August2011 1

CSA

A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from

Rockets & MissilesISMOR 2011

Maj. Barak Corem

Center of System Analysis

Planning Division

IDF

August2011 2

CSA

Contents

Background

Motivation

Study Questions

Scope

The Method

Numerical Example

Method’s Limitation

Summary

August2011 3

CSA

BackgroundWW-II

The battle on London

The blitz

57 continuous bombing days

43,000 casualties

1,000,000 destroyed buildings

V1/V2 attacks

11,500 launches

9,000 casualties

200 Al-Hussein & SCUD Missiles

700 casualties

Iran-Iraq War

“War of the Cities”

300 air strikes

20,000-50,000 casualties

WW-II

Attacks on Berlin

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 4

CSA

BackgroundDesert Storm 1991

39 Al-Hussein Missiles (SCUD) were launched at Israel

10,000 Apartments suffered damage

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 5

CSA

2nd Lebanon War 2006 ~4,000 rockets were fired at Israel

Hundreds of apartments were damaged

About 40 civilian casualties

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 6

CSA

Motivation for the Analysis

Hezbollah & Hamas Massive ArmingCivilians are targeted

Israel Protected Rooms / Shelters

Advanced Warning Systems

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 7

CSA

Study Questions

How many apartments are expected to suffer damage in a future war?

Estimation of structural damage

Home Front Command preparations

How many casualties are expected in a future war?

Deployment of missile defense assets

HMS Preparations

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 8

CSA

Scope of the Analysis

Conventional rockets & missiles, not NBC weapons

Civilian damage only

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 9

CSA

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

Civilian Damage Assessment MethodThreat to Civilian

Targets

Construction &

Population

Characteristic

Number of Damaged Apartments &

Casualties

Intelligence

estimation

Damage from Single Rocket/Missile

Intelligence

Warhead Testing

Population Behavior

Civilian Database

Ammunition

SpecificationsAnalysis

August2011 10

CSA

Threat to Civilian

Remaining

Threat

Initial

Threat

Legend

Enemy Capabilities

Offensive Achievements

Interception

Remaining Threat

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 11

CSA

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

Construction DataBuilding-level statistics

Built Area (sq. km)

Density (buildings / sq. km)

Height (m)

Apartment-level statisticsArea (sq. m)

Volume (cubic m)

August2011 12

CSA

Weapon Damage Criteria

HeavyMediumMinor

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 13

CSA

Explosion on the Roof (illustration)

Explosion point

volume of the damage

Upper half - no damage

Affected apartments

Affected volume* Buildings density

Apartment volumeNo. of affected apartments=

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 14

CSA

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

Raw damage estimate(Accuracy( X)population density)

Crisis factorsSelf evacuation

Reserve forces mobilization

Population Density

August2011 15

CSA

Illustration of Density Calculation

High “average density”

Medium “average density”

Low “average density”

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

Medium “average

density ”

August2011 16

CSA

Weapon Damage Illustration (Affected Area per Weapon)

Missile B Missile A Rocket B Rocket AProtection

Status

5 3 0.4 0.2 Street

3 2 0.3 0.15 Building

1.5 1 0.2 0.1 Concrete Room

1 0.5 0.1 0.05 Shelter

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 17

CSA

Population Behavior (Protection)

Distribution of People Protection Status

0%4 Building

30% Concrete Room

20% Shelter

10% Street

 100% Sum

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 18

CSACasualties from Single

Rocket/Missile

Casualties from Single Rocket/Missile

Average Density

Ammunition Damage

 Distribution of People

Protection Status

2.4

3

2 0%4 Building

0.9 1 30% Concrete Room

0.3 0.5 20% Shelter

0.9 3 10% Street

4.5 Expected casualties by single rocket/missile

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

August2011 19

CSA

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background

High variance between hits (a few extreme events might cause a large proportion of the casualties)

High levels of uncertainty:Population Obedience

Opponent Strategy

Method’s Limitation

August2011 20

CSA

A method for civilian damage assessment was presented

Apartment damage

Casualties

Method applicationsPrioritization of missile defense asset deployment

Interception policy

Defense systems build-up

Home front command units deployment

Preparation of the civil authorities

Summary

SummaryMethod’s Limitation

Numerical Example

The Method ScopeStudy

QuestionsMotivation Background