AWIA Risk and Resilience Assessment: Introduction to VSAT ...
Transcript of AWIA Risk and Resilience Assessment: Introduction to VSAT ...
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AWIA Risk and Resilience Assessment: Introduction to VSAT 2.0 and Risk Assessments
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Covering the Basics• Discuss the importance of conducting a
risk assessment
• Tools to assist in the completion of a Risk and Resilience assessment
• Facilitating a risk assessment at your utility
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Risk Defined
Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequences
Threat – likelihood or frequency that the incident will occur over a specified period of time, typically 1 year.
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Risk Defined
Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequences
Vulnerability - The conditional probability that a specific threat, given that it occurs, will cause the specific estimated consequences to the asset.
For malevolent threats, it may be interpreted as the likelihood of the an adversary’s success.
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Risk Defined
Consequences - human, financial and property losses, and lifeline service interruptions for the immediate, short- and long-term effects of a threat on an asset (threat-asset pair).
These effects include losses suffered by the owner of the asset and losses suffered by the community served by that asset, respectively.
Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequences
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Risk and Resilience Assessment
• Assesses threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences
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Risk and Resilience Assessment
• Identify ways to reduce or eliminate risk
• Increase Resilience
Resilience
Risk
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Risk and Resilience Assessment
• Determine: Are the remaining risks acceptable?
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Risk and Resilience Assessment Getting Started
• Select your team • Knowledgeable stakeholders • Assessment Team Leader• Determine informational needs• Establish Assessment parameters
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AWWA J-100 Standard Risk Assessment Process
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Asset Characterization
Mission• Amount or Level of Service• External and Internal Standards
Evaluation
• Evaluate Major Assets focusing on those Critical to Mission• Evaluate Processes/Personnel• Review Utilities Asset Management Plan
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• Inventory of Critical Assets/Processes/Personnel• Development of Monetary Values for Critical Assets• Update Utility Asset Management Plan
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Threat Characterization
Identify• Malevolent, Natural• Dependency, Proximity
Selection
• Reasonable Worst Case Scenario• Relevant to Area• Always Include Cybersecurity
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• Threat Determination Process• Decision
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Consequence Analysis
Categories
• Fatalities, Serious Injuries• Serious Injuries• Loss of Utility Revenue: Repair Costs and Replacement Costs,
Liability• Regional Economic Impact from Loss of Service
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• Consequence Determination Process• Decision• Reasonable Worst Case Scenario
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Vulnerability Analysis
Identify
• Physical Evaluation of Assets • Existing Countermeasure Evaluation
Document
• Method used in Vulnerability Determination Process
• Reasonable Worst Case Scenario
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Select • Malevolent, Natural• Dependency, Proximity
Analyze
• Input from Law Enforcement, Federal, State and Local Agencies
• Historical Records
Document
• Methods – Target attractiveness, Proximity to high profile targets
• Decision
Threat Analysis
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Select • Asset-Threat Pairs
Analyze
• Combine Values:• Consequences x Threats x Vulnerabilities
Document
• Asset-Threat Pairs selected• Values determined for Risk Equation
Risk and Resilience Analysis
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Identify • Acceptable Level of Risk• Asset-Threat Pairs with Unacceptable Risk
Analyze
• Existing and Potential Countermeasures• Net-Benefit and Benefit Cost Ratio of
Improvements
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• Improvements in Risk• Process for Subsequent Review
Risk and Resilience Management
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List of EPA Resources
https://www.epa.gov/waterresilience/
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Start by Providing Basic Water System Information
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Select the Asset groups that are determined to be critical in the initial screening.
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Enter specific utility assets for the quantitative risk assessment.
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Assign one of the threats to the asset to start the analysis.
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Select the Flood event intensity.
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Use of the WHEAT CALCULATOR is available in VSAT to assist in developing the consequence numbers for health and financial impacts.
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The Countermeasure Analysis is optional for AWIA compliance but is recommended.
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Program to Assist Risk & Resilience Examination (PARRE) © 2019 AEM Corporationhttps://www.aemcorp.com/riskassessments
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Used to supplement the Risk and Resilience Assessment and Emergency Response Plan Development
• List of Common Utility Hazards and Associated Consequences
• Identify Specific Actions that will Eliminate or Mitigate Consequences
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Elston Johnson, ChairTexas Section [email protected]