BABY-O-MATIC

Guaranteed 100% accuracy

1. Discuss your score with your group

2. Discuss how many children you actually believe you will have

3. Using your ‘Sherlock’ Inferencing Skills – determine what factors will affect the number of children a woman may have in her lifetime.

POPULATION PROBLEM SET #1

Answers

Practice

Cartography is study of: Biology is study of: Volcanology is study of: Seismology is study of: Demography is study of:

Historical Population What was the world’s population in 1804?

1 billion What happened in China in 1979? One Child

Policy Examine the world’s population in 1927, 1960,

1974, 1987, 1999 ~ what trend do you notice? Exponential (fast) population growth

Examine the world’s population in 2013, 2028, 2054, 2200 ~ what trend do you notice about projections? Rate of Population Growth is decreasing - (natural increase)

Historical Population Growth

United Nations Population Models

Measuring Population Change

Population change is measured by four basic components:

How many people are born – BIRTH RATE

How many people die – DEATH RATE How many move into an area –

IMMIGRATION RATE How many move out of a region (EXIT)

– EMIGRATION RATE

NATURAL INCREASE

NI = BIRTH RATE – DEATH RATE • Canada’s Natural Increase: 10.6 – 7.4 = 3.2 per

1000

(STABLE/CONTRACTING) Russia’s Natural Increase: 10.8 – 15.1 =

-4.3

(CONTRACTING) India’s Natural Increase: 23.0 - 8.5 = 14.5

(EXPANDING)

CENSUS DATA Every 5-10 years in

Canada Questions for

Canada’s population – gives government information to help provide services

Very importantAccuracy based on infrastructure, literacy rates, political stability, government freedom, wealth of a country

World Population Density* Crowdedness *

Canada’s Population Density

World’s Largest Cities

1. Tokyo – 37 m

2. Jakarta – 26m

3. Seoul – 22m

4. Dehli

5. Shanghai – 20m

10. Mexico – 19m

POPULATION FACTSThe world’s population growth pattern has been exponential; it is increasing at a rapid pace that can seem uncontrollable at times.

Why the explosion in population growth?

•The number of people (death rate) is decreasing due to better medical care

•Birth rates continue to be high in COUNTRIES THAT STRUGGLE WITH POVERTY however in many newly industrializing countries like India, infant mortality is decreasing.

But Surprise!

The world’s population growth rate is decreasing on every continent. We reached our peak growth rate around 1950, and our rate of natural increase is decreasing globally.

CANADIAN STATS

Overall Population Density is extremely low

Average Life Expectancy is 81 years oldBC – Men 80, Women 84

Rate of Natural Increase is 4.0 (2013) Population growth rate is highest of all

G8 countries – 2/3 of growth rate is from immigration – important to support aging population of BABY BOOMERS

Why would people want a large family?

BRAINSTORM

Why Do Some Countries Have Large Populations and Other Small?

Career Prospects Birth rates Death Rates Health Care ‘Need for Children’ – poverty Education levels Women’s Rights Infant Mortality Rate Rural living – more workers needed to collect water, etc. Sons bring wealth, dowries, etc. Sense of community

AGE THAT WOMEN HAVE THEIR FIRST CHILD IS EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT - LONGER PROLONGED, LOWER POPULATION RATES

The Demographic Transition Model

(CP pg 324)

A theory that explains how populations will change. According to this theory, a population will pass through 5 stages.

Age Pyramid Review – Early Expanding

CONCAVE SHAPEHigh Birth RatesHigh Death RatesPopulations are not

extremely high because of death rates

Short life expectancy Congo (51),

Afghanistan (61), Sierra Leone (48)

Age Pyramid Review – Expanding

Typical PYRAMID shape

High Birth Rates Death Rates are

starting to lower – increased health care

Generally large populations

Slightly longer life expectancies

India, Mexico

Age Pyramid Review – Stable

Often looks like a ‘house’ Relatively straight sides Birth rates significantly

lower Death Rates significantly

lower – strong health care

Much larger elderly population

Population can sustain itself

USA, France

Age Pyramid Review – Contracting

Bottom is extremely small

Very low birth rate Low death rate Large population of

elderly people Needs immigration to

sustain its population with labour force

Japan, Germany, Canada

Prediction Questions Which pyramid type has a “shrinking” population?

CONTRACTING Which pyramid type has the highest birth and death

rates? EARLY EXPANDING Which pyramids do you think have the highest standard of

living? STABLE/CONTRACTING Which pyramid do you think is most likely to represent

Brazil or India? EXPANDING Which pyramid do you think represents Afghanistan or

Congo? EARLY EXPANDING Which pyramid has the largest number of people under

15, and people over 64? EXPANDING DEPENDENCY RATIO – MOST PEOPLE TO TAKE CARE OF

AGE PYRAMID - CANADA

Pyramids Tell a Story

Germany’s Age Pyramid

What makes populations shift through different stages?

Now match it up to Pyramids…*** This is a spectrum..with space in between different stages

What Does Your Pyramid Look Like? Be prepared to explain your pyramid to

me! Include at least 5 age cohorts….

What are your country’s “prospects for the future”?

Ensure is complete ~ worth 5 marks

Population Issues: pg. 368-369

Review text pages ~ HW ~ read well and take notes in order to complete next day’s assignment.