Angel-Auto-Sector Update December 2010 - 040111

8/6/2019 Angel-Auto-Sector Update December 2010 - 040111

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Automakers reported strong sales performance in December 2010 despite it

traditionally being a sluggish month. After witnessing slightly lower growth in

November 2010, volumes regained momentum owing to attractive year-end

discounts and advanced purchases in anticipation of price hikes in January 2011.

While Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Hero Honda (HH) reported better-than-

expected sales volume during the month, Bajaj Auto (BAL) reported marginally

below expectations performance. Overall, sales maintained the strong

momentum during the month albeit at a slower pace, largely aided by healthy

economic growth, positive consumer sentiment and easy financing.

Tata Motors (TML) reported a healthy 30.6% yoy growth in total volumes in

December 2010, in line with our estimates and led by the 27.9% yoy growth in

domestic vehicle sales and 68.2% yoy growth in export sales. The PV segment,

which was impacted by the decline in Nano and Indica sales in November 2010,

posted 34.5% yoy growth in December 2010 to 20,502 units (15,239). Nano

volumes rose 60% yoy to 5,784 units, as the company more than doubled the

warranty period and offered easier financing terms to boost sales. The

commercial vehicles (CV) segment posted 29% yoy growth during the month on

account of the 39.6% yoy growth in LCV sales and 16.4% yoy growth in M&HCV

sales. The Ace clutch recorded the highest-ever sales during the month.

Maruti Suzuki (Maruti) registered a 17% yoy growth in volumes to 99,225 units

(84,804) led by the 26% yoy jump in domestic volumes to 89,469 units (71,000).

Exports during the month fell 29.3% yoy to 9,756 units (13,804). Maruti

maintained its growth momentum in the A2, A3 and C segments, posting 23.5%,

19.4% and 67.5% yoy growth respectively, in December 2010. Overall, volume

growth during the month was restricted on account of the six-day plant shut down

for maintenance purposes.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) reported a robust 38.3% yoy growth in total sales

which came in marginally ahead of our estimates. Growth was aided by 41.9%

and 31.3% yoy growth in the automotive and farm equipment segments,

respectively. Within the automotive segment, the four-wheeler pick-up segment

grew by a strong 46.6% yoy on the back of robust performance by the GIO and

Maxximo. Passenger UV sales grew by a healthy 23.5% yoy, while Logan sales

continued its strong performance, spiking 190.9% yoy. The farm equipment

segment’s growth was supported by healthy performance on the domestic (up

31.4% yoy) as well as exports fronts (up 30% yoy).

Two and three-wheelers: Bajaj Auto (BAL) reported a marginally lower-than-

expected growth in sales at 9.8% yoy, with motorcycle sales moving up 10.8% yoy

and three-wheeler sales posting 4.9% yoy growth. Hero Honda (HH) registered a

better-than-expected 33.3% yoy growth in sales volume, selling 501,111 units

(375,838) led by a refreshed product range and new launches. TVS Motor (TVS)

reported a strong 42.1% yoy growth in sales, which was in line with our estimates

and led by the 93.8% yoy growth in scooter sales and 34.1% yoy growth in

mopeds sales.

Auto Sector

Momentum continues

Monthly Update | December 2010

January 4, 2011

Vaishali Jajoo

+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 344

[email protected]

Yaresh Kothari

+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 313

[email protected]



Auto Sector Update | December 2010

January 4, 2011 2

Tata Motors

TML reported a robust 30.6% yoy growth in sales to 67,441 units (51,627) led

by a strong performance in the CV and PV segment.

The CV segment recorded a strong 29% yoy growth, in line with our estimates,

aided by the M&HCV and LCV segments, which posted their highest ever sales

growing by 16.4% and 39.6% yoy, respectively.

The PV segment rebounded strongly with a 34.5% yoy growth as Nano

volumes revived during the month registering 60% yoy growth to 5,784 units

(509 in November 2010).

Nano volumes benefitted with the company more than doubled the warranty

period and offered easier financing terms to the customers.

The Indigo and Indica range of cars reported 2.5% and 40.1% yoy growthrespectively, during the month.

The company has announced price increases in some of its passenger vehicles

and all commercial vehicles due to the rise in input costs.

