ATPSM Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation

Model

Lucian Cernat

International Trade Division

United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development

General Overview: What is ATPSM?

• Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model• Computable international trade model• Analyse agricultural trade policy issues• Quantify economic effects

- unilateral changes- multilateral changes

• Comprehensive database

ATPSM: Main theoretical features

• Multi-country partial equilibrium model• System of equations for supply, demand, trade flows• Static model, no stochastic shocks or uncertainty• No time dimension, but some assumptions on demand

(short-term) and supply response (long-term)• No cross-sectoral effects from agriculture to other

economic sectors• Considers interrelationships between different

commodities (e.g. when competing for land)

ATPSM: Main theoretical features (2)

• Three agents: producers, consumers, government• Prices in the model

– No account of domestic trade margins– Domestic: producer and wholesale prices– World price

• Specific and mixed tariffs, export subsidies, etc. are expressed as AVEs

• Quota rents: assumed to be captured by exporters• Data limitations:

– no policy data for some developing countries– Modelled as price takers– Some applied and bound tariffs are missing

TRQs and quota rents

Q

p

q

pw

Pw+ ti

Pw+ to

TRi

TRo

MMLDC

Features of ATPSM: Trade Policies Specified

• Global import quota• Bound in-quota tariff rates• Bound out-of-quota tariff rates• Distribution of quota rents• Applied tariff rates• Export subsidies• Domestic support• Two-way trade

Two tier tariff structure

Coverage of ATPSM

• 175 countries• EU-15 one region• Detailed trade policy data for

141 countries• 35 agricultural commodities

ATPSM Commodity Aggregation (1)

• Livestock

• Bovine meat

• Sheepmeat

• Pigmeat

• Poultry

• Milk, fresh

• Milk, conc.

• Butter

• Cheese

• Wheat

• Maize • Sorghum • Barley• Rice• Sugar, raw• Sugar, refined• Oilseeds, temp.• Oilseeds, trop.• Vegetable oils• Pulses

• Roots, tubers

ATPSM Commodity Aggregation (2)

• Tomatoes

• Non-tropical fruits

• Citrus fruits

• Bananas

• Other tropical fruits

• Coffee green

• Coffee processed

• Cocoa beans

• Cocoa, processed

• Tea

• Tobacco leaves

• Tobacco, processed

• Cotton linters

• Hides & Skines

Trade Policy Questions

• Impact of reductions in bound out-of-quota tariff rates in all developed countries on- trade flows- export revenues - tariff revenues

• Impact of reductions in export subsidies on- world market prices - net food importers

• Impact of possible WTO agreements on developing countries

Change in producer surplus Cancun and Harbinson

-25,000-20,000-15,000-10,000-5,000

05,000

10,00015,00020,000

$m

CancunHarbinson

Change in consumer surplus Cancun and Harbinson

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

$m

CancunHarbinson

Change in welfare: Cancun and Harbinson

7,220

11,983

163

1,040-141 -199

7,242

12,824

-129-210

-2,0000

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,000

$m

Cancun Harbinson

Preference Erosion:Quota rents before and after liberalization

in selected SSA countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

$m

Maurit

ius

Zimbabwe

Botsw

ana

Namib

ia

Ivor

y Coa

st

South A

frica

Camer

oon

Swazila

nd

Malawi

Congo

Tanza

nia

InitialFinal

Developing countries' benefits

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1 2 3 4

Level of ambition in developing countries

Producer Surplus

Consumer Surplus

Welfare

Developed countries' benefits

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1 2 3 4

Level of ambition in developing countries

Producer Surplus

Consumer Surplus

Welfare

  

 

 

Special and differential tratment

Level of S&D decreases

Summary

Easy to use for negotiators and researchers • Graphical user interface• On-line help function and handbook available• No need expensive software (e.g. CGE modelling)• Regular model updates• Possibilities to use the results for trade-poverty nexus analysis

What does it cost?

• Available free on CDATPSM Project CoordinatorUNCTAD / DITCPalais des NationsCH-1211 Geneva

• Available from UNCTAD website www.unctad.org/tab• Support from

atpsm@unctad.org