ATM 401/501 Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013
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ATM 401/501 Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013 1. Forecasting at NCEP • Environmental Modeling Center http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/ • Ocean Prediction Center http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ • National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ • Hydrometeorological Prediction Center http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ • Storm Prediction Center http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
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ATM 401/501 Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013. 1. Forecasting at NCEP Environmental Modeling Center http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Ocean Prediction Center http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Hydrometeorological Prediction Center - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of ATM 401/501 Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013
ATM 401/501Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013
1. Forecasting at NCEP• Environmental Modeling Center
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/• Ocean Prediction Center
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/• National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/• Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/• Storm Prediction Center
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
ATM 401/501Status of Forecasting: Spring 2013
See also:
Hitchens, Nathan M., Harold E. Brooks, 2012: Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlooks. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1580–1585. (PDF Link)
Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak
February 5-6, 2008– 63 tornadoes, 57 fatalities– Deadliest event since ’85– Outlook issued 6 days prior– POD 100% for tornadoes occurring in SPC watches– Average warning lead time 17 min
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HazardsAssessment
February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak
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February 5-6, 2008Tornado Outbreak
Day 4-8
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February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak
Day 3
Day 2
Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Probabilistic
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February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak
Day 1
Convective High Winds
Hail Tornado
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Another Example
June 17, 2010• Tornado Outbreak – Upper Midwest
– Record tornado day in Minnesota (48 tornadoes)– 17 EF2+ tornadoes including four rated EF4 (in MN and ND)– 3 killed, more than 40 injured, and widespread damage– Strongly forced situation with well-defined frontal boundary
Tornado Damage in Holmes, ND
From Steve Weiss’ Talk at 2010 NCEP Review
Deterministic 00z WRF Model Forecasts valid 18z-04z
EMC 4 km WRF-NMM
NSSL 4 km WRF-ARW
From Steve Weiss’ Talk at 2010 NCEP Review
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 18 hr Forecast valid 18z 17 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 19 hr Forecast valid 19z 17 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 20 hr Forecast valid 20z 17 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 21 hr Forecast valid 21z 17 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
Otter Tail Cnty
EF4 1 Killed
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 22 hr Forecast valid 22z 17 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 23 hr Forecast valid 23z 17 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
Polk Cnty EF3
1 Killed
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 24 hr Forecast valid 00z 18 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
Freeborn Cnty EF4
1 Killed
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 25 hr Forecast valid 01z 18 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 26 hr Forecast valid 02z 18 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 27 hr Forecast valid 03z 18 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
WRF Simulated Reflectivity 28 hr Forecast valid 04z 18 June 2010
NMM4 NSSL4
Radar
NSSL WRF developed excessive cold pool and surged leading edge of convection too far southeast across Iowa. Initially “slow”
NMM was better with location but intensity was too weak near Mississippi River.
SSEF Tests of Double-Moment Microphysics 27 hr Forecast valid 03z 18
June 2010
Thompson WDM6
RadarMorrison
All members identical to SSEF 4 km ARW control run (upper left) except for different double-moment microphysics
schemes. All moved convection southeastward too rapidly.
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