AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Fund - The Case for Mid Cap Investing · 2014. 9. 15. · AXA...
Transcript of AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Fund - The Case for Mid Cap Investing · 2014. 9. 15. · AXA...
Chris St John – Fund Manager
AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Fund
- The Case for Mid Cap Investing
September 2014
This communication is for professional advisers only and must not be relied
upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly.
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Chris St John
Lead Fund Manager, AXA Framlington
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Chris joined AXA Framlington in 2005 and is the lead fund manager of the AXA Framlington UK Mid
Cap Fund.
15 years investment experience in UK Mid/small cap equities.
Qualified Chartered Accountant.
Top quartile record at ISIS and AXA Framlington in mid and small cap investing.
Mid and small cap institutional funds ahead of the benchmark by >4% pa since inception
UK Mid cap 21.9% ahead of Index* since inception (04/03/2011)
Nigel Thomas – Secondary Fund Manager
Nigel joined AXA Framlington in 2002. He is the lead manager for the AXA Framlington UK Select
Opportunities Fund.
He trained as an accountant with Robson Rhodes, leaving to join Carrington Pembroke (subsequently
ABN AMRO and now Artemis Unit Trust Managers) as a Private Client Portfolio Manager. He
subsequently joined Hill Samuel to run the Hill Samuel Smaller Companies Unit Trust for two years
before rejoining Carrington Pembroke in 1986, launching and managing their UK Growth Fund.
Nigel graduated from University College London with a degree in Economics and Geography in 1976.
In 2013 he was made an Honorary Fellow of Trinity Hall Cambridge for services to investment and
their endowment.
Source: AXA IM as at 31/08/2014. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. *Index – FTSE 250 Mid (ex IT) CR52493/11-14
Case for Mid Cap Investing
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6th largest economy in the world
UK is the low-cost manufacturer of Europe (source: Boston Consulting Group “BCG” Cost Competitive Index)
UK automotive output has increased 50% since 2009 (source: BCG)
>6% of UK GDP spent on the internet - Korea <6%, US circa 4% (source: McKinsey)
2nd largest aerospace industry globally (source: Exane)
UK pharmaceutical industry invests circa £13.3bn annually with £5bn trade surplus (source: Exane)
Why does nobody like the UK?
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CR52493/11-14:
Why invest UK mid cap (structural)?
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Investors under-estimate change and earnings growth
Source: AXA IM as at 31/07/2014. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. CR52493/11-14
Performance 10 year annualised return 13.7%
20 year annualised return 11.2%
Earnings Growth Year end 31/12/2001 net income £5.5bn
Year end 31/08/2014 net income £17.2bn
Dynamic changing index of
companies 22 changes in 2014 so far
Geographic and sector
diversification
c.50% ex UK
Top stock 1.65% of index
Market leaders Best of British, Best in the World
UK Mid Cap – Performance and compounding
Cumulative performance
Source: FactSet from 31/12/1999 to 31/08/2014. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. CR52493/11-14
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50
100
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450
Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13
+406% FTSE 250 Mid TR
+183% FTSE All-Share
+266% FTSE 250 Mid CR
+224% FTSE A Brit Govt
+169% MSCI World
Why invest in Mid Cap (cyclical)?
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Variety, Coveted Assets, Alpha
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. CR52493/11-14
Declining sell side coverage Less analysts, more thinly spread
Beneficiaries of Mergers and
Acquisitions Improving confidence = more activity
Less intense regulatory
spotlight Regulation, price controls, windfall tax
IPO market New businesses, new opportunities
Strong balance sheets Equity the beneficiary
6
8
10
12
14
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20
22
Aug-98 Aug-99 Aug-00 Aug-01 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14
FTSE 250 12m fwd PE excl Investment trusts Avg - FTSE 250
Source: Citigroup from January 2000 to August 2014. NB: Past performance is not a guide to future performance. CR52493/11-14
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FTSE 250 ex IT UK PE 12M Forward earnings
Historically compounding profit increased capital value
“Short Term voting machine, Long Term weighing machine” Benjamin Graham
Net Income (August 2014)
£ 17.2 bn
Net Income (Dec-2001)
£ 5.5 bn
Realistic earnings expectations
2014 IBES Consensus PAT* growth of 0.8% seems reasonable
IBES Consensus median PAT growth of 5.9% 2013 (actual), 5.0% 2014 (forecast)
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Bottom up earnings forecasts are realistic in many cases
Source: Chart: Citigroup as at 31/08/2014. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. *Profit after Tax. CR52493/11-14
0
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Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Net Upgrades/(Downgrades) >5% (LHS) FTSE 250 (RHS)
