Atomic Energy Power Corp. JSC€¦ · The negative outlook reflects the outlook on Russia. Standard...

Atomic Energy Power Corp. JSC

Primary Credit Analyst:

Sergei Gorin, Moscow (7) 495-783-4132; [email protected]

Secondary Contact:

Karen Vartapetov, Moscow (7) 495-783-40-18; [email protected]

Table Of Contents

Rationale

Outlook

Standard & Poor's Base-Case Scenario

Company Description

Business Risk: Fair

S&P Base-Case Operating Scenario

Financial Risk: Significant

S&P Base-Case Cash Flow And Capital Structure Scenario

Liquidity: Adequate

Covenant Analysis

Government Influence

Ratings Score Snapshot

Reconciliation

WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT DECEMBER 10, 2015 1

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Table Of Contents (cont.)

Related Criteria And Research


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Business Risk: FAIR

Vulnerable Excellent

Financial Risk: SIGNIFICANT

Highly leveraged Minimal

bb bbbb+

Anchor Modifiers Group/Gov't

CORPORATE CREDIT RATING

BB+/Negative/B

Russia National Scale

ruAA+/--/--

Rationale

Business Risk : Fair Financial Risk : Significant

• Strong international position and domestic

monopoly in the nuclear industry chain.

• Benefits of a vertically integrated business model,

with full nuclear cycle capabilities.

• Supportive outlook for Russian nuclear industry

growth.

• Exposure to inherent industry, operational, and

construction-related risks.

• A complex corporate structure.

• Our view of a very high likelihood of government

support for the group in the event of financial

distress.

• The government's provision of large capital

injections, asset transfers, and political backing.

• Adequate liquidity backed by ample cash and large

amounts of available committed long-term credit

lines.

• An ambitious capital-expenditure program, leading

to heavily negative free operating cash flow (FOCF),

although the government partly finances the

program through equity injections.


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Outlook : Negative

The negative outlook reflects the outlook on Russia. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services would lower its ratings on

Atomic Energy Power Corp. JSC (AtomEnergoProm) in the event of a sovereign downgrade.

Downside scenario

We might also lower the ratings if the company's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) deteriorates to 'b+' or below, or

if we consider that the likelihood of government support has reduced to moderately high or less. We regard both

scenarios as unlikely, however.

Upside scenario

If we revise the outlook on Russia to stable, we would take a similar action on AtomEnergoProm, assuming the

company's credit metrics develop in line with our base-case expectations.

Standard & Poor's Base-Case Scenario

Assumptions Key Metrics

• A consolidated EBITDA of about Russian ruble

(RUB) 220 billion in 2015, declining to RUB180

billion in 2016 on the impact of rising cost inflation

and regulatory pressure on AtomEnergoProm's

capacity payments, followed by restoration to

RUB220 billion in 2017 as new generating units

come online.

• Capital expenditures of about RUB220

billion-RUB270 billion in 2015-2016, with an

increase to about RUB370 billion in 2017 (including

Finnish Hanhikivi nuclear power plant project).

• Government equity injections covering about 34% of

the group's investment needs in 2015-2017.

• Modest dividend payouts of RUB10 billion-RUB11

billion per year.

• Consolidation of Uranium One's debt in the amount

of about RUB80.0.

• Asset retirement obligation of about RUB70

billion-RUB90 billion, which we add to the

company's debt as an analytical adjustment.

• Debt to EBITDA of about 1.1x in 2015, increasing to

2.0x-2.5x by year-end 2018.

• FFO to debt of more than 60% in 2015, declining to

about 30% by 2018.

2014A 2015E 2016F

Debt to EBITDA(x) 0.9 1.1 2.0

FFO to debt(%) 99 >60 30-40

All figures are fully Standard & Poor's adjusted,

including adjustments for asset retirement obligations,

pension obligations, and surplus cash. FFO--Funds

from operations. f--Forecast. e--Estimate.


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Company Description

AtomEnergoProm is a vertically integrated group of companies that operate Russia's nonmilitary nuclear assets (see

chart). The group covers all stages of the nuclear cycle, from the extraction of uranium to the generation of electricity

at nuclear power plants. AtomEnergoProm is one of the most important government-related entities (GREs) in Russia

due to its crucial role for the Russian economy as an electricity supplier.

