significant issue in the intermodal segment for the railroads. Any improvement in truck rates should have follow-on or slipstream effect on rail intermodal rates. Chart 1 is the Cass Freight index. The Cass index is a measure of monthly freight volumes based on freight transactions processed by Cass (not the month the shipment takes place). The index uses January 1990 as its base month of comparison. The numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The bottom in truck freight activity occurred in early 2009. Although the absolute level of activity coming off the bottom is still quite weak, there has been a fairly steady improvement in demand. More recently, the year-over-year comparisons have been positive.

Cass Freight Index

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Source: Cass Information Systems, BMO CM research

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Cass Shipments Index Y/Y % Change


This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 2 to 3.

Back to Index

Relative Strength Filter March 30, 2010 Research Comment Quantitative/Technical Research Mark Steele (416) 359-4641 [email protected] Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita

Outperforming, Not Overbought

CLICK HERE for a printer friendly version of this report including research disclosures.

• The overall market landscape is positive, but quiet this morning – we will run some basic screens

• The bottom three panels show the top 10 stocks in each region which are 1) outperforming the market and the sector; 2) in good industries (top 5 deciles from our Group Selection Report); and 3) not overbought on both a daily and weekly RSI.

• When markets are trending, as they are, you buy strong stocks within strong groups. Adding on a technical filter (daily and weekly RSI below 70) helps to avoid the pitfalls of buying into overbought stocks.

Figure 1: S&P 500 Members – Outperforming Market & Sector, Strong Groups, Not Overbought on RSI – See Full List

Figure 2: S&P/TSX Composite Members – Outperforming Market & Sector, Strong Groups, Not Overbought on RSI – See List

Figure 3: Global 1200 Members – Outperforming Market & Sector, Strong Groups, Not Overbought on RSI – See Full List

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, Thomson, Markit

http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/PDF/7E961ACC-6908-45A4-AB1C-271ECF722D42.pdf

http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/v18/RelativeStrengthFilter.application?datafile=http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/Data/1D5342CA-0175-4898-A8A1-76B7C6CAFF93.xml&customfile=true

http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/v18/RelativeStrengthFilter.application?datafile=http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/Data/492DDBA8-360E-4330-A391-EBCB383DBE9E.xml&customfile=true

http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/v18/RelativeStrengthFilter.application?datafile=http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/Data/A4F895BD-DAB4-4484-A951-F462DB9659CF.xml&customfile=true


http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/v18/RelativeStrengthFilter.application?datafile=http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/Data/F0A2C580-0EB8-4E5A-833D-E712FC79176D.xml

http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/v18/RelativeStrengthFilter.application?datafile=http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/Data/1D5342CA-0175-4898-A8A1-76B7C6CAFF93.xml&customfile=true

http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/v18/RelativeStrengthFilter.application?datafile=http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/RSFilterApp/Data/492DDBA8-360E-4330-A391-EBCB383DBE9E.xml&customfile=true


Back to Index

Market Elements March 29, 2010 Research Comment Quantitative/Technical Research Mark Steele (416) 359-4641 [email protected] Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita

Equities advanced, yet index levels remained within the range of last week; the energy sector led on the back of a $2.50 gain in crude oil.

The bond market was relatively quiet; U.S. 10-year treasuries traded another inside day.

The Australian dollar led a broad-based advance against the U.S. dollar – this commodity currency also benefits from a large yield differential and hawkish RBA governor – BMOChart.

Metals and Energy (ex natural gas of course) led a broad based commodity rally.

Levels* Currencies (USD per) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmark Equity Indices & Sentiment

Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level Chg Symbol H/L Level %ChgDXY 81.27 -0.5% . 3.87 0.02

R nada 3.58 0.023.84 -0.8%

P

966 -0.1%6.29 0.09

.

stralia 5.79 0.052.71 0.00

281.00 -3.1% ia 1.03 49%rn n 1.41 0.02

DJ UBS 132.07 1.8% U.S S&P 1200 1,347 0.6%EU 1.3479 0.5% WTI Oil 82.42 3.0% Ca S&P 500 1,173 0.6%CHF 0.9412 0.3% NMX Gas Germany 3.13 -0.02 S&P/TSX 12,030 0.6%GB 1.4982 0.6% Gold 1,110.7 0.3% France 3.46 -0.02 Euro STOXX 2,947 0.2%JPYx10 0.1082 0.1% Silver 17.38 2.8% Switzerland 1.91 -0.00 FTSE 100 5,711 0.1%CAD 0.9793 0.5% Platinum 1,627.0 1.9% Italy 3.92 -0.00 Hang Seng 21,237 0.9%AUD 0.9173 1.5% Palladium 473.5 3.4% Spain 3.83 -0.01 Topix

NZD 0.7102 0.9% CMX Cu H 352.95 4.0% Greece S&P/ASX 4,897 0.0%BRL 0.5565 1.3% LME Al 3m 1.04 2.8% U.K 3.98 -0.06 Shang/Shen 3,359 2.6%MXNx10 H 0.8039 0.5% LME Ni 3m H 10.88 1.7% Au Sensex30 H 17,711 0.4%ZAR 0.1350 0.3% LME Zn 3m 1.06 4.6% Hong Kong CDX IG 5Yr 85.13 -2.2%KRWx10 0.8845 0.9% Lumber Ind 7.84 -0.03 TRINSGD 0.7149 0.4% Co 357.00 0.2% Japa VIX 17.59 -1.0%

Moves Currencies (spot) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmarks Equity Indices

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 8 to 9.

2.0%

JPY

CHF

ZAR

SGD

MXN

EUR

CAD

GBP

NZD

KRW

BRL

AUD

4.0% 2.0% 0% -0-0.05

U.K.

India

France

Germany

Spain

Italy

Sw itzerland

Hong Kong

Canada

U.S.

Japan

Australia

Greece

.100.000.050.10 1.0%0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.

