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Modelling bird behaviour to progress wind farm development

Tom HartleyPrincipal GIS Consultant

Atmos Consulting

Our service areas

Renewable energy Sustainable Development Biodiversity Property and Construction Marine and Coastal Water resources Environmental Management

Our specialisms

Environmental Impact Assessment Town Planning Ecology and Ornithology GIS mapping and analysis Noise and Acoustics Hydrology Project Management

Expert technical, environmental and planning support throughout the entire project life-cycle, from feasibility to implementation.

Onshore Wind and GIS

• Historically a good match

• Data has a potentially long shelf life

• Lots of spatial modelling required to assess impacts on sensitive receptors

• Maturing sector and recent changes to subsidies have lead to increased pressure to do more with less

Can’t see the birds?Theoretical modelling of bird activity

Leadhills wind farm• Turbines < 2km from Special

Protection Area

• Lack of activity recorded in Vantage Point surveys

• Uncertainty over potential impacts on key ornithological species – objection from Scottish Natural Heritage

Random Collision Risk Modelling

SNH (2000)

Usually derived from Vantage Point surveys - how to substitute activity levels in the flight risk volume?

• Define the flight risk volume• Calculate how much of this volume is swept by

turbine rotors• Calculate activity levels within this volume for

each species • Calculate the number of bird transits through

the swept rotor volume• Calculate the probability of a bird being hit in

each transit

The Solution

• A model to predict the time spent in the windfarm airspace based on territory / nest locations and ranging behaviour

• Species-specific information derived in part from the Atmos GIS database

The Solution

How to define nest locations?

1. Historical nest locations provided by SNH and local raptor study group

2. Worst case nest locations based on interpretation of aerial photography

3. Random nest locations within SPA based on breeding populations CO

NFIDENTIAL

The Model

• Define nest locations• Map the ranging behaviour per nest• Combine overlapping buffers as a grid• Calculate the time spent in the turbine

envelope• Correct for time spent at risk height• Substitute for observed activity levels

in existing random CRM

The Result

• Low risk of adverse impacts on populations

• Provided sufficient information to allow SNH to remove their objection and pass appropriate assessment

Further use in Pre-planning

Cumberhead wind farm• Turbines < 2km from same SPA

• Operational commercial forestry

• Low activity levels of SPA species

• Is survey data representative?

Additional Model Validation

• Incorporated active survey data to appraise worst case locations

The Result

• Model predicted low risk of adverse impacts on populations

• Case was made to reduce survey effort from 2 years to 1

• Rationale accepted by consultees and project submitted June 2015 and consented February 2016

• Significant saving of time and money for client

SNH Guidance

• Work was undertaken in close contact with SNH

• Modelling approach included in new SNH guidance:

• Wind farm proposals on afforested sites - advice on reducing suitability for hen harrier, merlin and short-eared owl

Further applications

• Incorporating habitat suitability into bird distribution

• Assessing different species (with different behaviour and distribution) at different sites

• Re-powering of existing sites using historic data?