Birmingham’s Local Climate Impacts Profile

(LCLIP)FINAL DRAFT

(source: Photos taken from BBC West Midlands, Tornado 2005, Heatwave 2006 and Flooding 2007)

By Reena KotechaProfessor John Thornes and Dr Lee Chapman

August 2008School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham.

Keith Budden BeBirmingham and David Ward Birmingham City Council

Contents Page

List of Figures, Tables, Plates and Appendices 3

Executive Summary 4

1. Introduction 51.1 Climate Change in Context 51.2 Purpose of Study 61.3 Aims and Objectives 71.4 Background of Birmingham 9

2. Significant Weather 112.1 Defining Significant Weather 112.2 Database 132.3 Intensity, Impacts and Return Periods 17

3. Weather Information 263.1 Weather Data 263.1.1 University of Birmingham 263.1.2 The Climatological Observers Link 26

4. Case Studies of Significant Events 274.1 Tornado, July 2005 274.2 Flooding, June – July, 2007 304.3 Heatwave, July 2006 33

5. Future Climate Change 345.1 Daily Mean Precipitation Anomalies 345.2 Daily Mean Temperature Anomalies 365.3 Potential Impacts of Future Climate Scenarios 38

6. Suggestions for Further Work 39

References 42

Superscript 44

Appendices 45

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List of Figures

Figure 1 Increasing Temperatures for Central England 5Figure 2 Map of Birmingham 9Figure 3 Number of Events Reported Per Year from 1998 to 2008 21Figure 4 Scale of Return Period Score Per Year from 1998 to 2008 22Figure 5 Frequency of Significant Weather Events 1998-2008 23Figure 6 Rank Order of Weather Events Grouped into Classes 24Figure 7 Frequency of Impact Categories 24Figure 8 Significant Impacts versus Significant Weather 25Figure 9 Location of Halesowen Weather Station 26Figure 10 Extract from Database for the Tornado July 2005 27Figure 11 Extract from Database for the June and July 2007 Flooding 30Figure 12 Extract from Database for the July 2006 heatwave 34Figure 13 Annual Changes in Mean Precipitation 34Figure 14 Winter Changes in Mean Precipitation 35Figure 15Summer Changes in Mean Precipitation 35Figure 16 Annual Changes in Mean Temperature 36Figure 17 Winter Changes in Mean Temperature 37Figure 18 Summer Changes in Mean Temperature 37Figure 19 Synoptic Conditions Christmas Pollution Episode in Birmingham 68

List of Tables

Table 1 Birmingham’s Climate 1961 – 1990 (1990 baseline) 11Table 2 Scale of Return Period of Significant Weather 12Table 3 Scale of Impacts of Weather Events 12Table 4 Scale of Multiple Significant Weather Events 12Table 5 Significant Weather Events in Birmingham in the Last 10 Years 13Table 6 Intensity, Impacts and Return Periods of Significant Weather Events 17

List of Plates

Plate 1 Impact of the July 2005 Tornado 29

Appendices

Appendix A Database of the Significant Weather Events in Birmingham, in the Last Ten Years 45Appendix B Interview Sheet 60Appendix C Halesowen Annual Summaries 2005-07 64Appendix D Air Quality 68

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Executive Summary

1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) concluded that emissions of greenhouse gases are very likely to be causing the observed increase in global temperatures, resulting in an increased frequency and magnitude of significantweather events. The Met Office Hadley Centre (2007) stated that it is of the utmost importance that organisations become involved in order to reduce future emissions and to adapt in order to prepare for the effects of past emissions. Climate change is a global and national issue that also needs to be tackled locally. Many local authorities are now committed to tackling the causes and effects of climate change, including Birmingham City Council. Birmingham’s Local Climate Impacts Profile is a resource to assess the impacts of climate-related events in Birmingham over the last ten years.

2. Seventy five significant weather events have been identified, from local newspaper archives, to have affected Birmingham in the last ten years. Some of which also affected the whole West Midlands region. The impacts, meteorological conditions, organisations affected and financial costs (where available) of the incidents were also noted. These events were then ranked in terms of intensity, impacts and return periods, in order to provide some weighting to the events in relation to each other. It was found that recent media sources contained more reported significant weather events and that more information regarding the impacts of these events was also found in the later years. The year 2007 also witnessed some of the highest return period events.

3. Meteorological data from the Winterbourne Climate Station at the University of Birmingham has been used to cross reference events. The database that accompanies this report focuses on events from 1998, due to the limited information available on the impacts of events prior to 1998.

4. The tornado July 2005 event, the flooding events of June and July 2007 and the heatwave of July 2006 respectively are the three most significant weather events that have affected Birmingham in the last ten years and have been investigated further. This was achieved by interviewing the Environment Agency, the Birmingham Resilience Team and the Highways-Drainage Department of Birmingham City Council. Adaptation measures, further impacts and financial costs were highlighted from conducting the interviews. However, due to time constraints, further extension work to this project has been suggested.

5. Should high emission scenarios persist in the future, Birmingham may witness increased winter precipitation and increased summer temperatures as soon as the 2020s. This will place increasing pressure on public and private services and organisations, such as the Environment Agency, the NHS and inevitably Birmingham City Council Services. Adaptation measures may now need to be explored further to prepare for the effects of past emissions. Decreasing current emissions is also a key priority for the Council.

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1. Introduction

1.1 Climate Change in Context

Climate is defined as the average weather experienced over a thirty year time frame andthe term climate change refers to the associated changes in the climate system due to enhanced global warming since the early 1900s (UKCIP, 2008). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) stated that anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations were very likely contributing to most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century (Figure 1). As a result, The Met Office Hadley Centre (2007), stated that tackling climate change will be one of the most significant things this generation will be involved with, as the climate in the future may increase the intensity of significant weather events such as heavy rainfall events, flooding, and heatwaves. Therefore, agencies across Government have collaborated to highlight the issues of climate change.

“The challenge is that climate change is not linear, the planet and all of us face uncertain consequences. We need to make sense of this challenge – not to scare or alarm but to present with scientific validity the probabilities of what might happen…”

Robert Napier, Met Office Chairman

Figure 1Increasing Temperatures for Central England(source: Met Office Website www.metoffice.gov.uk).

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The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) works alongside local authorities to assist them in adapting to inevitable climate change, as although it is vital to reduce further greenhouse gas emissions, it is also imperative to adapt to the effects of past emissions as they will continue to be felt for decades (UKCIP, 2008). Therefore, a Local Climate Impacts Profile is a resource prompted by UKCIP, which Local Authorities can compile in order to enhance their knowledge and reduce their vulnerability to significant climate-related events.

Birmingham City Council is one of many authorities who are a signatory of The Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change and have made a public commitment to tackle the causes and effects of climate change. The UK Government currently, is set to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60 % by 2050 from a 1990 baseline. In reflection of this, Birmingham proposes to set a target in reducing existing carbon dioxide emissionsof 6.3 million tonnes by 60 %, by 2026, to just below 2.8 million tonnes (Birmingham Climate Change Strategy, 2008).

1.2 Purpose of Study

The main purpose of the Birmingham Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) is to firstly, identify significant weather events that have affected Birmingham in the last ten years (1998 to 2008) and secondly, to assess the impacts of these events on Birmingham City Council and private services, incorporating any financial costs incurred and to highlight future climate scenarios and their probable impacts. Information gaps in this study will be inevitable and will be identified for further exploration. The city of Birmingham has been affected by numerous significant weather events, such as tornados, flooding and heatwaves that have affected the daily running of public and private sector businesses and services. The intensity and frequency of significant weather events is likely to increase in the future, as highlighted by The Met Office Hadley Centre (2007), and therefore, it is vital for Birmingham City Council services to adapt and to develop further resilience to the severity and extremity of these weather events and identify potential impacts of climate change on their services, based on previous events.

The process in compiling the Birmingham LCLIP involved the following. Firstly, local newspaper archives, BBC West Midlands and the Birmingham Mail and Post, were used in order to identify significant weather events from the last ten years and to highlight impacts and any financial costs of the events on public and private businesses and services. Significant air quality events were also noted. Meteorological data from the weather station at the University of Birmingham during these events were obtained in order to assess the locality of the events. A system was also created in order to rank the events in terms of intensity, impacts and return periods, in order to provide a weighting to all the weather events in relation to each other. Thirdly, interviews were conducted with Council directorates, external companies and public services, such as the Environment Agency, in order to obtain further information. Additional information was also obtained from numerous public services, for example from the West Midlands Business Council

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and the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce, in order to assess the events further in depth. Weather diaries from Mr. C.G. Roberts and meteorological information from The Climatological Observers Link (Weather COL) for Halesowen have also been explored. The tornado event of 2005 and the flooding events of 2007 have also been focused upon in particular however, due to time constraints the heatwave of 2006 was not considered in as much depth. However, this report will highlight extension work that may requirefurther exploration. Future climate change scenarios regarding changes in precipitation and temperature have also been investigated and therefore, the potential impacts on the services mentioned above have also been acknowledged.

1.3 Aims and Objectives

Project Objectives:

To identify climate related incidents in and in close proximity to Birmingham over the past 17 years.

To link those events with impacts on the council’s services and activities and investigate:

o People, Services and Departments/Service Areas affected

o People, Services and Departments/Service Areas who respond

o Far-reaching consequences, opportunities and financial costs

o Frequency and magnitude of the impact, what this is dependent on, and link this to climate trends

o Any adaptation measure implemented and any future adaptations appropriate.

To identify best practice elsewhere in the UK that has the potential of informing both current and future work.

To liaise with City Council partners, UKCIP and those currently undertaking similarwork; in particular those within the West Midlands Region.

To recommend a programme of further work that may be necessary to refine/take forward the LCLIP by the Council and its Partners.

To disseminate the methodology and results to City Council officers and other partners.

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Project Scope

The scope of the project will be investigated by vertical and horizontal explorations, resulting in a list of possible impacts and detailed research into one climate related incident. The key impacts and incident detail will be short-listed.

As a basis, the profile will follow a timeline:

Weather Event (e.g. lack/excess of rainfall)

Impact (e.g. subsidence)

Incident (e.g. road surfaces damaged)

Action (e.g. roads closed for resurfacing).

The profile will then explore the background and consequences of the incident, the costs and benefits of action, plus any opportunities or adaptation measures already started or possible.

The impacts will be restricted to those which are forecast to become more frequent in future. Incidents will be limited to those that have occurred in Birmingham, and environs if appropriate, over the last 17 years (between 1990 and 2007).

Project Deliverables (expected)

The project will result in:

A database/spreadsheet of climate related incidents, possibly modelled on the UKCIP Adaptations Impacts Database.

A report correlating the impacts with meteorological data and identifying those most relevant to future adaptation strategies. Plus identification of areas where there are information gaps.

A Local Climate Impacts Profile, detailing expected climate related impacts which will affect Birmingham in future. If possible, including a brief analysis of costs and benefits of potential adaptation measures.

Dissemination of the methodology and results.

Exclusions

Due to the short timescale available for the project; it will not investigate impacts that do not directly or indirectly affect Birmingham City Council (e.g. changes in biodiversity or other Be Birmingham Partners).

The project will not pursue a full evaluation of the policy implications of impacts or adaptation strategies, for the same reason, but will attempt instead to highlight areas of further research relevant to Birmingham City Council as well as other Be Birmingham partners.

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1.4 Background of Birmingham

1.41 Location of Study

Birmingham, a city and a metropolitan borough in the West Midlands Conurbation, accommodates a population of around 1,006,500 people and is composed of numerous constituencies (Birmingham City Council, 2007). The physical and built environment, as discussed below, demonstrates Birmingham’s vulnerability to extreme and severe weather events. This study therefore, incorporates all the extreme and severe weather events that have affected all Birmingham wards in the last 10 years, including Birmingham International Airport. Figure 2 demonstrates the area of study. Birmingham International Airport is not situated within the Birmingham constituency but, directly affects Birmingham and therefore, will be incorporated into this study. The airport islocated towards the south-east of Birmingham.

Figure 2Map of Birmingham (source: Birmingham City Council, 2004)

Due to the nature of weather systems, certain extreme and severe weather events and their impacts reported by various media sources will affect the whole of the West Midlands County and therefore, will include the city of Birmingham. Red denotes these particular events in this research.

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1.42 Physical Environment of Birmingham

The geology of Birmingham is mainly dominated by rocks of the Carboniferous, Permian and Triassic era. A recurring cycle of shale, sandstone, seat-earth and coal is repeated within the Carboniferous rocks, where a large volume of groundwater exists in this sequence. Collectively, they exert much influence on the topography of the region. Birmingham is situated on an upland plateau, as is much of the West MidlandsConurbation. The Tame-Blyth system is Birmingham’s main drainage component and eventually drains into the River Trent. The River Rea is the main tributary of the River Tame and the River Cole is a tributary of the River Blythe (Gerrard, 1996).

1.43 Built Environment of Birmingham

The city of Birmingham displays many characteristics typical of large cities. Birmingham, like many of these large cities, is therefore, demonstrating a substantial urban heat island effect due to increases in the development of businesses and residential areas over recent years. Weather patterns are being altered as roads and buildings, which contain large amounts of concrete, asphalt and bricks respectively, retain heat and are ultimately, making Birmingham warmer (Viner, 2007).

1.44 Present Climate of Birmingham

Birmingham’s climate can be described as a temperate, maritime climate, just like much of the UK. In reflection of this study, it is important to acknowledge Birmingham’s present climate and what the climate was like at the 1990 baseline and how it has changed since. Table 1 shows that the mean daily temperature in Birmingham has increased from 9.4 degrees Celsius (1961-90) to 10.0 degrees Celsius (1991-2007). Rainfall has also increased from 767 mm (1961-90) to 821 mm (1991-2007).

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Table 1Birmingham’s Climate 1961 – 1990 (1990 baseline) compared to 1991-2007(after: Giles and Kings, 1996)

Month Daily Mean Minimum

Temperature 1961-1990

Daily Mean Maximum

Temperature 1961-1990

Daily Mean Temp61-90

Daily MeanTemp91-07

Mean Total

Rainfall 61-90

Mean Total Rainfall91-07

January 1.8 5.6 3.7 4.5 70.4 68.4

February 1.5 5.9 3.7 4.8 54.1 54.4

March 2.7 8.6 5.6 6.7 62.2 50.1

April 4.2 11.4 7.8 8.7 57.6 66.3

May 7.1 15.1 11.1 11.6 64.4 62.5

June 10.1 18.3 14.2 14.6 58.7 69.2

July 11.9 20.2 16.1 16.7 55.7 66.7

August 11.8 19.8 15.8 16.6 72.1 65.1

September 10.0 17.2 13.6 13.9 63.9 68.7

October 7.6 13.4 10.5 10.2 62.3 87.1

November 4.1 8.7 6.4 7.0 66.7 79.4

December 2.7 6.4 4.6 4.5 79.0 83.4

Mean/Total 6.3 12.6 9.4 10.0 767.0 821.2

Substantial studies regarding the meteorology and climatology of Birmingham have taken place at the University of Birmingham and are listed in the study conducted by Anderson et al (2003).

