Australia’s Electricity Revolution

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Powering the world’s largest island…

In the Disruption Generation…

2050 Scenarios x 4

Exploring EA/CSIRO opportunities

Set and forget Leaving the grid

Rise of the ‘Prosumer’ Renewables thrive

Broadly speaking...

We are witnessing a radical transformation of our whole

approach to electricity...

• From a centralised, analogue and fossil-fuel driven power

delivery system where customers have few choices

• To a decentralised, digitised and low-carbon electron

transaction system where customers have almost infinite

choice

And where the home, business and precinct become

core elements of this new energy system

Exploring EA/CSIRO opportunities

Australians will invest $1,000 billion (totex) in customer-side and grid-side systems to 2050

Power Electronics

Energy Storage

Electric Vehicles

Distributed RE Generation

Distributed FF Generation

Demand Management & Load Matching

Microgrids & Virtual Power Plants

A Future of Millions of Distributed Energy Resources

Today’s Electricity Grid

Copyright CSIRO 2015

Evolving Future Grid

Copyright CSIRO 2015

Stage 2 Overview 07 September 2016

John Phillpotts – Program Manager

Seven reflections from the Future Grid Forum of 2012/13

1. Network-centric → Customer-centric

2. Centralised → Hybrid/Decentralised

3. Fossil fuel generation → Continuous decarbonisation and greater intermittency

4. Regulated natural monopoly → Increasing exposure to competition

5. 20 – 50% of electricity generated locally by 2050

6. Under every scenario the electricity grid continues to play a critical (but evolved) role in 2050

7. 2015-25 decade characterised by profound transition

Australia’s electricity systems in 2027 are resilient to divergent futures and characterized by:

The ‘balanced scorecard’ of long-term customer and societal value creation;

Whole-of-system efficiency, reliability and safety; and,

Millions of end-users participating in and sharing the benefits of whole-of-system optimisation through open, vibrant markets and appropriate protections.

Roadmap Outcome

The 2017-27 Roadmap will concisely set out:

An integrated set of ‘no regrets’ actions spanning all Domains (or ‘swim lanes’);

The sequence, interrelationships and milestones for actions across the decade; and,

Nominated primary and secondary responsibilities for each action.

Roadmap Structure / Inclusions

Program orientation: Human-centred design, Whole-of-system optimisation and Balanced Scorecard outcomes.

Shared long-term scenarios inform strategic design of the Roadmap ‘from the future back to the present’

The process maximises a diversity of expert perspectives in the development of transformation pathways

Pathway options are then objectively evaluated through detailed quantitative analysis

Design Process maximises Collaboration

Domains & Work Packages

• Transformation Drivers

• FGF Update

• Customer Reorientation

A. Customer Orientated Networks (WP 1 & 2)

• Business Models

• Regulatory Frameworks – Risk Sharing; Scope of Service; Customer Protection

B. Revenue and Regulatory Enablers (WP 3 & 4)

• Cost-Reflective Pricing

• “Second Wave” Incentives

• Value of New services including Micro-grids, Ancillary Services

C. Pricing and Incentives (WP 5)

• Standards, operating platforms

• Advanced Power System Operations, Reliability and Security

• Grid-side technologies and innovation

• Future Workforce requirements

D. Technological Enablers (WP 6 – 8)

• Transactive Energy models

• Institutional frameworks

E. Next Generation Platform (WP 9)

Value Network driven business models

Customer & Distribution Grid Evolution

Functions & Markets will evolve over time as customer adoption of

DER grows and the opportunity to enable the net value created

3 Stages of Evolution as DER Adoption Grows & Market Opportunities Expand

Identify the actions and measures that highlight the incremental and transformational options enabling connection of distributed generation and demand side services for customers whilst maximising system benefits and improving network operations.

This knowledge will be used to identify a sound common vision of a preferred ‘end-state’ and the appropriate long-term pathways and mechanisms for the evolution of the physical grid required to get there by 2027.

Transforming Grid Capabilities & Technologies

• Determine what the impact of emerging technologies will be on the workforce between the 2017-2027 decade;

• Assess what the digitalisation of the industry will mean for its workforce during the 2017-2027 decade;

• Identify critical skills and occupations that will become more prominent within the 2017-2027 decade;

• Identify what workforce critical skill gaps and training requirements will need to be addressed to ensure that the Australian public are provided with electricity in a safe and reliable manner

• Provide recommendations to enable sustainable pathways for workforce skills development that are adaptive in a timely way to technical and societal changes. These pathways will deliver a competent workforce, responsible for a successful electricity sector transformation, providing the Australian consumer with a reliable and safe supply of electricity which meets greater and changing consumer demands.

A changing Industry, A changing workforce

Some thoughts on Skills & Career Transformations

Collaboration

Strategic Partnerships for real innovation

Diverse & Mutli-disciplinary teams / skills

Personal & Professional Change and ongoing adaptation

becoming the norm

Digitial Capability

Energy Flagship Paul Graham

Chief Economist

t +61 2 4960 6061 e paul.graham@csiro.au w www.csiro.au/energy

ENERGY FLAGSHIP

Thank you Energy Flagship

Alex Wonhas

Flagship Director

t +61 2 9490 5059 e alex.wonhas@csiro.au w www.csiro.au/energy

Energy Flagship Mark Paterson

FGF Chair

t +61 4 5984 1006 e mark.paterson@csiro.au w www.csiro.au/energy