August 2011 Atlas of Giving Report - Showing giving trends through July 2011

8/4/2019 August 2011 Atlas of Giving Report - Showing giving trends through July 2011

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a t lasofg iv ing .com 877.414.0078 Page 1

2011 ATLAS of Giving, 1.877.414.0078.This material is provided for the intended the ATLAS of GIVING,Pat. Pend., member on ly. Distribution of t his information without express written permission is prohibited.The ATLAS of Giving forecasts are provided for informational purposes only. ATLAS of Giving disclaimsany an d a ll warranties, wh ether e xpress or implied, i ncluding ( without lim itation) any w arranties o fapplication for a specific purpose. Forecasts are updated monthly. Current m onth forecasts represent a+/-4% margin of error, increasing as projection lead time increases.

july 2011 report


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i n f o @ a t l a so f g iv in g .c o m 877 .414 .0078 ju ly 2011 repor t page 2

2011 ATLAS of Giving, 877.414.0078.This material is provided for the intended the ATLAS of GIVING, Pat. Pend., member only. Dis tribution of this inf ormation without express written permission is prohibi ted. T he ATLAS o f Giving forecasts areprovided for inf ormational purposes on ly. ATLAS of G iving disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or im plied,including (without limitation) any warranties of application for a specific purp ose. Forecasts are updated monthly. Currentmonth forecasts represent a +/-4% margin of error, increasing as projection lead time increases.

introduction

Wh a t i s t h e A t l a s o f G i v i n g ?

The Atlas of Giving is the economic intelligence tool for charitable giving.

Forecasts charitable giving in the U.S. for up to 12 months (updated monthly) Measures charitable giving monthly Analyzes the impact of current events on charitable giving

The Atlas of Giving is the definitive measurement of charitable giving in the United States. It is a precisemathematical formula (algorithm) that relies on specific, defined economic and demographic input factors. The

formula accurately matches published giving data for the last 42 years. It's coefficient of correlation to pastpublished data is 99.5%. Because the factors included in the algorithm are documented and reported monthly, theAtlas of Giving is able to use that data to measure charitable giving monthly and does not need to rely on surveysor delayed segment reporting data.

The algorithm accurately accounts for changing economic conditions, demographic trends, natural disasters andsignificant national and world events.

Wh a t a r e t h e p r a c t i c a l b e n e f i ts o f t h e A t l a s o f G i v in g ?

Raise more money with better information to plan by.

Adjust spending and promotion to forecasted giving conditions. Compare fundraising results to a monthly benchmark. Create more effective and efficient budgets. Trend analysis. Evaluate Chapter/Unit/Region results now. Evaluate staff performance today. Evaluate promotion results immediately. Gain a competitive fund raising edge with information that others do not have. Make your organization more effective and efficient. Monitor effects of policy changes on charitable giving. Refine existing models/forecasts with additional information. Build new models/forecasts based on Atlas of Giving data.

Learn more in faqs on page 12.


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How m uc h m oney will YOUra ise next q ua rter next ye a r?

The same methods that were used to create the Atlas of Giving canbe employed to identify a unique forecasting algorithm that isspecifically tailored to an individual nonprofit. Your organizationsgiving history and other information is used with economic anddemographic variables to develop a custom revenue model. The

Atlas Custom forecasting tool creates efficiencies and opportunitiesthat have never before been available

Schedule fundraising activities andcampaigns to maximize their potential

Plan budgets with more precision than ever Realize exponential return on investment

Ca l l or em a i l tod a y for m ore informa t ion .

1-877-414-0078info@a tla so fg iving .c o m

custom


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introduction

contentsn a t i o n w id e g i v i n g

results & trends page 6

calendar year to date month resul ts & t rends

monthly resul ts & t rends

3 month resul ts & t rends



forecast page 7

ca lendar yea r fo recas t

monthly forecas t

3 month forecas t

6 month forecas t

12 month forecas t

a n a l y s i s page 9

m o d e l c a l c u l a t io n s page 11

f a q s page 12

c o n ta c t us page 14

F ro m t i me t o t i me , r ep o r t ed eco n o mi c v a r i ab l es a r e r ev i sed b y t h erep o r t i n g en t i t y. I n cases wh ere v a r i ab l es r e l a t ed t o T h e AT L AS o f Gi v i n g d at a a r e r ev i sed , o u r f i g u res wi l l b e u p d a t ed t o r e f l ec t t h e mo s t cu r r en tr ep o r t ed d a t a .


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i n f o @a t l a so f g i v in g . c o m 8 7 7 .4 1 4 .0 0 7 8 j u l y 2 0 11 re p o r t p a g e 6

2011 ATLASof G iving, 877.414.0078.This ma terial is prov ided for the inte nd ed the A TLASof GIVING, Pat. Pend ., mem be ronly. Distributio n of this informa tion with out e xpress writte n pe rmission is proh ibited . The ATLAS of Giving forec asts areprovided for informationa l purposes only. ATLAS of G iving d isclaims any a nd all wa rranties, whether e xpress or imp lied ,including (without limitation) any warranties of application for a specific purpose. Forecasts are updated monthly. Currentmo nth forec asts represent a +/-4% ma rgin of error, increasing a s projec tion lead time inc reases.

results & trends

2010 2011

$185.90 $204.02

CALENDAR YEAR TO DATE TREND ($ BILLIONS)

results & trendsNationwide giving decreased 0.8% in July versus last month, foran approximate total of $28.89 billion contributed to charitableorganizations. Year to date giving has increased 9.7% versus lastyear. Giving has been strong this year, even with a decline last month.

