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Biz barcelona 061511
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Steve Blank
www.steveblank.com
Twitter: @sgblank
Six Ways to Fail at a Startup
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Steve Blank
www.steveblank.com
Twitter: @sgblank
Six Ways to Fail at a StartupAnd How to Get it Right
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This Talk is Based On• Business Model Generation• Four Steps to the Epiphany
• Lean Startup
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I Have a Vision
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I Know What Needs to Be Done
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Lets Start A Company!
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Six Ways to Fail
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#1 I Know Who The Customer Is
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#2I Know Exactly the Product They Need
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#3I Know the Problem They Have
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#4We Can Fix It After We Ship It All
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#5All I Need to Do is Execute the Plan
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#6Let’s Use Large Company Tools
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Product Introduction Model
Concept/Seed
Round
Product Dev.
Alpha/Beta Test
Launch/1st Ship
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Product Introduction Model
Concept/Seed
Round
Product Dev.
Alpha/Beta Test
Launch/1st Ship
The Leading Cause of Startup Death
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Product Introduction Model:Two Implicit Assumptions
Customer Problem: known
Product Features: known
Concept/Seed
Round
Product Dev.
Alpha/Beta Test
Launch/1st Ship
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Tradition – Hire Marketing
Concept/Seed
Round
Product Dev.
Alpha/Beta Test
Launch/1st Ship
- Create Marcom Materials- Create Positioning
- Hire PR Agency- Early Buzz
- Create Demand- Launch Event- “Branding”
Marketing
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Tradition – Hire Sales
Concept/Seed
Round
Product Dev.
Alpha/Beta Test
Launch/1st Ship
- Create Marcom Materials- Create Positioning
- Hire PR Agency- Early Buzz
- Create Demand- Launch Event- “Branding”
• Build Sales Organization
Marketing
Sales• Hire Sales VP• Hire 1st Sales
Staff
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Tradition – Hire Bus Development
Concept Product Dev.
Alpha/Beta Test
Launch/1st Ship
- Create Marcom Materials- Create Positioning
- Hire PR Agency- Early Buzz
- Create Demand- Launch Event- “Branding”
• Hire Sales VP• Pick distribution
Channel
• Build Sales Channel / Distribution
Marketing
Sales
• Hire First Bus Dev
• Do deals for FCS
Business Development
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Tradition – Hire Engineering
Concept Product Dev.
Alpha/Beta Test
Launch/1st Ship
- Create Marcom Materials- Create Positioning
- Hire PR Agency- Early Buzz
- Create Demand- Launch Event- “Branding”
• Hire Sales VP• Pick distribution
Channel
• Build Sales Channel / Distribution
Marketing
Sales
• Hire First Bus Dev
• Do deals for FCS
Business Development
Engineering • Write MRD
• Waterfall
• Q/A • Tech Pubs
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Startups Are Not Smaller Versions of Large Companies
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A Startup is a temporary organization
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A Startup is a temporary organization designed to search
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A Startup is a temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable and
scalable business model
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Startups need their own tools, different from those used
in existing companies
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Startups need their own tools, different from those used
in existing companies
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Startups Are Not Smaller Versions of Large Companies
Large Companies Execute Known Business Models
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Startups Are Not Smaller Versions of Large Companies
Startups Search for Unknown Business Models
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So Search for a Business Model
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The Business Model:
Any company can be described in 9 building blocks
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CUSTOMER SEGMENTS
which customers and users are you serving? which jobs do they really want to get done?
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VALUE PROPOSITIONS
what are you offering them? what is that getting done for them? do they care?
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CHANNELS
how does each customer segment want to be reached? through which interaction points?
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CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS
what relationships are you establishing with each segment? personal? automated? acquisitive? retentive?
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REVENUE STREAMS
what are customers really willing to pay for? how? are you generating transactional or recurring
revenues?
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KEY RESOURCES
which resources underpin your business model? which assets are essential?
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37
KEY ACTIVITIES
which activities do you need to perform well in your business model? what is crucial?
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KEY PARTNERS
which partners and suppliers leverage your model?
who do you need to rely on?