Exhibit 1: Tata Motors - Sales trend

December YTD

Segment 2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg

Total Sales 67,441 51,627 30.6 566,936 432,629 31.0

M&HCV 19,400 16,664 16.4 149,616 110,416 35.5

LCV 27,539 19,724 39.6 201,786 163,648 23.3

Total Commercial Vehicles 46,939 36,388 29.0 351,402 274,064 28.2

Utility Vehicles 2,876 1,807 59.2 29,019 22,518 28.9

Cars 17,626 13,432 31.2 186,515 136,047 37.1

Total Passenger Vehicles 20,502 15,239 34.5 215,534 158,565 35.9

Export (Included above) 5,809 3,454 68.2 42,660 23,522 81.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: CV segment - Monthly sales trend


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(%)(units) Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

TML’s volumes grew 30.6% yoy; Nano

volumes up 60% yoy, M&HCV and LCV

posted highest-ever sales




January 4, 2011 3

Exhibit 3: PV segment - Monthly sales trend


Maruti Suzuki

Maruti registered a 17% yoy growth in volumes to 99,225 units (84,804) as

plant shut down (6 days) due to maintenance restricted the volume growth.

The company registered a 26% yoy increase in domestic sales volume, while

exports continued to witness negative growth and fell 29.3% yoy.

The A2 segment grew 23.5% yoy, while sales of the C segment increased by a

substantial 67.5% yoy on the back of encouraging numbers from Eeco. The A3

segment posted 19.4% yoy growth.

B segment sales registered a marginal 4.2% yoy growth.

Exhibit 4: Maruti Suzuki - Sales trend

December YTD


Total Sales 99,225 84,804 17.0 927,665 730,943 26.9

A1 M800 1,798 2,574 (30.1) 18,982 24,594 (22.8)

C Omni, Versa, Eeco 13,547 8,088 67.5 118,729 68,859 72.4

A2 Alto, WagonR, Zen, Swift, A-Star, Ritz 64,492 52,236 23.5 585,523 459,507 27.4

A3 SX4, D-zire 9,362 7,843 19.4 92,418 69,613 32.8

Total Domestic Passenger Cars 89,199 70,741 26.1 815,652 622,573 31.0

B: MUV’s Gypsy, Grand Vitara 270 259 4.2 4,698 2,835 65.7

Total Domestic Passenger Vehicles 89,469 71,000 26.0 820,350 625,408 31.2

Exports 9,756 13,804 (29.3) 107,315 105,535 1.7


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Maruti reported 17% yoy growth;

domestic sales remain robust, planned

maintenance shut down restricted

growth




January 4, 2011 4

Exhibit 5: PV segment - Monthly sales trend


Mahindra & Mahindra

M&M posted marginally better than expected monthly sales growth of 38.3%

yoy to 50,396 units (36,440).

The tractor segment grew by a strong 31.3% yoy, with domestic tractor sales

up by 31.4% yoy. Tractor exports registered 30% yoy growth. The tractor sales

are benefitting from the easing supply constraints.

The automotive segment grew by a robust 41.9% yoy on account of strong

sales performance by the Logan, four-wheeler pick-up and three-wheelersegments. Logan continues to witness strong growth momentum and

registered 190.9% yoy growth albeit on a low base. The four-wheeler pick-up

segment grew by a healthy 46.6%.

M&M is considering an increase in prices of its vehicles by ~1% across all

products to battle rising raw material costs, especially steel and rubber.

Exhibit 6: Mahindra & Mahindra - Sales trend

December YTD


Total Sales 50,396 36,440 38.3 423,710 336,209 26.0Passenger Utility Vehicles 14,705 11,904 23.5 122,527 109,212 12.2

Four-wheel pick up (GIO + Maxximo) 10,161 6,933 46.6 73,972 49,002 51.0

LCV 856 700 22.3 8,275 7,188 15.1

Logan 896 308 190.9 6,720 3,889 72.8

Three-wheelers 5,928 2,909 103.8 44,471 31,910 39.4

Exports 1,516 1,247 21.6 13,480 7,338 83.7

Total Automotive Sales 34,062 24,001 41.9 269,445 208,539 29.2

Domestic Tractor Sales 15,135 11,517 31.4 145,493 121,528 19.7

Exports Tractor Sales 1,199 922 30.0 8,772 6,142 42.8

Total Tractor Sales 16,334 12,439 31.3 154,265 127,670 20.8


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M&M reported marginally better than

expected growth, automotive sales

increased 41.9% yoy, while tractor sales

grew 31.3% yoy




January 4, 2011 5

Exhibit 7: UV segment - Monthly sales trend

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: UV + Four-wheel pick up combined from Sep 2010