MonthlyGiving

($ Billions)

August2009 to

July 2010

August2010 to

July 2011

% ChangeVersus

Last Year

August $25.08 $26.62 6.1%

September $25.31 $27.24 7.6%

October $25.47 $27.66 8.6%

November $26.09 $27.82 6.6%

December $26.22 $28.18 7.5%

January $26.18 $28.65 9.4%

February $26.27 $28.99 10.4%

March $26.80 $29.12 8.7%

April $27.06 $29.72 9.8%

May $26.48 $29.53 11.5%

June $26.22 $29.12 11.1%

July $26.89 $28.89 7.4%

Total $314.07 $341.54 8.7%

Up9.7%

Down0.8%

Up10.0%

Up9.8%

p a st 1 2 m o n t h s

p a st 6 m o n t h s

p a st 3 m o n t h s

p a st m o n t h

c a l e n d a r y td

Up8.7%


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i n f o @a t l a so f g i v in g . c o m 8 7 7 .4 1 4 .0 0 7 8 j u l y 2 0 11 re p o r t p a g e 7

2011 ATLASof G iving, 877.414.0078.This ma terial is prov ided for the inte nd ed the A TLASof GIVING, Pat. Pend ., mem be ronly. Distributio n of this informa tion with out e xpress writte n pe rmission is proh ibited . The ATLAS of Giving forec asts areprovided for informationa l purposes only. ATLAS of G iving d isclaims any a nd all wa rranties, whether e xpress or imp lied ,including (without limitation) any warranties of application for a specific purpose. Forecasts are updated monthly. Currentmo nth forec asts represent a +/-4% ma rgin of error, increasing a s projec tion lead time inc reases.

forecast

2010 2011

$323.42 $344.53

CALENDAR YEAR COMPARISON ($ BILLIONS)

forecastNationwide giving is expected to decrease 2.6% in August versuslast month, totaling $28.13 billion that will be contributed to charitableorganizations. Cumulative giving for the calendar year 2011 willincrease 6.5% versus 2010 to $344.53 Billion.

MonthlyGiving

($ Billions)

August2010 to

July 2011

August2011 to

July 2012

% ChangeVersus

Last Year

August $26.62 $28.13 5.7%

September $27.24 $27.96 2.6%

October $27.66 $28.38 2.6%

November $27.82 $28.16 1.2%

December $28.18 $27.88 -1.1%

January $28.65 $27.73 -3.2%

February $28.99 $27.58 -4.9%

March $29.12 $27.68 -4.9%

April $29.72 $28.00 -5.8%

May $29.53 $28.42 -3.8%

June $29.12 $28.81 -1.1%July $28.89 $29.32 1.5%

Total $341.54 $338.05 -1.0%

Up6.5%

Down2.6%

Up3.6%

Up1.2%

Down1.0% 1 2 m o n t h f o r e c a st

6 m o n t h f o r e c a s t

3 m o n t h f o re c a s t

n e x t m o n t h f o re c a s t

c a l e n d a r y e a r f o re c a st


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Raise more

money now.Meet short-term revenue goals

Improve donor retention

Open new revenue sources

Expand existing income streams

Contact us today to get GUARANTEED results.If we dont produce, you dont pay. Its that simple.

877-414-0078 | philanthromax.com


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analysis

analysis

the economy

The economy is the greatest contributing factor to U.S. charitable giving. Generally speaking, good economicnews translates into good charitable giving news and bad economic news means bad things for charitable giving.

The stock market slipped for the second consecutive month in July down 2.05% from June. However,year-to-date, the Dow Average is still up 6.36%. Stock market values have the greatest impact oncorporate grants, foundation grants, bequests, and major gifts from individuals.

Leading Economic Indicators were up modestly in July. This is good news for future giving. It indicatesthat a double dip recession is unlikely to begin before year end.

Unemployment was down very slightly in July to 9.1%. Unemployment is a major contributing factor incharitable giving especially for organizations that rely on large numbers of small gifts from grassrootscontributors. The effects of high unemployment on giving are long-lasting. Even after people get back towork they dont often feel the need to make gifts for as many as two years.

Housing starts in July were down slightly from June a decline of 1.5%. The good news here is thatmost of the momentum from the June increase of 14.6% is being retained. This however may not be goodfor charitable giving. The more families spend on housing and its associated costs like insurance,furniture, maintenance and utilities; the less disposable income they have available for things likecharitable giving.

Consumer Confidence showed a slight increase in July up 3.3%. This is good news for charities andchurches that rely on small gifts from donors. People who dont feel confident enough to spend onconsumer items will not feel good about making charitable donations.