2. Significant Weather

2.1 Defining Significant Weather

Due to the complexity of weather systems, truly defining significant weather is a subjective matter. However, some definitions have been suggested to distinguish between severe and extreme weather events. The UK Met Office (2008) has defined an extreme weather event as a rare incident, where the weather encountered lies quite significantly beyond the normal intensity expected for a specific locality. Severe weather is defined by the UK Met Office (2008) as an event that can often occur, which can be destructive and lies slightly beyond the normal intensity expected for a particular region.

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The IPCC (2001) has stated that an extreme event can be defined by maximum and minimum thresholds, magnitude, rarity and impacts and losses and therefore, due to this it is difficult to place an exact definition to an extreme event. Also what is extreme in one country may be normal in another. An extreme event occurs when individual local weather parameters exceed critical levels on a continuous scale. A severe event has been defined by the IPCC (2001) as weather associated with a specific climatic phenomenon, often requiring a critical combination of weather parameters.

As there are no commonly agreed definitions of significant weather for this study threescales have been devised to classify each significant weather event, firstly based on return periods (Table 2). The three categories of significant weather are Severe weather: defined as happening on an annual return period, extreme: on a decadal return period and catastrophic: on a century return period.

Table 2 Scale of Return Period of Significant Weather

Significant Weather Scale Return Period

Good Weather 2 MonthlyFine Weather 1 Weekly

Average Conditions 0 Daily

Poor Weather -1 WeeklyBad Weather -2 Monthly

Adverse Weather -3 SeasonalSevere Weather -4 Annual

Extreme Weather -5 Decades Catastrophic Weather -6 Centuries

Secondly each significant weather event has been classified according to the likelyimpact of the event (Table 3):.

Table 3 Scale of Impacts of Weather Events

AWarnings issued by organisations (e.g. Police, AA and Environment Agency).

B Disruption to services, with perhaps some additional warnings issued.

CDisruption to services and structural damage - natural and builtenvironment.

DDisruption to services, structural damage - natural and built environment and injury/death to individual(s).

Thirdly where more than one weather event is involved (Table 4):

Table 4 Scale of Multiple Significant Weather Events

S1 significant weather event with one weather factorS2 significant weather event with two weather factors.S3 significant weather event with three weather factors.S4 significant weather event with four weather factors.S5 significant weather event with five weather factors.

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It is important to acknowledge in this study that when considering the impacts of significant weather events, the weather event by itself is not always responsible for the level of impact encountered. Firstly, it is important to highlight that not all significant weather events result in a damaging outcome eg these events may only be destructive in rural areas where no-one lives. Secondly, even in urban areas location and the time of day can play a significant role in the severity of the impacts suffered and what may be classified as significant in one region may not be in another. Ground conditions and prevailing weather conditions can also have a dominant influence on impact levels. This is especially true in reported flooding events. Finally, it is also important to highlight that multiple weather parameters can be occurring in a single event and will result in various different impacts, which contributes highly to the overall impact of the incident. For examples heavy rain and flooding might be accompanied by gale force winds, high humidity and lightning .

2.2 Database

The table below demonstrates all the reported significant weather events that have occurred in Birmingham in the last ten years, using the BBC West Midlands, Birmingham Mail and Birmingham Post’s Media Archives. Air quality incidents have also been acknowledged. Appendix A shows this database in its entirety. It is important to highlight that not all significant weather events are reported, not all impacts are focused upon and those events with high return periods have more coverage in media sources.

Table 5Significant Weather Events in Birmingham in the Last 10 Years(source: BBC West Midlands, Birmingham Mail and Birmingham Post, 2008)Note that events in blue covered most of the West Midlands Region whereas events in black just Birmingham

Event Number Event

Date of Actual Event

(If Known)

Published Date of Report

Area Affected

1 Flooding 3rd March 1998 8th March 1998 West Midlands - River Severn, Trent and Wye burst banks.

2 Flooding26th September 1998

South and West Birmingham

3Heavy Rain 28th October 1998

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

4 Flooding 26th April 1999South and West Birmingham

5 Flooding 1st/2nd June 1999West Midlands and most of Birmingham

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6 Tornado 5th July 1999 6th July 1999Selly Oak, Birmingham

7 Heavy Rain and Severe Flooding.

8th August 1999

9th August 1999West Midlands -including Birmingham.

8 Storms3rd December 1999

3rd December 1999

Kings Heath, Birmingham

9Snow/Ice

20th December 1999

Midlands - including Birmingham.

10 Snow/Ice 3rd April 2000 4th April 2000 Birmingham

11 Flooding 6th July 2000 6th July 2000 South Birmingham

12Storms

29th October 2000

31st October 2000Midlands - including Birmingham.

13 Heavy Rain and Storms

5th July 2001 5-6th July 2001 Birmingham

14 Hot Weather25th August 2001

25th August 2001 Birmingham

15Snow/Ice

30th December 2001

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

16 Snow/Ice 1st January 2002 Birmingham

17 Fog 6th January 2002 Birmingham

18Storms

26th October 2002

29th October 2002West Midlands -including Birmingham.

19 Snow/Ice 6th January 2003 Birmingham

20 Snow/Ice 31st January 2003 Birmingham

21 Hot Weather 31st May 2003 1st June 2003 Birmingham

22 Heatwave 4-10th August 5-6th August 2003 Birmingham

23 Lightning 10th August 2003 Birmingham

24Air Quality

16th September 2003

Sandwell, Birmingham

25Drought

26th November 2003

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

26 Snow/Ice 29th January 2004 Birmingham

27 Storms 7th July 2004 8th July 2004 Birmingham

28 Hot Weather 31st July 2004 Birmingham

29 Storms5th August 2004

6th August 2004 Birmingham

30Heavy Rain 20th August 2004

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

31 Snow/Ice19-20th November 2004

20th November 2004

Birmingham

32Ice

26-27th December 2004

Birmingham

33 Heatwave17-18th June 2005

18th June 2005 Birmingham

34Storms 24th June 2005

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

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35 Lightning 28th June 2005 29th June 2005Birmingham

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Tornado 28th July 2005 29th July 2005

South-east Birmingham - Small Heath, Hall Green, Sparkbrook, Moseley, Balsall Heath and Kings Heath.

37Storms

31st August 2005

31st August 2005West Midlands -including Birmingham.

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Tornado12th October 2005

12-13th October 2005

Moseley, Birmingham. Associated weather affecting Sutton Coldfield, Northfield, Harbourne, Edgbaston, Sparkhill, Stirchley, Small Heath and Erdington.

39 Drought 2nd February 2006West Midlands -including Birmingham.

40 Snow/Ice24th February 2006

24th February and 3rd and 12th March 2006.

Birmingham

41 Air Quality 13th March 2006 Birmingham

42 Lightning 6th July 2006 6th July 2006 Birmingham

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Heatwave16th and 28th July 2006

19th and 27th July 2006, 9th August 2006, 9th November 2006 and 23rd April 2007.

Birmingham

44 Air Quality 25th July 2006 Birmingham

45Lightning

17th August 2006

17th August 2006West Midlands -including Birmingham.

46 Lightning11th September 2006

12th September 2006

Sutton Coldfield, Birmingham

47Flooding

14th September 2006

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

48 Flooding4th December 2006

5th December 2006Birmingham - Selly Oak, Edgbaston and Bearwood.

49 Fog21-22nd December2006

21st December 2006

Midlands - including Birmingham.

50Heavy Rain 12th January 2007

Midlands - including Birmingham.

51 Storms18-19th January 2007

Midlands - including Sutton Coldfield, Birmingham.

52 Snow/Ice8th February 2007

8-10th February 2007

Birmingham

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53Heavy Rain

14th February 2007

14th February 2007Midlands - including Birmingham.

54 Heatwave 14th April 2007 Birmingham

55Lightning 1st June 2007

Bordesley Green, Birmingham

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Flooding 14th June 2007 15th June 2007

Birmingham -Edgbaston, Sutton Coldfield and Birmingham City Centre.

57 Flooding15th June and 20th July 2007

16th June, 18th June, 22nd June, 21st July, 23rd July, 25th July, 25th September and 27th November 2007.

Birmingham -Sparkhill, Edgbaston.

58 Heavy Rain 25th June 2007 Birmingham

59 Lightning 17th July 2007 18th July 2007Hodge Hill, Birmingham

60 Heavy Rain 27th July 2007 Birmingham

61 Lightning 17th August 2007 Birmingham

62 Flooding24th September 2007

24th September 2007

Birmingham

63 Snow/Ice19th November 2007

19th November 2007

Birmingham

64 Strong Winds7th January 2008

7th January 2008Smethwick, Birmingham

65Flooding and Snow/Ice

12th January 2008

12th January 2008Birmingham - Kings Heath and Longbridge.

66 Heavy Rain18-19th January 2008

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

67 Snow/Ice29-30th January and 1st,15th, 20th February 2008.

Birmingham

68Strong Winds 31st January 2008

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

69Strong Winds

31st January 2008

1st February 2008 Moseley, Birmingham

70 Strong Winds 3rd March 2008Birmingham City Centre

71 Strong Winds 12th March 2008 Birmingham

72 Flooding16th March 2008

16-17th March 2008

Kings Norton, Birmingham

73 Cold Weather24-25th March 2008

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

74 Snow/Ice 5th April 2008 5-7th April 2008 Birmingham

75Air Quality 10th May 2008

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

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2.3 Intensity, Impacts and Return Periods

Tables 2, 3 & 4 demonstrate the ranking system that has been used in order to determine the intensity, impacts and return periods of the weather events shown above.

Table 6Intensity, Impacts and Return Periods of Significant Weather Events

Event Number

EventPublished Date

of Event

Scale of Weather

Event

Scale of

Return Period

Scale of Impacts of Weather

Event

1Flooding 3rd March 1998 S2 -5 C

2 Flooding 26th September 1998 S2 -4 C

3Heavy Rain 28th October 1998 S2 -3 A

4 Flooding 26th April 1999 S2 -3 B

5 Flooding 1st/2nd June 1999 S2 -3 C

6 Tornado 5th July 1999 S4 -5 C

7Heavy Rain and Severe Flooding.

8th August 1999 S2 -5 C

8 Storms 3rd December 1999 S2 -4 D

9Snow/Ice 20th December 1999 S2 -3 A

10 Snow/Ice 3rd April 2000 S2 -4 B

11 Flooding 6th July 2000 S2 -4 C

12Storms 29th October 2000 S3 -3 D

13 Heavy Rain and Storms

5-6th July 2001 S2 -3 B

14 Hot Weather 25th August 2001 S1 2 B

15Snow/Ice 30th December 2001 S2 -3 A

16 Snow/Ice 1st January 2002 S2 -3 A

17 Fog 6th January 2002 S1 -4 B

18Storms 29th October 2002 S2 -4 B

19 Snow/Ice 6th January 2003 S2 -3 A

20 Snow/Ice 31st January 2003 S2 -3 D

21 Hot Weather 31st May 2003 S1 2 B

22 Heatwave 4-10th August 2003 S1 -4 B

23 Lightning 10th August 2003 S3 -5 D

Air Quality 16th September 2003 S2 -4 B

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2425 Drought 26th November 2003 S2 -5 B

26 Snow/Ice 29th January 2004 S2 -5 D

27 Storms 7th July 2004 S1 -3 C

28 Hot Weather 31st July 2004 S1 1 A

29 Storms 5th August 2004 S4 -4 C

30Heavy Rain 20th August 2004 S1 -1 A

31Snow/Ice 20th November 2004 S2 -3 A

32Ice 26-27th December 2004 S2 -3 B

33 Heatwave 18th June 2005 S1 -4 B

34Storms 24th June 2005 S4 -3 B

35 Lightning 29th June 2005 S3 -4 B

36 Tornado 28th July 2005 S5 -5 D

37Storms 31st August 2005 S3 -2 B

38Tornado 12-13th October 2005 S3 -5 C

39 Drought 2nd February 2006 S2 -5 A

40Snow/Ice

24th February and 3rd and 12th March 2006.

S2 -3 B

41 Air Quality 13th March 2006 S1 -4 A

42 Lightning 6th July 2006 S2 -4 B

43 Heatwave 16th - 28th July 2006 S1 -5 C

44 Air Quality 25th July 2006 S2 -4 B

45Lightning 17th August 2006 S2 -4 C

46Lightning 12th September 2006 S2 -4 C

47Flooding 14th September 2006 S2 -4 B

48Flooding 4th December 2006 S2 -4 B

49Fog 21st December 2006 S1 -4 B

50 Heavy Rain 12th January 2007 S1 -3 B

51 Storms 18-19th January 2007 S2 -5 D

52 Snow/Ice 8-10th February 2007 S3 -5 C

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53 Heavy Rain 14th February 2007 S1 -4 A

54 Heatwave 13th April 2007 S1 1 B

55 Lightning 1st June 2007 S3 -4 C

56 Flooding 15th June 2007 S1 -6 C

57 Flooding 16th June S2 -6 D

58 Heavy Rain 25th June 2007 S1 -4 A

59 Lightning 18th July 2007 S2 -4 C

60 Heavy Rain 27th July 2007 S1 -4 A

61 Lightning 17th August 2007 S1 -4 C

62 Flooding 24th September 2007 S3 -4 C

63 Snow/Ice 19th November 2007 S3 -4 D

64 Strong Winds 7th January 2008 S1 -4 C

65Flooding and Snow/Ice

12th January 2008 S3 -5 D

66 Heavy Rain 18-19th January 2008 S1 -4 A

67Snow/Ice

29-30th January,1st, 15th, 20th February2008.

S4 -3 A

68 Strong Winds 31st January 2008 S1 -2 A

69 Strong Winds 1st February 2008 S3 -4 D

70 Strong Winds 3rd March 2008 S1 -3 C

71 Strong Winds 12th March 2008 S1 -2 B

72 Flooding 16-17th March 2008 S2 -4 D

73 Cold Weather 24-25th March 2008 S2 -3 A

74 Snow/Ice 5-7th April 2008 S5 -3 B

75 Air Quality 10th May 2008 S2 -4 A

Key:Scale of Multiple Significant Weather Events

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S1 significant weather event with one weather factorS2 significant weather event with two weather factors.S3 significant weather event with three weather factors.S4 significant weather event with four weather factors.S5 significant weather event with five weather factors.

