The Future ofThe Future of

Harvesting Space ResourcesHarvesting Space Resources

The World Futures Society Conference – July 2014The World Futures Society Conference – July 2014Orlando, FloridaOrlando, Florida

Kurt CallawayKurt CallawayForesight (Futures Studies) Graduate ProgramForesight (Futures Studies) Graduate Program

University of HoustonUniversity of Houston

Expected FutureExpected Future(Baseline Scenario)(Baseline Scenario)

Domain: harvesting space Domain: harvesting space resources; specifically resources; specifically material resources from material resources from Near Earth Objects Near Earth Objects (NEOs).(NEOs).

Time frame: twenty years Time frame: twenty years ((~~2033).2033).

The domain is still relatively The domain is still relatively immature.immature.

By 2033 . . .By 2033 . . .

. . . Humanity is routinely present . . . Humanity is routinely present in Earth orbit.in Earth orbit.

Using inexpensive probes, the Using inexpensive probes, the hunt for candidates had begun hunt for candidates had begun around 2015.around 2015.

Within five years, a number of Within five years, a number of possibilities found among the possibilities found among the thousands of known NEOs.thousands of known NEOs.

Swarms of robotic mining craft Swarms of robotic mining craft were dispatched to the most were dispatched to the most promising asteroids.promising asteroids.

These in turn . . .These in turn . . .

. . . returned hundreds, then . . . returned hundreds, then thousands of tons of thousands of tons of frozen water.frozen water.

The water began arriving The water began arriving back at Earth around back at Earth around 2027 – twelve years after 2027 – twelve years after the prospecting started.the prospecting started.

A long time? The investors A long time? The investors didn’t think so.didn’t think so.

It was acceptable . . .It was acceptable . . .

. . . since success meant a . . . since success meant a strong marketing position strong marketing position for the companies.for the companies.

Parallels to deep-sea drilling Parallels to deep-sea drilling and mining ventures:and mining ventures:

• large initial capital outlaylarge initial capital outlay• long project lifelong project life• robotic technology that robotic technology that

mustmust work reliably yet work reliably yet autonomously.autonomously.

Water . . .Water . . .

. . . benefited all aspects of the . . . benefited all aspects of the expanding space frontier.expanding space frontier.

Reduced the cost of many Reduced the cost of many activities:activities:

• extended tourist stays in orbitextended tourist stays in orbit• satellite rebuilding, refuelingsatellite rebuilding, refueling• orbital debris reductionorbital debris reduction• manned space stationsmanned space stations

The first Chinese manned moon The first Chinese manned moon mission in 2030 “topped off” in mission in 2030 “topped off” in Earth orbit with propellants Earth orbit with propellants cracked from asteroid water.cracked from asteroid water.

Plentiful water . . .Plentiful water . . .

. . . is the “ore.”. . . is the “ore.”

Separated into hydrogen and Separated into hydrogen and oxygen using solar power, it oxygen using solar power, it becomes a high-efficiency becomes a high-efficiency propellant.propellant.

Launch costs reduced as much Launch costs reduced as much as 90%, depending on the as 90%, depending on the mission.mission.

Operational fuel no longer needs Operational fuel no longer needs to be lifted from Earth.to be lifted from Earth.

The number of people . . .The number of people . . .

. . . working in orbit has increased . . . working in orbit has increased significantly, and now the significantly, and now the 10,000 pounds of water/annum 10,000 pounds of water/annum needed for each person is needed for each person is already there.already there.

Organizations have also found it Organizations have also found it cheaper to buy water ice cheaper to buy water ice already in orbit to use as already in orbit to use as radiation shielding.radiation shielding.

Several centimeters of water Several centimeters of water protects against solar radiation protects against solar radiation and cosmic rays.and cosmic rays.

Availability now in 2033 . . .Availability now in 2033 . . .

. . . of water may support the US . . . of water may support the US manned expedition to orbit manned expedition to orbit Mars, which might launch this Mars, which might launch this year during the first of the year during the first of the decade’s two windows.decade’s two windows.

Provisioning with asteroid water Provisioning with asteroid water will alleviate the mission’s will alleviate the mission’s launch costs.launch costs.

It will still be high, since only It will still be high, since only water and not metal is water and not metal is available so far from asteroid available so far from asteroid resources.resources.

The reduction in cost . . .The reduction in cost . . .

. . . could contribute toward . . . could contribute toward a Mars mission that a Mars mission that includes an actual landing includes an actual landing – on one of the Martian – on one of the Martian moons.moons.

A manned station on the A manned station on the moon of Deimos with moon of Deimos with tele-exploration of Mars tele-exploration of Mars would drop the overall would drop the overall cost considerably.cost considerably.

Back in 2025 . . .Back in 2025 . . .

. . . the mining organizations . . . the mining organizations shifted attention to metal-rich shifted attention to metal-rich asteroids.asteroids.

Lots of propellant was available, Lots of propellant was available, and remote mining technology and remote mining technology was improving.was improving.

Prospecting spacecraft had Prospecting spacecraft had already identified metal-already identified metal-bearing asteroids.bearing asteroids.

The companies were flush with The companies were flush with revenue from sales of depot revenue from sales of depot water and fuel.water and fuel.

The products of metal mining . . .The products of metal mining . . .

. . . haven’t made it back to Earth . . . haven’t made it back to Earth by 2033 yet.by 2033 yet.

HoweverHowever, the prospect of arriving , the prospect of arriving asteroid metals has already asteroid metals has already begun to have an economic begun to have an economic effect.effect.

Prices drop as buyers anticipate a Prices drop as buyers anticipate a vastly increased supply.vastly increased supply.

Investors flee precious metals for Investors flee precious metals for items that will maintain value: items that will maintain value: industrial metals, carbon industrial metals, carbon credits, diamonds, and sugar.credits, diamonds, and sugar.

This was not unanticipated . . .This was not unanticipated . . .

. . . Even in the 20. . . Even in the 20thth Century, Century, planners recognized new planners recognized new space resources could space resources could affect the global affect the global economy.economy.

The fall in metals prices The fall in metals prices opened the possibility of opened the possibility of new technology that was new technology that was infeasible in a world infeasible in a world where the price of rare where the price of rare metals remained high.metals remained high.

An analogy is the history . . .An analogy is the history . . .

. . . of aluminum. Once regarded . . . of aluminum. Once regarded as more precious than gold.as more precious than gold.

Only after its price dropped, did Only after its price dropped, did aluminum become a widely-aluminum become a widely-used building material and used building material and alloy component.alloy component.

The increase in rare metals will The increase in rare metals will act similarly: depressed prices act similarly: depressed prices initially, but creating much initially, but creating much greater demand within new greater demand within new products and uses.products and uses.

In summary . . .In summary . . .

. . . The expected future of . . . The expected future of space resources is one of space resources is one of enabling many aspects enabling many aspects future civilization.future civilization.

From the innovation of new From the innovation of new products no longer products no longer constrained by material constrained by material costscosts

To the more affordable To the more affordable expansion of humans’ expansion of humans’ presence and activity presence and activity beyond low earth orbit.beyond low earth orbit.

Additional DevelopmentsAdditional Developments

Since this forecast was crafted in mid-2013, Since this forecast was crafted in mid-2013, additional considerations should be additional considerations should be monitored as possible change indicators:monitored as possible change indicators:• Effect of the Outer Space TreatyEffect of the Outer Space Treaty• Efficiency of asteroid resource extractionEfficiency of asteroid resource extraction• The Elvis Equation (no, not Presley…)The Elvis Equation (no, not Presley…)

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