Auto Sector Update, June 2013

7/28/2019 Auto Sector Update, June 2013

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/auto-sector-update-june-2013 1/12

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Domestic automotive sales remained weak in June 2013, in-line with expectations,

impacted by slowdown in economic activity and negative consumer sentiments.

While the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV), passenger car (PC) and

motorcycle segments continued to remain the most impacted, growth in the utility

vehicle (UV) and light commercial vehicle (LCV) segments too has tapered off since

the beginning of FY2014. The tractor segment however witnessed a strong growth

on expectations of a normal monsoon. Going ahead, we expect the demand

environment for the sector to remain sluggish in 2QFY2014 as well; however, we

expect a marginal recovery in volumes in 2HFY2014 led by continuous softening of

interest rates, expectation of a normal monsoon, festival season demand and also

on account of the base effect.

Tata Motors (TTMT) continued with its downward sales momentum in the domestic

markets as its commercial vehicle (CV) and passenger vehicle (PV) businesses

reported a decline of 13% and 31.2% yoy respectively. Consequently, total volumes

registered a decline of 18.1% yoy to 52,708 units. While MHCV and PV sales

continued to slide sharply, LCV sales too witnessed a decline during the month.

Ashok Leyland (AL) reported broadly in-line volumes with total sales witnessing a

decline of 32% yoy (4.1% mom) to 6,967 units, following weak industrial activity. CV

sales (ex. Dost) declined by 37.3% yoy (4.4% mom); Dost sales reported a decline of

17.3% yoy to 2,253 units.

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) Maruti Suzuki posted a 12.6% yoy (flat mom) decline in totalsales to 84,455 units, which was in-line with our expectations. The weak

performance could be attributed to continued slowdown in domestic demand and

macroeconomic uncertainty in key export markets. While domestic volumes declined

7.8% yoy (1.1% mom), export volumes posted a significant decline of 43% yoy.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) reported a mixed performance. Its automotive segment

witnessed a sharp decline of 7.8% yoy (12.4% mom) due to a slowdown in the PV

segment; however the tractor segment continued with the strong momentum and

reported a better-than-expected growth of 16.8% yoy (17.5% mom). Total sales

posted a modest growth of 1.2% yoy (down 1.9% mom) to 65,841 units. The

automotive segment recorded lower-than-expected sales as volumes were impacted

due to a 12.9% yoy (22.5% mom) decline in the PV segment on account ofslowdown in demand for utility vehicle (UV)s following an increase in excise duty and

also due to increasing competition in the segment.

Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Two-wheeler manufacturers in our coverage

universe posted an extremely poor performance as demand continued to remain

weak and with competition remaining at elevated levels. Bajaj Auto (BJAUT)

registered lower-than-expected volumes (sales down 14.3% yoy and 12.8% mom)

led by weakness in the domestic motorcycle segment and also on account of the

production loss due to strike at its Chakan plant. Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) posted a

6% yoy (10% mom) decline in volumes, which was lower-than-expected, impacted

by slowdown in demand and also on account of higher dispatches that had

happened in the month of April and May. TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reportedin-line volumes with total volumes remaining flat mom (down 2.7% yoy) led by poor

performance by the two-wheeler segment. Three-wheeler sales on the other hand

continued with the strong momentum and posted a growth of 108.2% yoy (16.7%

mom) driven by exports.

Automobile Sector

Downtrend intact

Monthly Update | June 2013

July 2, 2013

Yaresh Kothari

+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844

[email protected]



Auto Sector Update | June 2013

July 2, 2013 2

Tata Motors

Tata Motors maintained its downward sales momentum in the domestic

markets as the CV and PV businesses reported a decline of 13% and 31.2%

yoy respectively. Consequently, total volumes registered a decline of 18.1%

yoy to 52,708 units.

Within the CV space, MHCV and LCV segments witnessed a decline of 14.9%

and 12.2% yoy respectively, while in the PV segment, utility vehicle and

passenger cars witnessed a decline of 41.3% and 28.5% yoy respectively.

Exports too registered a decline of 34.2% yoy during the month.

On a mom basis though, total volumes posted a growth of 6.9%, driven by 8%

and 3.5% mom growth in the CV and PV segments respectively.

