assingnment on Monetary System

8/14/2019 assingnment on Monetary System

1/11

PR0JECT REPORT ON INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM (IMS)

S.P.B. PATEL ENGG. COLLEGE (MBA PROGRAM), MEHSANA Page - 1 -

A

PROJECT REPORT

ON

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM

IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT

IN SEMISTER IV IN THE SUBJECT OF IFM

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

SUBMITTED TO:

Ms. KHUSHBU SHAH

SUBMITTED BY:

CHAUDHARY SURESH (805)DAYMA HIRAL (806)

DAVE RAVI (807)

DESAI AJAY (809)


2/11



CONTENT

Sr.no. Particulars P.no.

1. INTRODUCTION 1

2. HISTORY OF IMS 2

a. BIMETALLISM 2

b. CLASSICAL GOLDSTANDARD

3

c. INTERWAR PERIOD 4

d. BRETTON WOODS

SYSTEM

5

e. FLEXIBLEEXCHANGE RATES

6

3. EURO CURRENCY 7

4. CURRENCY CRISES 8

5. BIBLIOGRAPHY 9


3/11



Introduction

1. What system? The phrase international monetary system (IMS) refers to the rules andinstitutions for international payments. Less abstractly, it refers to the currency/monetary regimes ofcountries, the rules for intervention if an exchange rate is fixed or managed in some way, and theinstitutions that back those rules if there is a problem (through official credits, controls, or paritychanges). With the world divided into a camp of major currencies that float freely and permit thefree flow of capital, and another camp with varying degrees of control over exchange rates andcross-border flows, todays IMS is something of a non-system. A key notion in this setup is thatof reserve asset: so long as a country fixes or manages its exchange rate, it needs a liquidinternational asset of stable value to intervene with. Since the demise of real assets like gold asmonetary anchors, the U.S. dollar has been the worlds principal reserve asset. For the most part,that system has worked reasonably wellexcept when it has not.

2. What is the issue? In a nutshell, the concern brought to the fore by the crisis is the tension between (1) the scale and volatility of global capital flows, which motivates ever larger reservebuffers, and (2) questions about the desirability of anchoring the IMS on one countrys currency(the U.S. dollar), given the origins of this crisis in the U.S. heart of the global financial system. Asdiscussed below, these tensions are not new, and to some extent reprise the difficulties experiencedby the previousand also dollar-basedBritton Woods Monetary System. The goal of this paper isto shed some light on the underlying tensions and touch on the reform proposals that have beenfloated.

3. Outline. In offering perspectives on tensions in the IMS and possible avenues for resolvingthese, this paper does not attempt definitive conclusions and remedies not least because many of the ideas discussed require dramatic changes in the scale of global policy coordination, and amendments to the IMFs Articles of Agreement. Section II begins byoutlining the problem with current arrangements for meeting the worlds demand for reserve assets(e.g., the lack of adjustment by the reserve issuer and its exorbitantif earned privilege of low-cost access to foreign capital). Section III asks how the demand side can be ameliorated by reducingincentives for reserve accumulation. Although some of the proposed remedies could beimplemented quickly, they would only address part of the problem. Thus, section IV looks at thealternatives on the supply side, ranging from competing reserve currencies to multilateral assets likethe SDR or a really new global currency. These remedies share a longer timeframe ofimplementation, but present difficult trade-offs in terms of stability, efficiency, sovereignty, andpracticality. All this suggests that the current system, suitably strengthened, may endure for sometime longer.


4/11



International Monetary System - Institutional framework within which:1. International payments are made2. Movements of capital are accommodated3. Ex-rates are determined

An international monetary system is required to facilitate international trade, business,travel, investment, foreign aid, etc. For domestic economy, we would study Money andBanking to understand the domestic institutional framework of money, monetary policy,central banking, commercial banking, check-clearing, etc. To understand the flow ofinternational capital/currency we study the IMS. IMS - complex system of internationalarrangements, rules, institutions, policies in regard to ex-rates, int'l payments, capital flows.IMS has evolved over time as int'l trade, finance, and business have changed, as technologyhas improved, as political dynamics change, etc. Example: evolution of the European Unionand the Euro currency impacts the IMS. "Spontaneous Order."

HISTORY OF THE IMS

1. BIMETALLISM (pre-1875)

Commodity money system using both silver and gold (precious metals) for int'l payments(and for domestic currency). Why silver and gold? (Intrinsic Value, Portable, Recognizable,Homogenous/Divisible, Durable/Non-perishable). Why two metals and not one (silverstandard or gold standard vs. bimetallism)? Some countries' currencies in certain periodswere on either the gold standard (British pound) or the silver standard (German DM) andsome on a bimetallic (French franc). Pound/Franc ex-rate was determined by the gold

content of the two currencies. Franc/DM was determined by the silver content of the twocurrencies. Pound (gold) / DM (silver) rate was determined by their ex-rates against theFranc.