Scale of Return Period

Good Weather 2 MonthlyFine Weather 1 Weekly

Average Conditions 0 Daily

Poor Weather -1 WeeklyBad Weather -2 Monthly

Adverse Weather -3 SeasonalSevere Weather -4 Annual

Extreme Weather -5 Decades Catastrophic Weather -6 Centuries

Scale of Impacts of Weather Events

AWarnings issued by organisations (e.g. Police, AA and Environment Agency).

B Disruption to services, with perhaps some additional warnings issued.

CDisruption to services and structural damage - natural and built environment.

DDisruption to services, structural damage - natural and built environment and injury/death to individual(s).

Figure 3 demonstrates that generally the number of reported significant weather events per year have increased in the last decade. However, it must be acknowledged that only

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half of 2008 has passed by yet and also, more information is available on recent year’s events. The intensity of the extreme or severe weather event has been determined in this case by the number of weather parameters involved in the incident (scale of weather event). Table 4 shows that prior to 2005, the number of weather parameters contributing to an extreme event was minimal. However, from 2005 onwards the number of weather parameters involved in an extreme event has increased. Generally, the severe weather events that have affected Birmingham in the last 10 years have had multiple weather variables interacting however, more recently, the significant weather event itself has been responsible in causing significant impact. The scale of impacts of the weather events highlighted above demonstrates generally that significant disruption, damage and casualties have increased and impact levels have intensified from 1998 onwards.

Number of Significant Weather Events 1998-2008

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Year (1998-2008)

Fre

qu

ency

Figure 3Number of Significant Events Reported Per Year from 1998 (1) to 2008 (11)

Figure 4 demonstrates the scale of return period scores per year from 1998 to 2008, where the return period values for each event for each year have been combined. Firstly,

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it shows that overall negative weather situations occur in Birmingham. Secondly, Figure 4 demonstrates that the year 2007 witnessed more rare weather events. However, again, it must be acknowledged that the year 2008 has not ended, not all weather events are reported and information regarding recent weather events is more readily available.Appendix A features the main impacts, which were associated with the 75 extreme and severe weather events shown above in its entirety.

Severity of significant weather each year 1998-2008

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Year 1998 (1) - 2008 (11)

To

tal S

ever

ity

Figure 4Scale of Return Period Score Per Year from 1998 (1) to 2008 (11)

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Number of Weather Types

Weather Types

Frequency of Weather Types

Series1 13 9 9 8 3 5 16 3 2 2 4 4

FloodHeavy Rain

Thunder Storms

Lightning TornadosStrong Wind

Snow/Ice/Cold

Heatwave

Drought FogAir

QualityGood

Weather

Figure 5 Frequency of Significant Weather Events 1998-2008

Figure 5 shows the frequency of the 75 different weather events recorded. The greatest number is snow/ice/cold events of which there are 16. Floods, heavy rain and thunderstorms are the next highest. There are four good weather events recorded.

0

5

10

15

20

25

Frequency

Rain & Flood ThunderStorms

Snow/ice/cold Strong Winds Heat/Drought Good Weather Air Quality Fog

Type of Event

Rank Order of Events

Series1

Figure 6 Rank Order of Weather Events Grouped into Classes

Figure 6 groups the events into similar classes and Rain and Flood are the most frequent.

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0

5

10

15

20

25

Number of Events

A B C D

Impact Type

Frequency of Impact Categories

Figure 7 Frequency of Impact Categories

Figure 7 shows the frequency of the 4 impact categories for the 75 significant weather events. Category B is the most frequent.

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Impacts C+DWeather Types -4/-5/-6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Fre

qu

ency

Year

Significant Impacts versus Significant Weather

Impacts C+D

Weather Types -4/-5/-6

Figure 8 Significant Impacts versus Significant Weather

Figure 8 confirms that the significant weather events (-4/-5/-6) and the significant impact events (C and D) are closely related. However in 2006 there were several more significant weather events than significant impact events. In 1999 there were slightly more significant impacts than significant weather events.

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3. Weather Information

3.1 Weather Data

It is important to consider the meteorological data associated with the 75 significantweather events highlighted above into consideration, in order to identify meteorological thresholds whereby, a significant weather event is triggered. Some of the events discussed in sections 3.12, 3.2 and 3.3 are not featured in the database or highlighted in Table 3 and 4, due to limited information being available on their impacts and time constraints. Appendix A also contains meteorological information from the media sources of the 75 weather events identified above.

3.11 University of Birmingham

Meteorological data during the 75 extreme and severe weather events that have affected Birmingham in the last ten years has also been obtained from the weather station at the University of Birmingham. Rainfall data, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data has been obtained from the Winterbourne Climate Station (2008) (52.4°N, 1.9°W, 131 metres above mean sea level) for these events and can be found in Appendix A.

3.12 The Climatological Observers Link

The Weather Climatological Observers Link also currently, has a reporting weather station at Halesowen (48032), a constituency in Birmingham, (Weather COL, 2008). Summary reports, monthly and annually, of the mean meteorological conditions from the year 2005 to the present are available. Meteorological data is also available from 1993/1994. However, due to time constraints the annual summary reports of the mean meteorological conditions from 2005 to 2007 have been considered for this study and are shown below (Figure 6). Halesowen lies 13 km west of Birmingham City Centre. The weather station is 1 km west of Halesowen Town and is situated in a residential area (Figure 5) (Weather COL, 2008). Examples are given in Appendix C.

Figure 9Location of Halesowen Weather Station(source: Weather COL, 2008)

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4. Case Studies of Significant Events

The tornado event, July 2005, the flooding event of June/July 2007 and the heat wave of July 2006 are quite possibly the most significant weather events that have affected Birmingham in the last ten years respectively. This assertion is based on their return period and impact levels. More details regarding these events are shown in Appendix A, as well as the organisations that were affected for all extreme and severe weather events.Council directorates and the Environment Agency were interviewed in order to obtain further information (Appendix B).

4.1 Tornado, July 2005

Below is an extract from the database (Appendix A), showing the impacts of the tornado event on the 28th July 2005.

32 Tornado 28th July 2005

Damaged hundreds of buildings and gardens, uprooting 1000 trees, vehicles lifted off the ground. Huge clean up operation. 19 people injured of which 3 people seriously injured. Part of a supermarket destroyed. Fire service inundated with calls to flash floods. Tiles flying off roofs and smashing into windows, roofs ripped off houses, smashed cars, lampposts lying on the streets of Sparkbrook and rubbish flying around. Debris flying upwards. Roof lifted off a petrol station, bricks flying around. Birmingham City Council reports when people can return to properties. People housed in temporary accommodation as left homeless. Majority of damage in the Kings Heath and Sparkbrook area of Birmingham. Duke of Edinburgh visited residents. Sparkbrook balti restaurant hit. 6 months later people still waiting to move back into homes. One street entirely uninhabitable. Around 100 families displaced and 1000 buildings damaged. Residents outraged. Ladypool Road restaurants affected. Birmingham City Council launches revamp plans and monitors tornado one year on in press release issued on the 28th July 2006, where more details of long term damage are provided. 500 pupils forced to delay start of new term at Ladypool Primary School.

Figure 10Extract from Database (Appendix A) for the Tornado, July 2005 Event(source: BBC West Midlands, Birmingham Mail and Birmingham Post)

The West Midlands Conurbation Resilience Forum was the main department in Birmingham City Council that was affected by the July 2005 tornado event2, in which the impacts of this incident on the department was of major significance. During the tornado only 4 staff members were within the corporate team. The need to manage the response to this incident clearly became the sole focus for the corporate team. Staff were on hand 15 hours a day for 12 days. The costs incurred to the department were estimated at £100,000 however, it is important to acknowledge that the vast majority of costs were shouldered by individual service areas and directorates. The cost to Building Consultancy was believed to be over £3 million. The response by the Resilience Team was generally well received and the team won several awards for their response to the tornado, which

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contributed to Birmingham being recognised as the ‘most prepared city in the UK’ in a study commissioned by the Readers Digest.

The other departments that were mainly affected by this event within the Council included Corporate Teams, Building Consultancy, Urban Design, Fleet and Waste Management and Housing. Local services, constituencies and the media were also affected by the tornado event. The tornado event, along with other emergencies and the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, witnessed the strategic objectives for resilience dramatically change. As a result, a multi-agency team now exists and is increasingly seen as developing best practice in a wide range of areas nationally.

Once the scale of the impacts of the tornado event was established, the decision to declare a major incident was taken immediately by the Council. It is a generally accepted response within the resilience community that were an incident is going to require both mulit-agency coordination and deployment of resources outside those available within normal operational arrangements that any organisation is capable of declaring a major emergency. The City Council’s major emergency plan established the command and control framework for incidents, like the tornado event. Tactical co-ordination is through an Emergency Management Team, which comprises of officers at AD/senior management level with occasional reporting/strategic direction from Corporate Management Team Level. However, the department’s response was described as excellent and that increasing amounts of lessons were learnt.

The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 has placed entirely new duties on Birmingham City Council and other responders that have led to a root and branch change in the way major emergencies are managed in Birmingham. Implementation of these changes is well advanced and continues to form a large part of the ongoing service objectives of the Resilience Team. This issue is a high priority to the service. Weather incidents, such as cold, snow, flooding, gales and heatwaves, form part of the identified risks for the Resilience Team that can require emergency response. More information on the July 2005 tornado event can be found in Birmingham Resilience Group Individual Risk Assessment, Birmingham Tornado 28 July 2005 Briefing Note and T4 Change, provided from the Resilience Team2, and the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce’s July 2005 tornado response assessment3. Plates 1a, b and c show some of the damage caused by the tornado in July 2005, in Sparkbrook and Kings Heath.

Overall Financial Cost = £50 million estimate

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a) Traffic chaos and fallen trees

b) Damaged roofs

c) Damaged buildings

Plate 1Impact of the July 2005 Tornado(source: Birmingham City Council, 2005)

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4.2 Flooding, June - July 2007

Below is an extract from the database (Appendix A) showing the impacts associated with the flooding in June and July 2007, in Birmingham.

52 Heavy Rain

15th June 2007

Drivers and homeowners affected by downpour. Emergency crew stretched to the limit. Rail commuters stranded as services disrupted or cancelled. Virgin trains not stopping at Birmingham New Street or Birmingham International. Arriva Trains services terminating at Wolverhampton instead. Drivers caught in traffic jam after a disabled woman's car stranded in the middle of the road in flood water in Water Orton Lane, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield at 7.15am.

53Flooding 15th June 2007

100 people trapped in factory after River Tame burst. Water rose up to 6 feet deep around plant in Water Orton Lane, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield. 200 houses flooded in Aston. 90 people still inside property, preferring to sit it out rather than move. Fire crews on standby with boats. Central Trains suspended services. Streets of houses in Witton flooded. Many people still living in temporary accommodation a month later. Poorest families without insurance. £300 charge by Fire Brigade to pump water out of homes. Many risking health by living with stagnant, insect and rat-infested water in basements in Witton. Smelly basements. Several roads affected. Residents in Witton claim the Environment Agency failed to raise flood warning and lorries continued to drive up narrow streets creating waves, which added to the chaos. Network Rail reports of delayed services on the Birmingham to Cannock line. Virgin West Coast not stopping at Birmingham stations. Flood warnings issued for the River Cole from Shard End to Coleshill. The Cross City Line North running through Sutton Coldfield running with a half hourly service.

54Flooding

15-16th June, 18th June, 22nd June, 21st July, 23rd July, 25th July, 25th September and27th November 2007.

Eid Mela postponed due to condition of Cannon Hill Park. Residents receive food goodie bags from various local businesses delivered by the Birmingham Mail. Cadbury's give hundreds of chocolate bars to children in Sparkhill. Land Rover donates vehicles in the flooding emergency. Bangla Mela moved from Small Heath Park to Handsworth Park amid Council concerns over safety resulting in members of the Bangladesh Community Trust raising the issue of loss of money. Birmingham-based Severn Trent faced £18.2M loss as 140,000 households lost their water supplies. 40 ambulance workers honoured for work. Hundreds of people fled homes - 200 people evacuated. 60 people left homes in Sparkhill, where 35 people spent night at rest centre. More than 200 sandbags used, sent by Birmingham City Council. Rail services disrupted, A45 and smaller roads shut and Environment Agency stretched. Troubled Waters - An Inside Out Floods Special programme made in Birmingham. 11 year old boy fell into fast moving water. Public transport affected. Officials put sandbags near outside doors in the Bullring.

Figure 11Extract from Database (Appendix A) for the June and July 2007 Flooding Event(source: BBC West Midlands, Birmingham Mail and Birmingham Post)

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The flooding of June and July 2007, in Birmingham, had a highly significant impact on the Network Management: Drainage department of Birmingham City Council4. Normal work was suspended in the department as the entire team was responding to flooding reports. Other resources were diverted from other types of work within the department. The call out duty officer was active until 2am and additional officers were called in for support. It is estimated that the cost of the flooding was around £50,000. The reputation of the service was enhanced due to the efficient response.

Highways, drainage and highway call out were mainly affected by this incident. Priorities were put on hold briefly within the department and programmed maintenance was rescheduled due to high level of costs exceeding that allocated to reactive maintenance.

The drainage service responded in a civil defence role to support customers, prioritising the use of resources as the event unfolded. The duty officer monitored the response during the event and the Senior Drainage Engineer subsequently. The response was described as excellent. Better liaison with emergency planning could have taken place however, this can bring difficulties. Overall, the response by the department was responsive and accurately measured.

Ongoing liaison regarding working arrangement is in place should this incident occur again. Alternate provisions that could be made include better weather forecasting, as warning times and accuracy of location are totally inadequate for Birmingham’s catchments, flood defence schemes and local mitigation measures. This is a high priority for the drainage service. Blue light services and the Environment Agency were also active and present during this incident.

Generally, the drainage department spent around £40,000 regarding the River Cole and around £10,000 on the River Rea. The River Tame is the Environment Agency’s responsibility.

The Environment Agency5 rated the flooding events of June and July 2007 as of major significance on their service. Most of the Environment Agency’s resources were diverted to deal with this incident across the area, not just Birmingham, thereby diverting people from their normal activities. 24 hour rosters were set up for forecasting, flood warning and incident response. Additional costs were incurred at the Environment Agency due to overtime, standby and callout. It is difficult to quantify costs due to prolonged nature and extent of the event. The reputation of the Environment Agency came under a lot of scrutiny and therefore, lessons learnt are being looked at and improved working relationships with profession partners is being established. The departments at the Environment Agency that were affected were Flood Risk Management (Forecasting, Warning and Incident Response, Data Gathering and Asset Systems Management), Operations Delivery, Public Relations and Regional Control Room. Lessons that wee learnt following the incident will now be incorporated into the Environment Agency’s procedures. Residents of Witton did not receive a flood warning as the river rose very rapidly, overtopping the wall alongside Brookvale Road. Warning thresholds have since been

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reviewed following the flooding and the Environment Agency is now working closely with the Witton Flood Action Group and professional partners in order to ensure an improved response in the future. The Environment Agency will issue warnings when the river reaches road level, which will enable the Action Group to closely monitor the situation on site and take action if necessary. Some of the flooding of properties occurred when vehicles drove through the floodwater causing a wave to enter the properties. The Environment Agency will work with the Police and Birmingham City Council to try and minimise this in the future.