Standard & Poors downgrade on U.S. government debt is a first. U.S. debt securities are theoreticallyriskier than before the downgrade. Investors typically demand higher interest for riskier loans. This meansthat the U.S. might be forced to pay higher rates of interest on its debt. This would certainly have a rippleeffect on consumer and corporate debt interest tying up more money in obligations and creating lessavailable income for charitable giving. However, this happened in Japan in 2009 and in Canada in 1994with little effect on their interest rates or broad economies.


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analysis

other factors

Political campaign fundraising is putting an increasing amount of pressure on individual charitablegiving returns. Political fundraising competes with charitable fundraising from individual donors. Theeffects are more pronounced in nonprofits and churches that have more politically conservative donorprofiles. Studies show that politically conservative households are 30% more charitable than politicallyprogressive/liberal households.


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i n f o @ a t l a so f g iv in g .c o m 8 7 7 .4 1 4 .0 0 7 8 ju ly 2011 repor t p a g e 11

2011 ATLAS of Giving, 877.414.0078.This material is provided for the intended the ATLAS of GIVING, Pat. Pend., member only. Dis tribution of this inf ormation without express written permission is prohibi ted. T he ATLAS o f Giving forecasts areprovided for inf ormational purposes on ly. ATLAS of G iving disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or im plied,including (without limitation) any warranties of application for a specific purpose. Forecasts are upd ated monthly. Currentmonth forecasts represent a +/-4% margin of error, increasing as projection lead time increases.

model calculations

$23.00

$24.00

$25.00

$26.00

$27.00

$28.00

$29.00FORECAST MARGIN OF ERROR

mo d e l c a l c u la t io n sMathematical analysis of over 50 variables and 40 years of comprehensive giving data was used to create theATLAS of Giving model. Calculations correlate to overall giving in the U.S. at a rate of 99.5%. The margin oferror for the model is +/- 4% in the current month. Margins of error for projections increase with time as illustratedbelow.


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faqs

faqsC a n t h e A t l a s o f G i v i n g b e c u st o m i z e d f o r m y o rg a n i za t i o n ?

Absolutely! We can create a unique model based on your giving data which will generate a custom forecast andindex for your organization (or group of organizations). Please contact us for more information.

Ho w w a s th e A t l a s o f G i v i n g c r e a t e d ?

The formulas were built upon the hypothesis that macro-economic factors, macro-demographic factors, along withnational and international events could be used to measure and predict charitable giving. A team of 25 PhD levelmathematicians, analysts and statisticians then evaluated more than 50 possible variables and their interactionsto create an algorithm that was compared with published annual giving data dating back to 1968. The algorithmcorrelates to giving history 99.5%.

Ho w p re c i se i s it ?

The monthly measurement of giving is extremely precise. The coefficient of correlation (reliability) for the index is99.5% when compared with 42 years of published annual giving data.

The forecast is very reliable. Like any forecast, however, the level of reliability decreases and the margin of errorincreases as the forecasting period increases. The forecast is update monthly to account for changing events,economic conditions and policy changes.

Ho w i s t h e A t l a s o f G i v i n g d i f fe r e n t f ro m o t h e r se rv i c e s ?

The Atlas of Giving is the only resource that provides an ongoing forecast of giving which is updatedevery month.

Other resources are singularly focused on looking back in time. The Atlas of Giving is forward focused.The Atlas provides information that has immediate utility and provides future benefits.

Other resources are available only on an annual basis and some are released six months after the end ofthe reporting year. The Atlas reports national giving as it occurs monthly in the current year.

The Atlas of Giving analyzes the effect of current events on charitable giving. Others analyze historicalevents and their impact on last years giving.


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faqs

Wh a t i s Ph i l a n t h ro m a x ?

Philanthromax is an innovative firm that created the Atlas of Giving. Philanthromax was founded upon theidea that philanthropic effectiveness can be maximized through products that provide analytics, evaluationand data-based planning and accountability. We provide product solutions when organizations findthemselves under pressure to deliver results or improve effectiveness and efficiency. Philanthromax canproduce success during uncertain times. Philanthromax is expert at starting new philanthropic ventures orproviding objective analysis of existing programs. Philanthromax provides nonprofits with product solutions fordonor retention, planned giving, major gifts and annual programs. Philanthromax has extensive experience infundraising management and strategic planning. We understand both sides of the philanthropic equationgiving and getting. We understand that there are costs associated with fundraising and with giving. We

specialize in providing products that use business principles and techniques to make giving and getting moreeffective, efficient and accountable. Philanthromax is led by the most experienced and successful fundraisingexecutives in the world. For more information go to www.philanthromax.com.

Wi l l Ph i l a n t h ro m a x p e r fo r m s p e c i a l a n a l y t i c p r o j e c t s f o r c l i e n t s?

Yes. We can accommodate a wide variety of special needs. Please contact us to discuss your individualobjectives.

Philanthromax 6301 Gaston Avenue, Suite 715

Dallas, Texas 75214877.414.0078

contact [email protected]

877.414.0078

August 2011 Atlas of Giving Report - Showing giving trends through July 2011

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