Lumber

NMX Gas

Corn

Gold

LME Ni 3m

DJ UBS

Platinum

LME Al 3m

Silver

WTI Oil

Palladium

CMX Cu

LME Zn 3m

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

Topix

S&P/ASX

FTSE 100

Euro STOXX

Sensex30

S&P 500

S&P/TSX

S&P 1200

Hang Seng

Shang/Shen

Sectors S&P Global 1200 S&P Europe 350 S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

Info Tech

Cons Disc

Cons Stap

Hlth Care

Financials

Industrials

Utilities

Telecom

Materials

Energy

0.5% 2.0%0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

Cons Disc

Info Tech

Financials

Cons Stap

Telecom

Industrials

Materials

Hlth Care

Utilities

Energy

0.5% 1.5%0.0% 0.5% 1.0%

Industrials

Hlth Care

Energy

Cons Disc

Financials

Cons Stap

Info Tech

Materials

Telecom

Utilities

0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Financials

Cons Disc

Cons Stap

Info Tech

Telecom

Industrials

Utilities

Materials

Hlth Care

Energy

Source for all data and graphics in this publication: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, Thomson * H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- week High/Low; Colour codes are inverted for bond and sentiment indications

Market Elements

Daily Charts 3- Month View with 50- and 26- Day Moving Averages

Euro/Greece – Greece priced a 5bn euro 7-year bond – Bloomberg, FT

Aussie Dollar pivots higher on Hawkish RBA signal (next policy meeting April 6) – FT; the AUD is a rate differential driven currency – BMOChart

Breakout in copper follows the move in nickel on Friday

Currencies Commodities Bonds Equities

Page 2 March 29, 2010 (Back to Index)

Market Elements

Intra Day Charts 2-Day Tick View

Move in crude oil (WTI and Brent) was also in heating oil, and gasoline – around 9:30am (not FX, or press release related)

Currencies Commodities Bonds Equities


Market Elements

Daily Sector Charts 3-Month View with 50- and 26-Day Moving Averages

New Highs: U.S. – Industrials, Financials; Canada – Industrials; Europe – Materials

S&P 500

S&P/TSX Composite

S&P Europe 350


Market Elements

Market Movers – Largest Daily Percentage Moves

Global – Steel Moving Higher: Gerdau SA (GGB), Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA (SID); and commodities see Focal Points

U.S. – Southwestern Energy (SWN) pivots higher on New Brunswick land purchase – Rigzone, analyst (GS) upgrade - AP

U.S. – Broker Upgrades/Positive Reports: Expedia (EXPE), CB Richard Ellis (CBG)�

S&P Global 1200 ex U.S. & Canada S&P 500 S&P/TSX CompositeName Symbol % Chg Name Symbol % Chg Name Symbol % ChgSECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg

Energy Petroleo Brasileiro SA PBR/A US 2.2% Southwestern Energy Co SWN 8.0% Precision Drilling Trust PD-U 4.9%TonenGeneral Sekiyu KK 5012 JP 1.8% Massey Energy Co MEE 7.0% Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd AAV 3.8%

PetroChina Co Ltd 857 HK 1.6% Denbury Resources Inc DNR 4.2% Trinidad Drilling Ltd TDG 3.6%

Technip SA TEC FP -0.9% 0.4% Bonavista Energy Trust BNP-U -1.3%Santos Ltd STO AU -0.9% 0.4% ARC Energy Trust AET-U -1.5%

-1.6% n gy r BTE-U -2.3%

Tesoro Corp/Texas TSOConsol Energy Inc CNX

Cairn Energy PLC CNE LN ConocoPhillips COP 0.3% Baytex E er T ustSECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURI YT _NAME TICKER ChgMaterials Gerdau SA GGB US 6.0% Titanium Metals Corp TIE 6.0% Equinox Minerals Ltd EQN 6.8%

Cia Siderurgica Nacional SA SID US 4.8% International Flavors & Fragra IFF 5.1% SEMAFO Inc SMF 6.7%Mitsubishi Materials Corp 5711 JP 3.9% Allegheny Technologies Inc ATI 4.7% Teck Resources Ltd TCK/B 4.1%

OJI Paper Co Ltd 3861 JP Dow C Gabr

Orica Ltd ORI AU -1.9% Airgas Inc ARG -0.4% Jaguar Mining Inc JAG -1.5%

Nippon Paper Group Inc 3893 JP -2.3% PPG Industries Inc PPG -0.5% HudBay Minerals Inc HBM -1.5%

-2.9% hemical Co/The DOW -1.8% iel Resources Ltd GBU -3.5%SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER ChgIndustrials Obayashi Corp 1802 JP 2.6% Precision Castparts Corp PCP 2.6% Russel Metals Inc RUS 2.5%

SMC Corp/Japan 6273 JP 2.2% Iron Mountain Inc IRM 2.6% Finning International Inc FTT 2.4%Hochtief AG HOT GR 2.0% First Solar Inc FSLR 2.5% Bombardier Inc BBD/B 2.0%

Emerson Electric Co EMR

Goodrich Corp GRKonink PHIA NA Illinois ool W k n Ritch

Alfa Laval AB ALFA SS -1.9% 0.1% Aecon Group Inc ARE -0.5%

Renewable Energy Corp ASA REC NO -3.3% 0.1% IESI-BFC Ltd BIN -1.0%lijke Philips Electronic -3.5% T or s I c ITW -0.0% ie Bros Auctioneers Inc RBA -1.3%SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg

Cons Disc Li & Fung Ltd 494 HK 3.6% Expedia Inc EXPE 6.1% Dorel Industries Inc DII/B 2.2%

ITV PLC ITV LN 3.2% International Game Technology IGT 3.8% Quebecor Inc QBR/B 1.9%

Sanyo Electric Co Ltd 6764 JP 2.7% Apollo Group Inc APOL 3.1% Linamar Corp LNR 1.9%

Whitbread PLC WTB LN RadioShack Corp RONA Inc

Hyundai Mobis 012330 KS -2.3% Abercrombie & Fitch Co ANF -1.3% Sears Canada Inc SCC -0.3%OPAP SA OPAP GA -2.5% Ford Motor Co F -2.1% Thomson Reuters Corp TRI -0.8%

-2.6% RSH -2.8% RON -1.6%SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg

Cons Stap Seven & I Holdings Co Ltd 3382 JP 2.9% Brown-Forman Corp BF/B 2.6% Cott Corp BCB 2.3%

Wilmar International Ltd WIL SP 1.5% Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM 2.1% Saputo Inc SAP 1.1%