Companies are in good shape
UK Corporate Cash balances (£bn) at all time highs…
Source: BoAML, May 2014. CR52293/09-14
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M&A targets – FTSE 250 Earnings yield vs UK BBB Corp bond yield
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Source: Citigroup as at 31/08/2014. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. CR52493/11-14
M&A, CapEx, buy backs, dividends supported
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Aug 00 Aug 02 Aug 04 Aug 06 Aug 08 Aug 10 Aug 12 Aug 14
FTSE 250 Earnings Yield UK BBB Corp Bond Yield
M&A deals boost UK Equity market
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Source: Citigroup Corp. & Investment Bank – MertGenc as at 31/08/2014. CR52493/11-14
M&A Deals since 2001
Increasing M&A bodes well
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£0
£10
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD
Value (£bn) (LHS) No. of deals (RHS)
There is always opportunity
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Number of stocks in the FTSE 250 with total shareholder return in excess of 20% between
2000 and 2014 YTD
Source: AXA IM as at 04/09/2014. * Capital Return. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. CR52493/11-14
Stockpicking paradise
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30
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD04/09/2014*
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ies
Idea Generation
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Strategy / thematic views – economic tailwind rather than headwind
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CR52493/11-14
UK Survivorship
Beneficiaries of the
Credit Crunch
Disruptive
Innovation
Increasing capital
efficiency Technological
Disruption
Self Help/
Management
Change
Pricing Power
Reindustrialisation
of US
Total Shareholder
Returns
Can’t Change,
won’t change
Service, Service,
Service.
Digital Connected
Economy
Innovations, Behavioural and Global Secular Trends
Drivers for a Quality Portfolio
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Organic
Pricing Power
Equity Incentivised
High Service Levels
Intellectual Property
EconomicTailwind
Strong Balance Sheet
Clear Accounting
Acquisition Growth
Price Taker
Salary Incentivised
Product Only
Generalised Product
Economic Headwind
Inappropriate Leverage
Opaque Accounting
Likes Dislikes
Assessment of management’s ability to guard capital whilst capitalising on opportunities
CR52493/11-14
Market Focus 2014 and Investment Outlook
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Market Focus 2014
Market concerns
– QE tapering
– Policy inflection
– EU deflation
– Geopolitics
– Complacency
Equity supply (IPO) vs demand (M&A, fund flows)
Brutal style rotation in Q2 2014
Source: AXA IM as at 31/08/2014. CR52493/11-14
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Investment Outlook
We believe earnings look set to recover – operational gearing to economic recovery and
business investment
Total Shareholder Return focus rewarded
Earnings growth will be highly prized commodity
Geopolitical/macro economic uncertainty likely to create short term stock market volatility
We continue to remain wary of leverage
Corporates currently exhibit strong balance sheets and accelerating investment, cash returns
and M&A
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Market continues to favour stock picking which suits our style
CR52493/11-14
AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Fund
– Performance & Structure
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AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Fund
Performance
Source: Graph: Lipper as at 31/08/2014, Basis: Z share class, net income reinvested, Bid to Bid, net fees in GBP. Table: Fund, IMA & Quartile: Lipper, Net
Income, Bid to Bid. Net Fees as at 31/08/2014. *AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Fund Institutional Share Class. **Rank vs IMA UK All Companies. Z institutional
share class used in the IMA peer group.*** from 04/03/2011 to 31/12/2011. Inception date 04/03/2011. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. CR52493/11-14
Net Cumulative Performance since Chris St John took over the Fund’s management (04/03/2011)
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Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14
AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap - Net, Z IMA UK All Companies
34.2%
2014 YTD 2013 2012 2011*** 1Y 3Y Since inception**
AXA Framlington UK Mid cap Net* 2.2 42.0 29.1 6.2- 13.3 91.9 75.9
FTSE 250 Mid (ex IT) TR 0.9 34.9 28.7 12.2- 11.5 70.2 54.0
Net performance relative to comparative benchmark 1.3 7.1 0.4 6.0 1.8 21.7 21.9
Rank*** 116/261 12/262 17/278 83/293 49/261 8/251 5/244
Quartile 2 1 1 2 1 1 1
75.9%
AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Unit Trust
Name : AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Fund
Fund manager : Chris St John
Launch date : 4 March 2011
Fund size : £77.1m
Fund beta : 1.00
Number of holdings : 69
Fund structure : Unit Trust
Management fee : 0.75% per annum with £100k minimum investment (Institutional Class)
Comparative benchmark : FTSE 250 ex IT (used as a point of reference)
Fund manager’s self : Unconstrained UK Medium Capitalisation Portfolio
