Bacha Edmar Bonelli Regis (Coincident Growth Collapses Brazil and Mexico Since the Early 1980s)

7/24/2019 Bacha Edmar Bonelli Regis (Coincident Growth Collapses Brazil and Mexico Since the Early 1980s)

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Academic articles began asking “Why isn’t Mexico rich?” (Hanson 2010) 4 ';")#*=

the infamous dictum that “Brazil is the land of ."' @H.H(' —and always will be”.

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8#$->9I ."#$ 9$$);#9.#)* 9*8 ."'* H$' 9 8';)/-)$#.#)* 8'(#&'8 @()/ ."' $9&#*=$`

#*&'$./'*. #8'*.#.I .) $.H8I ."' ;)/-)*'*.$ )@ ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U ;"9*='$K

B#=H('$ _ 9*8 6 $")C ."' ('>9.#)*$"#-$ 0'.C''* ."' EQ? =()C." (9.'$ ]8)..'8

>#*'$^ 9*8 ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.'$ ]$)>#8 >#*'$^ ('$-';.#&'>I #* :(9O#> 9*8 M'\#;)3

@()/ 1c65 .) 451_K QH(#*= ."' E)>8'* A='3 ."' 9&'(9=' I'9(>I ;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.'

C9$ 2Kcf #* :(9O#> 9*8 2K5f #* M'\#;)K R* ;)*$)*9*;' C#." ."#$ (9-#8 =()C." #* ."'

;9-#.9> $.);U3 9&'(9=' EQ? =()C." (9.'$ )@ ."#$ -'(#)8 C'(' dK_f 9*8 bK2f3 ('$-';.#&'>I

#* :(9O#> 9*8 M'\#;)K

R* :(9O#>3 ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.' $.9(.'8 9 8'$;'*. 9@.'( ('9;"#*= 9 -'9U #*

1cd6K !"' 8()- 0';9/' $"9(-'( 9@.'( 1c213 9*8 9 ."()H=" C9$ ('9;"'8 )*>I #* 1cc4K R*M'\#;)3 ."' ;"9*=' )@ ('=#/' C9$ /H;" @9$.'(3 9$ #. .))U )*>I )*' I'9( — 1c2J — @)( ."'

;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.' .) $#*U @()/ 9 -'9U .) 9 *'9( ."()H="3 @()/ C"#;" #. (';)&'('8

)*>I /#>8>I #* $H0$'VH'*. I'9($K R* ."' P'9( ,.9=*9.#)* '(93 ."' 9&'(9=' ;9-#.9> $.);U

=()C." (9.' $.))8 9. )*>I 4Kcf #* :(9O#> 9*8 4K2f #* M'\#;)K D)(('$-)*8#*=>I3 9&'(9='

EQ? =()C." (9.'$ 8'$;'*8'8 .) 4Kbf #* :(9O#> 9*8 4K4f #* M'\#;)K

ONKM>B T1 2>?PNJ — "?RN=?J ;=E@H (K’) ?IF )&/ (Y’) K>ED=X >?=B;] 78^:[S:7T Y_Z

,)H(;'+ P9.#)*9> A;;)H*.$3 X#$.)(#;9> ,.9.#$.#;$ 9*8 authors’ estimatesK

N* 9 I'9(>I 09$#$3 )H.-H. =()C." C9$ (9."'( /)(' &)>9.#>' ."9* ;9-#.9> =()C." 9$

;9* 0' $''* #* B#=H('$ _ 9*8 6K A$ 9 ('$H>. ."' ;)(('>9.#)*$ 0'.C''* ."' ;9-#.9> 9*8 )H.-H.

=()C." $'(#'$ C'(' *). -9(.#;H>9(>I "#="+ 5K62 #* :(9O#> 9*8 5Kb2 #* M'\#;)K !"'

;)(('>9.#)* 0'.C''* ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.'$ C9$ 9 /H;" "#="'( 5K2J3 C"#;"

"#=">#=".$ ."' U#*$"#- )@ ."'$' ;)H*.(#'$’ -)$.`ii`RR /9;()';)*)/#; "#$.)(#'$K N* ."'

)."'( "9*83 ."' ;)(('>9.#)* 0'.C''* ."' EQ? =()C." (9.'$ C9$ 9 /H;" $/9>>'( 5KJdK

J Brazil’s net capital stock estimates are preliminary. Mexico’s data were kindly provided by André Hof /9*3@()/ [PS7DLA. Mexico’s 2014 figure is our own estimate, based on the average depreciation rateimplicitly observed in Hofman’s figure for 2013 and INEGI’s fixed gross investment estimate in 2014.

`bf

`_f

`4f

5f

4f

_f

bf

2f

15f

14f

1_f

1 c 6 5

1 c 6 J

1 c 6 b

1 c 6 c

1 c b 4

1 c b 6

1 c b 2

1 c d 1

1 c d _

1 c d d

1 c 2 5

1 c 2 J

1 c 2 b

1 c 2 c

1 c c 4

1 c c 6

1 c c 2

4 5 5 1

4 5 5 _

4 5 5 d

4 5 1 5

4 5 1 J

gj lj



(

ONKM>B ̂ 1 4BQN@E — "?RN=?J ;=E@H (K’) ?IF )&/ (Y’) K>ED=X >?=B;] 78^:[S:7T Y_Z

,)H(;'$+ 7$.98m$.#;9$ X#$.n(#;9$ 8' M'\#;)3 AK X)@/9*’s estimates and RP7ER’s internet siteK

P'\. C' H$' 9* '\-('$$#)* 8'(#&'8 #* :9;"9 9*8 :)*'>># ]@)(.";)/#*=^ .)

8';)/-)$' ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.'3 9*8 #8'*.#@I @)( '9;" )@ ."' -'(#)8$ #* !90>' 1

."' ()>'$ )@ $9&#*=$3 ."' ('>9.#&' -(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*.3 9*8 ."' ;9-#.9>`.)`)H.-H. (9.#) #* ."'

'&)>H.#)* )@ ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U$K

!"' 8';)/-)$#.#)* @)( ."' =()C." (9.' )@ ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U ;9* 0' '9$#>I 8'(#&'8

@()/ ."' #*&'$./'*. 9*8 $9&#*=$ #8'*.#.I #* ;H(('*. -(#;'$3 9*8 #$ '\-('$$'8 9$+_

gj o $]1S-^& – δ ]1^

where: K’ is the growth rate of the capital stock, s is the sum of the domestic with the@)('#=* $9&#*=$ (9.' ]C"#;" C' 8'*)/#*9.' $#/->I 9$ ."' $9&#*=$ (9.'^3 - #$ ."' ('>9.#&'

-(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*. ](9.#) )@ ."' #/->#;#. -(#;' 8'@>9.)( )@ =()$$ ;9-#.9> @)(/9.#)* .) ."'