Centros Comerciales Sudamerica CENCOSUD CI 1.2% Avon Products Inc AVP 2.1% Alimentation Couche Tard Inc ATD/B 0.9%

Ajinomoto Co Inc 2802 JP Molso Empire Co Ltd

Shiseido Co Ltd 4911 JP -1.6% Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc DPS -0.4% Loblaw Cos Ltd L -0.6%

Yakult Honsha Co Ltd 2267 JP -2.0% Lorillard Inc LO -1.5% North West Co Fund NWF-U -1.4%

-2.8% n Coors Brewing Co TAP -2.1% EMP/A -1.5%SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER ChgHealth Care Roche Holding AG RO SW 1.5% Cephalon Inc CEPH 2.9% Biovail Corp BVF 2.8%

Nobel Biocare Holding AG NOBN VX 1.2% Boston Scientific Corp BSX 2.6% SXC Health Solutions Corp SXC 2.1%

Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co FME GR 0.9% McKesson Corp MCK

Eisai Co Ltd 4523 JP Medc

2.5% CML Healthcare Income Fund CLC-U -1.7%

Astellas Pharma Inc 4503 JP -2.8% Genzyme Corp GENZ -0.0% MDS Inc MDS -2.2%

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd 4502 JP -2.8% St Jude Medical Inc STJ -0.2%-3.4% o Health Solutions Inc MHS -0.5%SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg

Financials ORIX Corp 8591 JP 5.1% CB Richard Ellis Group Inc CBG 6.9% GMP Capital Inc GMP 2.7%

Shinsei Bank Ltd 8303 JP 3.8% E*Trade Financial Corp ETFC 2.6% Intact Financial Corp IFC 2.1%

Itau Unibanco Holding SA ITUB US 3.4% Morgan Stanley MS 2.0% FirstService Corp FSV 1.9%

Mizuho F 8411 JP Citigroup Inc Dundee R

Commerzbank AG CBK GR -1.8% KeyCorp KEY -1.8% Manulife Financial Corp MFC -1.0%

Alpha Bank AE ALPHA GA -2.8% Zions Bancorporation ZION -2.2% Primaris Retail Real Estate In PMZ-U -1.5%

inancial Group Inc -3.1% C -3.0% eal Estate Investment D-U -1.9%SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER ChgTechnology Hitachi Ltd 6501 JP 4.5% Amphenol Corp APH 2.3% Celestica Inc CLS 2.2%

Infineon Technologies AG IFX GR 3.5% Linear Technology Corp LLTC 1.6% Open Text Corp OTC 0.3%Alcatel-Lucent/France ALU FP 2.4% Corning Inc GLW 1.6% Research In Motion Ltd RIM 0.2%

Nintendo Co Ltd 7974 JP EMC C

United Microelectronics Corp 2303 TT -1.5% SAIC Inc SAI -1.8% MacDonald Dettwiler & Associat MDA -0.4%

Yahoo! Japan Corp 4689 JP -1.6% Novell Inc NOVL -1.9% CGI Group Inc GIB/A -0.8%-2.5% orp/Massachusetts EMC -2.7%SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg

Telecom Softbank Corp 9984 JP 3.7% American Tower Corp AMT 2.7% TELUS Corp T 0.9%Vodafone Group PLC VOD LN 3.0% AT&T Inc T 1.0% Manitoba Telecom Services Inc MBT 0.7%

Singapore Telecommunications L ST SP 2.2% MetroPCS Communications Inc PCS 0.7% BCE Inc BCE 0.5%

Qwest Communications Internati Q 0.2% Rogers Communications Inc RCI/B 0.4%

NTT DoCoMo Inc 9437 JP Windstream Corp

Cable & Wireless Communication CWC LN -1.3%SK Telecom Co Ltd 017670 KS -1.4% Sprint Nextel Corp S -0.3% Bell Aliant Regional Communica BA-U -0.7%

-2.2% WIN -2.4%SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg

Utilities Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras EBR US 4.0% AES Corp/The AES 3.5% Canadian Utilities Ltd CU 1.0%

EDF SA EDF FP 3.7% Sempra Energy SRE 2.6% Just Energy Income Fund JE-U 0.9%

Drax Group PLC DRX LN 2.7% EQT Corp EQT 2.3% TransAlta Corp TA 0.9%Brookfield Renewable Power Fun BRC-U 0.0%Osaka Gas Co Ltd 9532 JP -1.8% Constellation Energy Group Inc CEG -0.2%

Chubu Electric Power Co Inc 9502 JP -2.3% PG&E Corp PCG -0.4% Atlantic Power Corp ATP -0.7%

Tokyo Gas Co Ltd 9531 JP -2.7% Nicor Inc GAS -0.5% Northland Power Income Fund NPI-U -1.0%

Bold = move of more than 5%


Market Elements

Canadian Market Movers

Petrominerales (PMG) – analyst upgrade party on production report – BMO, CP

Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary Technology FinancialsSymbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %ChgPD-U 7.78 4.8% MX 25.89 3.0% BBD/B 6.00 2.0% MG/A H 63.33 0.0% XIT 7.63 0.2% XFN 23.68 -0.0%