Business Risk: Fair

Our business risk profile assessment reflects the following positive factors:

• A strong international position and domestic monopoly across the nuclear industry chain. The group is the world's

second-largest uranium producer by resource base and third-largest producer of uranium. We estimate the group's

market shares to be 36%in the uranium enrichment services (including services to global peers), and about 17% in


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the nuclear fuel fabrication.

• Supportive medium-term growth prospects. The company has an ambitious goal of increasing the nuclear installed

capacity to 34 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 from current 26.3GW (including the effect from decommissioning of existing

11 GW in total). Furthermore, the group's long-term contract portfolio for uranium enrichment services and fuel

supplies is increasing, thanks to 30 new reactors to be built in 12 countries. The group should maintain its solid

market position in the construction of nuclear power stations, uranium extraction, conversion, and enrichment, as

well as in fuel assembly production, thanks to a favorable growth outlook for the Russian nuclear industry and the

group's foreign operations.

• Generally high barriers to entry and tough competition in the industry. AtomEnergoProm holds a legally established

monopoly in Russia's nuclear electricity generation; it owns low-cost centrifugal technology of uranium enrichment

(along with just two other companies in the world); and each reactor design has historically required a certain fuel

assembly type (AtomEnergoProm is usually an international fuel supplier for Russian-type reactors). Usually the

order backlog for fuel deliveries and uranium enrichment is very long term and rather predictable, and a large

amount is contracted until 2020 and thereafter.

These strengths are balanced with the following weaknesses:

• Exposure to inherent industry, operational, and construction-related risks.

• Complex group structure.

• Need for sizeable investments into research and development in the long-term.

• Existing trade barriers in foreign markets, together with politically based decisions as to the choice of nuclear-fuel

providers or counterparties' need to diversify suppliers, potentially threatening AtomEnergoProm's market share.

• Regulatory pressure in Russia's electricity generation industry aimed at controlling retail electricity prices. The

framework lacks a long-term track record, while the government has the tendency to meddle in the industry.

S&P Base-Case Operating Scenario

• The consolidated EBITDA margin will be 30%-35% in 2015-2017 following the start-up of new units; a stronger

contribution from the fuel fabrication, enrichment, and engineering segments; positive impact of the ruble's

depreciation against foreign currencies (as about 40% of total revenues are foreign currency denominated [largely

dollar- and euro-denominated]); and cost-control procedures.

• Our base-case scenario envisages AtomEnergoProm's consolidated adjusted EBITDA of about RUB 180 billion-220

billion in 2015-2017.

Peer comparison

We classify AtomEnergoProm's business risk profile as satisfactory, similar to that of Russian Railways JSC and

Federal Grid Co. of the Unified Energy System. All of these entities enjoy monopoly positions (nuclear power

generation, for instance, benefits from prioritized capacity load, ahead of other types of generation) and significant

ongoing support from the government. We assess the business risk profile for electric power utility, RusHydro (OJSC),

as fair. RusHydro's exposure to hydrological risk makes it dependent on weather conditions and explains higher

volatility of earnings. In addition, its overall profitability is vulnerable to weak margins at its Far Eastern segment.

Compared with its direct global competitor, French conglomerate AREVA--whose business model also includes

uranium extraction, conversion, and enrichment--AtomEnergoProm's operations incorporate electricity generation at

nuclear power stations and therefore enjoy the benefits of full vertical integration. AtomEnergoProm has also


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generated much stronger profitability margins than AREVA.

AtomEnergoProm's financial metrics are close to those of Federal Grid Co.'s and RusHydro's, which have significant

financial risk profiles, according to our assessment. All three companies post negative FOCF, stemming from

ambitious investment programs that significantly rely on external financing. AREVA's financial risk profile primarily

reflects a long track record of and our expectations of continued very weak credit metrics and shortfalls in FOCF,

leading to high debt leverage figures (with debt to EBITDA above 10x). Therefore, we assess its financial risk profile as

highly leveraged.

Table 1

Atomic Energy Power Corp. JSC -- Peer Comparison

Industry Sector: Electric

Atomic Energy Power

Corp. JSC AREVA

Federal Grid Co. of the

Unified Energy System

Russian Railways

JSC

RusHydro

(OJSC)

Rating as of Dec. 10,

2015

BB+/Negative/B BB-/Developing/B BB+/Negative/-- BB+/Negative/-- BB/Stable/B

(Mil. €) --Fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2014--

Revenues 7,099 8,354 2,467 26,285 4,867

EBITDA 3,326 (297) 1,522 5,045 1,100

Funds from operations

(FFO)

2,824 (826) 1,257 3,943 870

Net income from cont.

oper.