Exhibit 8: Tractor segment - Monthly sales trend


Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto reported marginally lower-than-expected overall sales growth of

9.8% yoy to 276,803 units (252,004) for the month.

The motorcycle segment posted a modest 10.8% yoy growth, though on a

mom basis, volumes fell by 8.1%. Pulsar and Discover accounted for 70% of

the motorcycle sales during December 2010.

The three-wheeler segment recorded a 4.9% yoy growth to 33,128 units

(31,575). On a mom basis, sales fell 3.1%.

Exports registered a growth of 4.4%, however, it continues to see logistical

constraints which are impacting growth.

Going forward, management expects the monthly run rate to touch 300,000

units.

BAL has raised prices of its products by up to ` 1,000 with effect from

January 1, 2011 to mitigate the rising input costs.

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BAL reports marginally lower-than-

expected numbers, volumes down 8.1%mom




January 4, 2011 6

Exhibit 9: Bajaj Auto - Sales trend

December YTD

Segment 2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chgTotal Sales 276,803 252,004 9.8 2,875,734 2,043,703 40.7

Motorcycles 243,675 219,920 10.8 2,550,350 1,794,455 42.1

Scooters - 509 - 27 4,593 (99.4)

Total 2-Wheelers 243,675 220,429 10.5 2,550,377 1,799,048 41.8

Three-Wheelers 33,128 31,575 4.9 325,357 244,655 33.0

Export (included above) 95,388 91,369 4.4 927,875 676,627 37.1


Exhibit 10: Motorcycle segment- Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 11: Three-wheeler segment - Monthly sales trend


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(%)(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS)




January 4, 2011 7

Hero Honda

HH sold 501,111 units (375,838) during the month, registering a better-than-

expected growth of 33.3% yoy. On a mom basis, volumes were up 18.9%.

Refreshed product ranges, new product launches and innovative branding and

marketing initiatives continue to drive the company’s performance on the

volume front.

New Super Splendor and Splendor Pro launched in September 2010 also

helped the company in posting better volumes.

The company has increased prices by ` 500-1,500 in the domestic market for

its various models to counter the input cost pressures.

Exhibit 12: Hero Honda - Sales trend

December YTD2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg

Total Sales 501,111 375,838 33.3 3,948,013 3,413,594 15.7


Exhibit 13: Two-wheeler segment - Monthly sales trend


TVS Motor TVS Motor reported a strong 42.1% yoy growth in volumes to 171,859 units

(120,913) led by the substantial increase in domestic sales.

Domestic sales grew by a robust 47.4% yoy to 152,857 units (103,691), while

exports reported a 10.3% yoy growth.

The scooter segment recorded an impressive 93.8% yoy growth to 41,804

units (21,566).

The motorcycle segment grew 23.9% yoy to 61,404 units (49,560).

Three-wheeler sales continue to see strong momentum, and registered arobust 188.8% yoy growth in sales to 3,500 units (1,212).

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HH volumes increased by a robust

33.3% yoy and 18.9% mom

TVS Motor reported strong 42.1% yoy

growth, Scooter and three-wheeler

segment registered impressive growth




January 4, 2011 8

Exhibit 14: TVS Motor - Sales trend

December YTD

Segment / Model 2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg

Total Sales 171,859 120,913 42.1 1,512,959 1,117,737 35.4Motorcycles 61,404 49,560 23.9 617,996 458,726 34.7

Scooters 41,804 21,566 93.8 342,538 228,471 49.9

Mopeds 65,151 48,575 34.1 524,562 421,947 24.3

Total 2-Wheelers 168,359 119,701 40.6 1,485,096 1,109,144 33.9

Export (Included above) 19,002 17,222 10.3 163,898 110,132 48.8

Three-Wheelers 3,500 1,212 188.8 27,863 8,593 224.3


Exhibit 15: Scooter segment - Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 16: Motorcycle segment- Monthly sales trend