The response of the Environment Agency was influenced by river level thresholds, where flood forecasting and flood warning duty officers and operational staff on the ground were monitoring the response. The service’s response was rated average. Flood warning could have given the public more time to prepare for the onset of flooding although there would have been very little lead time and people may not have been too sure about what they could do to prepare. The flooding would still have occurred, but the impact on individuals may have been minimised.

Should this incident occur again, warning thresholds have been reviewed, the Flood Warden scheme has been established, as well as liaison with professional partners. Actual adaptation has involved tree work being undertaken and some debris removal was carried out. Assessment was undertaken as to the viability of other works. The Environment Agency is awaiting the output from the Tame strategy later this year. However, property owners could fit flood doors and other products to their property to minimise the impact of future flooding. This is a high priority in general to the Environment Agency. More information on the Birmingham floods of 2007 can be found in the Environment Agency’s Review of 2007 Summer Floods5, the West Midlands Business Council Floods: Response from West Midlands Business Council Members and West Midlands Business Council Submission. Phase Three Revision. Draft Project Plan Consultation6.

The flooding events of 2007 in Birmingham were a result of heavy rainfall. Officials at the Bullring had to put sandbags at the doors to prevent water seeping in and have spent £50k on remedial work. This was mainly due to drainage issues, which have now been resolved. Designers work in 20 year cycles and draining issues and infrastructure in the future will incorporate heavy rainfall. However, the design in 2007 did not incorporateheavy rainfall amounts7. This therefore, caused flooding for Waterstones on the High Street, in the City Centre8.

Overall Financial Cost = £100k?

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4.3 Heatwave, July 2006

Below is an extract from the database (Appendix A) showing the impacts associated with the heatwave in July 2006, in Birmingham. However, due to time constraints, further information through interviews could not be obtained.

39Heatwave 18th and 27th July 2006

People sunbathing in the city centre. 6.7 % decrease in passengers flying from Birmingham International Airport. 1.4 % rise in violent crime in the West Midlands, rise in robberies and overcrowding atBirmingham New Street. Heat causing railway lines to buckle. BBC Midlands Today's weather team remade their graphics as they only featured temperatures as high as 32°C. Graphics had to be remade to go up to numbers up to 38. Manor Park Primary School and Aston Tower Community Primary School in Aston closed and infant and nursery classes at Jervoise Junior and Infant School cancelled.

Figure 12Extract from Database (Appendix A) for the July 2006 heatwave(source: BBC West Midlands, Birmingham Mail and Birmingham Post)

The impacts above demonstrate that the BBC had to remake their temperature graphics, as a result of the July 2006 heatwave. However, it was just a case of it should have been previously done prior to the forecast9. This demonstrates that media sources should be handled cautiously therefore, highlighting the significance of the interview process.

Following the heatwave of August 2003, lightning was triggered on the 10th August 2003 that led to severe injuries, structural damage and £500 worth of damage10. Lighting also followed the heatwave of July 2006 however, this incident was not as severe. This demonstrates that severe weather events can be triggered by extreme events, like heatwaves and lightning, just like extreme events can be triggered by severe weather events, like heavy rain and flooding.

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5. Future Climate Change

It is very important to understand the future climate change scenarios of Birmingham in order to build up knowledge of potential impacts to services, as a result of changes in extreme and severe weather patterns due to low and high emission scenarios. Emissions are believed to be very likely contributing to observed increases in mean global temperature (IPCC, 2007).

5.1 Daily Mean Precipitation Anomalies

The first future climate scenarios that will be considered will be for daily mean precipitation anomalies. The key quantitatively expresses future changes in the meteorological parameter.

Figure 13Annual Changes in Mean Precipitation

Annually, in a low emissions scenario, in 2020, 2050 and 2080 Birmingham may encounter 0 to -10 % decreases in mean precipitation. This may also be the case for a high emissions scenario however, 2080 may witness between -10 to -20 % decreases in mean precipitation (Figure 6).

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Figure 14Winter Changes in Mean Precipitation

In winter, in a low emissions scenario, from 2020 to 2080, Birmingham may see 0 – 10 % changes in daily mean precipitation. In a high emissions scenario, in 2020, Birmingham may see 0 – 10% changes, 10 – 20 % changes in 2050 and 20 – 30 % changes in daily mean precipitation (Figure 7).

Figure 15Summer Changes in Mean Precipitation

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In summer, in low emission scenarios, Birmingham may see 0 to -10 % changes in precipitation in 2020, -10 to -20 % changes in precipitation in 2050 and 2020 in a high emissions scenario, -20 to -30 % changes in 2080 and 2050 in a high emissions scenario. In 2080, in a high emissions scenario, Birmingham could witness -40 to – 50 % decrease in daily mean precipitation.

5.2 Daily Mean Temperature Anomalies

The second future climate scenarios that will be considered will be for daily mean temperature anomalies. The key quantitatively expresses future changes in the meteorological parameter.

Figure 16Annual Changes in Mean Temperature

Annually, in a high and low emissions scenario, Birmingham may see a 0.5 – 1.0°C change in temperature in 2020. In a low emissions scenario, Birmingham may see a 1.0 to 1.5°C increase in 2050. In a low emissions scenario in 2080 and a high emissions scenario in 2050, Birmingham may witness a 2 to 2.5°C increase in mean temperature. In a high emissions scenario in 2080, an increase of 4 to 4.5°C in mean temperature may be observed (Figure 9).

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Figure 17Winter Changes in Mean Temperature

In winter, in a high and low emissions scenario, Birmingham may see a 0.5 – 1.0°C change in temperature in 2020. In a low emissions scenario, Birmingham may see a 1.0 to 1.5°C increase in 2050. In a low emissions scenario in 2080 and a high emissions scenario in 2050, Birmingham may witness a 1.5 to 2°C increase in mean temperature. In a high emissions scenario in 2080, an increase of 3 to 3.5°C in mean temperature may be observed (Figure 10).

Figure 18Summer Changes in Mean Temperature

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In summer, in a high and low emissions scenario, Birmingham may see a 1 to 1.5°C change in temperature in 2020. In a low emissions scenario, Birmingham may see a 1.5 to 2°C increase in 2050. In a low emissions scenario in 2080 and a high emissions scenario in 2050, Birmingham may witness a 2.5 to 3°C increase in mean temperature. In a high emissions scenario in 2080, an increase of over 5°C in mean temperature may be observed (Figure 11).

5.3 Potential Impacts of Future Climate Scenarios

In general, if high emissions persist, Birmingham may witness increased winter precipitation (by 20 – 30 %) and increased summer temperatures (by over 5°C) by 2080. This will have significant impacts on public and private businesses and services.

Increased winter precipitation for Birmingham may firstly, trigger more frequent and severe flooding events. This will place more pressure on the Highways and Drainage Department of Birmingham City Council and the Environment Agency. Therefore, public services may need to implement further adaptation measures. Individual heavy rainfall events themselves may also cause extensive damage to infrastructure, which ultimately may affect businesses, as lessons learnt from the past have shown. Increased frequency and magnitude of flooding events will also further affect West Midlands Fire and Rescue Service and local Fire Services and will increase the responsibilities of local flood groups. Elderly people may be a high risk group if flooding events increased. Transport systems and services may be affected more often, property owners may also have to undertake further adaptation measures to prevent damage to property and insurance companies will also be affected. Therefore, the Financial Service and Housing Servicesof Birmingham City Council may also be affected further.

Increased summer temperatures may contribute to increased magnitude and frequency of heatwaves. Although, local businesses sales revenue may boom, further pressure will be exerted on the National Health Service (NHS) as increasing amounts of people may suffer from the ill effects of the heat, particularly the elderly. Higher temperatures may prompt changes in air quality and therefore, may cause increased respiratory problems for some, again putting further pressure on the NHS. Therefore, adaptation strategies may need to be adopted by the NHS. Higher temperatures may also mean that improved and perhaps more air conditioning systems may also have to be provided for workers due to the possible sweltering heat. Temperature regulations may also be important for services such as schools and local businesses. This may then affect the Children’s Services at Birmingham City Council. Increased summer temperatures may also put pressure on the tourism sector, which may not be capable of handling an influx of people and therefore, need adaptation measures in place. This will affect the Tourism service of Birmingham City Council. Increased Summer Temperatures may also trigger events, such as thunderand lightning and may leave further indirect impacts of their own.

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6. Suggestions for Further Work

Due to time constraints some avenues in this study were unexplored. Further work needs to be carried out or continued, as further issues have been highlighted in this study.

1. Firstly, further significant weather events that have affected Birmingham in the last ten years need to be located in the Meteorological Archive at Central Library, in Birmingham City Centre, on the 6th floor. Other events can also be identified from the Birmingham Mail and Post in their personal Archive Library however, due to their relocation plans staff were unavailable to provide assistance during the duration of this study. Events prior to 1998 are available from the BirminghamMail and Post in paper format.

2. Maximum and minimum wind speed data and modal wind direction data also needs to be incorporated into the database, from the Winterbourne Climate Station at the University of Birmingham.

3. Air quality data since 1990, for the different monitoring stations in Birmingham, also needs to be considered and can be obtained from The UK National Air Quality Archive.

4. The ranking system created in this study in Section 2.3 also needs to be explored further in terms of trends and patterns.

5. Further impacts associated with the significant events also need to be considered from the different reports that have been highlighted throughout this study.

6. Mr C.G. Roberts’ personal weather diaries for Halesowen need to also be explored further.

7. More work needs to be carried out regarding the meteorological data and monthly summaries of the Halesowen Weather Station from the Weather COL resource.

8. Meteorological data from the Murihead Weather Station at the University of Birmingham for the 75 extreme and severe weather events could also be taken into account.

9. The Regional Public Weather Service Advisor at the Met Office also needs to be contacted. His details are Malcolm Weatherall, 02920 786564, 07770 320488 or malcom.weatherall@metoffice.gov.uk.

10. Further interviews with Council Directorates needs to be carried out in order to obtain more information on the significant events, more financial costs for other events and more information about the other extreme and severe weather events.

11. The revamp plans a year after the July 2005 tornado event also need to be acknowledged in this project.

12. The NHS also needs to be contacted in order to provide more information on the heatwave incidents. A start has been made to establish this contact and is happy to assist in providing information. This contact is Nicola Benge and her details are Nicola.Benge@benpct.nhs.uk. Angela Saganowska is also a useful contact and her details are Angela.Sagonwska@bhwp.nhs.uk.

13. Joy Williams, from the Press Office for Travel West Midlands and Midland Metro, can also be contacted on 0121 460 8419.

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14. Abi Dollery can also be contacted at abidollery@egbaston.com on any incidents that have occurred at Edgbaston Cricket Ground.

15. Steve Taylor, from Highway Drainage at the Council, may also be able to assist and can be contacted through Clive Wright.

16. Ralph Brand, an Operations Duty Manager, at Birmingham International Airport can also be contacted regarding incidents at the airport at ralphb@bhx.co.uk or can be contacted from the Press Office by Francesca on 0121 767 7074. Ralph Brand is currently finding information on incidents and further impacts that have concerned the airport.

17. Ashley Wayne from the Fire Service at the Council can be contacted on 0121 303 6485.

18. Jane Parry from the Police Service at the Council can also be contacted on 0121 303 4790 or jane.parry@birmingham.gov.uk. Contact has already been made with Jane.

19. Steve Grogan, Emergency Planning at the Council, can also be contacted on 0121 303 3103.

20. Jon Grayland, Primary Care Trust, can also be contacted on jon.grayland@bhwp.nhs.uk.

21. The South Staffordshire Water company, responsible for Sutton Coldfield, also needs to be contacted.

22. Gavin Tringham, Public Health, could also be contacted on 0121 303 6106.23. John Hinton, Environmental Health, could also be contacted on 0121 303 9942.24. Kevin Howell, Noise and acoustics, could also be contacted on 0121 303 9945.25. Chris Williams, Birmingham-based Friends of the Earth, also needs to be

contacted.26. Dr. Jon Kemm, from the Regional Health Observatory West Midlands, is also

available to assist on 0121 415 8552.27. Vicky Smith, Flood Coordinator fro Witton, is currently in the process of sending

information and can be contacted on 0121 303 1225. 28. Brett Willars, Director, can also provide information regarding the River Cole and

can be contacted on 0121 675 7935. 29. Fiona Loveland needs to be contacted in order to obtain information regarding the

2003 heatwave and can be contacted on 0121 600 5801.30. Helen Bright, Highways, 0121 303 7572 may be able to provide assistance.31. Alan Lloyd, Traffic Manager, 0121 303 7693 may also be able to provide further

information.32. Nick Grayson, Nature Conservation and Sustainability Manager still needs to be

contacted on 0121 464 1045 regarding grass mowing regimes.33. Bill Arnold, Senior Energy Manager, on 0121 303 6507 still needs to be

contacted.34. The West Midlands Regional Climate Change Action Plan still needs to be

explored. 35. Information provided form Severn Trent on The Impact of the July Floods on the

Water Infrastructure and Customer Service needs to be explored and Financial Results for 2007-2008 released on the 5th June still needs to be obtained. Contact details for Severn Trent are Andrew Marsh, Public Affairs Manager, 0121 722

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4555 or Andrew.Marsh@severntrent.co.uk and Gill Dickinson, 0121 722 4380 or gill.dickinson@severntrent.co.uk.

36. Allan Donaldson, Network Performance and Reporting for Central Networks, has already been contacted on Allan.Donaldson@central-networks.co.uk and has provided reports on 27th October 2002 Incident, Statement of Facts, 2006/07 Electricity Distribution Quality of Service Report and 2002/03 Electricity Distribution Quality of Service Report that need to be explored further regarding loss of power in Birmingham due to lightning incidents or severe wind.

37. Birmingham Level and Rainfall data, provided from the Environment Agency by Derek Thomas, Field Monitoring and Data Officer, 0121 711 5942 or Derek.Thomas@environment-agency.gov.uk and Julie Thacker, Julie.Thacker@environment-agency.gov.uk also needs to be explored further. This includes data for Kings Norton and Harbourne. Three Met Office storage rain gauges exist in Birmingham and data has been obtained from them since 1998, which needs to be incorporated into this project.