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COST STRUCTURE
what is the resulting cost structure? which key elements drive your costs?
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40images by JAM
customer segments
key partners
cost structure
revenue streams
channels
customer relationships
key activities
key resources
value proposition
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sketch out your business model
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But,Realize They’re Hypotheses
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But,Realize They’re Hypotheses
Guesses
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9 Guesses
Guess Guess
Guess
Guess
GuessGuess
Guess
GuessGuess
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How Do Startups Search For A Business Model?
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There are no facts inside your building
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There are no facts inside your building
So Get Outside
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Customer Development = process to search
Business Model Canvas is the Scorecard
Agile Engineering is How We Build Startups
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Customer Development =process to search
Business Model Canvas =the Scorecard
Agile Engineering is How We Build Startups
• Research Labs
• Equipment Manufacturers
• Distribution Network
• Service Providers
• Technology Design
• Marketing
• Demo and customer feedback
• Cost Reduction
• Remove labor force pains
• Eliminate bio-waste hazards
• IP – Patents
• Video Classifier Files
• Robust Technology
• Farming conventions.
• Demo, demo, and demo!!
• Proximity is paramount
• Organic Farmers
• Weeding Service Providers
• Conventional Farmers
• Dealers• Direct
Service• Indirect
Service• … then
Dealers
• Asset Sale• Direct Service with
equipment rental• … then Asset Sale
Value-Driven
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Customer Development is the process used to search
Business Model Canvas is the Scorecard
Agile Development is How We Build Startups
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Customer Development
Get Out of the BuildingThe founders
^
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Customer DevelopmentThe Search For the Business Model
CompanyBuilding
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
Customer Creation
Pivot
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• Stop selling, start listening• Test your hypotheses• Continuous Discovery• Done by founders
Customer Discovery
CustomerDiscovery
CustomerValidation
CompanyBuilding
CustomerCreation
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Test Hypotheses:• Product• Market Type• Competition
Turning Hypotheses to Facts
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Test Hypotheses:• Problem• Customer• User• Payer
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Test Hypotheses:• Channel
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Test Hypotheses:• Problem• Customer• User• Payer
Test Hypotheses:• Demand
Creation
Test Hypotheses:• Channel
Test Hypotheses:• Product• Market Type• Competitive
Test Hypotheses:• Pricing Model / Pricing
Test Hypotheses:• Size of Opportunity/Market• Validate Business Model
Test Hypotheses:• Channel• (Customer)• (Problem)
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Test Hypotheses:• Problem• Customer• User• Payer
Test Hypotheses:• Demand
Creation
Test Hypotheses:• Channel
Test Hypotheses:• Product• Market Type• Competitive
Test Hypotheses:• Pricing Model / Pricing
Test Hypotheses:• Size of Opportunity/Market• Validate Business Model
Test Hypotheses:• Channel• (Customer)• (Problem) Customer
Development Team
Agile Development
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The Minimum Viable Product (MVP)
• Smallest feature set that gets you the most …orders, learning, feedback, failure…
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The Pivot
• The heart of Customer Development
• Iteration without crisis
• Fast, agile and opportunistic
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How Does This Really Work?
Lean LaunchPad Class
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How Does This Really Work?
