Beverly Law and students, Oregon State University Ron Neilson and MAPSS team, Pacific Northwest...
-
Upload
opal-hancock -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
0
Transcript of Beverly Law and students, Oregon State University Ron Neilson and MAPSS team, Pacific Northwest...
Anticipated Climate Change Effectsin the Pacific Northwest
Acknowledgments
• Beverly Law and students, Oregon State University• Ron Neilson and MAPSS team, Pacific
Northwest Research Station• Climate Impacts Group, University of
Washington • Chris Ringo, ecology tech team
A warming future
Northwest expected to warm 2 degrees C by the 2040s and 3.3 degrees C by the 2080s
Area burned by fire expected to double by 2040s and triple by 2080s
--Climate Impacts Group
The Oceans
Variability in el Nino-la Nina events and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) will increase, causing more intense winter storms
Short-term outlook is warmer and wetter As warming further increases, expect
increased summer drought
Snow/Rain Changes
More winter precipitation as rain Earlier spring melt means lower summer
flows 2 degrees C increase in next 20 years means
25 percent less snowpack …….a coming water crisis in the West
(Barnett et al. 2008)
Vegetation Effects
Initially growth may increase since carbon dioxide has a fertilizer effect
But with prolonged warming some areas will become more water limited, growth will decrease, and fire risk will increase
Vegetation Effects
Tree regeneration may become more difficult on lower elevation sites and better at higher elevations
Whitebark pine will be at high risk of loss due to multiple stressors
Species shifts are likely to be gradual
Climate-Informed Vegetation
Vulnerability
Climate-Induced Vegetation Shifts
Neilson, USGS Models, Veg
Synthesis
Climate-Informed Wildlife
Population Vulnerability
Species Ability to Adapt
Data source
Recall vulnerability assessment
So how do we predict future vegetation?
Proceed carefully Neilson and MAPPS group projections Look at range of possible outcomes rather
than specific future
Current Climate CGCM1
MAPSS Simulated Vegetation Distribution
Coarse-Level Physiognomic ClassificationPossible Future Woody Expansion, andCarbon Sequestration
Anticipated changes
Fire Effects
More carbon dioxide, warmer and wetter winters mean more growth and carbon accumulation
If this is followed by pronounced summer droughts, higher risk of fire
This is true Region-wide, but the change will be most pronounced in the west Cascades
Adapt to climate change by preparing for an uncertain future, not a specific one
Advice
Build planning efforts for an uncertain future, not any specific one
We are looking at various possible scenarios and using them to bracket the range of possibilities
Advice
The best climate change strategy is a rigorous , viable restoration policy to make landscapes resilient to a variety of possible futures.
We have to take climate change seriously, not because we know what the future will be, but because we don’t.
--The Economist