#/->#;#. -(#;' 8'@>9.)( )@ EQ?^3 & #$ ."' 9==('=9.' )H.-H. .) ;9-#.9> $.);U ratio, and δ is

."' 8'-(';#9.#)* (9.'K

R* ."' @)>>)C#ng, we’ll treat the variables in the right`"9*8 $#8' )@ 'VH9.#)* ]1^ 9$

-9(9/'.'($3 ."' ;"9*='$ #* ."' &9>H'$ )@ C"#;" >'98 .) ;"9*='$ #* ."' =()C." (9.' )@ ."'

capital stock. We’re conscious that this is only a first approximation that ignores the

9H.)*)/ous determinants of investment, such a profit rates, firms’ expectations about

@H.H(' 8'/9*83 ;('8#. 9&9#>90#>#.I3 /9;()';)*)/#; &)>9.#>#.I '.;K i#." ."#$ ;9&'9.3 C' ")-'.) $")C ."9. ."' '\'(;#$'$ .) @)>>)C C#>> "'>- .) #>>H/#*9.' #/-)(.9*. 9$-';.$ )@ ."'

=()C." '\-'(#'*;'$ )@ :(9O#> 9*8 M'\#;)K

7VH9.#)* ]1^ $")C$ ."9. ."' #/-9;. )@ ."' $9&#*=$ (9.' )* ."' =()C." (9.' )@ ."'

;9-#.9> $.);U 8'-'*8$ )* ."' ('>9.#&' -(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*. 9*8 )* ."' )H.-H.`.)`;9-#.9>

_ i' $.9(. @()/ ."' P9.#)*9> A;;)H*.$ #8'*.#.I+ ? R R o ,3 C"'(' ?R #$ ."' #/->#;#. -(#;' 8'@>9.)( )@ =()$$;9-#.9> @)(/9.#)*3 R #$ =()$$ ('9> #*&'$./'*.3 9*8 , #$ .).9> $9&#*=$ #* ;H(('*. -(#;'$K !) $#/->#@I3 #*&'*.)(I;"9*='$ 9(' *'..'8 )H. )@ $9&#*=$K B#($. 8#&#8' 0)." $#8'$ 0I ? Rg ]C"'(' g #$ ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U^3 ."'* 8#&#8'9*8 /H>.#->I ."' (#=".`"9*8 $#8' 0I ? l l ]C"'(' ? l #$ ."' #/->#;#. -(#;' 8'@>9.)( )@ EQ? 9*8 l #$ ('9> EQ?^3

then subtract the capital stock depreciation rate (δ) from both sides, and rearrange to obtain equation (1), where K’ = I/K – δ3 $o,S? l l3 9*8 - o ?RS? l K ,'' :9;"9 9*8 :)*'>># ]@)(.";)/#*=^ @)( ."' 8'(#&9.#)* )@ 9$>#=".>I /)(' '>90)(9.' &'($#)* )@ ."#$ 'VH9.#)* ."9. 9>>)C$ @)( 9 &9(I#*= 8'=('' )@ ;9-#.9> $.);U H.#>#O9.#)*K

`bf

`_f

`4f

5f

4f

_f

bf

2f

15f

14f

1 c 6 5

1 c 6 4

1 c 6 _

1 c 6 b

1 c 6 2

1 c b 5

1 c b 4

1 c b _

1 c b b

1 c b 2

1 c d 5

1 c d 4

1 c d _

1 c d b

1 c d 2

1 c 2 5

1 c 2 4

1 c 2 _

1 c 2 b

1 c 2 2

1 c c 5

1 c c 4

1 c c _

1 c c b

1 c c 2

4 5 5 5

4 5 5 4

4 5 5 _

4 5 5 b

4 5 5 2

4 5 1 5

4 5 1 4

4 5 1 _

gj lj



)

(9.#)K !"' "#="'( #$ ."' ('>9.#&' -(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*. ]."' >)C'( #$ 1S-^ 9*8 ."' >)C'( #$ ."'

)H.-H.`.)`;9-#.9> (9.#)3 ."' >)C'( C#>> 0' ."' =()C." (9.' )@ ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U @)( 9 =#&'*

$9&#*=$ (9.'K !"' 8'-(';#9.#)* (9.' 9>$) *''8$ .) 0' .9U'* #*.) 9;;)H*. — '\;'-. ."9.3 9$

#. &9(#'$ >#..>' #* ."' $'(#'$ C' H$'3 #. 8)'$ *). ;)*.(#0H.' .) '\->9#* ."' ;"9*='$ #* ;9-#.9>

9;;H/H>9.#)* ."()H=" .#/'K6

!90>'$ 4 9*8 J $")C ."' @#=H('$ @)( 'VH9.#)* ]1^ ('$-';.#&'>I @)( :(9O#> 9*8

M'\#;) #* ."' -'(#)8$ #8'*.#@#'8 #* !90>' 1K

(?<JB S1 2>?PNJ — "?RN=?J 0=E@H )>ED=X &B@ELRE;N=NEI] 0BJB@=BF /B>NEF;

:<AkRL ?'(#)8$ gj $ & - δ*

?)$. ii`RR E)>8'* A=' 1c65`1c25 2K2f 1cK_f 5K65b 5Kd2_ JKbf

L)$. Q';98' 1c21`1cc4 JKJf 45Kcf 5KJ6d 1K55c _K1f

<'@)(/$ C#." ,H0-9( E()C." 1ccJ`455J 4K1f 12KJf 5KJ64 1K51J _K4f

D"#*9 ,I*8()/' 455_`4515 4K2f 12K6f 5KJ24 1K54_ _K1f

Q9I 9@.'( ."' E('9. <';'$$#)* 4511`451_ _K5f 45KJf 5KJ2J 5KcdJ _K5f?)$.`1c25 P'9( ,.9=*9.#)* 1c21`451_ 4Kcf 1cK6f 5KJb_ 1K55c _K1f

]p^ <'$#8H9>

Source: Authors’ ;9>;H>9.#)*$W $'' .'\.K

(?<JB a1 4BQN@E — "?RN=?J 0=E@H )>ED=X &B@ELRE;N=NEI] 0BJB@=BF /B>NEF;

M7hRDN b ?'(#)8$ gj $ & -p δ **

?)$. ii`RR E)>8'* A=' 1c65`1c21 2K5f 1bK_f 5Kb6b 5Kdc6 6Kbf

L)$. Q';98' 1c24`1ccJ JKJf 1dKJf 5K_d5 5Kc16 6Kbf

<'@)(/$ C#." ,H0-9( E()C." 1cc_`4551 JKdf 1dK6f 5K__J 5K2_4 6K6f

D"#*9 ,I*8()/' 4554`4515 JK6f 44K4f 5K_15 5Kcbd bK5fQ9I 9@.'( ."' E('9. <';'$$#)* 4511`451_ 4K2f 41K6f 5KJc1 5Kc1c bKJf

?)$.`1c25 P'9( ,.9=*9.#)* 1c24`451_ JK_f 12K6f 5K_J2 5K22d 6K2f

p <'$#8H9>W pp Q'-(';#9.#)* #/->#;#. #* X)@/9*j$ '$.#/9.'$

Source: Authors’ calculations; see text.