123.04 -0.8% 9.89 -0.1% 59.45 -0.6% 72.19 -0.0% 18 -0.1% 75.57 -0.5%

05 -1.5% CX L 0.74 -8.6%26 -1.2% 96 -4.2% 23 -8.1% 61.75 -0.1%

28.15 -0.0% 25 -5.7% 15.20 -0.8% 13.93 -0.5% ZNN 2.00 -13.7% 61.90 -0.0%

50 -0.4% 18.16 -0.6% 24.25 -1.0%35 -0.3% 40 -0.4% 65 -0.3% 43.80 -0.7%40 -0.7%

11.17 -1.5% 6.70 -1.7% 13.87 -0.2% 9.50 -0.5% 16.95 -1.4%

IMO 11 -1.5%H 7.36 -1.2% 56 -6.6% 12.90 -0.1%C 89 -0.5% 11.35 -0.1%

12.11 -0.0% 1.52 -0.6% 10 -0.1%69 -0.6% 22 -0.3% .35 -4.8% 17.60 -0.5%

41 -1.3% 93 -0.3% 10.80 -2.7% X 29.20 -1.2%

71 -0.5% 9.10 -1.6%

14.14 -0.4% 15.40 -0.2% 32.00 -0.7%73 -4.0%

21.46 -0.6% 18.32 -0.9% 4.77 -0.2% 13.40 -0.7% 09 -4.6%

20.70 -1.5% K U 5.90 -0.1%AEM 18.02 -0.9%

55 -1.6%PBN 12.42 -0.2% 12.50 -2.7% 36.69 -0.8% 7.82 -1.0%

21.58 -1.0%WEW 0.58 -1.6%

34.25 -2.3% 11.08 -0.7% 13.31 -0.5% 2.22 -2.2% 60 -3.1% 3.27 -0.3%

23.51 -1.3% 30.24 -0.2% 20.08 -1.0%91 -0.6% 28.93 -0.2% 61 -0.2%

VNP 5.29 -0.7% 33.50 -0.4%

4.36 -3.5% 4.50 -0.2% 16.62 -0.1%75 -0.0% 34.61 -0.8%

61.75 -0.0% 18.72 -0.5% 15.60 -1.6%

35 -0.0% 5.21 -0.1% 16.70 -0.1%

72 -0.1%

16.31 -2.2% 19.14 -0.9%

90 -1.2%

3.59 -4.2% 90 -1.4% SC 25.85 -1.8% 15.05 -1.3%

08 -0.3% 9.23 -1.5% 12.23 -0.9%C C- 12.60 -1.7% 38.00 -0.6%

30 -1.0% 41.93 -0.2% 18.74 -0.8%

.61 -0.1% 83 -0.4% 30 -2.4% 13.33 -1.0% 21.49 -0.6% 51.54 -1.4% 17.39 -1.5%

5.36 -0.1% 18.05 -1.4% 12.67 -0.7%77 -0.6% 66 -0.2% 9.50 -2.0% 17.34 -0.3% 22.61 -0.8% 11.49 -1.1%

35 -3.2% 20 -0.9% RPG 7.40 -0.1%75 -1.2% 4.48 -2.1%

.74 -0.5%SEO 10.22 -0.4% 3.56 -2.1% 63 -0.5% MXY 1.47 -1.3%

42 -3.4%50 -0.8% SSO 17.92 -0.1% TTH 2.66 -1.4% 7.18 -0.8%

37.10 -0.2% 19.25 -0.0%AEZ 0.83 -1.1%

32.50 -1.9%35 -3.5% 12 -0.4%

09 -0.9% 26 -1.7% 18.40 -0.5% 14.67 -0.2%

49.59 -0.9% 11.50 -0.8%52 -1.1% 05 -1.2% 25 -2.0% 10.90 -0.1% BA-U 25.73 -0.6% 3.80 -4.7%

17 -2.1% MBT

53 -0.3% 89 -4.3%29 -0.4% 13.00 -1.7%

ESI 14.61 0.6% POT CAE LNR 18.98 1.9% OTC 48.78 0.3% RY TDG 6.95 3.5% AGU RNO 6. MRE 8.90 1.1% MN 3.80 0.2% TD SVY 6.98 0.4% CCL/B 28.73 0.2% VIC-U 16. WPT 16.78 2.0% BNS 51.09 0.0%TCW 13. CAS 8.32 0.8% WFI H 28.21 2.5% BLD 2. MMC 0. BMO SCL/A TCK/B H 43.19 4.1% SNC 49.97 0.2% AZD 0. GIB/A CM 74.97 0.0%MTL 16.17 0.8% IVN 17.45 3.8% ARE MTK 3.60 1.9% NA CFW 21. FM 92.56 2.0% GNV-U 27.80 0.2% DII/B 33.02 2.2% CTY CWB PSI 11. IMN 56.56 0.1% BDT-U 31. GIL H 27.05 0.5% MDA 37. LB FES 12. LUN 5.05 1.8% KHD US 14.95 0.0% GC 7.83 0.0% CSU H 42.85 0.2% MIC 26.91 0.0%TESO US EQN 3.79 6.7% CUQ 19.70 0.5% THI 33.65 0.1% DSG HCG 43.48 0.0%SU 31.95 3.5% S 8.28 1.4% SDC MTY CMG ETC 24.25 1.0%

38.99 0.7% HBM 13. CSIQ US 23.80 8.0% BPF-U 11.85 0.0% ESL 7.61 0.1% FN-U 21.79 2.4%SE 28.14 2.9% TCM 13.82 3.0% TIH 29.70 0.7% PZA-U ENA 0. MKP VE 25.54 1.7% QUA 15. NFI-U 11.02 0.5% AW-U 16.25 0.9% MKX H 12.04 0.3% FC-U

IOC US 63.98 3.1% FNX 13.92 0.4% AFN 36.42 1.7% KEG-U RKN HEQ 7.PVE-U 7. WTN H 6.12 3.7% ATA 7.21 1.5% CWI-U 5. TWT 3 DHF-U CLL H 1.62 5.1% NDM 9.44 1.6% ARF-U 21. AER 10.60 0.4% ABT 5. OCX H 28.65 1.7%CNQ 73.45 2.1% TKO 5.24 0.3% WJX-U H 27.38 1.7% MDZ/A BWC 10.00 0.0%ECA 30.99 2.1% ORA 3. GLV/A ACM/A 35.63 0.6% AXX 1.71 1.1% QC 1.30 0.0%TLM 17.21 2.0% MDI 25.45 2.5% FTT 18.29 2.3% CJR/B 19.74 0.4% RIM 77.26 0.1% CSF H 14.99 1.1%COS-U 29.30 2.4% GCE 8.30 1.9% SPB TVA/B AAH IGM H 45.53 1.1%NXY 25.05 3.5% CTQ 8.14 0.7% RUS H 19.98 2.4% SJR/B 20.15 0.0% DWI 9. CIX 21.31 0.5%PWT-U AVM 3.85 1.8% RCH H 23.65 0.3% CCA 42.42 0.1% WIN 2.79 2.9% AGF/B CPG 39.15 0.6% ABX 38.60 0.4% CWX CGO 33.99 0.4% SW 8.66 0.3% DC/A 13.57 1.6%UPL US 46.64 5.5% G 38.32 0.6% CVL CGX-U H 20.25 1.8% CDV 3.07 0.6% SII 4.AET-U 17.69 1.2% TCL/A 13.57 1.1% IMX H 18.05 2.9% RCM 19.70 0.0%PBG 55.10 2.1% 57.31 0.3% BIN LGF US 6.24 0.6% SVC 1.92 4.3% GS 21.80 3.4%NKO 106.40 3.0% YRI 10.22 0.6% NAL 9.02 4.0% FMN 1.65 0.0% VCM 6. PNP 1.79 5.9%

