From centralised coal to decentralised renewable

energy with biomass and gas as transition

resources

- a challenging transition for Poland Grzegorz Wiśniewski

Institute for Renewable Energy, Warsaw, Poland gwisniewski@ieo.pl

Role of coal in electricity generation in the EU

Feuels mix (%)source: Eurostat

EU-27 average 30%

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Individual biomass boilers Transport fuels Electricity Heat, without individual biomass boiler

Structure of final renewable energy consumption in Poland in 2000-2010 -the role of bioenergy

Electricity generation from RES in Poland, 2001-2010

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GWh

hydro wind biogas biomass co-firing

2010 TARGET ~11,6 TWh

biomass co-firing with the fine coal in power plants dominating the green electricity mix (45%)

Appetite for additional (after 2010) biomass/arable land in the national Renewable Energy Action Plans up to 2020on average 13% of arable land for energy purposes?

EU-27 RES mix ‘2007

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Efficiency

Ocean Energy

Solar Thermal

PV

Geothermal

Wind

Hydro

Biomass

Gas&oil

Coal

Nuclear

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Primarily energy demand by 2050

Reference/current official scenario – „business as usual”

Alternative scenario –clean energy

RES-Electricity forecast for PolandCurrent policy &Energy [R]evolution Scenario

(IEO & DLR for Greenpeace Poland ‘2008

General assumption: reduction of CO2 emission per capita form 9 ton/ca in ‘2005 to 2,5 ton/ca in ‘2050

Wind+efficiency+gas

Coal +nuclear

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Ocean Energy

Solar Thermal

PV

Geothermal

Wind

Hydro

Biomass

Gas&oil

Coal

Nuclear

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Green investment in Poland by 2020Source: Polish National Renewable Action Plan up to 2020 (NREAP’2010, IEO assessment ‘2011)

RES specific investment cost [mln Euro/MW]

Euro 26 bln for smart investment ≠ „just cost”

Overused of biomass, PV and geothermal grid parity after 2020

wind supported by gas (including shell gas) as solution ?

• On-shore wind farms as alternative to biomass co-firing

• Challenge: grid connection• Small wind turbines as input or smart grids, starting

from rural areal/farmers• Challenge: access to the grid and lack of

technologies• Off-shore wind farms as alternative to nuclear

• Challenge: competition with the nuclear option supported so far by state policy

Does the wind resources (supported by green energy mix) can deliver energy for the industry, cities and rural areal?

Energy consumption for agricultural production; electricity consumption, prices and growth in Poland/regions

The energy consumption in agricultural sector in Poland increased significantly (over 30% per year)

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Energy price (PLN/MWh)

Electricity prices for farmers [PLZ/kWh], 1€≈4 PLZ

Costs of energy supply in households and agricultural

households in Poland

Energy prices for (small) consumers in rural areas growing faster then in other sectors and costs of energy supply on farms (agricultural households) increase faster than in other households=> On shore wind farms can increase the income (leasing land) & small wind turbines can reduce the spendings for electricity from the grid

www.ieo.pl

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Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Russ ia

Sweden

Installations until 2020 Installations 2020-2030

Offshore wind energy market potential on Baltic Sea, 2030 (source: EU OffshoreGrid project)

•Significant potential of Sweden and Poland, possible to utilize after 2020

„How many roads must a man walk downBefore you call him a man? (…)

How many years can a mountain existBefore it’s washed to the sea?…

The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the windThe answer is blowin’ in the wind”

By Bob Dylan, Copyright © 1962 by Warner Bros

Challenging and time demanding energy transition - Bob Dylan song instead of concussion: