BIO503: Lecture 4 Statistical models in R Stefan Bentink [email protected].
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Transcript of BIO503: Lecture 4 Statistical models in R Stefan Bentink [email protected].
Statistical tests in R
Just some examples:
> t.test()
> pairwise.t.test()
> chisq.test()
> fisher.test()
> ks.test()
> …
One sample t-test
> data(ChickWeight)> t.test(ChickWeight[, 1], mu = 100)
One Sample t-test
data: ChickWeight[, 1]
t = 7.3805, df = 577, p-value = 5.529e-13
alternative hypothesis: true mean is not equal to 100
95 percent confidence interval:
116.0121 127.6246
sample estimates:
mean of x
121.8183
Two sample t-test
> t.test(ChickWeight$weight[ChickWeight$Diet == "1"],
+ ChickWeight$weight[ChickWeight$Diet =="2"])
Welch Two Sample t-test
data: ChickWeight$weight[ChickWeight$Diet == "1"] and ChickWeight$weight[ChickWeight$Diet == "2"]
t = -2.6378, df = 201.384, p-value = 0.008995
alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
95 percent confidence interval:
-34.899942 -5.042482
sample estimates:
mean of x mean of y
102.6455 122.6167
Linear Regression Models
residual error
regression coefficient
dependent variable
intercept independent variable
Using the methods of least squares, we can derive the following estimators:
Our goal is to test the hypothesis: 0^
We can do this with a T test:
)(
0^
^
SEt
under the null hypothesis, this follows a T distribution with (n-1) df.
Installing ISwR Package
Please install the ISwR package on your computer.
This package contains all the data sets used in Peter Dalgaard's book Introductory Statistics with R.
To load the package into your current R session:
> library(ISwR)
To find out more information, including what objects are contained in a package:
> library(help=ISwR)
Example Dataset tlc
We'll be using the dataset tlc that exists in ISwR package.
To load this dataset:
> data(tlc) # tlc = total lung capacity
What kind of object is tlc?
> class(tlc)
To learn about this dataset:
> help(tlc)
By using the attach command, we release the columns of the data.frame into the workspace.
> attach(tlc)
> age
Linear Regression with lm
Is there a linear relationship between height and Total Lung Capacity (TLC)?
> lmObject <- lm(tlc ~ height, data=tlc)
What kind of object is lmObject?
> class(lmObject)
The model object represents an object that encapsulates the results of a model fit.
The desired quantities can be obtained using extractor functions.
A basic extractor function is summary:
> summary(lmObject)
Interpreting the Output from lm
Call:... Stores the call to the lm function. Handy for keeping track of what model you fit.
Residuals:...
Coefficients:...
Summary stats of the residuals from the model. Recall: residuals should follow approximately a standard Normal distribution if the model is a good fit.
Estimates from the model. Standard error. T statistics. P-value.
Residual standard error:...
22
22
n
xy
n
SS iiRES
Residual variance
22
^^
n
SS
n
RES
Plug in estimates, to get RSE:
Interpreting the Output from lm
Multiple R-squared:...
Pearson correlation coefficient2 of y, x (e.g. tlc, height).
Do cor(tlc[,4], height))^2 to check.
F statistic: This is the F test that the regression coefficient is zero.
Adjust R-squared:...
Visualizing Our Fitted Model
So what does it really mean, to have fit a linear model of TLC and height?
Plot the data:
> TLC <- tlc[,4]
> plot(height, TLC)
Add the regression line we fit with our model:
> abline(lmObject)
Values Fitted by the Linear Model
Retrieve the fitted values using the extractor function fitted:
> fitted(lmObject)
Convince yourself that these are the points that fall on the line we just made in the previous plot.
> plot(height, TLC)
> abline(lmObject)
> points(height, fitted(lmObject), pch=20, col="red")
To grab the residual values:
> resid(lmObject)
Eyeballing Good Fit
We can use the information from the residuals and fitted values to create plots to see how good our model fit is.
> plot(height, TLC)
> abline(lmObject)
Use the segments function to draw vertical lines from the fitted values to the real data values.
> segments(height, fitted(lmObject), height, TLC)
We can also take a look at the residuals.
> plot(height, resid(lmObject))
And use a QQ plot to see if the residuals are normally distributed.
> qqnorm(resid(lmObject))
> qqline(resid(lmObject))
Confidence Interval BandsConfidence bands are added to regression lines to reflect the
uncertainty about a true parameter that cannot be observed i.e. the true regression coefficient .
The more narrow the confidence band is, suggests a well-determined line.
Using the predict function without any other input arguments yields the fitted values predicted by the model.
> predict(lmObject)
To compute the confidence interval bands for the fitted values, you need to specify the interval argument:
> predict(lmObject, interval="confidence")
Visualizing Confidence Interval Bands
Go ahead and plot these values:
> pp <- predict(lmObject, interval="confidence")
> plot(height, pp[,1], type="l", ylim=range(pp))
> lines(height, pp[,2], col="red", lwd=3)
> lines(height, pp[,3], col="blue", lwd=3)
What's the problem?
Predicting on New Data
Our problem will be solved if height was ordered sequentially.
One solution: predict fitted values on new (ordered) height values.
Create a sequence of numbers that go from min(height) to max(height) approximately.
> range(height)
> new <- data.frame(height = seq(from=120, to=200, by=2))
Compute new predictions:
> pp.new <- predict(lmObject, new, interval="confidence")
Plotting Confidence Interval Bands
Now we can make the plot. First the fitted values: > plot(new$height, pp.new[,1], type="l")
Then the upper interval band:> lines(new$height, pp.new[,2], col="red",
lwd=2)
Finally the lower interval band:> lines(new$height, pp.new[,3], col="blue",
lwd=2)
Prediction Interval Bands
Prediction interval bands reflect the uncertainty about future observations.
Prediction bands are generally wider than the confidence interval bands.
> predict(lmObject, interval="prediction")
Plot the fitted data with the prediction interval bands and confidence interval bands superimposed.
> pp.pred <- predict(lmObject, new, interval="prediction")
> pp.conf <- predict(lmObject, new, interval="confidence")
Visualizing Fitted Values, Prediction and Confidence BandsNote: instead of using lines individually, we can also use the
function matlines which plots columns of a matrix. > help(matlines)
> plot(new$height, pp.pred[,1], ylim=range(pp.pred, pp.conf))
Add the prediction bands:> matlines(new$height, pp.pred[,-1], type=c("l",
"l"), lwd=c(3,3), col=c("red", "blue"), lty=c(1,1))
Add the confidence bands:> matlines(new$height, pp.conf[,-1], type=c("l",
"l"), lwd=c(3,3),col=c("red", "blue"), lty=c(2,2))
ANOVA Models
The (one-way) ANOVA model generalizes linear regression. – One factor that has G levels. – For each level we have J replicates.
ijiijY j = 1
j = JJ re
pli
cate
s
i = 1 i = Gi = 2 …
…
G levels
ANOVA Model:
Analysis of Variance Models
j = 1
j = JJ re
pli
cate
s
i = 1 i = Gi = 2 …
…
G levels
1
_
x Gx_
ix_
_
x
ijx
11x
i j
iB xxSSD2__
i j
iijW xxSSD2_
i j
ijTOTALWB xxSSDSSDSSD2_
Total variation:
Variation between groups:
Variation within groups:
ANOVA is all about splitting variation up.
ANOVA ModelsQuestion: is there a significant relationship between our factor A
and the response variable Y? If yes, then ideally the variation within groups should be small. The variation between groups should be large.
Variation between groups:
Variation within groups:
1B
SSDMS B
B
1W
SSDMS W
W
Our test statistic:W
B
MS
MSF
General idea:Under the null hypothesis that the factor A has no effect: F = 1.Large values of F indicate the factor is significant.
B = # levels
W = n - B
ANOVA ExampleLet's use a different dataset:
> library(MASS)
> data(ChickWeight)
> attach(ChickWeight)
The factor Diet has 4 levels.