Exhibit 1: Tata Motors–

Sales trend

SegmentJune

2013June

2012% chg

YTDFY2014

YTDFY2013

% chg

Total sales 52,708 64,341 (18.1) 153,172 188,774 (18.9)

MHCV 11,733 13,789 (14.9) 32,997 37,151 (11.2)

LCV 28,630 32,608 (12.2) 83,500 89,483 (6.7)

CV 40,363 46,397 (13.0) 116,497 126,634 (8.0)

Utility vehicles 2,232 3,800 (41.3) 7,216 11,168 (35.4)

Cars 10,113 14,144 (28.5) 29,459 50,972 (42.2)

PV 12,345 17,944 (31.2) 36,675 62,140 (41.0)

Exports 3,996 6,071 (34.2) 11,435 13,071 (12.5)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: CV segment – Monthly sales trend


(20.0)

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

(%)(units) Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

TTMT’s sales continue to decline due to

poor demand in PV and MHCV

segments




July 2, 2013 3

Exhibit 3: PV segment – Monthly sales trend


Ashok Leyland

Ashok Leyland reported broadly in-line volumes with total sales witnessing a

decline of 32% yoy (4.1% mom) to 6,967 units.

Volumes continued to be impacted by slowdown in demand for MHCVs

following weak industrial activity in the country, which led to a 37.3% yoy

(4.4% mom) decline in CV sales (ex. Dost).

Dost’s sales too reported a decline of 17.3% yoy to 2,253 units.

Exhibit 4: Ashok Leyland – Sales trend

June2013

June2012

% chgYTD

FY2014YTD

FY2013% chg

Total sales 6,967 10,244 (32.0) 21,721 27,585 (21.3)

CV (ex. Dost) 4,714 7,519 (37.3) 14,897 20,337 (26.7)

Dost 2,253 2,725 (17.3) 6,824 7,248 (5.8)


Exhibit 5: CV segment – Monthly sales trend


(80.0)

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.080.0

100.0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,00035,000

40,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3


(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g -

1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r -

1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g -

1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r -

1 3

J u n - 1 3

(%)(units) Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

L’s CV sales continued to reel under

pressure led by slowdown in economic

activity




July 2, 2013 4

Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki posted a 12.6% yoy (flat mom) decline in total sales to 84,455

units, which was in-line with our expectations. The weak performance could be

attributed to continued slowdown in domestic demand and macroeconomic

uncertainty in key export markets.

While domestic volumes declined 7.8% yoy (1.1% mom), export volumes

posted a significant decline of 43% yoy.

The compact (down 7.2% yoy), super compact (down 8.7% mom) and UV

(down 11.4%) segments, which have been driving growth over the past one

year, witnessed a sluggish performance on account of continued slowdown in

demand and also due to increasing competition.

Exhibit 6: Maruti Suzuki

–

Sales trendSegment

June2013

June2012

% chgYTD

FY2014YTD

FY2013% chg

Total sales 84,455 96,597 (12.6) 266,434 295,896 (10.0)

A: Mini: M800, A-star, Alto, Wagon R

31,314 34,198 (8.4) 97,668 94,813 3.0

A: Compact: Swift, Estilo, Ritz 20,996 22,624 (7.2) 59,678 72,986 (18.2)

A: Super Compact: Dzire 12,548 13,741 (8.7) 49,259 46,958 4.9

A: Mid-size: SX4 314 408 (23.0) 1,418 1,447 (2.0)

A: Executive: Kizashi 0 6 (100.0) 0 21 (100.0)

Total passenger vehicles 65,172 70,977 (8.2) 208,023 216,225 (3.8)

B: UV - Gypsy,

Grand Vitara, Ertiga 4,997 5,638 (11.4) 14,622 18,965 (22.9)

C: Vans: Omni, Eeco 6,833 6,916 (1.2) 22,701 28,074 (19.1)

Total domestic sales 77,002 83,531 (7.8) 245,346 263,264 (6.8)

Total exports 7,453 13,066 (43.0) 21,088 32,632 (35.4)


Exhibit 7: Total volumes - Monthly sales trend


(80.0)

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

0.0

20.0

40.060.0

80.0

100.0

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3


MSIL registered in-line volumes; sales

were impacted by demand slowdown in

domestic and export markets




July 2, 2013 5

Mahindra & Mahindra

Mahindra & Mahindra reported a mixed performance with the automotive

segment witnessing a sharp decline of 7.8% yoy (12.4% mom) due to

slowdown in the PV segment; however, the tractor segment continued its

strong momentum and reported better-than-expected growth of 16.8% yoy

(17.5% mom). As a result, the total sales of the company posted a modest

growth of 1.2% yoy (down 1.9% mom) to 65,841 units.

The automotive segment recorded lower-than-expected sales, being impacted

by a 12.9% yoy (22.5% mom) decline in PV sales. The PV segment was hit by a

slowdown in demand for utility vehicles following an increase in excise duty

and also due to increasing competition in the segment.

The tractor segment witnessed a strong growth with domestic volumes

increasing by 18.8% yoy (18.9% mom) on expectations of a normal monsoonand improved prospects for the kharif crop.

