back On Track Bullet Briefs - Assiniboia Downs · BACK ON TRACK With below-normal ... little...

TWO CHANCES TO GET RICH TODAY FOR 20-CENTS• Gulfstream Rainbow 6: $464,000 • Golden Gate Golden 6: $236,000

BACK ON TRACKWith below-normal temperatures hopefully behind us, clocker Sheldon Riskin begins timing workouts as the main track opens. Some 230 horses are now on the grounds with many more to come after Fonner Park and Turf Paradise meets end in early May.

Bullet briefs . . .• New Assiniboia Racing Club buys first horse• Are you getting your share of weekly betting bonuses?• Love a horse? Better have a “plan B” (See opinions vs rules)• Derby prep race contest: Roberts blanks, leaves three standing• Final Kentucky Derby prep race goes Saturday in Arkansas• Woodbine transitions to Tapeta seamlessly• Northlands gets reprieve: season extended to October

ROBERTS BLANKS; SOMEONE ELSE WILL WIN WAGER: He was a leader for weeks but perennial ASD contest winner Jim Roberts put himself out of the running to win a $100 win/place wager on the Kentucky Derby by blanking on all three of his picks in last Saturday’s three derby prep races: the Wood, the Blue Grass and the Santa Anita Derby. None of his picks finished in the top three positions. That means, with just the Arkansas Derby left this Saturday, only three entrants can win: Brian Norris (with 27 points), Bob Madhosingh (24 points) and Jim Cretney (23 points). Good luck to each of them! See leaderboard here.

STILL ENTER! DERBY MUGS AT STAKE! Even if you can’t win the derby wager, still enter the contest on the Arkansas Derby for a final draw for a set of two prized sculpted Kentucky Derby mugs! Congrats to last week’s three mug winners: R. W. Martinson, Bob Madhosingh and George Moehring who was celebrating his 70th birthday!

ASSINIBOIA RACING CLUB UPDATE

The nail-biting fun begins: Club of 39 buys its first race horse

So, exciting (some may say “anxious”) times begin for the 39 horse owners who contributed $500 apiece for shares (one owner bought two shares) in a brand new stable called the Assiniboia Racing Club. More than half have never owned a horse.

John Field, the HBPA director who’s coordinating the club, tells The Insider the group has now claimed a 4-year-old gelding, Smed, for $5,000 U.S. The club did so Sunday from the third race at Oaklawn with the help of the club’s trainer, Tanya Lindsay, and former ASD top-percentage trainer Rob Atras, both of whom had been searching for many weeks for a worthwhile claim on a limited budget.

of 7Horse Racing - Assiniboia Downs - Simulcast Racing, VLTs, Dining, Feel The Rush!

5/3/2016http://www.assiniboiadowns.com/the-insider-archives-print.cfm?ID=573

Smed is a Kentucky-bred by Divine Park out of Skipping Queen and has a record of 12-1-1-1 with earnings of $22,677 U.S. He had broken his maiden in a $10,000 claiming race last November at Churchill Downs, going gate-to-wire in a 1/16 mile test. In the race he was claimed from on Sunday, he finished third as the favourite.

Smed will obviously be fit and ready when the he comes to the Downs. The first logical race for him is a $10,000 claimer for non-winners of two races lifetime scheduled for Saturday, May 21. The purse is $9,200. Take a deep breath, new horse owners, that’s more than a month away.

YOU NAMED ME WHAT? Inkey Mooey. Let me guess. The owners or breeders of this 4-year-old filly racing in Washington let a kindergarten class name her. Then the teacher took the whole class to the races to listen to the announcer call the name and the kids giggled uncontrollably all the way home. Hey, it’s a shrewd way to introduce kids to horse racing!

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HANDICAPPING

Your opinion could be your

WORST ENEMY!So what’s the solution?



If your opinions about horses are bang-on all the time, you don’t need to read any further. Congratulations and invest all your winnings wisely!

If you’re still with me, let’s agree together that our opinions can often stand in the way of consistent success playing the races. Plainly put, our opinions are often wrong.

So what do we do? We rely less on “opinions” and more on “rules.” Rules take the subjectivity out of playing some horses. Love a horse or hate a horse, you simply play it because of the “rule.”