Lean LaunchPad Class
8 Weeks From an Idea to a Business
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Pivot ExampleRobotic Weeding
Talked 75 Customers in 8 Weeks
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Our initial plan
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20 interviews, 6 site visits…We got OUR Boots dirty
WeedingVisited farms in Salinas Valley to better understand problemInterviewed:• Bolthouse Farms, Large Agri-Industry in Bakersfield• White Farms, Large Peanut farmer in Georgia• REFCO Farms, large grower in Salinas Valley• Rincon Farms, large grower in Salinas Valley• Small Organic Corn/Soy grower in Nebraska• Heirloom Organics, small owner/operator, Santa Cruz Mts• Two small organic farmers at farmers market• Ag Services of Salinas, Fertilizer applicator
MowingInterviewed:• Golf: Stanford Golf course • Parks: Stanford Grounds Supervisor, head of maintenance and
lead operator (has crew of 6)• Toro dealer (large mower manufacturer) • User of back-yard mowing system• Maintenance Services for City of Los Altos• Colony Landscaping (Mowing service for stadiums)
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Business Plan Autonomous Vehicles for Mowing & Weeding
We reduce operating cost- Labor reduction- Better utilization of assets (eg mow or weed at nights)- Improved performance (less rework, food safety)
Mowing- Owners of public or commercially used green spaces (e.g. golf courses)- Landscaping service provider
Weeding- Farmers with manual weeding operations
Dealers sell, installs and supports customer
Co. trains dealers, supports dealers
- Mowing Dealers- Ag Dealers
- Innovation- Customer Education- Dealer training
Dealer discount COGS seek a 50-60% Gross MarginHeavy R&D investment
- Dealers (Mowing and Ag)- Vehicle OEMs (John Deere, Toro, Jacobsen, etc)
- Research labs
Asset saleOur revenue stream derives from selling the equipment
Engineers on Autonomous vehicles, GPS, path-planning
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Autonomous vehicles WEEDING
We reduce operating cost- Labor reduction (100 to 1)- Reduced risk of contamination- Mitigate labor availability concerns
- Low density vegetable growers- High density vegetable growers- Thinning operations- Conventional vegetables
Dealers sell, installs and supports customer
Co. trains dealers, supports dealers
- Ag Dealers- Ag Service providers
- Innovation- Customer Education- Dealer training
Dealer discount COGS seek a 50-60% Gross MarginHeavy R&D investment
- Ag Dealers- Ag Service providers
- Research labs
Asset saleOur revenue stream derives from selling the equipment
Engineers on Machine VisionTwo problems:- Identification- Elimination
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1 Week – 1 CarrotBot
Confidential
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The Business Plan Canvas Updated
• Research Labs
• Equipment Manufacturers
• Distribution Network
• Service Providers
• Technology Design
• Marketing• Demo and
customer feedback
• Cost Reduction
• Remove labor force pains
• Eliminate bio-waste hazards
• IP – Patents• Video
Classifier Files
• Robust Technology
• Farming conventions.
• Demo, demo, and demo!!
• Proximity is paramount
• Organic Farmers
• Weeding Service Providers
• Conventional Farmers
• Dealers• Direct Service• Indirect
Service• … then
Dealers• Asset Sale• Direct Service
with equipment rental
• … then Asset Sale
Value-Driven
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The Business Plan Canvas Updated
• Research Labs
• Equipment Manufacturers
• Distribution Network
• Service Providers
• Technology Design
• Marketing• Demo and
customer feedback
• Cost Reduction
• Remove labor force pains
• Eliminate bio-waste hazards
• IP – Patents• Video
Classifier Files
• Robust Technology
• Farming conventions.
• Demo, demo, and demo!!
• Proximity is paramount
• Mid/Large Organic Farmers
• Agricultural corporations
• Weeding Service Providers
• Mid/Large Conventional Farmers
• Direct Service• Indirect
Service• … then
Dealers
• Direct Service with equipment rental
• ($1,500/d; 120d/yr )• Low density:
$1,500/d• High density:
$6,000/d
Value-Driven
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World Ag Expo interviews:the need is real and wide spread
• 10+ interviews at show– Everyone confirmed the need– Robocrop, UK based, crude
competitor sells for $171 K
• Revenue Stream– Mid to small growers prefer a
service– Large growers prefer to buy, but
OK with service until technology is proven
– Charging for labor cost saved is OK, as we provide other benefits (food safety, labor availability)
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The Business Plan Canvas Updated
• Research Labs
• Equipment Manufacturer
• Distribution Network
• Service Providers
• 2 or 3 Key Farms
• Technology Design
• Marketing• Demo and
customer feedback
• Cost Reduction
• Remove labor force pains
• Eliminate bio-waste hazards
• IP – Patents• Video
Classifier Files
• Robust Technology
• Farming conventions.
• Demo, demo, and demo!!