> levels(Diet)
> anova(lm(weight ~ Diet, data=ChickWeight))
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: weight
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Diet 3 155863 51954 10.81 6.433e-07
Residuals 574 2758693 4806
Two-way ANOVAWe can fit a two-way ANOVA:
> anova(lm(weight ~ Diet + Chick, data=ChickWeight))
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: weight
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Diet 3 155863 51954 11.5045 2.571e-07
Chick 46 374243 8136 1.8015 0.001359
Residuals 528 2384450 4516
The interpretation of the model output is sequential, from the bottom to the top.
This line tests the model: weight ~ Diet + Chick
This line tests the model: weight ~ Diet vs weight ~ Diet + Chick.
Multiple Linear Regression
Multiple explanatory variables to explain a response variable.
Can I explain the values of the response variable by the levels of the explanatory variables?
Do I need all explanatory variables to explain the response variable?
Specifying ModelsIn R we use model formula to specify the model we want to fit to
our data. y ~ x Simple Linear Regressiony ~ x – 1 Simple Linear Regression
without the intercept (line goes through origin)
y ~ x1 + x2 + x3 Multiple Regressiony ~ x + I(x^2) Quadratic Regressionlog(y) ~ x1 + x2 Multiple Regression of
Transformed VariableFor factors A, B:y ~ A 1-way ANOVA y ~ A + B 2-way ANOVAy ~ A*B 2-way ANOVA + interaction term
Fit multiple regression model to a data.frame
> ##Get data.frame
> cfseal <- read.table("cfseal.txt", header=T,
+ sep="\t")
> heart.log <- log(cfseal$heart)
> cfseal.log <- cfseal
> cfseal.log[,1] <- heart.log
> colnames(cfseal.log)[1] <- "heart.log"
> ##Fit model
> seal.lm <- lm(heart.log ~ ., data=cfseal.log)
Update models and model selection Some handy functions to know about:
new.model <- update(old.model, new.formula)
Model Selection functions available in the MASS package
drop1, dropterm
add1, addterm
step, stepAIC
Similarly,
anova(modObj, test="Chisq")
Generalized Linear Models
Linear regression models hinge on the assumption that the response variable follows a Normal distribution.
Generalized linear models are able to handle non-Normal response variables and transformations to linearity.
Logistic Regression
When faced with a binary response Y = (0,1), we use logistic regression.
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Logit
Problem 2 – Logistic Regression
Read in the anaesthetic data set, data file: anaesthetic.txt.
Covariates:
move binary numeric vector for patient movement
(1 = movement, 0 = no movement)
conc anaethestic concentration
Goal: estimate how the concentration of movement varies with increasing concentration of the anesthetic agent.
Fit the Logistic Regression Model
> anes.logit <- glm(move ~ conc, family=binomial(link=logit), data=anesthetic)
The output summary looks like this: > summary(anes.logit)
Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 6.469 2.418 2.675 0.00748 **conc -5.567 2.044 -2.724 0.00645 **
Estimates of P(Y=1) are given by: > fitted.values(anes.logit)
Estimating Log Odds Ratio
To get back the log odds ratio
> anes.logit$linear.predictors
> plot(anesthetic$conc, anes.logit$linear.predictors)
> abline(coefficients(anes.logit))
Looks like the odds of not moving increase significantly when you increase the concentration of the anesthetic agent beyond 0.8.
Problem 3 – Multiple Logistic RegressionRead in data set birthwt.txt.
low indicator of birth weight less than 2.5kg age mother's age in years lwt mother's weight in pounds at last menstrual period race mother's race (1 = white, 2 = black, 3 = other) smoke smoking status during pregnancy ptl number of previous premature labours ht history of hypertension ui presence of uterine irritability ftv number of physician visits during the first trimester bwt birth weight in grams
We fit a logistic regression using the glm function and using the binomial family.
Problem 4 - Poisson Regression
Poisson regression is often used for the analysis of count data or the calculation of rates associated with a rare event or disease.
Example: schooldata.csv.
We can fit the Poisson regression model using the glm function and the poisson family.
Survival Analysis
library(survival)
Example: aml leukemia data
Kaplan-Meier curve
fit1 <- survfit(Surv(aml$time[1:11],aml$status[1:11])~1)
summary(fit1)
plot(fit1)
Log-rank test
survdiff(Surv(time, status)~x, data=aml)