Best Analytics Project - csforms.org pdfs/EEA Wksp TWO Analytics.pdf · 2 Begin With the End in...

Level I Winner:Sacramento Municipal Utility District

Erik Krause, Director of Retail Product Delivery & Sales

Level II Winner: Otter Tail Power Company

Rod Jensen, Reliability Engineer

Best Analytics Project

Powering forward. Together.

Leveraging Data to Help Our

Customers Most In NeedErik Krause, Director, Retail Product Delivery and Sales

May 2018

An actual customer call…

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SMUD CONFIDENTIAL - Strategy Sensitive Materials - For Use by Authorized Persons Only

Do Not Reproduce or Distribute Without Authorization from Director, Retail Products, Delivery & Sales

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The end we have in mind:

To help our customers most in need.

The

7Of Highly Effective PeopleHABITS

- Stephen Covey

1 Be Proactive

2 Begin With the End in Mind



SMUD Assistance Programs

Rate Assistance Programs

• Reduce the bill through rate discounts

Dwelling Assistance Programs

• Reduce energy use and increase comfort

Bill Assistance Programs

• Provide direct bill payments

Education and Outreach

• Empowers with information and community support

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EAPR Discount Design: Current

Subsidy

Design

Electricity Usage

Discount

SIFC

Discount

Maximum Monthly

Discount Cap

Forecast Average EAPR

Credit per Customer

2016 44% 58% $43 $34.91 per month

2017 48% 58% $42 $36.27 per month

2018 48% 58% $42 $36.27 per month

2014-2018 Rate Design

Based on Usage and Cap

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High Burden/Multi-Family High Burden/Single Family Low Burden/Multi-Family Low Burden/Single Family

% of Households % of Subsidy

Discount Allocation Mismatch- 2014Currently:

High Burden/Multi-Family High Burden/Single Family Low Burden/Multi-Family Low Burden/Single Family

% of Households % of Subsidy

Transition to Tomorrow (conceptual only)…

TBDTBD TBD

TBD

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Despite the Discount, EAPR

Customers…

6.5x more likely to be

disconnected

Have a higher rate of entering collections

Have a significantly

higher electric bill

burden

Require additional funds from

SMUD’s EnergyHELP &

other bill assistance programs

Are we having the impact we

seek?

8SMUD CONFIDENTIAL - Strategy Sensitive Materials - For Use by Authorized Persons Only


In the News

9



• Low-income households pay more per square foot for energy than the average household.

• These families experience higher energy burdens not only because of lower incomes but also because of inefficiencies in the home.

• 10% of EAPR customers continue to have unaffordable electric bill burdens, especially those in the lowest of poverty levels

• Upcoming time-based rates could negatively impact electric bill burdens for low income customers, unless we provide targeted information, education and energy efficiency programs.

“By developing a clearer understanding of the intersection of energy costs and household demographics, stakeholders can better target investments in energy efficiency to create more

economically viable and healthy communities.” ACEEE 2016

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Energy burden and cycle of poverty



Improve sustainability and integrity of the low

income program by helping those most in

need.

Increase program offerings that align with participants’ lifestyles to address energy usage and/or their feeling of

control.

Strengthen safety net for Sacramento’s

underserved through strategic partnerships in order to positively impact

customers in a more holistic manner.

Overarching Strategy



To help our customers who are most in need

by reducing their overall electric bill burden.

Primary Objective

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A Holistic Approach

Adjust

eligibility

criteria

Energy

efficiency

Income

verification

Strategic

partnerships

Discount

redesign

In order to successfully deliver upon the overarching

strategy and lower the electric bill burden for as

many customers as possible, a combination of tactics will

need to be deployed.



Defining Electric Bill Burden

Energy Burden (all fuel sources)Fisher, Sheehan, & Colton Home Affordability Gap Survey (2014)*

Ideal Affordable Unaffordable

0 – 6% 6 – 10.9% >10.9%

Electric Bill Burden (electricity only)Ideal Affordable Unaffordable Highly Unaffordable

0 – 4.8% 4.8 – 8.7% 8.7 – 25% >25%

Converted total fuel affordability to electric only for SMUD specific analysis*

Identifying EAPR participants by their Electric Bill Burden (EBB) enables SMUD to better segment and target customers, as well as understand the potential impact of program changes (including subsidy redesign).