26.92 1.7% ELD MLX TRI EXF 6.49 2.2% GCG/A PRE 20.30 1.0% IMG 13.90 1.0% RBA US YLO-U 6.22 0.3% TZT 1.69 1.1% DW H 15.12 2.3%ERF-U 23.70 0.4% RBI 20.60 2.4% BDI H 20.40 4.7% QBR/B 35.05 1.9% GMP 14.20 2.6%BTE-U FNV 27.48 1.4% GW 11.25 0.3% TS/B 9.96 2.2% ET 14.10 0.0% CF PGF-U 11.61 0.0% CG MSI-U 10.34 1.3% GVC PUR 4. WES BNP-U OSK 8.79 0.9% STN 25.80 1.9% UNS CTW/S 2.00 0.0% MFC PMG H 34.10 8.1% IGT 110. IBG-U 14.50 0.0% SCC MT 4. GWO H 28.86 0.1%VET-U 35.34 0.0% NGD 4.43 3.7% WJA 13.70 1.1% CTC/A 55.10 0.2% PWF PRQ 11.54 0.7% AGI 14.00 0.7% TRZ/B 12.75 1.5% DOL 21.90 0.0% DSA 8.40 1.8% SLF 33.25 0.9%DAY-U 10.57 0.0% GBU JAZ-U RET/A CLS 11.34 2.1% POW 30.80 0.0%NAE-U 12. GAM 8.64 1.5% AC/B 2.18 3.8% CTU/A 13.71 1.2% SO 10.00 0.0% IAG PEY-U 13.41 1.4% SMF H 6.05 6.7% CNR GLN 15.15 0.0% MSD 23.40 0.3% FFH 374.25 0.0%BNK 9.23 0.0% DGC CP 56.60 1.6% RON GND H 6.60 2.4% IFC H 44.38 2.1%POU 16.15 3.5% NG 7.49 1.2% TFI 9.83 0.2% FGL 14. ZL 1.80 2.8% XRE 12.10 0.4%NVA 11.85 0.0% XGD 19.70 0.9% STB IDG 17.89 1.0% HR-U

AAV 7.08 3.8% EGU 6. CSS H 9.18 2.0% LNF 12.40 0.8% Utilities REF-U 28.16 1.3%UTS 2.50 0.8% LSG 2.62 0.3% WTE-U GBT/A 35.65 0.0% Symbol H/L Last %Chg CUF-U

BIR 8.74 3.5% RMX 3. Health Care Consumer Staples FTS 29.02 0.7% CRR-U H 12.05 0.5%CR 17.38 1.0% SGR 3.30 3.1% Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg EMA 24.64 0.7% AP-U 20.50 0.0%TNP JAG 9. IM 6.69 0.6% 43.60 0.0% GZM-U 16.30 0.3% D-U IE 3.44 2.6% GSC 3.91 1.5% EKO 1.32 0.0% PJC/A 9.93 0.8% CU H 49.10 1.0% WRK-U FRU-U 17.02 0.4% NGX 3. FMD-U GCL ACO/X 51.00 0.6% BEI-U H 41.60 0.6%CLT 19.46 0.9% SEA 25.01 1.0% L U L JE-U 14.30 0.9% CAR-U 14.56 0.1%QEC 4.03 2.0% VEN 9. DR-U 10.85 0.3% WN 70.78 0.7% TA 22.67 0.8% NPR-U H 25.20 1.2%LEG 13.55 3.1% R 1.93 1.5% SXC 69.67 2.0% MRU/A BRC-U 21.30 0.0% REI-U TET 8 ARZ 4. CNJ 4. ATD/B 18.54 0.8% NPI-U CWT-U PXX 2.63 1.1% CRU 0.46 4.5% TH 5.15 1.5% EMP/A CPA-U 17.98 0.2% PMZ-U BNE 36.80 0.8% JIN H 4.89 3.3% QLT NWF-U ATP MRT-U 13.86 2.4%PMT-U 4. MFL 9. BU LIQ-U CPX AX-U GO 6.94 2.6% XRC 6. ONC 3. BR-U H 17.00 0.4% 3.02 1.0% CSH-U CMF 7. HRG 0.72 2.8% HBP 2.70 0.3% CDL/A 15.43 0.1% AQN EXE-U 10.75 0.4%OPC 2.05 3.0% GBG 1 RVX 7.04 4.7% BCB 8.13 2.2% BLX 10.44 0.5% INN-U H 6.27 2.9%

SLW 15.97 2.0% NYMX US VT 9. BAM/A H 26.33 0.6%KEY-U 26.69 0.1% PAA 23.44 1.3% YM 1.19 0.8% ABC 1. IEF-U 12.10 0.4% FCR 22.20 1.0%PKI-U 11. SAP 29.38 1.1% MPT-U MRC H 46.99 1.0%TRP SVM 7.00 0.4% MDG 0.52 0.0% CBY 50.96 0.1% PCC 3.55 1.4% BPP ENB 48.71 0.3% ELR 1.46 3.5% MFI 10.47 0.5% BPT-U 4.55 1.1% PRK 5.51 0.5%

IPL-U 11.93 1.8% HW 10.07 1.4% BVF H 17.17 2.7% AGT Telecom Services BPO H 16.11 1.1%PIF-U 17.35 0.5% PPN 1. PLB H 24.95 3.9% RSI-U 4.95 0.2% Symbol H/L Last %Chg MIM/A 13.FCE-U H 10.80 0.0% GNA 7.82 3.0% COM H 6.73 2.4% BXI 1.88 1.6% PIX 1. KMP 8.ALA-U CLM H 9.22 2.2% DDS 1.57 3.2% PBH BCE 30.30 0.4% MEQ 10.40 0.0%CCO 27.94 2.0% LIF-U ANP 1.14 3.6% SOY 4.24 0.4% T H 37.73 0.8% MRD SGQ 16. TRE 19. NRI 0. HLF GDC UUU 2.71 2.6% WFT H 39.29 0.1% MDS 8. AG-U 2.75 1.8% 31.72 0.6% FSV H 23.22 1.9%DML 1.45 2.1% CFP 9.36 0.1% PTI 2. ATB 16.95 0.2% WRX 0. AIF-U 14.41 1.8%XEG 17.79 1.9% NBD 16. GLG 7.42 3.0% RCI/B 34.60 0.4% BRE-U