!"' /)$. )H.$.9*8#*= ('$H>. #* !90>'$ 4 9*8 J #$ ."9. ."' $"9(- @9>> )@ ."' ;9-#.9>

$.);U =()C." (9.'$ 0'.C''* ."' E)>8'* A=' 9*8 ."' P'9( ,.9=*9.#)* -'(#)8 #$ *).

9;;)H*.'8 @)( 0I ."' '&)>H.#)* )@ ."' $9&#*=$ (9.'$K R* ."' ."#(.I`$)/' I'9($ 0'@)(' ."'

'9(>I 1c25$3 ."' 9&'(9=' $9&#*=$ (9.' C9$ 1cK_f #* :(9O#> 9*8 1bK_f #* M'\#;)K B()/ ."'

'9(>I 1c25$ .) 451_3 ."' 9&'(9=' $9&#*=$ (9.' C9$ #* @9;. 9 0#. "#="'( 9. 1cK6f #* :(9O#> 9*812K6f #* M'\#;)K !"#$ 8#8 *). -('&'*. ."' 9&'(9=' =()C." (9.' )@ ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U .) $#*U

6 Mexico’s depreciation rates, as calculated from Hofman’s capital data series, turned out to be substantiallyhigher than Brazil’s, estimated by us as a residual (but which are in line with the values computed byLH;#>'*' M)(9*8#3 @()/ ."' B>H/#*'*$' B'8'(9> [*#&'($#.I ][BB^3 #* 9 @)(.";)/#*= -9-'(^K i' C'('H*90>' .) 8'.';. ."' $)H(;'$ )@ ."'$' 8#@@'('*;'$Kb A 8#(';. ;9>;H>9.#)* )@ - I#'>8$ ('$H>.$ )*>I $>#=".>I 8#@@'('*. @()/ .")$' #* !90>' JK !"H$3 @)( #*$.9*;'3 -#* 1c65`21 '$.#/9.'8 8#(';.>I @()/ ."' ?7PP i)(>8 !90>'$ #$ 'VH9> .) 5K2JJ C#." 1c25o1K5K R. 'VH9>$ 5Kc_J#* 1c24`cJ 9*8 5Kc15 #* 1c24`451_K !"'('@)('3 ('>9.#&' ;"9*='$ 9(' $#/#>9( H*8'( 0)." 9>.'(*9.#&'$K !"'

savings rate in current prices (s) for Mexico was estimated by the authors from Hofman’s investment rate in1c25 -(#;'$ /H>.#->#'8 0I ."' ('>9.#&' -(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*. =))8$ #* ."' ?7PP !90>'$3 C#." 1c25 $'. 'VH9> .)1K5K



*

0'.C''* ."'$' .C) >)*= -'(#)8$ @()/ 2Kcf .) 4Kcf #* :(9O#> 9*8 @()/ 2K5f .) JK_f #*

M'\#;)K

!"' /9#* ;H>-(#. ]0I @9( ."' /9#* )*' #* ."' ;9$' )@ M'\#;)^ @)( ."' $"9(- @9>> #*

."' ;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.' C9$ 9 8''- ('8H;.#)* #* ."' )H.-H. .̀)`;9-#.9> (9.#)K !"#$

$''/$ .) "9&' 0''* -9(.>I 9 .';"*)>)=#;9> -"'*)/'*)*3 9$ +,-.- ';)*)/#'$ 0';9/' /)('

;)/->'\ 9*8 H(09*#O'8 ."9* #* ."' -9$.K A $';.)(`;)/-)$#.#)* '@@';. /9I 9>$) "9&' "98 9

()>'3 9$ '\'/->#@#'8 0I ."' #*;('9$#*= $"9(' )@ $'(&#;'$ 9. ."' '\-'*$' )@ =))8$`-()8H;#*=

$';.)($K R*&'$./'*. /#$9>>);9.#)* #$ 9 @H(."'( ('9$)* @)( ."' 8';>#*' #* ."' )H.-H.`.)`

;9-#.9> (9.#), as we’ll discuss below. :H.3 -9(.#;H>9(>I #* ."' ;9$' )@ M'\#;)3 ."' 8()- #*

."' ;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.' C9$ .)) $H88'* .) 0' '\->9#*'8 $#/->I 0I $H;" $.(H;.H(9>

@9;.)($K

A--9('*.>I3 ;)$.`#*;('9$#*= 9*8 8'/9*8`8'-('$$#*= @9;.)($ 9$$);#9.'8 .) ."' '9(>I

1c25$ 8'0. ;(#$#$ @)(;'8 9 $"9(- ('8H;.#)* #* 9==('=9.' )H.-H.3 ."H$ .H(*#*= #8>' -9(. )@

."' -(''\#$.'*. ;9-#.9> $.);UK d R*#.#9>>I3 ."' 8()- #* @)('#=* $9&#*=$ 9>$) '\'(.'8 9

8'-('$$#*= '@@';. )* ;9-#.9> 9;;H/H>9.#)*3 9$ 9 ;)/-'*$9.)(I #*;('9$' #* 8)/'$.#; $9&#*=$8#8 *). #//'8#9.'>I );;H(K ,H0$'VH'*.>I3 8)/'$.#; $9&#*=$ (';)&'('83 0H. ."#$ "9--'*'8

#* 9 ;)*.'\. ]-9(.#;H>9(>I #* ."' ;9$' )@ :(9O#>^ #* C"#;" 9* #*'@@#;#'*. #/-)(. $H0$.#.H.#)*

)@ ;9-#.9> =))8$ ;)*.(#0H.'8 *). )*>I .) 8'-('$$ ."' )H.-H.`.)`;9-#.9> (9.#) 0H.3 /)('

#/-)(.9*.>I .) #*;('9$' $H0$.9*.#9>>I ."' ('>9.#&' -(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*.K2

M)(' ;9-#.9> #*.'*$#&' -()8H;.#)* 9*8 "#="'( ('>9.#&' #*&'$./'*. -(#;'$ 0';9/'

-'(/9*'*. @'9.H('$ of Mexico’s and Brazil’s economies $#*;' ."' '9(>I 1c25$K !)='."'(

."'I eH$.#@I ."' 8()- #* ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.' .) $H;" >)C'( >'&'>$ #* $-#.' )@ "#="'(

$9&#*=$ (9.'$K :(9O#>3 0'#*= 9 /)(' ;>)$'8 ';)*)/I3 $H@@'('8 @()/ 9 $"9(-'( (#$' #* ."'

