Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
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Transcript of Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
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Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points
in African drylands
Aidan Keane
University College London, Institute of Zoology & International Livestock Research Institute
16 August 2011
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Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Background• Rangelands as complex socio-economic
systems• Policy, institutional and economic
pressures…• …favouring privatisation• …and/or devolution of resource
management• Concern about enclosure, loss of mobility,
land degradation, poverty and biodiversity loss
• Potential existence of tipping points
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Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Objectives• To develop a conceptual framework
linking policy, land-use and livelihoods through pastoralist decision-making
• To construct and validate models of pastoralist decision-making
• To evaluate policy relevant scenarios• To disseminate our findings to policy
makers and communities
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Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
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Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Homewood et al. (2009) “Staying Maasai”
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Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Homewood et al. (2009) “Staying Maasai”
• Southern Kenya/northern Tanzania
• Northern Kenya/southern Ethiopia
• Initial focus on the Maasai Mara
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Biodiversity, ecosystem services, social sustainability and tipping points in African drylands
Background Objectives Framework Methods
Methods• Statistical analysis of existing datasets• Modelling of household decision-making• Utility maximisation• Stochastic dynamic programming• Strategic interaction
• Experimental tests of decision models?• Agent-based simulation modelling for
scenario exploration (e.g., payments for ecosystem services, climate change)
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