H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- wk High/Low; Blue = S&P/TSX 60 member, Italics = ETF, Bold = move of more than 5%


Market Elements

Earnings Expected Next Session

Company Ticker Country Sector Industry MktCap Period TimeCobalt International Energy Inc CIE US U. S. Energy OG E&P 4,540 Q4 Bef-mktChina North East Petroleum Holdings Ltd NEP US U. S. Energy OG E&P 230 Q4China Oilfield Services Ltd 2883 HK China Energy OG Drill 2,370 YGammon Gold Inc. GAM CN Canada Materials Gold 1,140 Q4 Bef-mktFronteer Development Group FRG CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 600 Q4Greystar Resources Ltd GSL CN Canada Materials Gold 490 Q4Farallon Resources Ltd FAN CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 270 Q4 Bef-mktEntree Gold Inc ETG CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 260 Q4Copper Mountain Corp CUM CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 220 Q4Western Copper Corp WRN CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 140 Q4Mountain Province Diamonds MPV CN Canada Materials PrecMet 140 Q3Globestar Mining Corp GMI CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 100 Q4Polaris Minerals Corporation PLS CN Canada Materials CstrMat 90 Q4Ivernia West Inc IVW CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 80 Q4 Aft-mktScorpio Mining Corp SPM CN Canada Materials PrecMet 70 Q4Commerce Resources Corp CCE CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 40 Q1

Westshore Terminals Income Fnd WTE.UN CN Canada Industrials MarineSrv 1,210 Q4Foremost Income Fund FMO.UN CN Canada Industrials CnstFmM 140 Q4

Uni-Select Inc UNS CN Canada CMR Disc Distrib 580 Q4

Bio-extraction Inc BXI CN Canada CMR Stap PkgFdMt 290 Q4 Aft-mkt

MI Developments Inc MIM.A CN Canada Financials REstOpCo 590 Q4 Bef-mkt

Exfo Electro-Optical Engin. EXF CN Canada Info Tech ComEquip 140 Q2 Aft-mkt

HB Fuller Co FUL US U. S. Materials SpecChm 1,130 Q1 Aft-mktGeovic Mining Corporation GMC CN U. S. Materials DvrsMng 70 Q4Mines Management MGN US U. S. Materials DvrsMng 60 Q4Kazakhmys PLC KAZ LN U.K. Materials DvrsMng 12,170 Y 07:00Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Ltd 2689 HK Bermuda Materials PapProd 7,680 S1Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd 2899 HK China Materials Gold 3,230 YJiangxi Copper Co Ltd 358 HK China Materials DvrsMng 2,960 YNufarm Ltd/Australia NUF AU Australia Materials Fert&Ag 1,730 S1 10:00Maanshan Iron & Steel 323 HK China Materials Steel 990 YIberian Minerals Corp IZN CN Switzerland Materials DvrsMng 160 Q4 Aft-mkt

Layne Christensen Co LAYN US U. S. Industrials Cns&Eng 540 Q4Team Inc TISI US U. S. Industrials EnvionServ 310 Q3 Aft-mktAdvanced Battery Technologies Inc ABAT US U. S. Industrials ElcCmpEq 260 Q4Hutchison Whampoa Ltd 13 HK Hong Kong Industrials IndCongl 31,910 YCOSCO Pacific Ltd 1199 HK Bermuda Industrials MarineSrv 3,540 YWendel MF FP France Industrials IndCongl 3,070 YTAM SA TAM US Brazil Industrials Airline 1,590 Q1Ultrapetrol Bahamas Ltd ULTR US Bahamas Industrials Marine 170 Q4 Aft-mkt

Charming Shoppes Inc CHRS US U. S. CMR Disc ApparlRtl 780 Q4Sealy Corp ZZ US U. S. CMR Disc HomeFurn 340 Q1 Aft-mktFuqi International Inc FUQI US U. S. CMR Disc Aprl&Gds 320 Q4Ports Design Ltd 589 HK Bermuda CMR Disc Aprl&Gds 1,540 Y

China Agri-Industries Holdings Ltd 606 HK Hong Kong CMR Stap AgriProd 5,520 YAnadolu Efes Biracilik Ve Malt Sanayii AS AEFES TI Turkey CMR Stap Brewers 4,660 YCia Cervecerias Unidas SA CCU US Chile CMR Stap Brewers 2,340 Q1

Forest City Enterprises Inc FCE.A US U. S. Financials REstOpCo 1,840 Q4 Aft-mktCheung Kong Holdings Ltd 1 HK Hong Kong Financials REstDevl 29,840 YCitic Securities 600030 CH China Financials InvBnkBrk 26,630 YBank of Communications Co Ltd 3328 HK China Financials DiversBnk 25,640 YHenderson Land Development Co Ltd 12 HK Hong Kong Financials REstDvAct 15,500 S1Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ Indonesia Financials DiversBnk 11,360 YCountry Garden Holdings Co 2007 HK Cayman Financials REstDevl 5,720 YBanco Popolare Scarl BP IM Italy Financials DiversBnk 4,500 YUranium Ltd UML LN Guernsey Financials AsstMgmt 120 S1

SAIC Inc SAI US U. S. Info Tech ITConsult 7,630 Q4 Aft-mktNeopost SA NEO FP France Info Tech OffElectr 2,520 Y Aft-mktLDK Solar Company Ltd. LDK US Cayman Info Tech Semi 920 Q4 Bef-mktManz Automation AG M5Z GR Germany Info Tech Semi 360 YChina Communications Services Corp Ltd 552 HK China Telecom IntegTelSrv 990 YChina Longyuan Power Group Corp 916 HK China Utilities IPPTrad 3,270 YPlambeck Neue Energien AG PNE3 GR Germany Utilities IPPTrad 120 Y

Red = Canadian incorporated, Blue = U.S. incorporated, Highlighted = S&P Global 1200 Index member


Back to Index

Please refer to pages 5- for Disclosure Statements.