996 (4,198) (307) (1,408) 364

Cash flow from

operations

2,523 231 785 3,882 615

Capital expenditures 3,263 1,151 820 6,692 985

Free operating cash

flow

(740) (920) (35) (2,810) (371)

Discretionary cash

flow

(885) (951) (41) (2,829) (445)

Cash and short-term

investments

241 100 0 0 0

Debt 2,849 8,942 3,318 14,583 2,709

Equity 22,025 (244) 8,158 28,982 8,470

Adjusted ratios

EBITDA margin (%) 46.8 (3.5) 61.6 19.1 22.4

Return on capital (%) 7.6 (12.0) 8.1 4.3 6.5

EBITDA interest

coverage (x)

8.7 (0.7) 4.6 4.6 4.8

FFO cash int. cov. (X) 9.9 (1.7) 2.9 6.8 3.3

Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.9 (30.2) 2.2 2.9 2.5

FFO/debt (%) 99.1 (9.2) 37.8 26.9 31.9

Cash flow from

operations/debt (%)

88.6 2.6 23.6 26.5 22.5

Free operating cash

flow/debt (%)

(26.0) (10.3) (1.1) (19.4) (13.9)

Discretionary cash

flow/debt (%)

(31.1) (10.6) (1.3) (19.6) (16.6)


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Financial Risk: Significant

The major constraints of AtomEnergoProm's significant financial risk profile are:

• An ambitious capital expenditure program, which will likely result in significantly negative FOCF, but only gradual

debt accumulation in 2015-2017, owing to substantial state funding. The group has indicated it intends to spend

RUB220 billion–RUB270 billion per year in 2015-2016 with a rise to RUB370 billion in 2017. However, we expect

the state to finance about 34% of total investments via capital injections (including funds for Hanhikivi power

station), and we assume the actual extent of the group's capital spending will depend on availability of these

injections.

• The risk of implementing projects that lack economic substance, but are important to the government.

These weaknesses are mitigated by:

• Strong ongoing government support in the form of equity injections and subsidies and a benign dividend policy.

• Modest dividend requirements, enabling profits to be reinvested in AtomEnergoProm or Rosatom. In addition, the

government compensates AtomEnergoProm for unfavorable tariff regulations in certain remote areas of Russia--for

example Chukotka, which is a special price sector--and supports its exports.

• Currently low debt and ample liquidity deposits. In our view, the state supports the group's debt policy. For

instance, Rosatom guaranteed the group's RUB10 billion bond issued in 2010 (now repaid).

• Strong bank relationships and a significant amount of available, committed, long-term credit lines.

• A favorable debt maturity profile.

Under our base case, we project that AtomEnergoProm's leverage ratio (debt to EBITDA, including our adjustments,

notably for asset-retirement and pension obligations) will not exceed 3.0x for the next three years. We view this ratio

as commensurate with the ratings, despite the group's investment program and our projection of heavily negative

FOCF. We understand the group has some financial flexibility because it can defer certain projects. However, any

decisions on postponement would need the government's approval, in our view.

S&P Base-Case Cash Flow And Capital Structure Scenario

• Strong, ongoing state support for AtomEnergoProm in the form of equity injections, at least until 2015-2020. We

incorporate RUB156 billion in 2015 and RUB83 billion in 2016 of capital injections from the government (including

those destined for the Akkuyu and Hanhikivi power plants).

• A significant negative FOCF until at least 2017.

• Modest dividend payouts of RUB10 billion-RUB11 billion per year.

Financial summaryTable 2

Atomic Energy Power Corp. JSC -- Financial Summary

Industry Sector: Electric

--Fiscal year ended Dec. 31--

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

Rating history BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3 BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3


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Table 2

Atomic Energy Power Corp. JSC -- Financial Summary (cont.)