• Proximity is paramount
• Mid/Large Organic Farmers
• Agricultural corporations
• Weeding Service Providers
• Mid/Large Conventional Farmers
• Direct Service• Indirect
Service• … then
Dealers
• Direct Service with equipment rental
• Low density: $1,500/d
• High density: $6,000/d
Value-Driven• R&D• Bill of Materials• Training &
Service• Sales
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Autonomous weeding - Final
We reduce operating cost- Labor reduction (100 to 1)- Reduced risk of contamination- Mitigate labor availability concerns
- Low density vegetable growers- High density vegetable growers- Thinning operations- Conventional vegetables
Direct- Provide high quality service at competitive price
Direct - Alliance with service providers- Eventually sell through dealers
- Innovation- Customer Education- Dealer training
Costs for service provisionCOGS seek a 50-60% Gross MarginHeavy R&D investment
- Ag Service providers
- Research Institutes (eg UC Davis, Laser Zentrum Hannover)
- 3-4 key farms
Service provision- Charge by the acre with modifier according to weed density - Eventually move to asset sale
Engineers on Machine VisionTwo problems:- Identification- Elimination
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Thanks
www.steveblank.com
![Page 75: Biz barcelona 061511](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110306/554c1fdab4c905f1518b5566/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
I Write a Blog www.steveblank.com
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Personal Libraries
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Insight: No more bookshelves
Printed Books -20% YoY ‘10
eBooks+150% YoY ‘10
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Version 1.0: Personal Libraries
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Original Idea: Personal Digital Libraries
Import, organize and share thousands of digital papers
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something-something-something.com
Original idea
SHORT TERMResearchersLawyersScientists
LONG TERMAvid book readersProfessionals
Import, organize and share thousands of papers
FB/TW posts from users you know
Company blog, FB, TW, support forums
Affiliate program
SEO/SEM/SM
IE/FF/Chrome App Stores
Targeted marketing
Product development
Constant iteration & testing
DevelopersMarketers
Libraries, Universities, Research Centers
Bloggers and media targeting customer segment
Academic Database providers
Affiliate program feesLicensingSubscription feesAd revenue
AWS InfrastructureSEMEng & Marketing OpEx
Invincible Business Model: Version 1.0
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Here’s What We DidVersion 1.0: Personal Libraries
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Got out of the building
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Got out of the building
• 100+ Interviews
Professors, Litigators, IP lawyers, Post-docs, PhD researchers, Engineering Students, Law Students…
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Got out of the building
• 100+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys
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Got out of the building
• 100+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• 33,000+ Adwords
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Got out of the building
• 100+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• 33,000+ Adwords• Compete Review
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Got out of the building
• 100+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• 33,000+ Adwords• Compete Review• Market Sizing
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Got out of the building
• 100+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• 33,000+ Adwords• Compete Review• Market Sizing• 50 bloggers
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Got out of the building
• 100+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• 33,000+ Adwords• Compete Review• Market Sizing• 50 bloggers• 6 Social Networks
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Got out of the building
• 100+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• 33,000+ Adwords• Compete Review• Market Sizing• 50 bloggers• 6 Social Networks• Usability Tests
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Got out of the building
• 100+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• 33,000+ Adwords• Compete Review• Market Sizing• 50 bloggers• 6 Social Networks• Usability Tests• Rapid Iteration
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Here’s What We FoundVersion 1.0: Personal Libraries
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Here's what we found: Version 1.0
GOOD• Subscriptions Rock
A great business if we had more users…
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Here's what we found: Version 1.0
GOOD• Subscriptions Rock• Pipelines Optimize
Shorter pages raise conversions 80%
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Here's what we found: Version 1.0
GOOD• Subscriptions Rock• Pipelines Optimize• The Web Listens
Sites will feature your service
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Here's what we found: Version 1.0
GOOD• Subscriptions Rock• Pipelines Optimize• The Web Listens
BAD• Academics = Cheap
Teaching team saw pattern in our data
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Run away from this customer as fast as possible.
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Run away from this customer as fast as possible.
They don’t want to spend money and will incur infinite support and infinite cost.