('>9.#&' -(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*.K Mexico’s opening up $''/$ .) "9&' 0''* 90>' .) ")>8 09;U

."' (#$' #* ."' -(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*. 0H. 8#8 *). -('&'*. ."' )H.-H.`.)`;9-#.9> (9.#) @()/

@9>>#*= '&'* /)(' 8''->I ."9* #* :(9O#>K

L'&I ]45523 -K 41J^ 9(=H'$ ."9. ."' $);#9> -()=(9/$ ;('9.'8 9@.'( ."' 1c25$ .#>.'8

."' #*&'$./'*. (9.#) #* M'\#;) .)C9(8$ ."' #*@)(/9> $';.)( 9*8 ."#$ (9#$'8 ."'

#*;('/'*.9> ;9-#.9>`.)`)H.-H. (9.#)K <)$ ]451J3 D"K 4^ 9=(''$ ."9. #*@)(/9>#.I '\-9*8'8

$)/'C"9. $#*;' ."' 1c25$ 0H. 9(=H'$ ."9. ."#$ C9$ 9 ;)*$'VH'*;' *). 9 ;9H$' )@ ."' >)C

growth rate of the capital stock. We’ll have more to say about ."' ()>' )@ #*@)(/9>#.I #*

$H0$';.#)* 6K6 0'>)CK

i' *)C .H(* .) ."' ;)*$'VH'*;'$ )@ ."' '&)>H.#)* )@ ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U .)='."'(

C#." ."9. )@ .).9> @9;.)( -()8H;.#&#.I ]!B?^ @)( ."' =()C." (9.' )@ )H.-H. -'( C)(U'(K !"'@);H$ )* )H.-H. -'( C)(U'( #$ eH$.#@#'8 0';9H$' ;"9*='$ #* >90)( @)(;' =()C." C'(' 9

/#*)( @9;.)( #* ."' EQ? ;)>>9-$'$ #* ."' .C) ;)H*.(#'$K R* ."' E)>8'* A='3 >90)( =('C 9.

*'9(>I $#/#>9( (9.'$ #* :(9O#> 9*8 M'\#;)3 ('$-';.#&'>I3 9. JK1f 9*8 JK4f -'( I'9(K R* ."'

P'9( ,.9=*9.#)* 9='3 I'9(>I >90)( @)(;' =()C." C9$ >'$$3 0H. $.#>> 9 ('$-';.90>' 4K4f #*

:(9O#> 9*8 9* '&'* "#="'( 4K6f #* M'\#;)K !"'$' ('>9.#&'>I $/9>> ;"9*='$ #* >90)( @)(;'

=()C." (9.'$ -'(/#. H$ .) 8(9C 9..'*.#)* .) ."' =()C." )@ 9==('=9.' )H.-H. -'( >90)(3 9$

'\->9#*'8 0I ;9-#.9> 8''-'*#*= 9*8 !B?K

d A $#/->' /'9$H(' 09$'8 )* 9;.H9> &'($H$ .('*8 EQ? $H=='$.$ 9 (9."'( >9(=' 8()- ]2f^ #* Mexico’s output

=9- 0'.C''* 1c21 9*8 1c2JK2 :9;"9 9*8 :)*'>># ]@)(.";)/#*=^ 8#$;H$$ ."' ;9H$'$ )@ ."' (#$' #* ."' ('>9.#&' -(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*. 9*8 )@ #.$()>' #* ."' ;)*.(9;.#)* )@ ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U =()C." (9.' #* :(9O#>K



!/

T /B>NEFNP?=NEI \E> =XB K>ED=X E\ EM=RM= RB> DE>HB>

!"#$ $';.#)* -('$'*.$ 9 $.9*89(8 =()C." 8';)/-)$#.#)* '\'(;#$'3 H$#*= 9* 9==('=9.'

D)00`Q)H=>9$ -()8H;.#)* @H*;.#)* C#." ;9-#.9> 9*8 >90)( 9$ -()8H;.#)* @9;.)($K NH(

#*.'('$. #$ #* ."' '&)>H.#)* )@ EQ? -'( C)(U'(K !"' >)=`>#*'9(#O9.#)* )@ 9 @H*;.#)* )@ ."#$

.I-' ('$H>.$ #*+

Ij o αk' + TFP’ ]4^

where y’ is the growth rate of GDP per worker, α is the capital share in GDP, k’ is the

=()C." (9.' )@ ;9-#.9> per worker, and TFP’ is ."' =()C." (9.' )@ .).9> @9;.)( -()8H;.#&#.IK

!90>'$ _ 9*8 6 0'>)C ('$-';.#&'>I @)( :(9O#> 9*8 M'\#;) $")C ."' 0'"9&#)( )@ ."'

&9(#90>'$ #* ."#$ @)(/H>9 @)( ."' -'(#)8$ #8'*.#@#'8 #* !90>' 1K B)( ;)/->'.'*'$$3 ."' .90>'$

also show the values of labor force growth (L’) in these periods. In 0)." ;)H*.(#'$3 C' $'.

α = 0.45K B)( :(9O#>3 ."#$ &9>H' #$ #* >#*' C#." )H( -('&#)H$ C)(U ]:)*'>># 9*8 :9;"93 4514^9*8 @)( M'\#;) C#." 9 @)(.";)/#*= -()8H;.#&#.I $.H8I )@ ."' gL7M`L9.#* A/'(#;9*

-()e';.Kc

!90>'$ _ 9*8 6 $H//9(#O' ."' '\.(9)(8#*9(I >)$$ )@ 8I*9/#$/ )@ ."' .C)

';)*)/#'$ @()/ ."' E)>8'* A=' .) ."' P'9( ,.9=*9.#)* '(9K :'.C''* ."'$' .C) >)*=

-'(#)8$3 9&'(9=' =()C." )@ )H.-H. -'( C)(U'( @'>> @()/ _K4f .) 5K_f #* :(9O#> 9*8 @()/

JK_f .) `5K4f #* M'\#;)K15

(?<JB T1 2>?PNJ — &B@ELRE;N=NEI E\ -?<E> />EFM@=NWN=C )>ED=X0BJB@=BF /B>NEF; Y_ R`?`Z

?'(#)8$ Ij Lj 9>@9pUj !B?j

1c61`1c25 _K4f JK1f 4K6f 1Kdf

1c21`1cc4 `5K2f 4K4f 5Kdf `1K_f

1ccJ`455J 5KJf 4K6f `5K4f 5K_f

455_`4515 4K4f 5K6f 5K4f 4K5f

4511`451_ 1K1f 1K5f 1KJf `5K4f

1c21`451_ 5K_f 4K4f 5K_f 5K5f


(?<JB ^1 4BQN@E — &B@ELRE;N=NEI E\ -?<E> />EFM@=NWN=C )>ED=X

0BJB@=BF /B>NEF; Y_ R`?`Z?'(#)8$ Ij Lj 9>@9pUj !B?j

1c61`1c21 JK_f JK4f 4K1f 1KJf

1c24`1ccJ `1Kdf JK_f 5K1f `1K2f

1cc_`4551 5Kdf 4KJf 5Kbf 5K1f

4554`4515 5KJf 1Kbf 5Kcf `5K6f

4511`451_ 1K5f 1Kcf 5K_f 5Kbf

1c24`451_ `5K4f 4K6f 5K6f `5Kdf


c D@K X)@/9* '. 9> ]@)(.";)/#*=^K15 P'#."'( >90)( *)( ;9-#.9> C'(' ;)((';.'8 @)( H.#>#O9.#)* #* ."'$' '\'(;#$'$K



!!