Exhibit 8: Mahindra & Mahindra – Sales trend

SegmentJune

2013June

2012% chg

YTDFY2014

YTDFY2013

% chg

Total sales 65,841 65,087 1.2 197,562 185,606 6.4

Passenger vehicles 17,232 19,792 (12.9) 60,225 61,500 (2.1)

Four-wheel pick-up (GIO, Maxximo) 13,761 13,103 5.0 43,023 39,411 9.2

Three-wheelers (Champion, Alfa) 4,303 4,836 (11.0) 12,367 13,815 (10.5)

LCV/MHCV 911 1,220 (25.3) 2,599 3,458 (24.8)

Exports 1,885 2,371 (20.5) 4,771 7,841 (39.2)

Total automotive sales 38,092 41,322 (7.8) 122,985 126,025 (2.4)

Tractor sales – Domestic 26,723 22,493 18.8 71,390 56,561 26.2

Tractor sales – Exports 1,026 1,272 (19.3) 3,187 3,020 5.5

Total tractor sales 27,749 23,765 16.8 74,577 59,581 25.2


Exhibit 9: PV segment – Monthly sales trend


(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.050.0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3


MM registered a mixed performance

with automotive sales witnessing a

decline; however, tractor sales posted a

strong growth




July 2, 2013 6

Exhibit 10: Tractor segment – Monthly sales trend


Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto registered lower-than-expected volumes on account of continued

weakness in the domestic motorcycle segment. Total volumes declined

significantly by 14.3% yoy (12.8% mom) to 295,749 units with motorcycle

sales witnessing a decline of 20% yoy (16.5% mom).

While domestic sales reported a sharp decline of 23.5% yoy (22.9% mom) due

to weak demand for motorcycles; exports registered a growth of 3.7% yoy

(7.7% mom) during the month.

Three-wheeler sales posted a strong growth of 53.8% yoy (19.2% mom);

however, it came on a low base of last year.

The company’s Management has indicated that production during the month

was impacted due to the ongoing labor problem at the Chakan plant which

led to a production loss of 20,000-25,000 units.

Exhibit 11: Bajaj Auto – Sales trend

SegmentJune

2013June

2012% chg

YTDFY2014

YTDFY2013

% chg

Total sales 295,749 345,162 (14.3) 979,275 1,078,971 (9.2)

Motorcycles 254,544 318,377 (20.0) 860,151 982,623 (12.5)

Three-wheelers 41,205 26,785 53.8 119,124 96,348 23.6

Exports (included above) 120,399 116,062 3.7 362,563 415,645 (12.8)


(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.040.0

50.0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3


BJAUT reported weak sales led by

weakness in the domestic motorcycle

segment and also due to production

loss at the Chakan plant on account of

labor strike




July 2, 2013 7

Exhibit 12: Motorcycle segment – Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 13: Three-wheeler segment – Monthly sales trend


Hero MotoCorp

Hero MotoCorp posted a 6% yoy (10% mom) decline in volumes to 502,000

units, which was lower than our expectations. Total volumes were impacted by slowdown in demand and also on account of higher dispatches that had

happened in the month of April and May.

Going ahead, the company expects normal monsoon coupled with improving

consumer sentiments to revive growth.

Exhibit 14: Hero MotoCorp – Sales trend

June2013

June2012

% chgYTD

FY2014YTD

FY2013% chg

Total sales 502,000 534,091 (6.0) 1,559,003 1,640,290 (5.0)


(25.0)

(20.0)

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000350,000

400,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

(%)(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS)

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

(%)(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS)

HMCL registered lower-than-expected

volumes; total volumes declined 6% yoy




July 2, 2013 8

Exhibit 15: HMCL – Monthly sales trend


TVS Motor

TVS Motor reported in-line volumes with total volumes registering a decline of

2.7% yoy (flat mom) to 164,128 units.

The company continued its sluggish performance in the two-wheeler segment

(down 4.9% yoy and 1.3% mom) on account of poor demand and increased

competitive activity in the motorcycle (down 3.7% mom) and scooter (up 1.4%

mom; however up 14.6% mom due to base effect) segments.

Three-wheeler sales on the other hand continued with the strong momentum

and posted a growth of 108.2% yoy (16.7% mom) driven by exports.

The overall exports registered a strong growth of 31.9% yoy (6.8% mom)

during the month. The company’s Management expects export volumes to

touch a monthly run-rate of 28,000-30,000 units within the next six months.