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January 4, 2011 9

Outlook

We remain positive on the Indian auto sector. Overall, we estimate auto volumes

to register ~13% CAGR over FY2010–12, aided by the improved businessenvironment for the sector. Over the long term, comparatively low penetration

levels, a healthy economic environment and favourable demographics supported

by higher per-capita income levels are likely to help the auto companies in

sustaining their top-line growth. However, increased input costs and interest rates

are the anticipated headwinds that could affect the sector’s volume and earnings

growth. We expect rising input costs to restrict profitability, despite having a

positive view on demand. We prefer stocks where strong and improving

fundamentals could deliver positive earnings surprises. We continue to prefer

companies in the four-wheeler space over the two-wheelers considering

reasonable valuations and volume growth visibility.

Exhibit 17: Relative valuation and recommendation

Companies Reco.CMP

(`)TP(`)

Sales (`cr) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) FY10-12EEPS CAGR

(%)Y11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E

Ashok Leyland Accumulate 67 73 9,794 11,492 16.5 13.0 3.5 3.1 14.3 16.9 10.7 9.2 34.3

Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,431 1,592 16,593 19,281 16.3 14.4 11.8 8.9 78.9 70.8 10.5 9.2 30.0

Hero Honda Neutral 1,975 - 17,919 19,806 19.6 17.9 9.7 8.5 53.4 50.6 14.8 13.2 3.0

Maruti Buy 1,429 1,654 35,081 41,308 17.2 13.8 2.8 2.4 18.0 16.6 9.6 7.2 11.2

M&M Accumulate 780 827 22,196 25,858 18.8 16.5 4.8 4.0 25.7 24.7 12.5 10.5 16.4

Tata Motors Accumulate 1,301 1,458 113,777 129,612 9.9 8.1 5.6 3.5 70.8 53.1 6.8 5.3 197.7

TVS Motor Accumulate 72 76 6,197 7,011 16.1 12.2 3.8 3.5 23.9 29.4 9.2 7.0 58.1

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as of January 4, 2010




January 4, 2011 10

Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should makesuch investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies

referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and

risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliablesources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as thisdocument is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report .

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Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership Angel and its Group companies Angel and its Group companies' Broking relationship

of the stock ownership of the stock Directors ownership of the stock with company covered

Ashok Leyland No No No No

Tata Motors Yes No No No

Maruti Suzuki Yes No No No

Mahindra & Mahindra Yes No No No

Bajaj Auto No No No No

Hero Honda No No No No

TVS Motor No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce -5% to 15% Sell < -15%




January 4, 2011 11

Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.

Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Research Team

Fundamental:

Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected]

Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected]

Vaishali Jajoo Automobile [email protected]

Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure [email protected]

Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power [email protected]

Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping [email protected]

Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap [email protected]

Paresh Jain Metals & Mining [email protected]

John Perinchery Capital Goods [email protected]

Srishti Anand IT, Telecom [email protected]

Vinay Nair Oil & Gas [email protected]

Jai Sharda Mid-cap [email protected]

Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap [email protected] Mody Mid-cap [email protected]

Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) [email protected]

V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) [email protected]

Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) [email protected]

Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) [email protected]

Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) [email protected]

Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) [email protected]

Shrinivas Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) [email protected]

Sreekanth P.V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) [email protected]

Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) [email protected]

Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) [email protected]

Ankita Somani Research Associate (IT, Telecom) [email protected]

Varun Varma Research Associate (Banking) [email protected]

Vasant Lohiya Research Associate (Banking) [email protected]

Technicals:

Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]

Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst [email protected]

Derivatives:

Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected]

Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst [email protected]

Institutional Sales Team:

Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

Pranav Modi Sr. Manager [email protected]

Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager [email protected]

Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer [email protected]

Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected]

Gaurang Tisani Dealer [email protected]

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Bharathi Shetty Research Editor [email protected]

Simran Kaur Research Editor [email protected]

Bharat Patil Production [email protected]

Dilip Patel Production [email protected]

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Angel-Auto-Sector Update December 2010 - 040111

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