D)*.(9;.#)*$ #* ."' =()C." (9.'$ )@ ;9-#.9> -'( C)(U'( 9*8 )@ !B? 8#&#8' ."'

('$-)*$#0#>#.I @)( ."#$ ;)>>9-$'3 C#." ."' @)(/'( 0'#*= ('>9.#&'>I /)(' #/-)(.9*. #* :(9O#>

9*8 ."' >9..'( /)(' -()/#*'*. #* M'\#;)K !"#$ -()-)$#.#)* #$ &9>#8 @)( ."' P'9(

,.9=*9.#)* '(9 9$ 9 C")>'K R* #.3 )H.-H. -'( C)(U'( =()C." C9$ >'$$ ."9* O'() #* M'\#;)3

#* $-#.' )@ 9 "#="'( ;)*.(#0H.#)* )@ ;9-#.9> .) =()C." ."9* #* :(9O#>3 0';9H$' ."' ,)>)C

('$#8H9> 0';9/' &'(I *'=9.#&' #* M'\#;) 8H(#*= ."#$ '(9K

<)>'$ )@ ;9-#.9> 9*8 !B? 9(' *)*'."'>'$$ ('&'($'8 #* ."' .C) ;)H*.(#'$ #* ."'

/)(' (';'*. Q9I A@.'( ."' E('9. <';'$$#)* -"9$' ]4511`1_^K R* ."#$ -'(#)83 =()C." )@

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9;;H/H>9.#)* (';)&'('8 C"#>' !B? =()C." $9*UK R* M'\#;)3 )* ."' ;)*.(9(I3 ;9-#.9>

9;;H/H>9.#)* 8()--'8 C"#>' !B? =()C." #/-()&'8K A -)$$#0>' ('9$)* #$ ."9. M'\#;)

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.(98#.#)*9> >)C -()8H;.#&#.I3 0H. #$ $H@@'(#*= @()/ 9 >)C -()-'*$#.I .) #*&'$. 9$$);#9.'8

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'*8 )@ ."' ;)//)8#.I 0))/ 9*8 =)&'(*/'*. /'88>#*= C#." ('$)H(;' 9>>);9.#)* >'8 !B?

=()C." .) 0';)/' *'=9.#&'3 '&'* 9$ ;9-#.9> 9;;H/H>9.#)* (';)&'('8 @()/ ."' >)C >'&'>$

-('&9#>#*= $#*;' ."' 1c25$K

!"#$ #*.'(-('.9.#)* *''8$ .) 0' $VH9('8 )@@ C#." ."' "#=" =()C." (9.' )@ !B? #* :(9O#>

#* ."' D"#*9 ,I*8()/' -'(#)8 ]455_`4515^K L#$0)9 9*8 ?'$$)9 ]451J^ 9(=H' ."9. ."#$ C9$

9 8'@'(('8 ;)*$'VH'*;' )@ ."' ';)*)/#; ('@)(/$ )@ ."' 1cc5$ 9*8 '9(>I 4555$K X)C'&'(3

."' /9e)( ;)//)8#.I 0))/ @()/ C"#;" :(9O#> 0'*'@#..'8 /9I 9>$) "9&' 0))$.'8 !B?

=()C." #* ."#$ -'(#)8K !"' -)$#.#&' 9$$);#9.#)* 0'.C''* ."' .'(/$ )@ .(98' ]!)!^ 9*8

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&9(#90>'K11

:)." #* M'\#;) 9*8 #* :(9O#>3 ."' -)$#.#&' ;)(('>9.#)*$ 0'.C''* !B? 9*8 ."' !)! #*

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/'9$H('8 #* ."' >'@.`"9*8 9\#$ 9*8 ."' !)! #* ."' (#=".`"9*8 9\#$K B#=H(' b 8#$->9I$ ."'

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.) 1c223 @)>>)C'8 0I *'9( $.9=*9.#)* #* ."' ('/9#*#*= )@ ."' -'(#)8K B#=H(' d $")C$ ."'

/)(' ;)/->'\ '&)>H.#)* )@ !B? 9*8 ."' !)! #* :(9O#>3 C"'('3 9@.'( 9* #*#.#9> e)#*. 8()-3

."'$' &9(#90>'$ '\-'(#'*;' H-$ 9*8 8)C*$ H*.#> 455J3 C"'* ."'I 0)." =9#* $H0$.9*.#9>

.(9;.#)*3 .) $.9(. @9>>#*= )*>I 9@.'( 4511K !"' ;)(('>9.#)* ;)'@@#;#'*.$ 0'.C''* !B? 9*8 ."' !)! #* ."' 1c25`451_ -'(#)8 9(' 5K2c #* M'\#;) 9*8 5Kd_ #* :(9O#>K

11 i' 8#$;H$$ ."' .'(/$ )@ .(98' '@@';. 0'>)CK N* ."' -();I;>#;9>#.I )@ /'9$H('8 !B?3 0'$#8'$ X9>> ]1cc5^$'' :9$H 9*8 B'(*9>8 ]4551^3 :9$H3 B'(*9>8 9*8 g#/09>> ]455b^3 9*8 :9#3 <m)$`<H>>3 9*8 ,.)('$>'..'* ]4514^K



!#

ONKM>B b1 (O/ ?IF (E( JBWBJ; NI 4BQN@E] 789:[S:7T Y789: c7`:Z

Source: Authors’ calculations (see text)

ONKM>B d1 (O/ ?IF (E( JBWBJ; NI 2>?PNJ] 789:[S:7T Y789: c7`:Z

Source: Authors’ calculations (see text)

E)#*= 0'I)*8 $#/->' ;)(('>9.#)*$ ]9*8 H$#*= ."' &9(#90>'$’ (9.'$ )@ ;"9*=' #*$.'98 )@

."'#( >'&'>$ #* )(8'( .) 9&)#8 -)$$#0>' H*#. ()). -()0>'/$^3 ."' NL, ('=('$$#)*$ #* !90>' b