Under a bimetallic standard (or any time when more than one type of currency is acceptablefor payment), countries would experience "Gresham's Law" which is when "bad" moneydrives out "good" money.

The more desirable, superior form of money is hoarded and withdrawn from circulation, andpeople use the inferior or bad money to make payments. The bad money circulates, the good

money is hoarded. Under a bimetallic standard the silver/gold ratio was fixed at a legal rate.When the market rate for silver/gold differed substantially from the legal rate, one metalwould be overvalued and one would be undervalued. People would circulate theundervalued (bad) money and hoard the overvalued (good) money.


5/11



Examples: a) From 1837-1860 the legal silver/gold ratio was 16/1 and the market ratio was15.5/1. One oz of gold would trade for 15.5 oz. of silver in the market, but one oz of goldwould trade for 16 oz of silver at the legal/official rate. Gold was overvalued at the legalrate, silver was undervalued. Gold circulated and silver was hoarded (or not minted intocoins), putting the US on what was effectively a gold standard.

b) France went from a bimetallic standard to effectively a gold standard after the discoveryof gold in US and Australia in the 1800s. The fixed legal ratio was out of line with the truemarket rate. Gold became more abundant, lowering its scarcity/value, silver became morevaluable. Only gold circulated as a medium of exchange.

2. CLASSICAL GOLD STANDARD (1875-1914).

For about 40 years most of the world was on an international gold standard, ended with

WWI when most countries went off gold standard. London was the financial center of theworld, most advanced economy with the most int'l trade.

Gold Standard exists when most countries:1. Use gold coins as the primary medium of exchange.2. Have a fixed ex-rate between ounce of gold and currency.3. Allow unrestricted gold flows - gold can be exported/imported freely.4. Banknotes had to be backed with gold to assure full convertibility to gold.5. Domestic money stock had to rise and fall with gold flows.

Under a gold standard, ex-rates would be kept in line by cross-country gold flows. Anymis-alignment of ex-rates would be corrected by gold flows. Payments could in effect bemade by either gold or banknotes. If market ex-rates ever deviated from the official ex-rate,it would be cheaper to pay in gold than in banknotes.

Example: Suppose that the U.K. Pound is pegged to gold at: 6/oz., and the French franc ispegged to gold at FF12/oz., then the ex-rate should be FF2/Pound. If the market rate wasFF1.80/, then the pound is undervalued in the market (one pound should buy 2 FF, it onlybuys 1.8 FF). Arbitrage would re-align the ex-rate:

1. Take 500 and buy 83.33 oz of gold (500 / 6) in U.K.2. Sell the gold for FF1000 in France (83.33 oz. x 12)3. Sell 1000 FF for 555.56 (FF1000 / 1.8FF/), for an arbitrage profit of 55.56


6/11



Advantages of Gold Standard:1. Ultimate hedge against inflation. Because of its fixed supply, gold standard creates pricelevel stability, eliminates abuse by central bank/hyperinflation.2. Automatic adjustment in Balance of Payments due to price-specie-flow mechanism.

Disadvantages of Gold Standard:1. possible deflationary pressure. With a fixed supply of gold (fixed money supply), outputgrowth would lead to deflation.2. An international gold standard has no commitment mechanism, or enforcementmechanism, to keep countries on the gold standard if they decide to abandon gold.

3. INTERWAR PERIOD: 1915-1944

When WWI started, countries abandoned the gold standard, suspended redemption of

banknotes for gold, and imposed embargoes on gold exports (no gold could leave thecountry). After the war, hyperinflationary finance followed in many countries such asGermany, Austria, Hungary, Poland, etc. Price level increased in Germany by 1 trilliontimes!! Why hyperinflation then?? What are the costs of inflation??

US (1919), UK (1925), Switzerland, France returned to the gold standard during the 1920s.However, most central banks engaged in a process called "sterilization" where they wouldcounteract and neutralize the price-specie-flow adjustment mechanism. Central bankswould match inflows of gold with reductions in the domestic MS, and outflows of gold withincreases in MS, so that the domestic price level wouldn't change. Adjustment mechanism

would not be allowed to work. If the US had a trade surplus, there would be a gold inflowwhich should have increased US prices, making US less competitive. Sterilization wouldinvolve contractionary monetary policy to offset the gold inflow.

In the 1930s, what was left of the gold standard faded - countries started abandoning thegold standard, mostly because of the Great Depression, bank failures, stock market crashes.Started in US, spread to the rest of the world. Also, escalating protectionism (trade wars)brought int'l trade to a standstill. (Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930), slowing int'l gold flows. USwent off gold in 1933, France lasted until 1936.

Between WWI and WWII, the gold standard never really worked, it never received the fullcommitment of countries. Also, it was period of political instability, the Great Depressions,etc. So there really was no stable, coherent IMS, with adverse effects on int'l trade, financeand investment.


