Whatever happened to that Barack

Obama?

Anthony Painter Oxford University Labour

Club25th October 2012@anthonypainter

Looking back at 2008

• Favourable context: foreign policies failures (notwithstanding surge), Lehman, Palin but...

• The campaign: Dean '04, Move On, community organising and civil rights movements, the new organisers ----> a new civic corps.

• Structural change in US society- from an emerging Republican majority (Kevin Phillips) to an emerging Democratic Majority (Teixeira/Judis). Ideopolises, Hispanics, millennials, also some geographical shift towards working class expresses an economic rather than cultural interest - Macomb County, Michigan (Kerry lost by 16k, OB wins 36k).

Some people got carried away

The hope and (moderate) changey thing – post election

• Ditches the movement for change- OFA. Civic corps vision dead.

• Gets on with governance. The shock of prose after poetry.

• Agenda clear but hidden behind visionary veneer.

President Obama - the record

• A constitution built for Obama's populated by McConnells

• On the domestic front - significant reform:

• ARRA - stimulus (Detroit bail out, green tech, science, R+D, CCs/schools/Pell Grants/AOTC, infrastructure), race to the top, Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, D-F reforms, Affordable Care Act.

• Social rights- Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell repeal, fair pay, support for single-sex marriage, contraception coverage in ACA.

• Failure on immigration, climate change with exception of higher fuel efficiency standards and long-term fiscal rebalancing (Simpson-Bowles) but....those pesky Republicans.

• Nation-building!

And overseas....

• Mixed....

• Better and healthier bilateral relations, the dismemberment of AQ Central, troops out of Iraq, withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia (what can we agree on?), Libya, slow start on Arab Spring but then support, building support in Asia Pacific.

• BUT.....

• Middle East, Iran, predators, Guantanamo Bay, predators drones- long term cost and moral, legal, political questions?, AQ affiliates - Yemen, Algeria, Mali, Somalia, New regimes in Arab countries.

• A clear strategy, steady and, careful judgment, pursues all alternatives, but....the world's a complicated place.

Candidate 2012

• A strong President in trying times.

• The normalisation of Barack Obama.

• Ohio 08 v Ohio 12 – movement v machine, inspiration v narrow-casting/micro-targeting, professionalisation v amateur enthusiasm.

• '08 campaign lives on here and there, eg. Nevada, but no more than that.

• The Republicans- the desperate Romney living in his father's shadow.

• Emerging Democratic majority still in Obama’s favour....

2012 change - demographic undercurrents

• Minority electorate up 3%, non-college white down 3%, college white up 0.2%

• Ohio +1 ethic minority vote (EM), -3% non-college whites (NCW); Co +2 EM, -4% NCW; NV +4% EM, -5% NCW.

• Romney leading Obama amongst white men- 60-34 (McCain was +16%), Obama 70% amongst Latinos.

• And Rust Belt lean Obama post-bailout....?

The battleground

Obama can still win without Ohio….

The second term

• The clue is in Budget 2012...nation rebuilding....literally

• Mix of tax increases for the wealthy and spending cuts across the board on a ratio of 1:2.5.

• Many of the cuts come in healthcare expenditure reductions.

• Despite this, it contains ambitious plans for job creation in the short term, investment in schools and community colleges, a major increase in spending on science, innovation and tax credits for manufacturing, green tech, half a trillion dollars’ worth of investment in surface transportation, and a National Infrastructure Bank as well.

• ‘Buffett rule’ named after corporate investor Warren Buffett who has argued that those earning over $1m should pay at least 30 per cent of their income in tax.

• It eliminates tax breaks for oil, gas and coal companies and imposes a financial responsibility fee on Wall Street banks.

And overseas...

• Iran, Israel, Syria

• Pakistan

• Afghanistan withdrawal

• AQ and its affiliates

• Managing relations with China

• If anything MORE challenging second term.

Lessons for the centre-left

• Invest despite austerity. Build institutions of economic progress cf US and UK.

• Fiscal discipline a must.

• Funded social programmes (ACA/Pell Reform) - childcare, social care - rather than large-scale redistribution.

• Fair contributions from the top.

• Pragmatic internationalism.

• Oh, and the movement for change thing....that’s important.

Final thoughts

• Obama will win.

• He'll deserve to as he has been one of the best post-FDR Presidents.

• His original movement and his governance agenda suggest a new model for the left in Europe.

• Nation-building left.

• Oh, and a prediction.....