This has become such a persistent theme in my thinking lately, I’ve added this to Saturday’s “I won big” play. You can now pick up a sheet in the Race Book Saturday afternoons outlining the group’s pick-4, pick-5 or pick-6 plays with an ”R” beside the rule horse. And, if you’re interested, ask me why the horse is a rule or come early (10:15 a.m. Saturday on the Clubhouse plaza) where I’ll be happy to describe a rule before the “I won big” workshop begins at 10:30 a.m.

How important can rules be? Last Thursday, the horses that finished first, second, third and fourth in the superfecta were the top four added-up rule horses – and that super paid $1,600 for 20-cents. Ask John Whitehill.

And, as Larry Liebrecht, a recent 14th place Vegas tournament finisher will tell you, he used a 10/1 rule horse (also the “added-up numbers” rule) in an earlier tournament. It wasn’t whether he liked the horse or not, it was a rule horse at decent odds so he played it and it won.

Here are “rule” horses:--A speed horse dropping in class. (This was my first-ever $1,000 wager in the early 1990s) --A horse cutting back to a sprint after showing speed in a route race--A horse with much the highest pace number or highest speed number (in the Equibase program)--In maiden claiming races, horses with the lowest added-up numbers (add where the horse finished in his last race with his position at the first call in his previous race). This is huge.--On the turf, a horse that closes the quickest, using the standard of :24 seconds for a one mile race, :30 seconds for a 1 1/16 mile race; :36 seconds for a 1 1/8 mile race--On the turf, which horse has raced for the highest purse?--For first-time starters, look for youngsters whose sire has produced other youngsters that have won first time out. Look for the highest percentages.

There are more—which are discussed at the “I won big” sessions. A lot of you are already aware of these; for others, these may fill in some gaps. What will be the “rule” horses on this Saturday’s “I won big” tickets?

And now there’s just one . . .



Skye Chernetz

THE WEEK THAT WASSKYE CHERNETZ TO RIDE AT ASD: Former Woodbine jockey Skye Chernetz, 22, is returning to her roots: Manitoba. She has enlisted with the ASD jockey colony. Chernetz is the daughter of Bonnie Eshelman who rode at the Downs some years ago and became agent for three-time leading rider, Alan Cuthbertson. Skye was born in Manitoba. She has been riding mainly at Woodbine where her mother has been her agent and her overall record in four years of riding is 104 wins in 1,333 starts. Her horses earned $4.2 million. She won a Sovereign award for top apprentice rider in 2013.

SEAMLESS TRANSITION FROM POLY TO TAPETA:Nothing was out of the ordinary at Woodbine last Saturday and Sunday as the track began its 2016 meet on the new Tapeta all-weather surface that replaced Polytrack. Favourites dominated the cards except for an 11/1 horse on Saturday and 41/1 Zenzizi in the fifth race Sunday (that set up a superfecta that paid $39,107, the whole pool, for 20-cents). ASD bettors played the new surface conservatively, wagering four per cent less than on last year’s Woodbine opening weekend. Overall wagering on simulcast races those two days at the Downs increased by almost 15 per cent.



Andy SerlingGuesses wrong

NEW ROLLING DOUBLES HAVE LOW TAKE-OUT: Woodbine has introduced rolling doubles with a 15 per cent takeout rate making it a high-value wager because, essentially, that means a 7.5 per cent takeout on each horse compared to betting each horse to win.

ASD TRACK REMAINED CLOSED BUT WOODBINE RACED: There was little difference between Toronto and Winnipeg last weekend; both were in the grip of almost identical unseasonably cold temperatures and windchill except Woodbine was racing and the opening of the Downs’ main track was held in abeyance until yesterday. It appears to be mainly uphill now – at both venues. Get out the shorts!

AQUEDUCT FORMFUL; I WON BIG GETS 50% RETURN: Formful horses in Aqueduct’s pick-6 and a tricky Aqueduct/ Keeneland pick-4 resulted in last Saturday’s “I won big” group getting back about half its outlay, primarily on a superfecta play that was strong on “rule” horses (see above). Rob MacLennan’s key in the pick-6 DID win but so did a favourite horse in the Wood Memorial which was mistakenly dismissed because of the view of a usually astute handicapper (see below).

THIS SATURDAY: Since ASD players have been hitting well at Tampa, let’s return to the pick-5 there as a group this Saturday. Those who wish to do so also should take a peak at the Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream to determine whether a couple key horses could make that bet a play. Saturday,10:30 a.m. Clubhouse plaza. Indicate your “rule” horses and your “opinion” horses. Everyone welcome.