(Mil. RUB)

Revenues 498,807 436,135 394,815 389,375 391,430

EBITDA 233,667 181,077 152,889 174,281 179,654

Funds from operations (FFO) 198,448 150,201 125,739 149,068 141,470

Net income from continuing operations 69,971 32,107 24,736 59,715 92,376

Cash flow from operations 177,297 146,508 62,934 128,866 127,822

Capital expenditures 229,281 250,833 207,950 199,812 135,872

Free operating cash flow (51,984) (104,325) (145,016) (70,946) (8,050)

Discretionary cash flow (62,172) (119,767) (154,029) (93,033) (11,385)

Cash and short-term investments 16,915 26,617 (2,150) 0 0

Debt 200,216 271,591 253,344 178,924 135,926

Equity 1,547,561 1,347,049 1,280,921 1,226,034 1,075,950

Adjusted ratios

EBITDA margin (%) 46.8 41.5 38.7 44.8 45.9

Return on capital (%) 7.6 4.8 4.6 8.4 12.2

EBITDA interest coverage (x) 8.7 8.1 6.8 9.4 9.5

FFO cash int. cov. (x) 9.9 6.5 5.3 15.5 9.9

Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.8

FFO/debt (%) 99.1 55.3 49.6 83.3 104.1

Cash flow from operations/debt (%) 88.6 53.9 24.8 72.0 94.0

Free operating cash flow/debt (%) (26.0) (38.4) (57.2) (39.7) (5.9)

Discretionary cash flow/debt (%) (31.1) (44.1) (60.8) (52.0) (8.4)

RUB--Russian ruble.

Liquidity: Adequate

We assess the group's liquidity as adequate under our criteria and estimate the ratio of sources of liquidity to uses at

more than 1.2x for the 12 months started July 1, 2015.

Principal Liquidity Sources

For the 12-month period started July 1, 2015, we calculate the following principal liquidity sources:

• Unrestricted cash and equivalents of RUB261 billion (about US$4.7 billion), although we note that about 33% of it is

located at the Akkuyu subsidiary, and is targeted for related nuclear power plant construction;

• Equivalent of RUB321 billion in available, committed, long-term credit lines, of which RUB21.4 billion is available to

AtomEnergoProm, and the rest to its subsidiaries;

• Cash flow from operations of RUB115 billion-RUB130 billion; and

• Capital injections from the government totaling RUB83 billion.

Principal Liquidity Uses

For the same period, we calculate the following principal liquidity uses:


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• Debt maturities of about RUB81 billion;

• Capital spending of about RUB250 billion, although we believe that actual outlays will depend on availability of

financing from the government; and

• Dividends of about RUB10 billion.

We expect that AtomEnergoProm's capital spending will correlate with the levels of equity injections from the

government. Furthermore, we believe that the group has the necessary flexibility in its investments to defer some

construction projects if the government were to reduce financing.

Covenant Analysis

AtomEnergoProm has significant headroom under the existing covenants on its various obligations, in our view.

Government Influence

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services views AtomEnergoProm as a GRE. In accordance with our criteria for rating GREs,

our view of a very high likelihood of extraordinary government support is based on our assessment of

AtomEnergoProm's:

• Very important role for the government and the Russian economy, given that it manages the country's civil nuclear

industry assets, including the construction and operation of nuclear power stations, which provide 17% of total

electricity output in Russia. AtomEnergoProm also manages uranium extraction, accounting for 10%-14% of the

global market according to various estimates; enrichment (about 36%); and fuel production (17% globally) across

the full cycle. It also employs about 132,000 people.

• Very strong link with the government. As specified in legislation, the government wholly owns AtomEnergoProm

through state-owned atomic energy corporation, Rosatom. The privatization of major nuclear assets is not on the

government's agenda and such a move would require legislative amendments. The government closely monitors the

group's activities.

Ratings Score Snapshot

Corporate Credit Rating

BB+/Negative/B

Business risk: Fair

• Country risk: High

• Industry risk: Intermediate

• Competitive position: Fair

Financial risk: Significant

• Cash flow/Leverage: Significant

Anchor: bb


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Modifiers

• Diversification/Portfolio effect: Neutral (no impact)

• Capital structure: Neutral (no impact)

• Financial policy: Neutral (no impact)

• Liquidity: Adequate (no impact)

• Management and governance: Fair (no impact)

• Comparable rating analysis: Neutral (no impact)

Stand-alone credit profile : bb

• Likelihood of government support: Very high (+1 notch from SACP)

Reconciliation

Table 3

Reconciliation Of Atomic Energy Power Corp. JSC Reported Amounts With Standard & Poor's AdjustedAmounts (Mil. RUB)

--Fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2014--

Atomic Energy Power Corp. JSC reported amounts

Debt

Shareholders'

equity EBITDA

Operating

income

Interest

expense EBITDA

Cash flow

from

operations

Capital

expenditures

Reported 271,686 1,484,510 234,145 125,009 12,749 234,145 167,229 233,937

Standard & Poor's adjustments

Interest expense

(reported)