Analysis of Current Participants:Electric Bill Burden

** Electric bill burden for all (including EAPR) SMUD customers is 3.5%

Federal Poverty

Level % of Households

Avg. EBB w/o EAPR

Discount

Avg. EBB (current

EAPR structure)

Avg. EAPR Discount

per Customer

0 – 50% 11% 20.9% 13.2% $38

50 – 100% 36% 8.2% 5.0% $36

100 – 150% 29% 5.2% 3.2% $37

150 – 200% 24% 3.8% 2.4% $35

Total 100% 7.7% 4.6% $36

EBB=

Ideal/Affordable

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Electric Bill Burden (electricity only)Ideal Affordable Unaffordable Highly Unaffordable

0 – 4.8% 4.8 – 8.7% 8.7 – 25% >25%



Rate Change: Approved June 2016

Equal

discount

determined

by usage

• Lower EBB for lowest income

families

• Increase in discount for 0-100%

FPL

• Decrease in discount for 100-

200% FPL

Existing ImpactsFuture

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Tiered

Discount

Determined

by FPL



New EAPR Rate Structure



11.1

5.0

3.7

2.8

9.7

4.9

4.0

3.2

8.5

4.8

4.3

3.6

Energy Efficiency: Using Segmentation to Identify Targets

SMUD is targeting energy efficiency, behavioral and other load shifting programs specifically to households with an unaffordable electric bill burden.

Using data analytics, households will be segmented by:• Federal Poverty Level• Electric bill burden• Dwelling type/size• Homeowner status• Usage• Load shape

Energy efficiency investments (i.e., whole-home retrofits) for low income households can make homes more efficient than the average home, which means these investments have the potential to reduce the energy burden of a low-income household.



20 SMUD CONFIDENTIAL - Strategy Sensitive Materials - For Use by Authorized Persons Only


Rooftop Solar (in

partnership with Grid

Alternatives)

• Free solar panels

• Deep Home Retrofit (may include):

‒ Repair/replace heating,

cooling

‒ Refrigerator

replacement

‒ Other measures: attic

insulation, weather-

stripping, LEDs, etc.

Deep Home Retrofit

(may include:)

• Complete home energy

evaluation

• Repair/replace heating,

cooling

• Refrigerator replacement

• Other measures: attic

insulation, weather-

stripping, LEDs, etc.

• Energy Efficiency

Education by SMUD

House Bundle


evaluation

• A programmable “smart”

thermostat

• Advanced power strip

• Energy-efficient LED light

bulbs

• Energy Efficiency Education

by SMUD

Apartment Bundle


evaluation

• Advanced power strip

• Up to 2 fans

• Energy-efficient LED light

bulbs

• Energy Efficiency

Education by SMUD

EAPR Pilot Packages



Multifamily Projects – In flight and Finished

2017 Completed

• Salvation Army– Transitional Housing

– Weatherization retrofit for 30 units

2018 In Flight• Compassion Village

– Transitional Housing

– Tiny Homes (20) – Solar Panels• 5 Complete

• Training and education

– Weatherization retrofit

• Mutual Housing– Transformer sponsorship providing

match funding for solar electric system

– Partnership with Grid Alternatives –Provide workforce and training

– Promise Zone



SMUD Energy Store Low Income Offering

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$30 coupon

no minimum

purchase

639 customers

redeemed coupon

39% orders were

free after the

coupon$6 average

order



Ensuring a smooth transition

Formalize community

partnerships

First EAPR discount

adjustment

2017 20212018 20202019

Second EAPR discount

adjustment

Final EAPR discount

adjustment

Proactive recruitment of energy efficiency offerings to help reduce

electric bill burden

Programs continue through 2021

24 SMUD CONFIDENTIAL - Strategy Sensitive Materials - For Use by Authorized Persons Only


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Agenda

Company overview – who is Otter Tail Power???

Interruption monitoring system end of life – technology migration

Solution search

Solution selection and Itron partnership

OTP phased implementation approach Benefits and next steps

Lessons learned

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Otter tail corporation structure

Vinyltech Corporation

PVC pipe manufacturerPhoenix, AZ / 2000Steve Laskey51 employeeswww.vtpipe.com

Northern Pipe Products, Inc.

PV pipe manufacturerFargo, ND / 1995Steve Laskey91 employeeswww.northernpipe.com

T.O. Plastics, Inc.

Custom plastic parts manufacturerClearwater, MN / 2001Mike Vallafskey151 employeeswww.toplastics.com

BTD Manufacturing, Inc.

Metal fabricatorDetroit Lakes, MN / 1995Paul Gintner829 employeeswww.btdmfg.com

Otter Tail Power Company

Electric UtilityFergus Falls, MN / 1907Tim Rogelstad747 FT employeeswww.otpco.com

ELECTRIC MANUFACTURING PLASTICS

VARISTAR

IOU: Nasdaq – OTTR2017: $850M net

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Quick Facts• 70,000 square-mile service

area

• More than 5,800 miles of transmission lines

• Over 600 communities served

• 132,200+ customers

• Approximately 800 employees (including part-time)

• About 800 MW of owned generating capability

• About 245 MW wind

Average 220 customers/community!!!