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Here's what we found: Version 1.0
GOOD• Subscriptions Rock• Pipelines Optimize• The Web Listens
BAD• Academics = Cheap• Negative Margins
Working for peanuts, and hitting wild product success leads to economic failure
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Here's what we found: Version 1.0
GOOD• Subscriptions Rock• Pipelines Optimize• The Web Listens
BAD• Academics = Cheap• Negative Margins• ECM = Boring
No adjacent pivots worked for the team
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Version 2.0: Trusted Advice
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something-something-something.com
Original idea
Upwardly mobile young professionals making $2-10K of discretionary online purchases a year (excluding travel)
Discover online goods recommended by friends at the lowest possible price from trusted vendors
FB/TW posts from users you know
Company blog, FB, TW accounts
Affiliate program
SEO/SEM/SM
IE/FF/Chrome App Stores
Developing trusted advice and advisors
Web marketing
Affiliate partnerships
Constant iteration & testing
DevelopersMarketersContent LibraryInstall baseReadership base
Bloggers and Media targeting customer segment
Retail marketing partners
IE/FF/Chrome teams
Affiliate Program Providers
Affiliate program feesLicensingSubscription feesAd revenue
AWS InfrastructureSEMEng & Marketing OpEx
Invincible Business Model: Version 2.0
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New Hypotheses
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Here’s What We DidVersion 2.0: Trusted Advice
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Got out of the building, again
• 40+ Interviews
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Got out of the building, again
• 40+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys
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Got out of the building, again
• 40+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• Landing Page Tests
Landing pages tested on affluent, career aged professionals, approximately 70/30
male/female, N=800+
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Got out of the building, again
• 40+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• Landing Page Tests• Market Research
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Got out of the building, again
• 40+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• Landing Page Tests• Market Research• Compete Research
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Got out of the building, again
• 40+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• Landing Page Tests• Market Research• Compete Research• Revenue Analysis
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Got out of the building, again
• 40+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• Landing Page Tests• Market Research• Compete Research• Revenue Analysis• Two Prototypes
Insidely.com
wantio.com
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Got out of the building, again
• 40+ Interviews• Extensive Surveys• Landing Page Tests• Market Research• Compete Research• Revenue Analysis• Two Prototypes• Refined Personas
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Customer Segment: Professional-class consumers shopping frequently online
Pat the ProfessionalUpwardly mobile professional (some Grad Students)Salary: $40,000 – 150,000/yearFinance, Consulting, PR, MarketingFollows fashion/technology trendsSpends $1-15K on discretionary items onlinePurchased online in last 30 days
Demographics• Male/female, aged 18-35• Minimum bachelors from expensive schoolTraits:• Ideas from blogs & shopping websites • Values celebrity trends & friends’ opinions• Wants high ticket items at lowest price• Event-driven shopper—new release or sale
Motivation• Craves new products• Hates tedious work• Identifies as influencer among friends• Fears being cheated online
Behavior• Spends 5 hour+ monthly hearing about products • Shares online and in person about products he
lovesBudget• $2-10K+/year in discretionary online purchases
“The XXX is awesome, I really want one. I know I just bought the YYY, but it’s probably time to upgrade.”