-- -- -- -- -- (12,749) -- --

Interest income

(reported)

-- -- -- -- -- 14,133 -- --

Current tax expense

(reported)

-- -- -- -- -- (24,085) -- --

Postretirement benefit

obligations/deferred

compensation

8,245 -- (1,564) (1,564) 1,117 (2,383) (1,191) --

Surplus cash (126,943) -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Capitalized interest -- -- -- -- 4,656 (4,656) (4,656) (4,656)

Asset retirement

obligations

45,941 -- -- -- 8,205 (7,043) 2,986 --

Non-operating income

(expense)

-- -- -- 9,144 -- -- -- --

Reclassification of

interest and dividend

cash flows

-- -- -- -- -- -- 12,929 --

Non-controlling

Interest/Minority

interest

-- 63,051 -- -- -- -- -- --

Debt - Guarantees 1,287 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

EBITDA - Other

income/(expense)

-- -- 1,086 1,086 -- 1,086 -- --


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Table 3

Reconciliation Of Atomic Energy Power Corp. JSC Reported Amounts With Standard & Poor's AdjustedAmounts (Mil. RUB) (cont.)

Total adjustments (71,470) 63,051 (478) 8,666 13,978 (35,697) 10,068 (4,656)

Standard & Poor's adjusted amounts

Debt Equity EBITDA EBIT

Interest

expense

Funds from

operations

Cash flow

from

operations

Capital

expenditures

Adjusted 200,216 1,547,561 233,667 133,675 26,727 198,448 177,297 229,281

RUB--Russian ruble.

Related Criteria And Research

Related Criteria

• Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, March 25, 2015

• Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Dec. 16, 2014

• Standard & Poor’s National And Regional Scale Mapping Tables, Sept. 30, 2014

• Key Credit Factors For The Unregulated Power And Gas Industry, March 28, 2014

• Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013

• Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013

• Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013

• Methodology: Industry Risk, Nov. 19, 2013

•• General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013

• Methodology For Linking Short-Term And Long-Term Ratings For Corporate, Insurance, And Sovereign Issuers,

May 7, 2013

• Stand-Alone Credit Profiles: One Component Of A Rating, Oct. 1, 2010

• Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009

Related Research

• Russian Nuclear Energy Monopoly AtomEnergoProm Lowered To 'BB+/B', 'ruAA+' After Sovereign Downgrade;

Outlook Negative, Jan. 29, 2015

Business And Financial Risk Matrix

Business Risk Profile

Financial Risk Profile

Minimal Modest Intermediate Significant Aggressive Highly leveraged

Excellent aaa/aa+ aa a+/a a- bbb bbb-/bb+

Strong aa/aa- a+/a a-/bbb+ bbb bb+ bb

Satisfactory a/a- bbb+ bbb/bbb- bbb-/bb+ bb b+

Fair bbb/bbb- bbb- bb+ bb bb- b

Weak bb+ bb+ bb bb- b+ b/b-

Vulnerable bbbb- bb-/b+ b+ b b-


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Ratings Detail (As Of December 10, 2015)


Corporate Credit Rating BB+/Negative/B

Russia National Scale ruAA+/--/--

Corporate Credit Ratings History

29-Jan-2015 BB+/Negative/B

26-Dec-2014 BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3

28-Apr-2014 BBB-/Negative/A-3

26-Mar-2014 BBB/Negative/A-2

19-Jul-2012 BBB/Stable/A-2

14-Dec-2011 BBB/Stable/A-3

29-Jan-2015 Russia National Scale ruAA+/--/--

26-Dec-2014 ruAAA/Watch Neg/--

15-Oct-2009 ruAAA/--/--

Related Entities

TENEX-Service

Issuer Credit Rating BB/Negative/B

Russia National Scale ruAA/--/--

Uranium One Inc.

Issuer Credit Rating B+/Stable/--

Senior Secured B+

Senior Unsecured B

*Unless otherwise noted, all ratings in this report are global scale ratings. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on the global scale are comparable

across countries. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on a national scale are relative to obligors or obligations within that specific country. Issue and

debt ratings could include debt guaranteed by another entity, and rated debt that an entity guarantees.

Additional Contact:

Infrastructure Finance Ratings Europe; [email protected]


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