38. Richard Cross, at the Solihull Environment Agency Office, is also a useful contact and can be contacted on 0121 711 5851.

39. Information provided from Zoë Nickless, Assistant Hydrologist, Flood Forecasting Team, 0121 711 5851, Zoe.Nickless@environment-agency.gov.uk, on fluvial forecasts also needs to be incorporated into this project. Return periods for significant flooding events can also be conducted using special software by the Environment Agency, by locating grid references, of the events, located in the 2006 Hydrometric Catalogue.

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Anderson, M., Dann, S., Hughes, C., Kersey, J., Chapman, L., Kings, J., Thornes, J., Hunt, A. and Taylor, T. 2003. Sustainability West Midlands. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the West Midlands. Technical Report, Entec UK limited, UK Climate Impacts Programme, 163pp.

BBC West Midlands. 2008. Midlands Today. www.bbc.co.uk/midlandstoday, (accessed 14th April 2008).

Birmingham. A global city with a local heart. 2004, 2005 and 2007. Birmingham City Council. www.birmingham.gov.uk, (accessed 10th June 2008).

Birmingham Climate Change Strategy, Making our commitment. 2008. Birmingham Strategic Partnership.

Birmingham Mail. 2008. www.birminghammail.net, (accessed 14th April 2008).

Birmingham Post. 2008. www.birminghampost.net, (accessed 14th April 2008).

Gerrard, J. 1996. Chapter 1. The Physical framework of the West Midlands Conurbation. In: Gerrard, A.J. and Slater, T.R. 1996. Managing a Conurbation. Birmingham and its Region, Brewin Books, Studley, Warwickshire , 3 – 12 pp.

Giles, B.D. and Kings, J. 1996. Chapter 8. Birmingham Weather Through Two Centuries.In: Gerrard, A.J. and Slater, T.R. 1996. Managing a Conurbation. Birmingham and its Region, Brewin Books, Studley, Warwickshire, 101 – 114 pp.

Hulme,M., Jenkins,G.J., Lu,X., Turnpenny,J.R., Mitchell,T.D., Jones,R.G., Lowe,J., Murphy,J.M., Hassell,D., Boorman,P., McDonald,R. and Hill,S..2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. 120 pp.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2001 and 2007. www.ipcc.ch,(accessed 10th June 2008).

McGregor, G.R., Cai, X., Harrison, R.M., Thornes, J.E. and Veal, A. 1996. Chapter 9. Air Quality in the West Midlands. In: Gerrard, A.J. and Slater, T.R. 1996. Managing a Conurbation. Birmingham and its Region, Brewin Books, Studley, Warwickshire, 115 – 128 pp.

Roberts, C.G. 1990. 1991. 1993. 1996. 1997. 1998 and 1999. Private Weather Diaries for Halesowen. UK Met Office Archive.

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The Met Office Hadley Centre. 2007 and 2008. Climate change in our world. www.metoffice.gov.uk, (accessed 10th June 2008).

UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). 2008. What is climate change? www.ukcip.org.uk, (accessed 10th June 2008).

Viner, D. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Climate Change and Urban Heat Islands. 2007. BBC Weather and BBC Inside Out. www.bbc.co.uk/weather and www.bbc.co.uk/insideout (accessed 10th June 2008).

Weather Col. 2008. Halesowen Weather Station. www.halesowenweather.co.uk, (accessed 3rd June 2008).

Wetterzentrale. 1992. www.wetterzentrale.de, (accessed 9th June 2007).

Winterbourne Climate Station, Climate and Research Group Weather Facility, University of Birmingham. 2008. http://kermit.bham.ac.uk/~kidd/home.htm, (accessed 3rd June 2008).

World Meteorological Organisation, World Information Service. 2007. http://worldweather.wmo.int/010/c00028.htm, (accessed 10th June 2008).

44

Superscripts

SuperscriptNumber

Contact Contact Details

1Kate StrachanAssistant Archivist at the UK Met Office

kate.strachan@metoffice.gov.uk+44(0) 1392 360988

2

Martin TolmanBirmingham City Council Emergency Planning Manager. Birmingham Resilience Team.

martin_tolman@birmingham.gov.uk0121 303 482507766925158

3

Katie TeasdalePolicy AdvisorBirmingham Chamber of Commerce

Charlotte RitchieBirmingham Chamber of Commerce

k.teasdale@birminghamchamber.org.uk0121 450 4204

0121 607 1874/1884

4Clive WrightSenior Drainage EngineerHighways – DrainageBirmingham City Council

clive.wright@birmigngham.gov.uk0121 303 7235

5John BuckinghamEnvironment Agency –Lichfield

john.buckingham@environment-agency.gov.uk01543404890

6James WatkinsExecutive DirectorWest Midlands Business Council

j.watkins@wmbusinesscouncil.org.uk0121 245 0140

7Colin BradfordTechnical Facilities ManagerBullring

colin.bradford@bullring.co.uk0121 632 1505

8Chris HardingAssistant ManagerWaterstones, High Street, Birmingham City Centre

manager@bham-highstreet.waterstones.co.uk

0121 633 4353

9Simon KeelingBBC West Midlands –Weather

simon@weatherweb.net01902 895 25207956979649

10Mike GarveyManagerGreat Barr Leisure Centre

0121 464 5995

45

Appendix ADatabase of the Significant Weather Events in Birmingham, in the Last Ten Years(source: BBC West Midlands, Birmingham Mail, Birmingham Post and Council Directorates, 2008)Note that events in blue covered most of the West Midlands Region whereas events in black just Birmingham

Media Database on Significant Weather Events in the Last 10 Years.

(source: BBC West Midlands, Birmingham Mail and Birmingham Post) Blue denotes incidents within the Midlands Region

Event Date of Event

Area Affected Meteorological Comments (Media)

Meteorological Data from

University of Birmingham.

Impact of Event and Any Action Taken Organisations Affected

Scale of Return Period

Scale of

Impact of

Event

1 Flooding 3rd March 1998 West Midlands -River Severn, Trent and Wye burst banks.

General dry weather over last 2 years and therefore flooding unusual 19.3 mm of rain

Streets and car parks left flooded. Large areas of farmland swamped.

Residential and farmland areas. Environment Agency.

-4 B

2 Flooding 26th September 1998

South and West Birmingham -Longbridge, Northfield, Moseley, Kings Heath, City Centre, Rubery, Shirley, Hall Green

Heavy frontal rainfall

Over 33mm of rain in one hour and a total of 50.3mm

Moseley school flooded, 60 elderly and infirm residents in sheltered accomodation in Northfield flooded, school flooded in Kings Heath, Flats flooded in Leach Green Lane Rubery, Robin Hood Pub in Hall Green flooded

Sheltered accomodation, schools, \environment Agency

-4 C

3 Heavy Rain 28th October 1998

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Intense rainfall and gale force winds.

Daily rainfall 26.1 mm recorded on the 27/10/98. Wind gusts up to 30m/s

Environment Agency extremely concerned. Severe flooding warnings in place for River Severn as floods last week cost 12 lives. Insurers consider increasing premiums by up to 30 % for householder living within 2miles of a river.

Residents, Environment Agency and insurance companies.

-3 A

4 Flooding 26th April 1999 South-west Birmingham, Northfield, Frankley, Rubery

Heavy rainfall in localised area

Only 3.1mm recorded at the University but over 30mm recorded inone hour in North Worcestershire

Houses, schools and roads flooded, sheltered accomodation in Northfield flooded again

Sheltered accomodation, schools, \environment Agency

-3 B

5 Flooding 1st/2nd June 1999

West Midlands and most of Birmingham

Heavy thundery rain 58.2 mm recorded over 1st and 2nd of June

The morning rush-hour particularly affected. "Lots of people were certainly late for work today" AA spokesman. Kings Heath High Street flooded, Lightning hit traffic lights on Bristol Road, several schools flooded including in Billesley and Kings Heath. Several overhead and underground telephone cables damaged by lightning.

British Telecom, Environment Agency, Schools

-3 C

46

6 Tornado 5th July 1999 Selly Oak, Birmingham

High winds Daily rainfall 61.5 mm

21 houses damaged, roofs torn off, plants uprooted, bin bags, fencing and leaves pulled up, branches of trees bending and tiles of roofs falling off. Huge clean up operation.

Residential areas -5 C

7 Heavy Rain and Severe Flooding.

8th August 1999

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Expected August total rainfall in just 12 hours.

Daily rainfall 57.9 mm

Roads closed and rail services badly affected. Rain swept across houses and businesses. Many properties flooded in downpours as water 1 m deep during the night prior to the 9th August. Emergency services handled over 1,500 flood-related calls in the Midlands on Sunday night. Treacherous driving conditions.

Residents, train stations, residents, business owners, emergency services and motorists.

-5 C

8 Storms 3rd December 1999

Kings Heath, Birmingham

Storm abates over night. Winds of 60 mph at around 9.40am.

Wind gust of 64 mph

3 people killed in the morning as 60 ft ash tree falls on a line of cars. Police, emergency service and AA Roadwatch attend incident.

General public, police, emergency services and AA Roadwatch.

-4 D

9 Snow/Ice 20th December 1999

Midlands -including Birmingham.

Cold Atlantic air responsible for snow. Strong Winds. Around 10 cms of snow.

Daily rainfall 4.4 mm, -0.9°C maximum temperature and -8.1°C minimum temperature

Driving conditions treacherous. Drivers -3 A

10 Snow/Ice 3rd April 2000 Birmingham Coldest April day on record declared. Blizzard conditions. Overnight temperatures -1.3°C in the West Midlands. Snow hardened into icy patches. Sunniest winter declared with 2 and a half hours of sunshine a day.

2.0°C maximum temperature

Motorways around Birmingham hazardous. Planes diverted from Luton to Birmingham International Airport. Traffic at standstill and transport systems paralyzed.

Road and public transport users, Birmingham International Airport, AA rescue service.

-4 B

11 Flooding 6th July 2000 South Birmingham, Northfield, Rubery, West Heath, Frankley, Kings Norton

Exceptional rainfall Daily Rainfall 8.0 mm at University but 32-64 mm recorded using weather radar in the Northfield area

Flooding in Northfield. A resident in Frankley said "This happened last year as well…and the drains still haven't been sorted". A spokesman for Severn Trent Water blamed the flooding on an antiquated 19th century drainage system that was not built to cope with such downpours.

Severn Trent Water, Environment Agency

-4 C

12 Storms 29th October 2000

Midlands -including Birmingham.

Heavy rain and gale-force winds.

Daily rainfall 35 mm, maximum gust of 78 mph

Disrupted rail and road travel. Flood warnings in place. A man dies after falling into River Tame. Leaves and debris found in River Tame. Silverlink County reports delays at Birmingham New Street.

Motorists, train stations and passengers, general public and Environment Agency. Silverlink County and Birmingham New Street.

-3 D

47

13 Heavy Rain and Storms

5-6th July 2001 Birmingham Heavy downpours for several days. 4 inches of rain reported.

Daily rainfall 33.4 mm

Disruption of the First Ashes Test at Birmingham between England and Australia. Environment Agency warns of flood risk. AA warns drivers about slippery roads.

Cricket venue, players and fans, Environment Agency and AA.

-3 B

14 Hot Weather 25th August 2001

Birmingham Temperatures soared

Zero rainfall, 24.5°C maximum temperature

Traffic increase due to hot weather corresponding with best bank holiday weekend for 25 years. 30 mile tailbacks on the M5. Spending boom by holidaymakers and public. Increased passenger use at Birmingham International Airport.

Motorists, holidaymakers, general public, businesses and Birmingham International Airport.

2 B

15 Snow/Ice 30th December 2001

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Severe icy conditions. Temperatures between -8°C and -5°c.

Minimum temperatures of -4°C on 31/12/01, -8°C on 01/01/02, -7.3°C on 02/01/02, -3.2°C on 03/01/02 and -5.7°C on 04/01/02 recorded.

Police warning to drivers to take extreme care. Police and road users -3 A

16 Snow/Ice 1st January 2002

Birmingham Freezing temperatures continuing. Temperatures of -8°C.

-8.0 minimum temperature

Decrease in people attending new year celebrations. General public -3 A

17 Fog 6th January 2002

Birmingham Poor visibility Daily rainfall 0.2 mm, 7.5°C maximum temperature

Fog delays reopening of Birmingham International Airport - 2 days after 5 people died in private jet crash. Flights resumed on 7th January. 20,000 passengers faced disruption with considerable delays. 170 flights diverted.

Birmingham International Airport and holidaymakers.

-4 B

18 Storms 29th October 2002

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

High winds Maximum wind gust of 44 mph

Disruption to train services in the West Midlands as a whole. Electricity Association report 3,500 homes without power in the Midlands at 10am on the 30th October.

Residents, train services and passengers and Electricity Association.

-4 B

19 Snow/Ice 6th January 2003

Birmingham Harsh frosts with temperatures of -3°C.

Minimum temperatures of -4.7°C recorded on the 5th and -5.1°C recorded on the 8th January.

Motorists warned not to defrost leaving cars unattended, with engines running, due to theft. Help the Aged asks older people to take more care. Dangerous driving conditions.

Road users, police and the charity Help the Aged.

-3 A

20 Snow/Ice 31st January 2003

Birmingham Blizzards and high winds. Visibility reduced.

-3°C minimum temperature

Major road problems on the M6 in both directions around Birmingham. Visibility bad on M4. A crash involving lorry near junction with M5.

Police and AA rescue service on alert. Road users.

-3 D

21 Hot Weather 31st May 2003 Birmingham Temperatures of 27°C.

26.6°C maximum temperature

Public enjoying the outdoors. Boost in local economy. General public and local businesses.

2 B

48

22 Heatwave 4th-10thth August 2003

Birmingham Temperatures rising to 31°C.

Maximum temperatures of 29.3°C on the 4th, 27°C on the 7th, 27.4°C on the 8th, 33°C on the 9th and 26.9°C on the 10th August were recorded.

Public enjoying increased temperatures. People cooling off by city's water features, chaos at Birmingham New Street as half the trains to London cancelled and passengers of Virgin Trains faced 45 to 60 minutes delays due to concerns of rail tracks buckling. Network Rail imposed 60 mph limits for trains. Afternoon and early evening trains affected.

General public, Birmingham New Street, Virgin Trains, Network Rail and commuters.

-4 B

23 Lightning 10th August 2003

Birmingham Lightning due to storm at 12.20pm. Thunderstorms and heavy rain. Recent heatwave responsible.

Daily rainfall 6 mm, 26.9°C maximum temperature and 16.6°C minimum temperature recorded on the 10/08/03.