;)*@#(/ ."9. #* 0)." ;)H*.(#'$ -9(. )@ ."' ;"9*='$ #* !B? 8H(#*= ."' *'9( $.9=*9.#)*

-'(#)8 ;9* 0' '\->9#*'8 0I ."' &9=9(#'$ )@ ."' .'(/$ )@ .(98' 9*8 )@ ."' ';)*)/#; ;I;>'$K

!"' .90>' $")C$ ."' ('$H>.$ )@ ('=('$$#)*$ )@ ."' (9.' )@ ;"9*=' )@ !B? )* ."' (9.' )@

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8'=('' )@ H.#>#O9.#)* )@ ."' ;9-#.9> $.);U )( #* ."' )H.-H. =9- ]#* ."' ;9$' )@ :(9O#>^3 9*8

;"9*='$ #* ."' H*'/->)I/'*. (9.' )( ."' )H.-H. =9- ]#* ."' ;9$' )@ M'\#;)^K14

14 ,)H(;'$ @)( ."' 89.9 #* !90>' b C'(' 9$ follows: (i) TFP’ for Brazil and Mexico, see Tables 4 and 5; (ii) !)! @)( :(9O#>3 R?7AQA!A ] CCCK#-'989.9K;)/K0( ^W ]###^ !)! @)( M'\#;)3 :9*;) 8' M'\#;)] CCCK09*;)8'/'\#;)K=)&K/\ ^W ]#&^ [.#>#O9.#)* =9- @)( :(9O#>3 :)*'>># 9*8 :9;"9 ]4514^3 H-89.'8 0I ."'

9H.")($W ]&^ )H.-H. =9- @)( :(9O#>3 X? @#>.'( '\.(9;.'8 @()/ ."' *9.#)*9> 9;;)H*.$W ]&#^ H*'/->)I/'*. (9.'@)( M'\#;)3 RMB ] CCCK#/@K)(= ^W ]&##^ )H.-H. =9- @)( M'\#;)3 X? @#>.'( '\.(9;.'8 @()/ ."' *9.#)*9> 9;;)H*.$0I G'$Y$ E9(O9 9*8 G)Z) ?'8() <'$'*8'3 @()/ R.9H`::AK

53_6

5366

53b6

53d6

5326

53c6

1356

53d6

532

5326

53c

53c6

1

1356

1 c 2 5

1 c 2 4

1 c 2 _

1 c 2 b

1 c 2 2

1 c c 5

1 c c 4

1 c c _

1 c c b

1 c c 2

4 5 5 5

4 5 5 4

4 5 5 _

4 5 5 b

4 5 5 2

4 5 1 5

4 5 1 4

4 5 1 _

!B? M7h !)! M7h ]("$^

/0)

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!0#

!0%

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532

5326

53c

53c6

1

1356

1 c 2 5

1 c 2 4

1 c 2 _

1 c 2 b

1 c 2 2

1 c c 5

1 c c 4

1 c c _

1 c c b

1 c c 2

4 5 5 5

4 5 5 4

4 5 5 _

4 5 5 b

4 5 5 2

4 5 1 5

4 5 1 4

4 5 1 _

!B? :<A !)! :<A ]("$^

http://www.ipeadata.com.br/



http://www.bancodemexico.gov.mx/



http://www.imf.org/

http://www.imf.org/

http://www.imf.org/

http://www.imf.org/





!$

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$H(-(#$'3 0';9H$' C' C'(' *). 90>' .) 98eH$. ."' ;9-#.9> 9*8 >90)( #*-H.$ @)( ."' #*.'*$#.I

)@ ."'#( H.#>#O9.#)*K i"'* )H.-H. ;)*.(9;.$ 9*8 >90)(`")H($ 9*8 ;9-#.9> H.#>#O9.#)* 9('

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]0';9H$' )H.-H. #$ >)C'( 9*8 )H( /'9$H('8 #*-H.$ ('/9#* ;)*$.9*.3 '\;'-. @)( ."'

-)$$#0>' ('8H;.#)* #* '*=9='8 >90)('($^K MH.9.#$ /H.9*8#3 ."' $9/' #$ &9>#8 @)( 9 -)$#.#&'

8'/9*8 $");UK R* $H//9(I3 ."' )0$'(&'8 -();I;>#;9>#.I of TFP’ in Table 6 has a lot to do

C#." 8'@#;#'*;#'$ #* )H( /'9$H('/'*. )@ >90)( 9*8 ;9-#.9> #*-H.$. Thus, we can’t infer

@()/ ."#$ -();I;>#;9>#.I ."9. )."'( @9;.)($ $H;" 9$ ';)*)/#'$ )@ $;9>' 9(' 9. ->9IK

(?<JB b1 #-0 *BK>B;;NEI *B;MJ=; \E> *?=B E\ "X?IKB E\ (E=?J O?@=E> />EFM@=NWN=C:(9O#> 9*8 M'\#;)3 1c21`451_ ]J_ )0$'(&9.#)*$^

Q'-K T9(K Q'-K T9(K Q'-KT9(K Q'-K T9(K

T9(#90>' !B?j :(9O#>

]1^ !B?j :(9O#>

]4^ !B?j M'\#;)

]J^ !B?j M'\#;)

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D)*$.9*. `535dJ 535c2 `53415 `53__c

].`(9.#)^ ]`534b^ ]`53_4^ ]`53db^ ]`4312^

!'(/$ )@ .(98' (9.' )@ ;"9*=' 53525 535b6 531dd 535c4

].`(9.#)^ ]`13c_^ ]`13cJ^ ]`_3bJ^ ]`43c6^

[.#>#O9.#)* =9- ;"9*=' ]:(9O#>^ `53c16

].`(9.#)^ ]`63bb^

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].`(9.#)^ ]`d325^

[*'/->)I/'*. (9.' ;"9*=' ]M'\^ `13b5_

].`(9.#)^ ]`6365^

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].`(9.#)^ ]`23cb^

A8eH$.'8 <4 53bd1 53dd6 53bbc 53212

,.9*89(8 '(()( )@ ('=('$$#)* 13b5 13JJ 1362 1312

Qi 13b2 1341 13c5 13b1B`(9.#) J_3b2 6d3b2 J_34c d6354

Sources: Authors’ calculatio*$ ]$'' .'\.^

R* )(8'( .) '\->9#* ."' -)$#.#&' ('>9.#)* )@ /'9$H('8 !B? C#." ."' !)!3 9 (';'*.

