BAS I C BASIC Impacts and Adaptation for Energy and Infrastructure Manmohan Kapshe Maulana Azad...
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B A S I C
B A S I C
Impacts and Adaptation for Energy and Infrastructure
Manmohan KapsheMaulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India
International Climate Change Conference, October 19, 2005 Johannesburg, South Africa
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Presentation Sequence
Why Energy and Infrastructure?Special Characteristics of Energy and
InfrastructureMethodologyResultsMajor findings and conclusionsRecommendations and future work
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Why Energy and Infrastructure? Energy and Infrastructure are essential for economic
development These are man made long-life assets investment is crucial to support a higher level of
industrial growth These systems are designed to tolerate a reasonable
level of variability but climate change can affect both average conditions and the probability of extreme events
Damages occur primarily because of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity
Economic growth in India demands energy and development of its infrastructure
Huge investments are planned for these sectors
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Special Characteristics of Energy and Infrastructure Impact are more directly associated with climatic extremes rather than averages.
Possibility of abrupt climate changes not anticipated by normal response planning
Substantively different for relatively developed, industrialized regions vs. less developed regions.
Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of higher economic damages in developed / industrialized areas but higher human damages in less-developed areas.
Economically significant. However, not generally considered to be heavily affected by climate change.
Sensitivity to climatic variability and change is relatively lower because of a high capacity to adapt in response to changes in climate.
Especially vulnerable are informal settlements within urban areas, which tend to be built on hazardous sites and to be susceptible to floods, landslides, and other climate-related disasters.
Coastal Settlements and industry show a higher vulnerability.
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Civil Buildings
Bridges
Slope Cutting
Embankment
Tunnel
Forest Cover
Air QualityFlora/ fauna
Landerosion
Coast. Env.
Effect of project on environment, Short term impacts are prominent
Environmental Effects
Project Components
Forcing Variables
Conventional Impact Matrix
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Reverse Impact Matrix
Dependent Variables
Forcing Variables Environmental Variables Project Components
Environmental Variables
Projects Components
2 4
3 1
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Konkan Railway
The 760 Km long Konkan Railway on the Western coastal ghats of India is an engineering marvel with 179 main and 1819 minor bridges, 92 tunnels (covering 12% of the total route) and over 1,000 cuttings (224 deeper than 12 meters). The longest tunnel is 6.5 Km long and the longest bridge is over 2 Km. The pillars of the tallest viaduct bridge are more than 64 meters high, taller than Qutab Minar.
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Konkan Railway: Climate Change ImpactsClimatic Parameter Impact Parameter Intervening Parameter Impact on KRC
Temperature Increase
High evaporation rate Stability and Strength of the building materials
Buildings gets weakened More and frequent repair and maintenance
Surface and ground water loss Crop productivity in the region may be affected
Agricultural fright traffic
Need for Air-conditioning Passenger traffic may shift to Air conditioned class
Affects efficiency, carrying capacity and composition.
Rainfall Increase
Ground and surface water level change
Flooding and water logging, Erosion reduces quality of land cover
Buildings affected, structural damages may take place. Increased maintenance and other related costs
Improved water availability in the region
Agricultural production Changes in agricultural freight traffic
Humidity increase Uncomfortable climatic conditions, Vegetation growth along the track
Passenger traffic, affected, increased maintenance cost
Sea Level Change
Land erosion Tracks tunnels and bridges may be affected
Increased maintenance,
Flooding Land stability, and land slides Damage to infrastructure,Reconstruction and relocation
Water logging Delays, risk increase
Extreme Events
Cyclone and high velocity winds and storms
Damage to buildings, communication lines etc
Disruption of services, repair and reconstruction costs
Cloud bursts Land erosion, floods, and land slides Extensive damage to infrastructure, High cost of repair and reconstruction
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Konkan Railway: Impact Analysis
Dep
end
ent
vari
able
s
Tem
pera
ture
Rai
nfal
l
Sea
lev
el r
ise
Ext
rem
e ev
ents
Wat
er lo
ggin
g
Veg
etat
ion
grow
th
Lan
d sl
ide
Saf
ety/
Eff
icie
ncy
Mai
nten
ance
Tra
ffic
vol
ume
Forcing Variables
Temperature L M L -- L -- -- -- L
Rainfall L -- M M M H L L M
Sea level rise -- -- -- M L M L -- L
Extreme events -- L -- M -- M L -- M
Water logging -- -- -- -- -- L L -- M
Vegetation growth L L -- -- -- L -- L --
Land slide -- -- -- -- M L M L H
Safety/Efficiency -- -- -- -- L -- L M M
Maintenance -- -- -- -- M L H H M
Traffic volume -- -- -- -- -- -- -- L M
E
nvir
onm
enta
l V
aria
bles
Proj
ect
Com
pone
nts
Environmental Variables Project Components
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
India: Observed and Simulated Rainfall
Precipitation scenario (2050s, CCSR/NIES model, Japan) 1 100 200 300 (mm/month)
J AN FEB MAR
AP R MAY J UN
J UL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
J AN FEB MAR
AP R MAY J UN
J UL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
Precipitation scenario (2100, HadCM model, IITM Pune, India)
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Konkan Railway: Impacts and Adaptation
Presently 20% of repair and maintenance expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to climatic reasons.
An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide. Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed of trains was reduced from 120 Km/h to 75 Km/h.
Present vulnerable regions in the northern zone are shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity.
Identification of the vulnerable spots and installation of “Raksha Dhaga”.