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
~5.9M “Pat the Professionals” in USDrawn from top 1/3 of 17.8M frequent online shoppers17.8M based on 40.2M Professionals (2008 Census) * 0.762 US Internet Penetration (Nielsen 2010Q1) * 0.58 consumers shopping online in last month (Nielsen 2010Q1)
Online Recommendation Market Opportunity (conservative strawman #s)Assuming 10% share, 5% affiliate fees
Top Shoppers (~$7B/year spend): ~ $35M/year
Professional-class frequent shoppers (~$1.8B/year): ~ $9M/year
Other Professional-class shoppers ($0.7B/year): ~3.5M/year
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Version 2.0: Trusted AdviceTop ~6M US Influentials (~$9B/year)
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something-something-something.com
Original idea
Upwardly mobile young professionals making $2-10K of discretionary online purchases a year (excluding travel)
Discover online goods recommended by friends at the lowest possible price from trusted vendors
FB/TW posts from users you know
Company blog, FB, TW accounts
Affiliate program
SEO/SEM/SM
IE/FF/Chrome App Stores
Developing trusted advice and advisors
Web marketing
Affiliate partnerships
Constant iteration & testing
DevelopersMarketersContent LibraryInstall baseReadership base
Bloggers and Media targeting customer segment
Retail marketing partners
IE/FF/Chrome teams
Affiliate Program Providers
Affiliate program feesLicensingSubscription feesAd revenue
AWS InfrastructureSEMEng & Marketing OpEx
Invincible Business Model: Version 2.0
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Here’s What We FoundVersion 2: Trusted Advice
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Findings on "Trusted Advice"
GOOD• Fast Interest
Insidely.comTrusted advice site for Silicon Valley/Stanford MBAs
Launched 2/15
425 visitors by 2/28
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Findings on "Trusted Advice"
GOOD• Fast Interest
Ranked #6 by Google for “Stanford Admissions Books”
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Findings on "Trusted Advice"
GOOD• Fast Interest• High Conversion
43% clickthrough on Top Admissions Books for Stanford MBAs article
Compare to 0.5% clickthrough on ads
~100x difference
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Findings on "Trusted Advice"
GOOD• Fast Interest• High Conversion• Needs Addressed
Positive results on “Trusted Advice” Shopping Add-in testing
See videos at http://factnote.com/c/e245
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Findings on "Trusted Advice"
GOOD• Fast Interest• High Conversion• Needs Addressed
Super easy to install and use.
I really did enjoy it!
Great idea! I will keep the extension installed because I do think this is practical!
I could see myself using this regularly
Positive results on “Trusted Advice” Shopping Add-in testing
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Findings on "Trusted Advice"
GOOD• Fast Interest• High Conversion• Needs Addressed BAD• Missing Features
Some negative results on “Trusted Advice” Shopping Add-in testing
See videos at http://factnote.com/c/e245
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Findings on "Trusted Advice"
GOOD• Fast Interest• High Conversion• Needs Addressed BAD• Missing Features
Some negative results on “Trusted Advice” Shopping Add-in testing
I was a little frustrated when it didn’t find the item I was looking for
I can find more thorough price comparisons elsewhere…
I usually don’t shop in Chrome, so that’s an inconvenience.
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Findings on "Trusted Advice"
GOOD• Fast Interest• High Conversion• Needs Addressed BAD• Missing Features• SEO Battle
MBA Exchange spams us out of Google
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Here’s Where We Ended Up Version 2.1: Trusted Advice
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The adventure continues
Trusted Advice 2.0
Protection against SEO-spammers
Next Experiments: • Trusted Lead Gen • Trusted Advice
website powered by Shopping Add-in
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something-something-something.com
Original idea
PAT THE PROFESSIONALUpwardly mobile young professionals making $2-10K of discretionary online purchases a year (excluding travel)
TRUSTED ADVICE Discover online goods recommended by friends at the lowest possible price from trusted vendors
Foil advertorial spammers polluting the Interweb with toxic pseudo-content
FB/TW posts from users you know
Company blog, FB, TW accounts
Affiliate program
SEO/SEM/SM
IE/FF/Chrome App Stores
Developing trusted advice and advisors
Web marketing
Affiliate partnerships
Constant iteration & testing
DevelopersMarketersContent LibraryInstall baseReadership base
Bloggers and Media targeting customer segment
Retail marketing partners
IE/FF/Chrome teams
Affiliate Program Providers
Affiliate program feesLicensingSubscription feesAd revenue
AWS InfrastructureSEMEng & Marketing OpEx
Invincible Business Model: Version 3.0
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What We Learned
• Potential for disruption abounds
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What We Learned
• Potential for disruption abounds
• Life is short, focus on big markets
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What We Learned
• Potential for disruption abounds
• Life is short, focus on big markets
• All we need is to be relentless
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Thanks
www.steveblank.com
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I Write a Blog www.steveblank.com
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Carpe Diem
www.steveblank.com