Lightning strike at football match at Great Barr Leisure Centre. 14 people treated by paramedics - 8 people treated for burns and eye injuries and 6 people treated for shock. One woman hit by lightning and suffered heart attack. 12-14 footballers suffered shock. 60 firefighters tackle large fire caused by lightning at factory units in Mainstream Way, the Vauxhall area of Birmingham.

West Midlands Ambulance Service, casualties of the lightning strike, Great Barr Leisure Centre, the public at the time of the incident, Birmingham City Hospital, firefighters and those concerned with the factory units. Selly Oak Hospital.

-5 D

24 Air Quality 16th September 2003

Sandwell, Birmingham

Emissions from nearby iron foundry affecting air quality in area.

24.9°C maximum temperature

Health Protection Agency researchers examine health of people living near the iron foundry. Hospital admissions regarding asthma fell by 30 % after foundry cut emissions. Foundry introduced emission cutting programme in 1997 therefore, HPA monitoring figures for 5 years. However, people moving in or away from area was not monitored.

Residents living near iron foundry in Sandwell who suffer from asthma, hospitals and Health Protection Agency.

-4 B

25 Drought 26th November 2003

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Exceptionally dry summer and autumn. Very low rainfall from January to October 2003.

Daily rainfall 0.5 mm

Reservoirs 39 % lower than the previous year in the Midlands.

Initiation of drought management plan and Environment Agency.

-5 B

49

26 Snow/Ice 29th January 2004

Birmingham Snow and ice across the UK. Worst ice conditions in the Midlands. Arctic conditions. Overnight snow showers. Slush washing salt off roads. Met Office in Birmingham forecast expected no more snow after the 29th January 2004. Temperatures below 0°C.

Daily rainfall 0.3 mm, 3.3°C maximum temperature and -2.6°C minimum temperature recorded on the 29/01/04.

Delays and cancellations at Birmingham International Airport. Treacherous conditions for road, rail and air travellers. Gridlocked roads. 470 schools in Birmingham closed. Motorists took up to 8 hours to travel short distances. All schools later closed due to continuing traffic problems on the advice of Birmingham City Council. Cars abandoned. Motorists walking home instead. Gritted roads became hazardous as snow locked in salt causing icy conditions. More black ice on the road in the evening of 29th January 2004. Public Transport affected. Queensway Tunnel closed for several hours due to collisions. A441 closed at 7pm due to a crash involving a coach and four cars. Birmingham City Council trying to keep roads open.

Motoring organisations, AA Roadwatch, Highways Agency, travellers and workers, Birmingham International Airport, train companies, schools, Birmingham City Council and motorists. Travel Link West Midlands.

-5 D

27 Storms 7th July 2004 Birmingham Met Office warnings a weekago.

Rainfall 17.8 mm and maximum wind gust of 57 mph

Fallen tree cleared from Woodbourne Road, Edgbaston. People without electricity.

Birmingham City Council and Met Office. Engineers trying to restore power. Central Networks.

-3 C

28 Hot Weather 31st July 2004 Birmingham High temperatures due to the Azores high - an area of high pressure over the Atlantic bringing warm air with it. Hot weather bringing air pollution and smog.

23.4°C maximum temperature

Excellent conditions for Test cricket between England and the West Indies played in Birmingham. People with breathing difficulties affected as reported by DEFRA.

Cricket venue, players and general public. DEFRA.

1 A

29 Storms 5th/6th August 2004

Birmingham Sudden rainfall. Met office report storms started near Swindon before going through Gloucestershire and towards Birmingham. Thunder and lightning. More than an inch rainfall in some parts.

Daily rainfall 39.6 mm, 26.7°C maximum temperature

Pressures on fire services. Flood warnings issued by Environment Agency. Dangerous driving conditions. Repairs to A38 Aston Expressway delayed - surface needed to be repaired due to unexpected rainfall over summer. Main purpose of repairs to resurface and waterproof the road.

Residents, Met Office and Environment Agency. Motorists. Those who normally use and are concerned with the A38 Aston Expressway.

-4 C

30 Heavy Rain 20th August 2004

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Met Office warns of Atlantic storm.

Daily rainfall was recorded as 10 mm on the 17th, 10.8 mm on the 18th and 18 mm on the 22nd

Heavy rain warnings issued by Environment Agency. Met Office and Environment Agency. General public.

-1 A

50

31 Snow/Ice 20th November 2004

Birmingham Temperatures decreased to -7°C.

Minimum air temperature -1.2°C

AA Roadwatch and Highways Agency issue warnings to drivers.

Motorists, Highway Agency and AA Roadwatch.

-3 A

32 Ice 26-27th December 2004

Birmingham Icy conditions 3°C maximum temperature and -2.1°C minimum temperature recorded on the 26/12/04. and -4°Cminimum temperature recorded on the 27/12/04.

Only 40 % of major High Street stores opened on Boxing Day and around 22,000 people at the Bullring shopping complex, which caused decrease in trade figures due to icy conditions.

General public, Bullring stores and High Street stores in the city centre.

-3 B

33 Heatwave 18th June 2005 Birmingham Temperatures soared over the weekend and reached up to 28°C.

27.8°C maximum temperature. A maximum temperature of 30.1°C was recorded on the 19th June.

50 gritters took part in an exercise to ensure drivers prepared for the winter and up to date with their training on the advise of Birmingham City Council. Council did not want a repeat of traffic coming to a standstill in freezing conditions, like in previous years.

Birmingham City Council, gritters, road users and general public.

-4 B

34 Storms 24th June 2005 West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Violent storms end heatwave. Thunder and lightning. Heavy rain. Storms reached Midlands by 8am.

Daily rainfall 21.4 mm, 20.3°C maximum temperature

Homes without power. Birmingham Met Office monitoring events. RAC and Highways Agency urge drivers to check conditions before starting off on journeys.

Residents, general public, Met Office, RAC, Highways Agency and motorists.

-3 B

35 Lightning 29th June 2005 Birmingham Flashes of lightning. Daily rainfall 10.6 mm, 23.9°C maximum temperature

Halt to England and Australia one-day match. Umpires escort players off field as lightning over Edgbaston cricket pitch. 20,000 people had to go home as match ended up as a washout.

England and Australian cricket players, Edgbaston cricket pitch and all those associated with the match, including the public.

-4 B

51

36 Tornado 28th July 2005 South-east Birmingham -Small Heath, Hall Green, Sparkbrook, Moseley, Balsall Heath and Kings Heath.

135 mph twister at 2.41pm. Lasted for 4 minutes. Worst one in 25 years to hit Britain declared. Thunder and lightning witnessed. Strong winds. Tornado believed to be due to a line of thunderstorms stretching across mid Wales to London, which moved north increasing the intensity of the storm until it turned into a tornado. This was due to warm air and cold air mixing together and spinning. The warm air rose (updraft) and the cold air coming across it caused the rotation. Funnel cloud created due to increasing wind speeds, which eventually made contact with the ground and caused the damage. Moved northwards across Birmingham. TORRO and Met Office classified it as a T3/T4. 80-90 mph winds along axis of tornado assumed.

Daily rainfall 10.8 mm, 21.6°C maximum temperature and 11.6°C minimum temperature recorded on the 28/07/05.

Damaged hundreds of buildings and gardens, uprooting 1000 trees, vehicles lifted off the ground. Huge clean up operation. 19 people injured of which 3 people seriously injured. Part of a supermarket destroyed. Fire service inundated with calls to flash floods. Tiles flying off roofs and smashing into windows, roofs ripped off houses, smashed cars, lampposts lying on the streets of Sparkbrook and rubbish flying around. Debris flying upwards. Roof lifted off a petrol station, bricks flying around. Birmingham City Council reports when people can return to properties. People housed in temporary accommodation as left homeless. Majority of damage in the Kings Heath and Sparkbrook area of Birmingham. Duke of Edinburgh visited residents. Sparkbrook balti restaurant hit. 6 months later people still waiting to move back into homes. One street entirely uninhabitable. Around 100 families displaced and 1000 buildings damaged. Residents outraged. Ladypool Road restaurants affected. Birmingham City Council launches revamp p

Residents, shoppers and workers in the affected areas. West Midlands Fire Service. Birmingham City Council. TORRO, Met Office, local businesses. Central government. Insurance companies. Ambulance Service, Selly Oak and Heartlands hospitals. Police. Ladypool Primary School.

-5 D

37 Storms 31st August 2005

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Heavy rain and lightning.

Daily rainfall 2.4 mm, 28.3°C maximum temp.

Commuters faced delays as rail services disrupted in Birmingham. Dangerous driving conditions.

Commuters, Birmingham New Street and motorists.

-2 B

52

38 Tornado 12-13th October 2005

Moseley, Birmingham. Associated weather affecting Sutton Coldfield, Northfield, Harbourne, Edgbaston, Sparkhill, Stirchley, Small Heath and Erdington.

Second tornado to hit Birmingham in 2005, but not as severe as the one in July 2005. An inch of rain fell within an hour in Edgbaston. Strong winds. Heavy rain. Winds estimated at 80 mph.

Daily rainfall 56.6 mm, 18.3°C maximum temperature and 10.4°C minimum temperature recorded on the 12/10/05.

One home evacuated as roof ripped off and nearby road closed in Moseley. Traffic chaos for motorists. Central Trains services suspended services to Redditch and Lichfield Trent Valley due to flooding in Longbridge. Debris scattered everywhere, trees bending, tiles ripped off roofs, businesses temporarily closed, roofs ripped off homes, trees uprooted and cars overturned. Environment Agency reports the rapid rise of the River Rea. Roads closed in Sutton Coldfield and Harbourne. Flooding affected residents in Erdington, Stirchley, Small Heath and Edgbaston. Clean up operation and fences blew over. Tiles ripped off roofs in Sparkhill. Heavy flooding due to torrential rain blocked roads and increased journey times to up to 2 hours. Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott's office criticized for slow response to Birmingham's 2005 tornados.

Emergency services, residents, motorists,Central Trains, Met Office and Environment Agency. West Midlands Fire Service.

-5 C

39 Drought 2nd February 2006

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

The Midlands only had 31 % of their average monthly rainfall in January.

Daily rainfall zeromm

Environment Agency warns of imposed water restrictions. Threat of hosepipe bans, sprinkler bans, drought permits and orders by water companies.

Environment Agency and water companies

-4 A

40 Snow/Ice 24th February and 3rd and 12th March 2006.

Birmingham Icy winter blast, several inches of snow falling from 2am and temperatures decreased from 3°C to just above freezing.

Daily rainfall 0.4 mm, 1.6°C maximum temperature and -0.8°C minimum temperature recorded on the 24/02/06.

Took motorists by surprise, side roads untreated but Aston Expressway clear of snow and in normal use.

Motorists and gritters -3 B

41 Air Quality 13th March 2006

Birmingham A score of 7 in Nitrogen dioxide readings is given to Birmingham International Airport.

Daily rainfall 0.4 mm, 4.6°C maximum temperature

A score of more than 4 (more than 40 micrograms per cubic metre of air) is believed to be exceeding EU guidelines. Research carried out by Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Birmingham International Airport suggests that high nitrogen dioxide readings may be influenced by traffic along the M42.

Birmingham International Airport, Motorists, residents and Chartered Society of Physiotherapy.

-4 A

42 Lightning 6th July 2006 Birmingham Lightning strike Daily rainfall 8.2 mm, 23.7°C maximum temperature and 8.2°C minimum temperature recorded on the 06/07/06.

Charter flight from Birmingham International Airport struck by lightning shortly after take-off at around 7.40am. Flight diverted to Manchester Airport.

Birmingham International Airport, flight crew and passengers. Manchester Airport.

-4 B

53

43 Heatwave 16th and 28th July 2006

Birmingham Temperatures of 100°F reported in the Cleveland Tower. Temperatures of 34.9°C was reported on the 19th July.

Maximum temperature up to 34.6°C

People sunbathing in the city centre. 6.7 % decrease in passengers flying from Birmingham International Airport. 1.4 % rise in violent crime in the West Midlands, rise in robberies and overcrowding at Birmingham New Street. Heat causing railway lines to buckle. BBC Midlands Today's weather team remade their graphics as they only featured temperatures as high as 32°C. Graphics had to be remade to go up to numbers up to 38. Manor Park Primary School and Aston Tower Community Primary School in Aston closed and infant and nursery classes at Jervoise Junior and Infant School cancelled.

General public and Birmingham International Airport. West Midlands Police and Birmingham New Street. BBC Midlands Today's weather team. Manor Park Primary School, Aston Tower Community Primary School and Jervoise Junior and Infant School.

-5 C

44 Air Quality 25th July 2006 Birmingham Highest levels of air pollutant Nitrogen dioxide due to record breaking July heat. Extreme temperatures and pollution occurring periodically due to heatwave conditions maintaining themselves.

Daily rainfall 0.2 mm, 30.5°C maximum temperature and 15.4°C minimum temperature recorded on the 25/07/06.

Detrimental effect on quality of life for residents, especially those with lung conditions. Data gathered by the European Space Agency's Envisat and Nasa's Aura satellites.

Residents, European Space Agency and NASA.

-4 B

45 Lightning 17th August 2006

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Lightning strike Daily rainfall 7 mm, 19.5°C maximum temp.

Midland Metro service disrupted as lightning struck power cables between Birmingham and Wolverhampton. Power surge caused, tripping electricity breakers. Engineers repaired damage by evening. System's public address system disrupted.

Midland Metro, passengers and engineers.

-4 C

46 Lightning 12th September 2006

Sutton Coldfield, Birmingham

Lightning strike, thunderstorm just after 3pm, sunshine and temperatures of around 25°C prior to lightning. Another storm after lightning strike.

Daily rainfall 1 mm, 26.1°C maximum temperature and 10.8°C minimum temperature recorded on the 11/09/06.

Roof of home catches fire as lightning strikes in Wylde Green, Sutton Coldfield. Chimney exploded, bricks flying and extensive damage. 3 fire crews from Erdington Fire Station try to control severe blaze. Water damage also caused. Flying bricks damaged next door's garage.

Residents of Wylde Green and Erdington Fire Station.

-4 C

47 Flooding 14th September 2006

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Heavy rain of 30 mm in a day.

Only 4.2mm at university

90 minutes delay to services between Kidderminster and Birmingham Moor Street. Motorists advised to take care.

Network Rail, Birmingham Moor Street, motorists and commuters.

-4 B

48 Flooding 4th December 2006

Birmingham -Selly Oak, Edgbaston and Bearwood.

Heavy rain. Around 10 ins of water.

Daily rainfall of 16.8 mm was recorded on the 4th December.