Adaptation measures should also consider non technological measures
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Climate Change Impact on Energy
Direct Impacts Space cooling and heating in residential, commercial
and industrial buildings Air-conditioning in transport vehicles Time of use and cooling load
Indirect Impacts Increased water requirement for irrigation Increased residential water requirement Water availability
Supply Side Impacts Hydroelectricity potential Activities of petroleum companies
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Scenario Drivers and Model Parameters(ANSWER-MARKAL)
Scenario Key Drivers Implication on Critical parameters
Climate Change Impact on Energy
Sensitivity of various sectors, change in demand, and direct and indirect linkages.
Demand ( ), technology efficiency ( )
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Observed and Simulated Mean Annual Temp.
Temperature scenarios (2100, IITM Pune, India)
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100Years
TW
h
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100Year
GW
Capacity for additional demand: 13 GW in 2100, i.e. 1.5% of reference case
Electricity demand increased by 64 TWh in 2100
Energy and electricity demand rise from building, irrigation and transport
Energy mix is unaltered.
Climate Change Impact on Energy
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Climate Change Impact on Emissions
02468
10121416
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100Years
Mill
ion
Ton
In 2100, carbon emissions increase by 13.5 million ton, i.e. 1% rise over reference case
Emissions increase in power
and transport sectors
Cumulative increase 710 MT
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Probability and VariabilityIncreasing mean and variability of the number of days with heavy rainfall will adversely affect the infrastructure, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken.
A. With increase in the mean, the probability of receiving heavy and concentrated rainfall increases resulting in increased threat to infrastructure
B. Increase in variability may cause extremely high concentration of rainfall. It may also result in many new locations getting high rainfall, and many existing locations with heavy rainfall getting more frequent and severe rainfall.
C. Simultaneous increase in mean and variability will make the system highly vulnerable as this will result in high number of days with heavy rainfall, scattered in time and space.
A. Increase in mean
More number of days with >200
mm rainfall
Very high number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Less number of days with >200
mm rainfall
Light and spread-over rain
Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with
> 200mm rainfall
Present Climate
Future Climate
Pro
bab
ili t
y o f
O
ccu r
ren c
e
B. Increase in variance
More number of days with >200
mm rainfall Very high
number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Less number of days with >200
mm rainfall Very less number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Present Climate
Future Climate
Pro
bab
ili t
y o f
O
ccu r
ren c
e
Light and spread-over rain
Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with
> 200mm rainfall C. Increase in mean and variance
More number of days with >200
mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Less number of days with >200
mm rainfall
Present Climate
Future Climate P
roba
bil
i ty
o f
Occ
u rre
n ce
Light and spread-over rain
Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with
> 200mm rainfall
A. Increase in mean
More number of days with >200
mm rainfall
Very high number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Less number of days with >200
mm rainfall
Light and spread-over rain
Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with
> 200mm rainfall
Present Climate
Future Climate
Pro
bab
ili t
y o f
O
ccu r
ren c
e
B. Increase in variance
More number of days with >200
mm rainfall Very high
number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Less number of days with >200
mm rainfall Very less number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Present Climate
Future Climate
Pro
bab
ili t
y o f
O
ccu r
ren c
e
Light and spread-over rain
Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with
> 200mm rainfall C. Increase in mean and variance
More number of days with >200
mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Less number of days with >200
mm rainfall
Present Climate
Future Climate P
roba
bil
i ty
o f
Occ
u rre
n ce
Light and spread-over rain
Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with
> 200mm rainfall
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Infrastructure Maintenance Costs
Long-life assets commissioned now will have higher failure rates after a century when they become old. Climate change shall also exacerbate in later part of the 21st century. Therefore, impact probability and costs on the infrastructure would increase significantly in later years.
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Rep
air
an
d M
ain
ten
an
ce C
ost
s
Cost Curve Under Climate Change
Conventional Bath-Tub Curve
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Findings and Conclusions Long lived assets having low autonomous adaptive capacity will be
vulnerable to long-term environmental changes in the later half of the century, depending on location.
Impact of environmental change becomes important only in long term. Therefore, it is most often ignored in short-term analysis. Long term projects should carry out this analysis.
Many studies for emission assessment but very few for Impacts Non technological measures are also important for effective
implementation
Environmental impact studies should include impact of long-term environment change on project parameters and resources planning (e.g. energy, water)
Macro-micro / Global-local linkageE.g. Building code, Insurance
Integrated institutional design for policy formulation and implementation
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Findings and Conclusions
Two important insights need for awareness building among the concerned people developing good quality databases
further studies are needed which would require Preparation of a catalogue of historic extreme events,
assessing the damages and providing the loss estimates Detailed GIS covers with topographic, vegetation and
geological details showing the major infrastructure systems and components
Sensitivity assessment of the infrastructure components with respect to various forcing climate parameters
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Energy and Infrastructure: Adaptation Strategies
Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related events
Contingency planning and disaster preparedness Changes in financial mechanisms to increase resiliency Relocation and industrial restructuring Planning for likely increase in demands Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning Adaptation to be associated with marginal adjustments to
changes in climatic parameters Attention to the security of infrastructure Risk financing and risk mitigation
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Recommendations
Incorporation of future climate extremes in the project design parameters in the immediate-term
Improved operational and maintenance practices in the near-term
Improved climate predictions and creation of insurance markets in the long-term
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Scope for Future Work Establishing the parameters for the reverse link matrix and
identification of the cost structure. Estimating risks associated with Extreme events with the
help of Sectoral case studies Identification of forcing variables and values of thresholds Linking of scenarios to critical parameters Development of a model and GIS-based computer algorithm
for climate change impact studies Detailed regional climate variable projections Adaptation issues of climate change impacts: technology,
community response, innovations and insurance Financing adaptation research and activities Integrated impact assessment studies
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C
Thank You.