Economic Research

March 30, 2010 Research Comment Dr. Sherry Cooper (800) 613-0205 Jennifer Lee (416) 359-4092 Carl Campus (416) 359-6792

A.M. Notes

Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist [email protected]

416-359-4112

NORTH AMERICA – Jennifer Lee The Day Ahead….. The state of the wavering U.S. housing market and consumer will be in focus today. At 9 pm ET, the closely watched S&P Case-Shiller house price index will be released for January. Home values remain below year-ago levels but the declines have become less deep……from a low of -19% in January of 2009 to a reading of -3.1% in December. In other words, less negative, which is one of the much-used phrases during this recovery. The month-to-month changes have hovered in the 0.2%-to-0.3% range over the past few months, which are slower than the 0.7%-to-1.1% gains seen over the three months prior, suggesting that the factors that had pushed prices up more significantly are now behind us (example: the possible end of the homebuyer tax credit). We’re expecting the improvement in house prices to head closer to the zero line (and that much closer to positive terrain) but no matter what the reading, the big unknown of how many foreclosures could flood the market will still be hovering in the background and thus, keep a lid on any sharper gain in prices. Even with the new homeowner assistance plans that the White House announced last week. Still, some deals will be seized before the April 30th deadline. See the housing story on page B1 of today’s New York Times….“Spurt of Home Buying as End of Tax Credit Looms: Nine hundred days after putting their house on the market, Andrew and Jane Palestini were beginning to think they might be stuck in Iowa forever. The looming expiration of the government’s housing tax credit pushed them into action. They dropped their price by an additional $10,000, to $235,000. Somewhat to their shock, a buyer emerged. The house is now under contract. After several disastrous months for home sales across the country, when volume dropped by 23 percent, the pace appears to be picking up again. These deals will be reflected in the national sales reports when they become final, this month or next. There is no evidence that prices have begun to move in response to the higher volume. Indeed, so many homes are coming on the market that prices might well fall further.” At 10 am, the Conference Board will release its survey of consumer confidence for March. The index is expected to pick up by 4 pts to 50 in the month, and while any improvement is welcomed, such a move would only retrace about half of the prior month’s hefty fall. Key to watch will be the net ‘jobs hard to get’ component, given that the March nonfarm payroll #s are out on Friday. Although this component rose in February (bad news), the jobless rate was unchanged at 9.7%. Another increase in the hard to get series will suggest that the jobless rate is heading higher again after topping out in October. Also, keep an eye on the expectations component, as it would give a good hint on buying intentions in coming months…on big-ticket items such as cars and homes, other smaller durable goods such as air conditions, vacuum cleaners, washer/dryers, etc…..as well as on non-discretionary expenses such as vacations.

mailto:[email protected]

Sector Comment Economic Research

Provincial Budget Update: In Canada, the provincial budgets continue to roll in. This week, it is Newfoundland & Labrador, along with Quebec. After this, leaves Nova Scotia and PEI. Yesterday, Newfoundland & Labrador reported their new numbers for FY2010/11. According to our Robert Kavcic, the Province “is forecasting a reduced $194.3 mln deficit (0.8% of GDP) for FY2010/11, as rebounding offshore oil revenues offset still-strong spending growth. The deficit is an improvement from the $294.9 mln shortfall now estimated for FY2009/10, which marks another major oil-fuelled improvement ($148 mln) from December’s update. Going forward, the Province expects to post deficits averaging $175 mln in each of the next two fiscal years, as revenues and program spending both post sturdy increases.” Today, Quebec takes its turn in the spotlight. Our Benjamin Reitzes cautioned in Focus last week not to “anticipate many goodies, if any, in what will be a “slim” budget according to Quebec Finance Minister Raymond Bachand. The latest provincial forecast has the deficit holding steady at $4.7 bln (1.5% of GDP) in 2010/11. Look for some clarity on the savings measures that were yet to be identified in last year’s budget, as they remain a significant wild card. Expect a 1 ppt hike in the QST, and some increased user fees, as outlined in the 2009/10 budget, which will boost revenues and bring Quebec towards its goal of a balanced budget by 2013/14.” Canada’s industrial product prices for February are released at 8:30 am. Look for prices that are leaving the factory gate to be little changed as the CAD softened a little, on average, in the month. Paul Jenkins did not put in his two cents on monetary policy during his speech yesterday to the Economic Club of Canada in Toronto, but the BoC’s Deputy Governor did address a longer-term issue……productivity. Calling Canada’s track record of investing in modern, productivity-enhancing equipment and structures ‘not…impressive”, he stressed the importance of Canadian companies to boost productivity, given healthy corporate balance sheets, good profitability, the profits-to-GDP ratio back to its long-term average, low leverage ratios and high liquidity. Our Sherry Cooper also weighed in recently with her views on “Canada’s Disturbing Productivity Performance”. See (Link to Article) Backgrounders: “Mortgage rate boost signals rock-bottom era is over: Canadian banks delivered the first clear sign that the era of rock-bottom interest rates is over by suddenly hiking mortgage rates, a move that will cost Canadians more to finance home purchases and likely hasten an expected slowdown of the red-hot housing sector. Surging home sales and prices were already expected to cool in the second half of this year as more listings hit the market and the Harmonized Sales Tax adds to purchase costs in Ontario and British Columbia. Hikes on fixed-rate mortgages announced by three banks Monday are expected to contribute to the slowdown as home buyers face higher costs amid a growing expectation that interest rates are likely entering a phase of higher levels.” Globe and Mail, page A1 “Treasury hires M Stanley bankers to offload Citi stake: The Treasury expects to sell its 27 per cent in stake in Citigroup before the end of the year in an “orderly and measured fashion”, as it tries to turn a profit from one of the most high-profile government investments of the financial crisis. The Treasury said on Monday that it had hired Morgan Stanley bankers to handle the sale of about 7.7bn Citi shares, which it received in exchange for its 2008 bail-out. The government had hoped to begin selling its Citi stake last year, but when the bank’s share price dropped below $3.20 in December it delayed those plans amid fears that it might lose