Traffic chaos for motorists. Mini lagoons on A roads. Bristol Road severely affected. Inter-city section outside King Edward's schools and Bournbrook Fire Station flooded. 3 miles of tailbacks. Flooding at the junction with Lordswood Road on the A456 Hagley Road.

Motorists and Police -4 B

54

49 Fog 21st December 2006

Midlands -including Birmingham.

Dense fog 4.6°C maximum temperature

Fog causing slight problems at Birmingham International Airport, but airport extremely busy as flights being diverted into Birmingham International Airport. 100,000 people flying from Birmingham already due to Christmas. Delays on morning flights to and from Birmingham on the 22nd December.

Birmingham International Airport, staff and passengers.

-4 B

50 Heavy Rain 12th January 2007

Midlands -including Birmingham.

A week of torrential rain.

NOT AVAILABLE Birmingham postponing their home football game with Leeds on the 13th January due to problems with the relaid pitch at St. Andrews due to torrential rain in the Midlands. Investigations into Birmingham facing a charge or points deduction for failing to fulfill a fixture.

Birmingham City Football Club, Birmingham City fans and The Football League.

-3 B

51 Storms 18-19th January 2007

Midlands -including Sutton Coldfield, Birmingham.

Wind speeds of 80 mph reported.

NOT AVAILABLE Richard Heard, managing director of Birmingham International Airport, died when a tree branch wentthrough his windscreen. Speed restrictions and expected delays on Central Trains. Chiltern Trains reduces its services. Birmingham New Street was temporarily closed during rush hour due to safety reasons as increased passengers due to cancelled services. Homes without power in the West Midlands. Virgin Trains cancels some services. Search resumes for a shoplifter who fell into the swollen River Thame. Falling tress on the rail network -tree blown onto the Birmingham and Lichfield line at Sutton Coldfield.

Birmingham International Airport, Chiltern Trains, Central Trains, Birmingham New Street and commuters. Virgin Trains. Rescue workers and workmen.

-5 D

52 Snow/Ice 8-10th February 2007

Birmingham Rain combining with thaw snow and ice. Snow between 5 and 15 cms on the ground. Snow storm moving north-eastwards. Fresh snow on the 9th February.

Daily rainfall 7.4 mm, -0.1°C maximum temperature and -2°C minimum temperature recorded on the 08/02/07. Daily rainfall of 18.4 mm on the 9th and 13.2 mm on the 10thFebruary were also recorded.

Traffic gridlock for many hours. West Midlands Police advise not to travel unless absolutely unavoidable. Birmingham City Council open doors of Council House for people who had abandoned cars to get cups of tea. West Midlands Ambulance Service deals with 300 more calls. Birmingham International Airport suspends flights for 3 hours. A slump in trade, into their millions, for hundreds of businesses in the city centre as area deserted. Many staff also looking after children at home due to school closures. Devastating few days for entertainment world. Buses stranded. People unable to get to work. West Midlands Ambulance Service out to 3 incidents on the morning of 8th February in Sparkbrook, Edgbaston and Marston Green. Roads salted and 805 schools closed on the 8th February and 400 schools closed for the second day on the 9th February. Birmingham City Council reported that 180,000 pupils, 10,000 teachers and 10,000 support staff affected. Every Birmingham council-run nursery closed. Parents forced to look afte

Motorists, Birmingham City Council, West Midlands Police and Ambulance Service. Holiday makers and Birmingham International Airport. Travel West Midlands. Heartlands and Selly Oak hospitals. Gritters and school children. Parents, teachers and support staff. Highways Agency.

-5 C

53 Heavy Rain 14th February 2007

Midlands -including Birmingham.

Up to 20 mm of rain.

Only about 3 mm at University

Treacherous driving conditions and flooding. Environment Agency issues flood warnings for homes around the River Severn.

Motorists, Environment Agency and homes around the River Severn.

-4 A

55

54 Heatwave 14th April 2007 Birmingham Temperatures of 24°C, well above seasonal average.

Maximum temperatures of 21.5°C on the 14th and 23.2°C on the 15th were also recorded.

Traffic chaos and public enjoying warm temperatures. Motorists and general public

1 B

55 Lightning 1st June 2007 Bordesley Green, Birmingham

Thunder and rain. Lightning around 4pm. 3 mm of rain in Birmingham.

Daily rainfall3.2mm on 31st May

Firefighters from Ward End and Sheldon called to Birmingham's Heartland Hospital, Bordesley Green, after roof struck by lightning.

Firefighters from Ward End and Sheldon and Birmingham's Heartland Hospital.

-4 C

56 Flooding 15th June 2007 Birmingham -Edgbaston, Sutton Coldfield and Birmingham City Centre.

More than 86 mm of rain fell in 24 hours in Edgbaston. One and a half inches of rain fell in Birmingham between 11pm and 1am.

Daily rainfall 98 mm

Drivers and homeowners affected by downpour. Emergency crew stretched to the limit. Rail commuters stranded as services disrupted or cancelled. Virgin trains not stopping at Birmingham New Street or Birmingham International. Arriva Trains services terminating at Wolverhampton instead. Drivers caught in traffic jam after a disabled woman's car stranded in the middle of the road in flood water in Water Orton Lane, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield at 7.15am.

Drivers, homeowners, emergency crew, rail commuters, Virgin Trains, Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Arriva Trains.

-6 C

56 (Con) Worst floods to hit Birmingham for years.

100 people trapped in factory after River Tame burst. Water rose up to 6 feet deep around plant in Water Orton Lane, Minworth, Sutton Coldfield. 200 houses flooded in Aston. 90 people still inside property, preferring to sit it out rather than move. Fire crews on standby with boats. Central Trains suspended services. Streets of houses in Witton flooded. Many people still living in temporary accommodation a month later. Poorest families without insurance. £300 charge by Fire Brigade to pump water out of homes. Many risking health by living with stagnant, insect and rat-infested water in basements in Witton. Smelly basements. Several roads affected. Residents in Witton claim the Environment Agency failed to raise flood warning and lorries continued to drive up narrow streets creating waves, which added to the chaos. Network Rail reports of delayed services on the Birmingham to Cannock line. Virgin West Coast notstopping at Birmingham stations. Flood warnings issued for the River Cole from Shard End to Coleshill

Workers at WH Smith and Son Tools Ltd factory, residents, fire service and Central Trains. Environment Agency. Insurance companies, Fire Brigade. Network Rail. Birmingham New Street and passengers. Virgin West Coast. The Cross City Line North. Plant in Water Orton Lane.

56

57 Flooding 16th June, 18th June, 22nd June

Birmingham -Sparkhill, Edgbaston.

Heavy rain resulting in the River Cole and River Tame toburst banks at about midnight. Up to an inch rainfall in some parts of the West Midlands. 65 mm of rain fell in just six hours. Rain swept in at around 9pm on the 20th June 2007.

Daily rainfall 14.2 mm, 19.3°C maximum temperature and 13.1°C minimum temperature recorded on the 15/06/07. Daily rainfall 98 mm, 17.2°C maximum temperature and 14.1°C minimum temperature recorded on the 14/06/07. Daily rainfall 71 mm

Eid Mela postponed due to condition of Cannon Hill Park. Residents receive food goodie bags from various local businesses delivered by the Birmingham Mail. Cadbury's give hundreds of chocolate bars to children in Sparkhill. Land Rover donates vehicles in the flooding emergency. Bangla Mela moved from Small Heath Park to Handsworth Park amid Council concerns over safety resulting in members of the Bangladesh Community Trust raising the issue of loss of money. Birmingham-based Severn Trent faced £18.2M loss as 140,000 households lost their water supplies. 40 ambulance workers honoured for work. Hundreds of people fled homes - 200 people evacuated. 60 people left homes in Sparkhill, where 35 people spent night at rest centre. More than 200 sandbags used, sent by Birmingham City Council. Rail services disrupted, A45 and smaller roads shut and Environment Agency stretched. Troubled Waters - An Inside Out Floods Special programme made in Birmingham. 11 year old boy fell into fast moving water. Public transport affe

Residents, local businesses, Birmingham Mail, Cadbury, Land Rover, Birmingham City Council and Bangladesh Community Trust. Birmingham-based Severn Trent. Ambulance service. Train stations including Birmingham New Street and Birmingham Snow Hill. Motorists and Environment Agency. West Midlands Fire Service. Bullring.

-6 D

58 Heavy Rain 25th June 2007 Birmingham 20 - 30 mm of rainfall.

Over 22mm on 24th

and 25th JuneMet Office warns of heavy rainfall. Difficult driving conditions.

Motorists and Met Office

-4 A

59 Lightning 18th July 2007 Hodge Hill, Birmingham

Lightning strikes and storms.

Daily rainfall 3.6 mm, 19.7°C maximum temperature and 12.7°C minimum temperature recorded on the 17/07/07.

4 houses hit by lightning strikes in Douglas Avenue, Hodge Hill. Fire crews from Sheldon called out at 2.30pm. Lightning cut many home's electricity through their aerials. The surge exploded a TV set in one property. Lightning took out about a dozen bricks in a chimney stack. Sheldon firefighters had to call out crew from Ward End for extra assistance. Lightning hit a house roof in Bartley Woods, Bartley Green, just before 2pm. West Midlands Ambulance Service on hand to help.

Residents from Douglas Avenue, firefighters from Sheldon and Ward End, owner of house in Bartley Woods and West Midlands Ambulance Service.

-4 C

60 Heavy Rain 27th July 2007 Birmingham Up to an inch of rainfall.

Daily rainfall 15.2 mm, 17°C maximum temperature and 13.2°C minimum temperature recorded on the 26/07/07.

Met Office issues severe weather warning. Environment Agency warns residents to be aware of flash flooding and river levels quickly rising due to the already saturated ground in the Midlands.

Met Office, Environment Agency and residents.

-4 A

57

61 Lightning 17th August 2007

Birmingham Lightning strike Daily rainfall 0 mm, 18.2°C maximum temperature and 9°C minimum temperature recorded on the 17/08/07.

Flybe plane struck by lightning just after take off from Birmingham International Airport. Bolt of lightning struck nose cone. Fuzzy blue light around plane. Plane diverted to Manchester Airport.

Passengers and crew of Flybe plane, Birmingham International Airport and Manchester Airport.

-4 C

62 Flooding 24th September 2007

Birmingham Torrential rain storms. Heavy rain and strong winds. Monsoon-style downpour from 5am. Active weather fronts.

Daily rainfall 20 mm, 16.4°C maximum temperature and 10°C minimum temperature recorded on the 24/09/07.

Roads flooded. Commuters battling to make journey to work. Mayhem on motorways. Train services affected. Motorists forced on grass verges as Hagley Road West flooded 200 yards from New Wolverhampton Road. Motorists forced to drive through around 2 ft of water near Bristol Street Motors on Bristol Road. Delays and cancellations in train services. Environment Agency issue flood watch warnings on Middle Tame, rivers Rea, Cole, Stour and Smestow Brook.

Commuters, motorists and Highways Agency. Train services and Environment Agency.

-4 C

63 Snow/Ice 19th November 2007

Birmingham Melting snow causing severe slippery conditions.

Daily rainfall 14.2 mm, 8.1°C maximum temperature and 0.5°C minimum temperature

Birmingham Fire Station covered in snow. 8 people hurt in the snow in M42 crash, including a man from Handsworth.

Birmingham Fire Station and motorists on M42.

-4 D

64 Strong Winds

7th January 2008

Smethwick, Birmingham

Strong winds before 5am.

Daily rainfall 0.6 mm, 7.2°C maximum temperature and 2°C minimum temperature recorded on the 07/01/08.

Residents in six-storey block of flats in Thimblemill Road, Smethwick, have lucky escape when 40 ft poplar tree snapped at base and fell onto the building. Smethwick firefighters arrive at scene. 30 ft scaffolding tower blown over in Steelhouse Lane. Traffic hold-ups at St Chads Queensway tunnel after a Christmas tree awaiting removal blown into road.

Residents of flats at Thimblemill Road, Smethwick Fire Station and motorists at St Chads Queensway tunnel.

-4 C

65 Flooding and Snow/Ice

12th January 2008

Birmingham -Kings Heath and Longbridge.

30 mm of rainfall. Snow and black ice.

Daily rainfall 3 mm, 7.2°C maximum temperature and -4.9°C minimum temperature recorded on the 12/01/08.

Difficult driving conditions. West Midlands Ambulance Service called out to 8 crashes in 2 hours due to ice. Environment Agency issues a series of flood warnings. 4 people in Birmingham rescued from cars after getting trapped due to rising flood waters. 3 men rescued from roof of Land Rover due to flood waters in Kings Heath at 2am. Man trapped in vehicle in Longbridge and rescued by Northfield Fire Station. M4 and M5 severely affected by snow and flooding. Police warn drivers to take care and avoid driving if possible.

Motorists, general public, police, Environment Agency and West Midlands Ambulance Service. Northfield Fire Station.

-5 D

66 Heavy Rain 18-19th January 2008

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

30 mm of rain. Daily rainfall 8.2 mm, 12.5°C maximum temperature

Environment Agency issues flood alerts with advice from the Met Office due to concern over the River Severn.

Environment Agency, Met Office and residents.

-4 A

58

67 Snow/Ice 29-30th January and 1st, 15th and 20th February 2008.

Birmingham Snowstorm, high winds of up to 70 mph, icy blast. Temperatures of -4°C recorded. Heavy rain and a few cms of snow.

Daily rainfall 0 mm, 6.7°C maximum temperature and -1.1°C minimum temperature recorded on the 30/01/08.Minimum temperatures of -2°C on the 1st, -3.8°C on the 15th and -2.7°C on the 20th February recorded.

Dog from the Cannes Film Festival goes missing in snowstorm. Midland motorway to use snow/ice pictograms to warn drivers of dangers. Treacherous driving conditions.

Highways Agency and motorists

-3 A

68 Strong Winds

31st January 2008

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Heavy rain and snow showers. Gusts of 60 mph.

Daily rainfall 9 mm, 6.6°C maximum temperature and 1.2°C minimum temperature recorded on the 31/01/08.

Treacherous driving conditions as icy conditions on the road as highlighted by the Met Office.

Motorists and Met Office

-2 A

69 Strong Winds

1st February 2008

Moseley, Birmingham

Strong winds just after 2.45pm. Arctic weather. Rain showers turning into sleet.

Daily rainfall 9 mm, 6.6°C maximum temperature and 1.2°C minimum temperature

A baby girl almost died after the strong winds blew the pushchair she was in into a lake in Moseley Park, as mother and baby fed ducks. Terrified mother jumped in to save the 11 month old baby girl. West Midlands Ambulance Service were called and they were both taken to Birmingham City Hospital.

Baby girl and mother, Moseley Park and West Midlands Ambulance Service. Birmingham City Hospital.