NORTHLANDS’ LIFE EXTENDED TO OCTOBER: Northlands Park race track, originally scheduled to close forever after Aug. 27, has been given an extended life: To Thanksgiving Day, Oct. 10. That means the Edmonton track will race primarily Wed-Fri-Sat, similar to the Downs, starting Friday, May 6 through to October.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS: “The favourite I’m going to try to beat (in the Wood Memorial) is Outwork,” said highly-regarded Aqueduct handicapper Andy Serling in his online report, taking four other horses. Wrong! His view cost the “I won big” the pick-6 but at least Outwork was taken in pick-4s simply because it fit a rule – the horse was a “bounce” factor because he had won big two races back. A “rule” beat out an “opinion.” Who knew?

DON’T MOVE TO CANADA! That’s what the Daily Racing Form says in an ad on its online home page. The ad suggests to U.S. citizens that there are “better options for your post-election escape plans” than moving to Canada. Essentially, the ad wants readers to sign up for a newsletter promoting overseas opportunities—presumably in case Donald Trump is elected President.

JETS END SEASON HONOURABLY WITH BIGG CUP: The Winnipeg Jets peaked too late (winning their final four games) but that should leave them feeling pretty good about themselves heading into next season. And, hey, their late-season push wins them the Bigg Cup (best NHL team in western Canada)! Final standings: (1) Winnipeg 78 points (2) Calgary 77 (3) Vancouver 75 (4) Edmonton 70

Where are they now?by Rob MacLennan

Charlie’s Spider runs big; a Brown exactor Saturday?

Did you play him? This column gave you heads up last week. Charlie Smith’s 4-year-old Spider's Alibi rallied to run a good second at 27/1 in the $50,000 Premier Stakes against a very tough field in Lone Star’s opener last Thursday.

Two days later, Smith and his go-to jockey Rohan Singh were up at Fonner Park in Nebraska running in the $15,000 Pepsi Stakes with the very quick 3-year-old filly, Pecos. The odds-on favourite won but was disqualified and placed second for a bump in the stretch. One thing about Charlie, he certainly knows were to spot his horses.

Also at Fonner, Ardell Sayler was active at the claiming box on Sunday after losing a horse earlier in the card.



Jared BrownPoised to score

Guess who I like in Arkansas Derby?

Meanwhile, at Turf Paradise, Don Schnell scored a couple seconds with the 11-year-old I Am Awesome and the maiden 3-year-old Papow. Watch for his 7-year-old Runaway Cal on the grass Sunday.

The Jared Brown barn seems poised for a big weekend: Touch the Sunand Two Bucks to Win could provide an exactor finish of 8-year-olds in the 4th race Saturday while the newly claimed 3-year-old Media Meleeinvades for the barn in the 3rd race Sunday. Watch out, too, for 4-year-old Believe Too in the 5th on Sunday and the 6-year-old mare Elle's the Boss on Monday.

OFF-TRACKS CLOUD DERBY TRAIL: Outwork ran a gutsy race in the Wood Memorial but barely defeated a maiden, Brody's Cause made a sharp rally in the Blue Grass but the race came back with very slow times and Exaggerator proved he's a great slop horse with a huge kick to win the Santa Anita Derby.

ARKANSAS DERBY: I like Cupid, the obvious horse, but also respect Dazzling Gem who is still improving.

"TIPS 'N' TRICKS"with Marshall Posner

Q. I’m new to horse racing and HPIbet – are there any online tutorials that teach me how to bet?

A. Yes, the new HPIbet system has a Learning Centre located in the footer of the website (view image here). You can access a variety of content including videos and articles on How To Read A Program, How To Handicap & How To Bet. There’s also a comprehensive Racing Glossary that can be equally helpful to both newbies and veteran horseplayers (view image here).

Simply click on any of the links in the Learning Centre and then select the video you want to watch (view image here).

There’s also an excellent tutorial video on how to use HPIbet called Take The Tour that can be found in the footer under the Support section. If you’re new to online betting, I highly recommend watching this short demo.

Got a question for Marshall? Email [email protected]

HISTORY ON THE HOOF: The best of BobDid you know . . . that Gerry Hart, the Downs photographer for almost 50 years, collaborated with then Free Press photographer Dave Bonner, to take the iconic, widely-seen total eclipse of the sun photo on Feb. 26, 1979? Read “A total eclipse of the (Gerry) Hart? No.” here.

Will “rule” horses save your bacon whenyour “opinion” horses finish up the track?



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