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!$ !"' 9;;'-.'8 C#$8)/ #$ ."9. !)! $");U$ ('-('$'*. 9 /9e)( $)H(;' )@ 0H$#*'$$ ;I;>'$ #* '/'(=#*= 9*8

-))( ;)H*.(#'$K B)( $)/' ('>'&9*. >#.'(9.H(' 9*8 9 ;(#.#;9> &#'C3 $'' ,;"/#8.`E()"q 9*8 [(0' ]4516^K :H.g'")' 9*8 <H"> ]4552^ 9(=H' ."9. ."' -)$#.#&' 9$$);#9.#)* )@ !)! ;"9*='$ C#." !B? =()C." )0$'(&'8 #*."' "#$.)(#;9> 89.9 ;9**). 0' 8'(#&'8 #* 9 /)8'> C#." -'(@';. ;)/-'.#.#)* 9*8 ;)*$.9*. ('.H(*$ .) $;9>'K

B)>>)C#*= )* ."' @)).$.'-$ )@ X9>> ]1cc5^3 $'&'(9> 9H.")($ "9&' (';'*.>I 0I-9$$'8 ."#$ )0e';.#)* C#." ."'H$' )@ /)8'>$ C#." /)*)-)>#$.#; ;)/-'.#.#)*3 /H>.#`=))8 $'..#*=$3 .(98' ;)$.$3 9*8S)( $'9(;"'*&#()*/'*.$3 #* 9>> )@ C"#;" ('>9.#&' #*.'(/'8#9.'`=))8 #/-)(. -(#;'$ 9(' #/-)(.9*. 8'.'(/#*9*.$ )@



!%

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C)H>8 0' /)(' '@@#;#'*. 9*8 /)(' 8#&'($#@#'8 ."9* ."' 8)/'$.#; #*.'(/'8#9.' =))8$ ."9.

."'I ('->9;'3 ."H$ (9#$#*= )H.-H. C#." ."' $9/' #*-H.$ )@ ;9-#.9> 9*8 >90)(K MH.9.#$

/H.9*8#3 9 !)! 8'.'(#)(9.#)* C)H>8 8'-(';#9.' ."' ('9> '\;"9*=' (9.' 9*8 #*8H;' 9*

#*'@@#;#'*. $H0$.#.H.#)* )@ 8)/'$.#; @)( #/-)(.'8 #*.'(/'8#9.'$K R* 988#.#)*3 9* #*;('9$'

]8';('9$'^ #* ."' !)! C)H>8 (9#$' ]('8H;'^ 9==('=9.' 8'/9*8 9*8 #/-9;. -)$#.#&'>I

]*'=9.#&'>I^ )* /'9$H('8 .).9> @9;.)( -()8H;.#&#.I H*8'( #*;('9$#*= ('.H(*$ .) $;9>'K

A*)."'( ;"9**'>`̀ -()090>I /)(' ('>'&9*. #* M'\#;) #* &#'C )@ ."' #/-)(.9*;' )@ )#>

('&'*H' #* ."' =)&'(*/'*. 0H8='.``/#=". 0' @()/ "#="'( ]>)C'(^ !)! .) /)(' ]>'$$^

#*@(9$.(H;.H(' #*&'$./'*.K

^ )>ED=X ?IF ;=>M@=M>?J XB=B>EKBIBN=C1_ NI \NWB FNLBI;NEI;

R* ."' -('&#)H$ $';.#)*$3 C' #8'*.#@#'8 9 *H/0'( )@ -9(9>>'>#$/$ 0'.C''* ."' =()C."

'\-'(#'*;'$ )@ :(9O#> 9*8 M'\#;) $#*;' 1c65K R* ."#$ $';.#)*3 C' 9(' #*.'('$.'8 #* ."' /)('

(';'*. -'(#)83 #* C"#;" 0)." ;)H*.(#'$ *). )*>I @9#>'8 .) (';)&'( ."'#( -('&#)H$ "#="=()C." (9.'$ 0H. $9C ."'#( ('$-';.#&' -()8H;.#&#.#'$ -'( C)(U'( >#*='( )* 9 $.9.' )@ *'9(

$.9=*9.#)*K

!here is a basic similarity in these countries’ post`1c25 /9;()';)*)/#;

'\-'(#'*;'3 C"#;" #$ ."9. '#."'( 0';9H$' )@ -)>#;I @9#>H('$ )@ $.(H;.H(9> ;)*8#.#)*$3 :(9O#>

9*8 M'\#;) C'(' H*90>' .) H*8) ."' #*;('9$'$ #* ."' ('>9.#&' -(#;' )@ #*&'$./'*. 9*8 #*

."' ;9-#.9> #*.'*$#.I )@ -()8H;.#)* )0$'(&'8 $#*;' ."' '9(>I 1c25$. They’re also unable to

(9#$' ."'#( ('$-';.#&' $9&#*=$ (9.'$ $H@@#;#'*.>I "#=" .) ;)/-'*$9.' @)( $H;" #*&'$./'*.`

8'-('$$#*= @9;.)($K

:'I)*8 ."#$3 ."'(' 9(' ('>'&9*. 8#@@'('*;'$ in these countries’ recent slow ̀=()C."

'\-'(#'*;'$K M'\#;) )-'*'8 H- #.$ ';)*)/I .) .(98' C#." ."' )H.$#8' C)(>8 ]/)$.>I .)

."' [,^ 9*8 ."H$ $H;;''8'8 #* 8'&'>)-#*= 9 @#($.`class industrial sector in the country’s

(#;"'( P)(."'(* ('=#)*K X)C'&'(3 9 $#/#>9( 8)/'$.#; #*.'=(9.#)* didn’t 9;;)/-9*I ."#$

'\.'(*9> #*.'=(9.#)*K !"' 8I*9/#$/ )@ ."' >9(=' '\-)(.#*= @#(/$ #* ."' P)(." 8#8 *).

@''8 09;U .) ."' *)*`.(98'83 #*@)(/9>3 $/9>> 9*8 /'8#H/`sized firms in the country’s

-))('( ,)H."'(* ('=#)*$. Since the latter generate not only most of the country’s jobs but

9>$) 9 $H0$.9*.#9> -9(. )@ #.$ )H.-H.3 ."' ;)*$'VH'*;' C9$ 9 &'(I >)C 9==('=9.' >90)(

-()8H;.#&#.I =()C." (9.'K

Thus, the structural heterogeneity between “modern” and “traditional” sectors

$''/$ .) "9&' C#8'*'8 #* M'\#;) #* ."' -)$.`('@)(/ -'(#)8K R* :(9O#>3 #* $'&'(9>

8#/'*$#)*$ ."#$ 8H9>#$/ 8';('9$'8+ ."' -))('( P)(." =('C @9$.'( ."9* ."' (#;"'( ,)H."W

."' >)C'(`-()8H;.#&#.I 9=(#;H>.H(' 8#8 0'..'( ."9* ."' "#="'(`-()8H;.#&#.I #*8H$.(IW16

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16 ?()8H;.#&#.I #* 9=(#;H>.H(' ]#*;>H8#*= $.);U 0(''8#*=^ #*;('9$'8 0I 9 $H0$.9*.#9> 6K4f I'9(>I 9&'(9=' (9.'0'.C''* 1cc6 9*8 451J3 C"#>' #* $'(&#;'$ ."' 9&'(9=' (9.' C9$ )*>I 5K_f -K9K 9*8 #* /9*H@9;.H(#*= *'9(>IO'()K B)( ."' ';)*)/I 9$ 9 C")>' ."' ;)(('$-)*8#*= (9.' C9$ 1K1fK !"'$' @#=H('$ 9(' @()/ 9* )*=)#*=



!&

0#=='( /9*H@9;.H(#*= @#(/$ 8#8 *). )H.@>9*U /'8#H/ 9*8 $/9>> @#(/$W #*@)(/9>#.I

8';('9$'8 #* ."' >9$. 8';98'. Brazil’s problem $''/$ .) "9&' 0''* ."9. #* ;)*.(9$. .)