-4 D

70 High Winds 3rd March 2008 Birmingham City Centre

Gusts Daily rainfall 0.2 mm, 5.7°C maximum temperature and -3.2°C minimum temperature recorded on the 03/03/08.

Firefighters remove Waterstones store sign after it came loose due to the high winds at around 3pm on the Saturday in the city centre. Police cordoned off the area in the High Street, near the Bullring, to keep shoppers safe. Sheer number of people passing Waterstones from the Bullring.

Firefighters, Waterstones, Police, shoppers and Bullring.

-3 C

71 High Winds 12th March 2008

Birmingham Wind speeds of more than 50 mph.

Daily rainfall 0.6 mm, 7°C maximum temperature and 2.4°C minimum temperature recorded on the 03/03/08.

Virgin Trains cancel at least one train an hour between Birmingham New Street, London Euston and Manchester Piccadilly. One flight affected at Birmingham International Airport.

Virgin Trains, Birmingham New Street, commuters, Birmingham International Airport and passengers.

-2 B

59

72 Flooding 16-17th March 2008

Kings Norton, Birmingham

Flood waters up to windscreen of car level.

Daily rainfall 19.2 mm, 7.3°C maximum temperature and 1.6°C minimum temperature recorded on the 16/03/08.

Man rescued from car by West Midlands Ambulance Service as stuck in flood waters. Vehicle trapped at junction of Primrose Hill and Icknield Street. 3 people trapped in taxi at 2am. 85 year old man drives into Ford at 10am. West Midlands Fire Service aid in rescue.

Motorists, passengers and West Midlands Ambulance Service. West Midlands Fire Service.

-4 D

73 Cold Weather

24-25th March 2008

West Midlands -including Birmingham.

Arctic weather. A temperature of -2°C overnight and rain. Temperatures of -4°C recorded on the night of the 24th March.

6.4°C maximum temperature and -0.8°C minimum temperature recorded on the 25/03/08.

Dangerous driving conditions reported by the AA. Motorists and AA -3 A

74 Snow/Ice 5-7th April 2008

Birmingham 4 inches of snow, rain, sleet, hail and cold wind. Temperatures of -3°C.

Daily rainfall 2.8 mm, 6.2°C maximum temperature and -0.2°C minimum temperature recorded on the 05/04/08.

Youngsters enjoying snow outside due to weekend. Organisers of the Birmingham Insurance Institute charity cancel 5 km and 10 km runs. Flights diverting into Birmingham International Airport.

General public and Birmingham Insurance Institute charity. Birmingham International Airport.

-3 B

75 Air Quality 10th May 2008 West Midlands -including Birmingham.

First summer smog this weekend. High ozone levels -formed when sunlight interacts with nitrogen dioxide and other pollutants.

Daily rainfall 0 mm, 22.9°C maximum temperature and 9.5°C minimum temperature recorded on the 10/05/08.

DEFRA warns that ground-level ozone affects some people's breathing and people with asthma. Environment department urge people to take care and avoid exercise outdoors in the afternoon to reduce exposure and avoid short car journeys.

Environment department at DEFRA and residents of Birmingham.

-4 A

60

Appendix B Interview Sheet

Incident-Related Interview: Birmingham’s Local Climate Impacts Profile

As part of Birmingham’s Local Climate Impacts Profile, research is being gathered on climate-related incidents that have affected Birmingham, especially over the last ten years through various media sources and interviews, and how the incident has affected various services and Birmingham City Council.

Climate-related incident:

To be filled in

Section 1: Contact Details

NamePositionServiceTelephoneEmail

Section 2: Impacts of Climate-related Incident

2.1 How would you rate the impact of this incident on your service? Please circle.0=Insignificant, 1=Minor Significance, 2=Fairly Significant, 3=Highly Significant and 4=Major Significance.

0 1 2 3 4

2.2 How did the incident affect your service more or differently than usual, in terms of service delivery, hours of work, costs and reputation of service?

Area Level Affected (Please provide details)Service Delivery

Hours of Work

Costs Incurred

Reputation of Service

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2.3 Who or which department was mainly affected by this incident?

2.4 Were any priorities, long-term plans or strategies (strategic goals) within the service affected by this incident?

2.5 What was the overall financial cost of the incident?

Section 3: Responses of the Climate-related Incident

Climate-related incident response:

To be filled in

3.1 Is this an accurate summary of how you responded to the incident? If no, please give details.

3.2 What influenced your response to the incident? Please give details.Influence of

ResponseDetails

PolicyThresholdsPrecedentsAdvice

3.3 Who is involved in monitoring this response? Please give details.Influence of

ResponseDetails

PolicyThresholdsPrecedentsAdvice

62

3.4 How would you rate your service’s response? Please circle.-2=Very Poor, -1=Poor, 0=Average, 1=Good and 2=Excellent

-2 -1 0 1 2

3.5 Is there anything that could have been done differently? Please give details.Yes/No:

Section 4: Preparation and Adaptation

4.1 Have any extra provisions been made should this incident occur again? Please give details.Adaptive Capacity (Research, training, policies, management)Actual Adaptation (Infrastructure, operation)

4.2 Are there any alternative provisions that could be made to help you deal with this sort of incident? Please give details.Adaptive Capacity (Research, training, policies, management)Actual Adaptation (Infrastructure, operation)

4.3 How would you rate this issue as a priority to your service? Please circle.1=Low, 2=Medium-Low, 3=Medium, 4=Medium-High and 5= High.

1 2 3 4 5

Section 5: Further Information

5.1 Were any other organisations affected by this incident?

5.2 Has a report or review been made about this incident?

5.3 Are there any other ways that weather/climate affects your service? If so, who can be contacted about this?

Contact Name: Position: Phone/Email:

5.4 Can we contact you again if we have further questions? Yes/No

63

Any Further Comments:

Thank you for your time and help. The information will help inform the Council on how Birmingham can reduce its vulnerability to weather/climate events.

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APPENDIX C – Halesowen Annual Summaries 2005-07

Year 2005 Summary

Mild and dry Jan/start Feb.Cooler end Feb into March, with some snow.Mild end to March.Changeable mild April, and dry May.Settled sunny June and start July, drier than normal.End July wet from localised torrential storms in the area.Bright sunny and dry Aug/Sep.Mild and wet Oct/start Nov.Cooler end to November with some snow.Changeable and drier than normal in December, with mild start and a cold wintery finish.

TEMPERATURES

14.5 mean max (C) 0.7 diff from av (C)7.4 mean min (C) 1.0 diff from av (C)10.9 mean (C) 0.8 diff from av (C)

31.3 high max (C) on 19 Jun1.3 low max (C) on 28 Dec18.2 high min (C) on 19 Jun,13 Jul, 15 Jul-4.4 low min (C)on 29 Dec, 30 Dec

RAINFALL

683.4 rain total (mm) 87.7 % of av167 raindays (no. of days with 0.2mm or more)113 wetdays (no. of days with 1.0mm or more)34.9 most in a day (mm) on 12 Oct date

FROST, SNOW, THUNDER

37 days with air frost (air min temp -0.1C or less)8 days with sleet/snow falling (in the UK from 0000-2400 GMT)6 days with 50% snow cover at morning observation hour5 days with thunder heard (in the UK from 0000-2400 GMT)

HUMIDITY

88.7 mean Relative Humidity at morning observation

PRESSURE

1014.5 mean pressure (mb)1041 max pressure at any time of day on 13 Dec,14 Dec971 min pressure at any time of day on 3 Dec

65

Year 2006 Summary

The annual mean temperature 11.6 is the highest recorded here in the last 50 years, 4 of the top 5 annual means being since 2002.The 30 year (1971-2000) annual mean temperature here is 10.1, and for the last 50 years has been 9.5.Jan, Feb, Mar were cooler than last year, but all the other months were warmer, with May, June, July and Sept giving the highest monthly mean temperature recorded here in the last 50 years.Notably July's mean this year was 5.0 degrees higher than the 50 year average July temperature, with 19th July providing a 50 year July record maximum of 34.9, the following night not surprisingly giving the 2nd highest minimum for July (beaten by 1.0 degree in 1975).Rainfall at 681mm was 87% of the 30 year average, and 92% of the 50 year average.Interestingly May was the wettest since 1983, but June the driest since 1983 also.The hottest month, July, was the driest only since 1999.TEMPERATURES16.1 mean max (C)+2.3 diff from av (C)7.2 mean min (C)+0.8 diff from av (C)11.6 mean (C)+1.5 diff from av (C)34.9 high max (C) on 19 July (new record)0.7 low max (C) on 2 Feb19.2 high min (C) on 20 July (new record)-7.2 low min (C) on 3 MarchRAINFALL681 rain total (mm)87.3 % of avg185 raindays (no. of days with 0.2mm or more)127 wetdays (no. of days with 1.0mm or more)31.0 most in a day (mm) on 21 MayFROST, SNOW, THUNDER32 air frost (air min temp -0.1C or less)7 sleet/snow falling (in the UK from 0000-2400 GMT)4 50% snow cover at morning observation hour11 thunder heard (in the UK from 0000-2400 GMT)11 fog at morning observation hourTHUNDER11 May, 13 May, 21 May, 12 June, 17 Aug, 18 Aug, 23 Aug, 14 Sept, 24 Sept, 1 Oct, 11 Oct

snowfalling, 24 Feb, 28 Feb, 1 Mar, 2 Mar, 4 Mar, 5 Mar, 12 Mar

snow lying at 090024 Feb2 Mar4 Mar12 Mar

HUMIDITY80.5 mean RH at morning observationPRESSURE1013.6 mean pressure (mb)1043.9 max pressure at any time of day on 22 Dec974.9 min pressure at any time of day on 23 Nov

66

Year 2007 Summary

TEMPERATURE

Most monthly mean temperatures were above average, except July/August,giving an annual mean 0.7 above the 30 year values.

The highest daily mean (20.6 C) is the lowest since 1993.The lowest daily max was the lowest since 1998, the lowest daily minimum was thelowest since 2002, and the highest daily minimum was the lowest since 1998.14.6 mean max (C)+0.8 diff from av (C)6.9 mean min (C)+0.5 diff from av (C)10.8 mean (C)+0.7 diff from av (C)27.7 high max (C) on 5 Aug0.3 low max (C) on 8 Feb16.5 high min (C) on 4 Aug-7.5 low min (C) on 7 Feb

There were only 32 airfrosts, the third lowest number in 51 years of records,beaten only by 28 in 2002 and 29 in 1974.The last airfrost this spring on 21 Mar was the 2nd earliest on record,beaten only by 7 Mar in 2005.

RAINFALLHigh rainfall produced some high scores in our records -the daily rainfall of 68mm on 20 Jul was the 4th highest on record.Monthly rainfall for July (181mm) was the 2nd highest on record, closelyfollowed by June (171mm) which earned 3rd highest on record.These were the highest monthly rainfalls seen since Sept 1976.Annual rainfall (938mm) was the 3rd highest on record here, the highest since 2000.938 rain total (mm)120.4 % of av175 raindays (with 0.2mm or more)139 wetdays (with 1.0mm or more)68 most in a day (mm) on 20 Jul

5 sleet/snow falling6 50% snow cover8 days thunder heard14 days with fog83.8 % mean Relative Humidity1015.4 mean pressure (mb)1040.8 max pressure on 4 Feb974.5 min pressure on 10 Dec

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Weather Diary

Mr. C.G. Roberts’ Private Weather Diaries for Halesowen, from 1990, 1991, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999 have also been provided from the Met Office1. The weather station was situated in semi-rural surroundings and was a typical ‘garden-site’. A summary from these years has been provided below.

“1990 sent many long-standing records tumbling. Perhaps the most significant was the record maximum temperature of 34.7C of August 3rd…Though total rainfall was about 81 % of the 30-year norm…Then to cap the lot, Christmas Day saw torrential rain accompanied by gale force winds, a freak hail storm with thunder and a spell of sleet….What will 1991 bring, if indeed, these are the signs of global warming?” 1990

“1991 did not produce the succession of record breaking weather as did 1990…The mean daily temperature of 9.3C was within 0.1C of the 30-year mean….Rainfall was down on usual at 83%...” 1991

“1993 was an average year in many respects, and very changeable. Only a few records tumbled, mainly for cold, and it was a much windier year than usual” 1993

“If anything, July was an even better month than June, being predominantly warm, dry and sunny. Of the nine hot days recorded, the best was the 22nd, when temperatures peaked at 30.5C, an anomaly of +3.3” 1996

“The winter season of 1997 – 1998 was a relatively mild one….With a mean daily temperature of 5.7C, it was the fourth warmest on record” Winter of 1997 to 1998

“The spring season was one of the more open in the last 43 years…The mean dailytemperature of 9.5C placed it in fourth position marginally behind last year, whilst the mean maximum temperature of 13.7C was also the fourth best on record…exceptionally wet April which itself produced 106.7 mm of rain and 25 rain days…Snow lay on 3 days to a maximum depth of 5cm on April 1st…” Spring 1998

“The summer of 1998 was the worst, in general terms….Temperatures were all well below those of recent summers…The warmest day, August 11th with 27.5C was itself the lowest since 25.6C in 1993…Rainfall however, was not excessive, being well below the 256.6 mm of last summer…” Summer 1998

“1999 was another exceptional year in terms of warmth. The mean daily temperature of 10.4C equalled that of 1997 and 1989 coming second to the 10.6C of 1990. This is now the seventh month to register above 10C since 1956, and the 6th in the last decade…Rainfall in1999 stood at 898.3 mm, the second wettest since records began in 1946…” 1999

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APPENDIX D Air Quality

Air Quality Information

Air quality is also an important variable to consider however, due to time constraints, further work on this could not be carried out. Air quality responds to daily weather variations and has significant implications to society (McGregor et al, 1996). During Christmas 1992, Birmingham experienced elevated pollution levels (McGregor et al, 1992). From December 20th to the 28th, the World Health Organisation 24-hour guideline limit of 80 ppb of nitrogen dioxide was exceeded on the 23rd and 24th December and therefore, Birmingham’s air quality was classified as poor for 16 hours by the UK Department of Environment. A level of 207 ppb of nitrogen dioxide was recorded at 2am on the 24th. This was the highest recorded levels for Central Birmingham since records began in 1992. Record hourly mean concentrations for carbon monoxide (14 ppm on the 23rd at 11pm) and PM10 (231 ug/m³ on the 23rd at 10pm) were also reached. Weather conditions were responsible for these elevated levels, in particular low wind speeds and the extension of the Siberian anticyclonic ridge over the United Kingdom (McGregor et al, 1996) (Figure 19).

Figure 19Synoptic Conditions for the 1992 Christmas Pollution Episode in Birmingham(source: Wetterzentrale, 25th December 1992).