Imposed parameters Exposure to FTSE 250 ex IT of not less than 70%
Exposure no greater than 15% held in FTSE 100
Target typically 60-80 holdings
No greater than 4% stock holding size
Source: AXA IM as at 31/08/2014. CR52493/11-14
Actively managed UK Mid Cap fund
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By Market Cap (%)
By Industry (%)
Source: FactSet as at 31/08/2014. Comparative benchmark: FTSE 250 ex IT. CR52493/11-14
AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Fund
Portfolio as at 31/08/2014
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Fund
%
Fund
%
FTSE 100 4.7 FTSE AIM 3.6
FTSE 250 81.4 Other 0.0
FTSE Small Cap 2.3 Cash 5.9
Fund
%
Relative
%
Fund
%
Relative
%
Oil & Gas 3.7 -1.6 Consumer Services 16.9 -2.8
Basic Materials 3.1 -2.1 Telecom Services 4.3 1.6
Industrials 37.1 11.9 Financials 18.0 -7.0
Consumer Goods 1.7 -6.3 Information Technology 6.3 2.7
Health Care 3.0 -0.2 Cash 5.9 5.9
AXA Framlington UK Mid Cap Fund
Top 20 holdings as at 31/07/2014
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Source: FactSet as at 31/07/2014. CR52493/11-14
% of
portfolio
% of
portfolio
Essentra plc 2.2 Kentz Corporation Limited 1.8
Howden Joinery Group PLC 2.0 ITV plc 1.7
Senior plc 2.0 Telecom Plus PLC 1.7
Ultra Electronics Holdings plc 1.9 Dixons Retail plc 1.7
RPC Group Plc 1.9 QinetiQ Group plc 1.7
Paragon Group of Companies PLC 1.9 Rightmove plc 1.7
Elementis plc 1.9 Grainger plc 1.7
Hunting PLC 1.9 BBA Aviation Plc 1.6
HellermannTyton Group Plc 1.8 Betfair Group plc 1.6
Premier Oil plc 1.8 Greene King plc 1.6
36.1
Appendix
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Investment process
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4. Continuous
risk management Continuous fund review
Combination of sector thematics and bottom-up stock picking
4. Continuous risk management
3. Portfolio construction
Circa 60-80 holdings
2. Bottom-up analysis
Fundamental analysis Company meetings
Valuation assessment
1. Top-down sector/theme analysis
CR52493/11-14
Fund Managers’ Investment process*
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These limits do not refer to restrictions on the fund. CR52493/11-14
Bottom-up analysis Top-down sector/theme Portfolio Construction 1 2 3 4 Continuous risk
management
Micro/macro economic drivers
Constantly reviewed
Management and industry feedback
Management track record
Organic growth
Pricing power
High barriers to entry
Customer diversification
Appropriate funding structure
Valuation
Target 60-80 holdings
Holding size correlates to risk /
reward
Maximum 4% size
Market capitalisation spread
Sector diversification
Benchmark aware
not benchmark driven
Ongoing company meetings /
assessment
Sell discipline
Important notice
This communication is intended for Investment Professional use only and should not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted
accordingly. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is prohibited.
This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or buy any units in the Fund. Information relating to investments is based on research and analysis
undertaken or procured by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited for its own purposes and may have been made available to other members of the AXA
Investment Managers group of companies which, in turn, may have acted on it. Whilst every care is taken over these comments, no responsibility is accepted
for errors and omissions that may be contained therein. It is therefore not to be taken as a recommendation to enter into any investment transactions.
This communication should not be regarded as an offer, solicitation, invitation or recommendation to subscribe for any AXA IM investment service or product
and is provided to you for information purposes only. The views expressed do not constitute investment advice and do not necessarily represent the views of
any company within the AXA Investment Managers Group and may be subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty (including liability
towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein.
Information relating to investments may have been based on research and analysis undertaken or procured by AXA Framlington for its own purposes and may
have been made available to other expertises within the AXA Investment Managers Group, who in turn may have acted upon it. Information in this document
may be updated from time to time and may vary from previous or future published versions of this document.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the
amount originally invested. Changes in exchange rates will affect the value of investments made overseas. Investments in newer markets and smaller
companies offer the possibility of higher returns but may also involve a higher degree of risk. An initial charge is usually made when you purchase units. Your
investment should be for the medium to long term i.e. typically 5-10 years.
AXA Framlington is an expertise of AXA Investment Managers UK Limited. Issued by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited which is authorised and regulated
by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068 Registered Office: 7 Newgate Street, London
EC1A 7NX. Telephone calls may be recorded for quality assurance purposes.
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