Mexico’s her high`-()8H;.#&#.I >9(='`/9*H@9;.H(#*= @#(/$ 8#8 *). #*.'=(9.' #*.) ."' C)(>8

';)*)/I 9*8 ."H$ $9C ."'#( -()8H;.#&#.I =()C &'(I $>)C>I3 '\;'-. #* 9 @'C $H0$';.)($K

!"#$ -()&#8'8 9 C'9U >'&'( .) /)&' ."' ('$. )@ ."' ';)*)/I H-K !"'('@)('3 ."' ;)H*.(I

>#*='('8 )* #* 9 >)C )&'(9>> -()8H;.#&#.I -9."3 '\;'-. C"'* ."' ;)//)8#.I >)..'(I

8#;.9.'8 )."'(C#$'K

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;)/->'/'*. .) ."' 9==('=9.' 9*9>I$#$ #* ."' -('&#)H$ $';.#)*K !"' 8#/'*$#)*$ 9('+

=')-)>#.#;9> H*#.$3 ';)*)/#; $';.)($3 .(9890#>#.I3 @#(/ $#O'3 9*8 #*@)(/9>#.IK

^`7 *BKNEI?J FNLBI;NEI

R* ."#$ $H0$';.#)* C' #*&'$.#=9.' ."' '&)>H.#)* )@ ."' 8#$-'($#)* )@ ('9> -'( ;9-#.9#*;)/'$ 9/)*= ."' ,.9.'$ #* :(9O#> 9*8 M'\#;)K !"' 9*9>I$#$ ;)*$#8'($ ."' 4d :(9O#>#9*

$.9.'$ 9*8 ."' J4 M'\#;9* @'8'(9.#&' '*.#.#'$K !"' -'(#)8$ @)( C"#;" C' C'(' 90>' .)

)0.9#* 9--9('*.>I ('>#90>' 9*8 H*#@)(/ 89.9 C'(' 1cc5`4514 @)( :(9O#> 9*8 1cc5`451J @)(

M'\#;)K

i' H$' ."' (9.#) )@ ."' $.9*89(8 8'&#9.#)* .) ."' H*C'#=".'8 9&'(9=' ('9> -'(

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$")C* #* B#=H(' 2 0'>)CK

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It’s C'>>`U*)C* ."9. #* ."' -'($)*9> 8#/'*$#)* :(9O#> "9$ 9 /)(' H*'VH9> #*;)/'

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Brazil’s sigma is always higher than Mexico’s. However, in ."' -'(#)8 H*8'( ;)*$#8'(9.#)*

."' 8#$-'($#)* )@ ."' ,.9.'$’ -'( ;9-#.9 #*;)/'$ 8#/#*#$"'$ #* :(9O#>3 C#." #.$ $#=/9 @9>>#*=

('$'9(;" 0I BK T'>)$)3 ,K M9(VH'$ 9*8 :K D)'>")3 @()/ R:<7SBET3 .) C")/ C' '\-('$$ )H( =(9.#.H8' @)(>'..#*= H$ H$' ."'#( H*-H0>#$"'8 ('$H>.$K

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@()/ 5Kdc #* 1cc5 .) 5Kb1 #* 4514K R* M'\#;)3 9 ('&'($' C#8'*#*= -9..'(* #$ )0$'(&'8

$#*;' 1ccb. Initially, Mexico’s sigma @9>>$3 @()/ 5K65 #* 1cc5 .) 5K_d #* 1cc63 0H. ."'* #.

#*;('9$'$ 9>/)$. ;)*.#*H)H$>I3 .) '*8 9. 9 &9>H' )@ 5K6_ #* 451JK1b

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#*;('9$' #* M'\#;) 9*8 .) 8';('9$' #* :(9O#> $#*;' ."' 1cc5$K !"' $-';H>9.#)* #$ ."9.

/9*H@9;.H(#*= 9;.#&#.I 0>)$$)/'8 #* P)(."'(* M'\#;)3 C'>> #*.'=(9.'8 .) ."' [K,K 0H.

C#." @'C >#*U9='$ .) ."' ('$. )@ ."' ;)H*.(IK M'9*C"#>'3 )#> -()8H;.#)* $.9=*9.'8 #* ."'

country’s Southern region. In Brazil, on the contrary, manufacturing 9;.#&#.I3 C"#;" #$

#*C9(8 >))U#*= 9*8 highly concentrated in the country’s richer state, São Paulo, los.

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1b Mexico’s sigma of State per capita incomes seems to have fallen in the previous 1970 `1c2c -'(#)83 @()/5Kdb .) 5K663 0H. C' 9(' H*$H(' )@ ."' ;)/-9(90#>#.I )@ ."#$ 89.9 C#." ."9. -('$'*.'8 90)&' @)( ."'$H0$'VH'*. 1cc5`2013 period. Brazil’s State real per capita incomes data previously to 1990 seem totallyH*('>#90>'K i' ."9*U :'(*9(8) D)'>")3 @()/ R:<73 @)( ."' :(9O#>#9* 89.9K!(

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&9>H' @()/ 1ccb .) 4514 ]$'' :9;"9 9*8 X)@@/9**3 451_3 E(9-" J^K ,'' LH$.#= ]4515^ @)( 9 -'(;'-.#&'9*9>I$#$ )@ ."' #/-9;. )@ .C'*.I`five years of reforms on Mexico’s poverty and inequality. 12 D@K !#//'(3 8'T(#'$3 9*8 8'T(#'$ ]451_^K



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downward trend in Mexico’s sigma throughout the period. That is, both the extraordinary

#*;('9$' #* ."' 8#$-'($#)* )@ -()8H;.#&#.I >'&'>$ 9@.'( ."' >9.' 1cd5$ 9*8 ."' 8';>#*'$ 9*8

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be explained by the ups and downs of Mexico’s oil sector.

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$#=/9$ )@ ."' .C) ;)H*.(#'$ "9$ 8';('9$'8 (';'*.>IK

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whole there’s little relationship between initial productivity levels and subsequent growth

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country’s richer Northern region. A $#/#>9( 8)/'$.#; #*.'=(9.#)n didn’t accompany this

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https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B107mzf0jBOgRDZGTEs3QTk3SFU/edit


http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10128



http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro/2014/submissao/files_I/i9-9c61bb9eb8e6112ab926cc4419fff06c.pdf









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Bacha Edmar Bonelli Regis (Coincident Growth Collapses Brazil and Mexico Since the Early 1980s)

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