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OTP Demographics Summary:

• Large land mass• Many small communities• Small customer density• Very rural, agricultural• Tri-state

OTP’s legacy Interruption Monitoring System

• After 14 years it has met it’s end of life• Hardware no longer manufactured

• Operates on commercial wireless 2G platform

• OTP measures reliability at the feeder level• Due to demographics, it is a good approximation

• Lots of exposure – transmission and sub transmission

• OTP desired a replacement solution that would:• Provide analytic tools that proactively improve restoration efforts

• Integrate with our GIS

• Provide a platform allowing future expansion and growth

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Replacement Solution Search and Requirements

Primary Objective: Provide accurate interruption data for indices’ calculations as required by

regulatory entitiesFlexible to meet future reporting requirements

Secondary Objective: System hardening and restoration improvementsProvide system analytics for optimized operationsIdentification of worst performing line sectionsInterruption by cause analysis, 80/20 pareto processPrioritize future maintenance and capital expendituresInterruption alarms/notifications to appropriate responsible partyVegetation management data

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Replacement Solution Search

After an exhaustive search, OTP decided to partner with Itron to provide a new interruption monitoring system utilizing a solution based on AMI technology…

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Reasons/Benefits for Selecting AMI Solution AMI is the Pathway to Industry Transformation

This solution provides OTP with AMI experience

Provides a DA platform for the future

Ease of installation

Existing GIS integration

Itron provides complete managed servicesAllows OTP to focus on its core competenciesNo need to focus on managing IT systems

Itron solution met all OTP’s requirements +Indices’ calculationsInterruption/voltage alarming 2.5 beta Storm NormalizationInterruption by cause analysisProvides analytic data to optimize our operationsPlus provided a platform to expand and grow

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Phased ApproachOTP (currently) measures reliability at the feeder level

Bellwether

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Outage Detection – Bellwether AMIWhat do we get?

» Interruption Monitoring System with strategically placed AMI meters

• One or more meters per phase per Feeder Section

• Non-AMI service points (customers) assigned to Circuit Phase

• Dashboard display with current outage status or historic data

• Email/text interruption notifications to utility personnel

• Outage detail communications via web services

» Benefits

• Alternative to SCADA or OMS which fits our demographics

• Inexpensive startup and operation

• Scalable with additional meters

• Additional meters increases granularity for both interruption and voltage analytics

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OTP - Phased Approach

2018 completion

350 feeders

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Additional Near-Term Benefits

Once the basic platform is set, additional meters can be

deployed downstream from the original bellwethers

Downstream of sectionalizing equipmentTrunk line reclosersProblem lateral circuitsEvery fused lateral circuitEnd of lines for voltage profiling analytics

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Additional Deployment – outage analysis

Feeder

A

A

A

Section 1

T1

A

Feeder

A

A

A

A

A

A

Section 2

Section 1

Feeder

A

A

A

A

A

A

A

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

1 Feeder Section 2 Feeder Sections 3 Feeder Sections

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Voltage Analytics

AMI locations measure voltage on three phasesHigh or low Voltage exception alarming near real-time

Historical voltage for loading analysis

Future AMI additions provide end-of-line analysisVoltage profiling

Additional AMI meters synergisticSupports both voltage and interruption analytics

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Voltage analysis provides additional interruption detection granularity

» Every outage bellwether provides voltage data – usually closer to feeder trunk

» Every voltage bellwether provides outage data for redundancy and restoration validation – usually closer to feeder/lateral endpoints

» Voltage coverage needs drive better outage analytic performance

» Outage coverage needs drive better voltage analytic performance

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Additional IMS Capabilities

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Series1

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Lessons Learned…

• GIS added tasks and workload

• Meter shop added tasks, new technology, and workload

• Legacy system process change for meter read personnel

• Bellwether meter install location identification (Field Lesson)

• Get ready to introduce about three dozen new acronyms into your daily conversations…

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Benefits and Next Steps

We are just getting started…

Implementation of this project will…Introduce OTP to AMI technology

Meet our reporting requirements going forward

Provide system analytics

Improve our restoration efforts

Most importantly…

PROVIDE A TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM FOR THE FUTURE

Level I Winner:Sacramento Municipal Utility District

Erik Krause, Director of Retail Product Delivery & Sales

Level II Winner: Otter Tail Power Company

Rod Jensen, Reliability Engineer

Best Analytics Project

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