Exhibit 16: TVS Motor – Sales trend

SegmentJune

2013June

2012% chg

YTDFY2014

YTDFY2013

% chg

Total sales 164,128 168,693 (2.7) 494,494 519,160 (4.8)

Motorcycles 59,015 61,274 (3.7) 193,470 193,374 0.0

Scooters 38,684 38,166 1.4 102,123 112,832 (9.5)

Mopeds 59,652 65,998 (9.6) 181,606 203,875 (10.9)

Total two-wheelers 157,351 165,438 (4.9) 477,199 510,081 (6.4)

Three-wheelers 6,777 3,255 108.2 17,295 9,079 90.5

Exports (included above) 26,047 19,750 31.9 72,154 64,839 11.3


(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3


TVSL’s performance continues to be

impacted by the on-going slowdown

and rising competition in the industry




July 2, 2013 9

Exhibit 17: Motorcycle segment – Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 18: Scooter segment – Monthly sales trend


(40.0)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

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F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3


(40.0)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1 3





July 2, 2013 10

Outlook

While the near term environment continues to remain challenging for the

automotive sector, we believe the long-term structural growth drivers for the

industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban

consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global

players and easy availability of finance will remain intact. We continue to prefer

stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets

and command superior pricing power. We maintain our positive stance on Ashok

Leyland, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors.

Exhibit 19: Relative valuation and recommendation

Companies Reco.CMP

(`)TP(`)

Sales (` cr) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) FY13-15EEPS CAGR (%)Y14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

AL Buy 20 27 14,038 16,442 19.3 9.0 1.7 1.5 6.2 12.5 6.1 4.3 102.9

BJAUT Accumulate 1,896 2,096 23,005 26,460 16.0 13.6 5.8 4.6 40.4 37.7 11.0 8.9 15.3

HMCL Accumulate 1,659 1,820 25,298 27,665 15.0 11.9 5.5 4.3 39.8 40.7 7.7 6.9 14.9

MSIL Buy 1,561 1,822 47,923 55,002 14.6 12.9 2.2 1.9 16.1 15.8 7.2 6.2 23.8

MM Accumulate 978 1,103 45,254 51,197 16.0 13.9 3.3 2.8 22.7 21.9 8.9 7.3 11.1

TTMT* Buy 284 347 215,016 237,404 7.9 6.9 1.8 1.4 24.6 23.2 3.8 3.2 13.8

TVSL Accumulate 33 35 7,715 8,584 6.6 5.7 1.1 1.0 18.1 18.5 2.3 1.6 15.3

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on July 2, 2013; *Consolidated financials




July 2, 2013 11

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership Angel and its Group companies Angel and its Group companies' Broking relationship

of the stock ownership of the stock Directors ownership of the stock with company covered

Ashok Leyland No No No No

Tata Motors No No No No

Maruti Suzuki No No No No

Mahindra & Mahindra No No No No

Bajaj Auto No No No No

Hero MotoCorp No No No No

TVS Motor No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)




July 2 2013 12

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Research Team

Fundamental:Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected]

Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected]

Bhavesh Chauhan Sr. Analyst (Metals & Mining) [email protected]

Viral Shah Sr. Analyst (Infrastructure) [email protected]

Sharan Lillaney Analyst (Mid-cap) [email protected]

V Srinivasan Analyst (Cement, FMCG) [email protected]

Yaresh Kothari Analyst (Automobile) [email protected]

Ankita Somani Analyst (IT, Telecom) [email protected]

Sourabh Taparia Analyst (Banking) [email protected]

Bhupali Gursale Economist [email protected]

Vinay Rachh Research Associate [email protected]

Amit Patil Research Associate [email protected]

Twinkle Gosar Research Associate [email protected]

Tejashwini Kumari Research Associate [email protected]

Akshay Narang Research Associate [email protected]

Harshal Patkar Research Associate [email protected]

Technicals:

Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]

Sameet Chavan Technical Analyst [email protected]

Sacchitanand Uttekar Technical Analyst [email protected]

Derivatives:

Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected]

Institutional Sales Team:

Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected]

Gaurang Tisani Dealer [email protected]

Akshay Shah Sr. Executive [email protected]

Production Team:

Tejas Vahalia Research Editor [email protected]

Dilip Patel Production Incharge [email protected]

CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 93. Tel: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd: BSE Cash: INB010996539 / BSE F&O: INF010996539, CDSL Regn. No.: IN - DP - CDSL - 234– 2004, PMS Regn. Code: PM/INP000001546, NSE Cash: INB231279838 /NSE F&O: INF231279838 / NSE Currency: INE231279838, MCX Stock Exchange Ltd: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500. Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd.: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn. No.: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn. No.: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302.

Auto Sector Update, June 2013

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Transcript of Auto Sector Update, June 2013