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money on the investment. Since then, Citi shares have risen about 30 per cent, and at current prices the Treasury would make about $7.5bn in profits on the sale of the stake.” Financial Times, page 1 “State Debt Woes Grow Too Big to Camouflage: California, New York and other states are showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink — budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes, and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and harder to pay. And states are responding in sometimes desperate ways, raising concerns that they, too, could face a debt crisis.” New York Times, page A1

OVERSEAS – Carl Campus The USD index bounced off its weakest level in 4 days but still remains relatively soft this morning as the GBP leads the currency pack following some positive economic data. After falling to the lowest levels of the year last week, the GBP strengthened towards $1.51 after a final count on Q4:2009 GDP revealed that the U.K. grew slightly more than expected. In separate reports, the Nationwide Building Society said U.K. house prices rose a greater-than-expected +0.7% in March leaving prices 9% above year-ago levels, while the current account deficit unexpectedly narrowed in Q4 to 1.7 billion pounds from a revised 5.9 billion pound deficit in Q3 of last year. European markets started the trading session off strong but have since retreated and remain relatively unchanged (FTSE -0.1%, DAX unch, CAC unch). The EUR followed the same trajectory and also remains flat on the day. Commodity prices are mixed this morning… Gold +0.1%… Oil and NatGas +0.1%… Copper +0.4%.... Grains +0.3-0.9%... In Asia… Industrial production in Japan snapped a streak of 11 months of gains, falling 0.9% in February. While a decline in output was expected, the magnitude was almost double the consensus estimate (-0.5%). Another report showed Japan’s jobless rate held steady at 4.9% in February after peaking in mid-2009. The Nikkei managed a healthy gain of 1.0% on Tuesday while the JPY softened in early morning trading. China’s Chen Says Stronger Yuan Can’t Solve Trade Gap… “Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming said increasing the value of the yuan won’t overcome the lopsided trade with the U.S., and urged American policy makers to avoid confrontation.” Bloomberg (Link to Article) Banks come under fire in TV clash… “Britain’s would-be chancellors declared open season on bankers on Monday night, in a televised pre-election debate that saw the three contenders for Number 11 pour scorn on alleged greed in the financial services sector.” Financial Times (Link to Article) Ireland to launch €81bn bad loan bank… “Ireland will on Tuesday begin operating a new “bad bank” to house €81bn in bad property loans left over from the financial crisis and set out new capital requirements that are expected to see the further nationalisation of its banking sector.” Financial Times (Link to Article)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6IXkjChu7CY

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/053fdb58-3b7a-11df-a4c0-00144feabdc0.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/880ec946-3b6a-11df-b622-00144feabdc0.html


Currency Market Current Change High Low

7:01 AMUS$ Index 81.18 -0.18 81.283 81.006C$ 1.0189 -0.0022 1.0222 1.0180C$ (US cents) 98.15 +0.21 97.82 98.23GBP 1.5085 +0.0096 1.5090 1.4976EUR 1.3478 -0.0006 1.3533 1.3461JPY 92.54 +0.08 92.68 92.15A$ 0.9203 +0.0026 0.9212 0.9161CNY 6.8258 -0.0006

AM CHARTS

• Not Everything Is Going The Loonie’s Way • Good Consumer News…..For A Change • Eurozone Inflation Still Not Worrisome

ON THE WEB: (Link to Charts) (If your email application cannot directly open the AM Charts document, (1) copy the text of the appropriate link above, (2) paste it into the address field of your web browser, and (3) press the ENTER key.)


http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/amcharts/mar3010.pdf

BMO Capital Markets Disclosure Statements


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analyst's Certification As to each company covered in this report, each analyst hereby certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about the subject securities or issuers. Each analyst also certifies that no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients. Company Specific Disclosures For Important Disclosures on the stocks discussed in this report, please go to http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp Distribution of Ratings (Dec. 31, 2009)

Rating Category

BMO Rating

BMOCM US Universe*

BMOCM USIB Clients**

BMOCM USIB Clients***

BMOCM Universe****

BMOCM IB Clients*****

First Call Universe

Buy Outperform 32.2% 12.3% 38.3% 36.1% 47.9% 50% Hold Market Perform 62.6% 10.2% 61.7% 56.9% 48.9% 43% Sell Underperform 5.3% 0% 0% 6.9% 3.2% 7%

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as percentage within ratings category. *** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking

services as percentage of Investment Banking clients. **** Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets equity research analysts. ***** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking services as

percentage of Investment Banking clients. Ratings and Sector Key We use the following ratings system definitions: OP = Outperform - Forecast to outperform the market; Mkt = Market Perform - Forecast to perform roughly in line with the market; Und = Underperform - Forecast to underperform the market; (S) = speculative investment; NR = No rating at this time; R = Restricted – Dissemination of research is currently restricted. Market performance is measured by a benchmark index such as the S&P/TSX Composite Index, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, as appropriate for each company. BMO Capital Markets eight Top 15 lists guide investors to our best ideas according to different objectives (Canadian large, small, growth, value, income, quantitative; and US large, US small) have replaced the Top Pick rating. Other Important Disclosures For Important Disclosures on the stocks discussed in this report, please go to http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp or write to Editorial Department, BMO Capital Markets, 3 Times Square, New York, NY 10036 or Editorial Department, BMO Capital Markets, 1 First Canadian Place, Toronto, Ontario, M5X 1H3. Prior BMO Capital Markets Ratings Systems http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2009/prior_rating_systems.pdf Dissemination of Research Our research publications are available via our web site http://bmocapitalmarkets.com/research/. Institutional clients may also receive our research via FIRST CALL, FIRST CALL Research Direct, Reuters, Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, and TheMarkets.com. All of our research is made widely available at the same time to all BMO Capital Markets client groups entitled to our research. Additional dissemination may occur via email or regular mail. Please contact your investment advisor or institutional salesperson for more information. Conflict Statement A general description of how BMO Financial Group identifies and manages conflicts of interest is contained in our public facing policy for managing conflicts of interest in connection with investment research which is available at http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Conflict_Statement_Public.asp

BMO Capital Markets Disclosure Statements


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BMO_Research Highlights Mar 30

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