Better Decisions SLIDES...9. Make More Decisions “Be willing to make decisions. That’s the most...

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Making Better Decisions in Complex Times

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Karen Bowen


What Today Is About• Emotions Values & Beliefs • Decision Making Approaches • Bias • Risk


Understanding Emotion“The process of thinking requires feeling, for feelings are what let us understand all the information we cant directly comprehend. Reason without emotion is impotent.”


Beliefs & Values

• Beliefs are “Decision Making Filters”

• Values are “Decision Making Lenses”


“In a knowledge based economy, we propose that a knowledge worker’s primary deliverable is a good decision.”

How Can Decision Making Be Improved? Milkman, Chugh, Bazerman. 2008


What Is A Decision?

Source: https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is+a+decision


Common Challenges• Lack of clarity on desired outcome

• Overconfidence

• Moving too fast

• Perceptual Narrowing

• Avoidance

• Information Overload

• Information Underload

• Cognitive Bias


Complexity

CONFUSION

You are here.


How We Decide

“Truly successful decision-making relies on a balance between deliberate and instinctive

thinking.” - Malcolm Gladwell


Two Approaches

• Will research extensively • Will continue to look for new

alternatives even after suitable choices have been identified.

• Will always aim to make the best possible choice.

• Tend to mull over decisions at length. • Are often less content with their

choices after the fact.

Maximizers Satisfiers• Will research only to the extent they

feel necessary. • Will choose an option that they feel is

‘good enough’. • Tend to make decisions more quickly. • Are more content with their choices

(less concerned with alternatives they didn’t choose)

Source: Schwarz – The Paradox of Choice, Wiley, 2005.


Which Is It For You?

• What do you consider to be some of the advantages of your approach?

• What do you consider to be some of the disadvantages?


Intuitive/Rational

Adapted from: Starcke and Brand, 2011: Decision Making Under Stress: A Selective Review & Epstein, Pacini, Denes-Raj, and Heier, 1996: Individual differences in intuitive-experiential and analytical rational thinking styles.

Complete Ignorance

(not even possible outcomes are

known)

Certainty (only a single

outcome is known to result)

Risk (The outcome

probabilities are specified)

Ambiguity (The possible outcomes

are known, but their probabilities are not)

More Intuitive ExperimentalMore Intuitive / Experiential

More Rational / Analytical


Exploring the YOU in Decision Making


Cognitive BiasesA systematic error in thinking that affects decisions and judgments.

Cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality.


Bias Blindness…

“…these are not just occasional errors in judgment but rather routine mistakes, barriers to logic we stumble over time and

again, repeating patterns through generations and through the centuries. For example, it is much more common that we overestimate our knowledge than we underestimate it.”

- Rolf Dobelli


Cognitive Bias (just a few)• False Consensus Effect • Curse of Knowledge • Reactive Devaluation • IKEA Effect

• Ostrich Effect


False Consensus Effect


Curse of Knowledge


Reactive Devaluation


IKEA Effect

source: www.sketchplanations.com


Ostrich Effect


Decision Based Evidence Making

Evidence Based Decision Making


Where Does Risk Fit?


The 8 Risk Types


Risk Type & Decision Making


Risk Type in Working Population


10 Ways To Make Decisions Better


1.Take Care Of Yourself


2. Beware Decision Fatigue


3. Acknowledge The Feeling


4. Slow Down, or Even Stop


5. Delegate What You Can

Tannenbaum & Schmidt (1973)

Use of Authority by Leader

Area of Freedom by Subordinates

Leader Centered Subordinate Centered

Leader permits subordinates to function within defined limits

Leader makes and announces

decision

Leader sells

decision

Leader presents ideas and

invites questions

Leader presents tentative decision

subject to change.

Leader presents

problems, gets suggestions,

makes decision

Leader defines

limits; asks group for decision


6. Seek Support


7. Seek (Some) More Information


8. Discuss Decisions


9. Make More Decisions

“Be willing to make decisions. That’s the most important quality in a good leader. Don’t fall

victim to what I call the ‘ready-aim-aim-aim-aim’ syndrome. You must be willing to fire.”

T. Boone Pickens


10. Learn From Your Successes (and Mistakes)


LinkedIn: • Karen Bowen • Drew Bird

Email: • [email protected] • [email protected]

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Better Decisions SLIDES...9. Make More Decisions “Be willing to make decisions. That’s the most...

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