7/11



4. BRETTON WOODS SYSTEM: 1945-1972

At the end of WWII, 44 countries nations met at Bretton Woods, N.H. to develop a postwarIMS. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank were created as part of a

comprehensive plan to start a new IMS. The IMF was to supervise the rules and policies of anew fixed ex-rate regime; the World Bank was responsible for financing developmentprojects for developing countries (power plants, roads, infrastructure investments).

IMS established by Bretton Woods was a dollar-based, gold-exchange standard of fixedexchange rates. The US dollar was pegged to gold at a fixed price of $35/ounce, and theneach currency had a fixed ex-rate with the $. See Exhibit 2.1 on p. 30.

Examples: $2.80/, DM4.20/$, FF3.50/$, etc.

Advantages of Gold-Exchange System/Bretton Woods in SR:

1. Economizes on scarce resources (gold) by allowing foreign reserves ($s) to be used forIMS payments. Easier to transfer dollars vs. shipping gold overseas under pure gold std.

2. By holding $ instead of gold as reserves, foreign central banks can earn interest vs. non-interest bearing gold.

3. Ex-rate stability reduced currency risk, provided a stable IMS, and facilitated int'l trade

and investment, led to strong economic growth around the world in 50s and 60s.

In long run, Bretton Woods (gold-exchange system) was unstable. There was no way to:1) devalue the reserve currency ($) even when it became overvalued or2) force a country to revise its ex-rate upward (appreciate its currency). A country couldagree, or be pressured into devaluation, but there was no way to "revalue" a currencyupward (appreciate through contractionary policy). In the 1960s, US pursued expansionarymonetary policy (printed money) to reduce unemployment, resulting in the dollar beingovervalued and foreign currencies being undervalued according to the fixed ex-rate system.There was no way to devalue the $, and other countries were not willing to revalue their ex-

rates upward (appreciate). Why?

Bretton Woods started to collapse in 1971, temporary measure (Smithsonian Agreement)didn't work, fixed ex-rate regime was abandoned in 1973. Also, Nixon put wage and pricecontrols went into effect in 1971, were then lifted, first oil shock started in 1973 (Arab oilembargo after Nixon gave $2.5B to Israel after Egypt attacked), oil prices doubled, no wayto stabilize the dollar. 1973- Fixed ex-rates/Bretton Woods were abandoned.


8/11



5. FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES: 1973-PRESENT

IMF members met in Jamaica in 1976 to agree to a new IMS including:

a. Flexible ex-rates allowed, central banks could intervene in currency markets. (Under

fixed ex-rates, you lose control over your monetary policy. Monetary policy must becommitted to maintaining the fixed ex-rate, and cannot be used to pursue othermacroeconomic goals)b. Gold was abandoned as a reserve asset.c. Developing countries were to get more assistance from IMF.

IMF was to provide assistance to countries facing BP/currency difficulties. (Brazilexample). IMF provides grants and loans to countries with problems under the conditionsthat they follow IMF's policy prescriptions - "strings attached to aid." Reduced budgetdeficits, reduced govt. spending/cutting subsidies, contractionary monetary policy, i.e.

responsible fiscal and monetary policies.

Advantages of Flexible Ex-Rates:

a. Countries have control over monetary policyb. A true market value is established for currency, fluctuates daily to reflect market forces ofS and D.c. Flexible ex-rates maintain BP equilibrium. Example: U.S. has trade deficit, M>X, excessdollars in world currency markets, $ depreciates, appreciates, US exports will go up,restore trade balance.

Disadvantages:

a. MNCs must be concerned about currency risk.b. Potential abuse by central bank, reckless monetary expansion.

Major currencies like $, Yen, etc. are freely floating ex-rates, changing daily to reflectmarket forces. Most of the rest of the world is under some type of system of "pegged ex-rates" or "managed floating," where central bank intervention is required to maintain acertain level of ex-rates. One system results in trading 1:1 with the dollar (Panama,

Bahamas, Belize 2:1, and Liberia), other systems trade within a certain band (range).Currencies pegged to $, FF, SDRs, others. 36 are independently floating, no pegging ortargeting. More than 40 have "managed floating" systems that combine market forces withpegging.


9/11



European Monetary System has been replaced by the Euro, the single currency in Europe (1ECU = 1 Euro). To qualify for euro, countries had to meet certain economic criteria:1) Deficits/GDP less than 3%,2) Price level stability - low and stable inflation, etc. Of the 15 countries in the European

Union, three countries decided not to join (UK, Denmark, and Sweden).

As of Jan 1, 1999:1) the 12 countries fixed their ex-rates against each other and against the Euro, and2) the Euro became a unit of account. For example, 3.35FF/DM. 6.55 FF/Euro. FF and DMwill float against the $, and Yen, but will be fixed against each other and against the Euro.Fixed ex-rate system for the 12 countries.

Euro currency (euro as a medium of exchange) started to circulate on Jan. 1, 2002. Oldcurrency and Euros BOTH circulated for the first 6 months, then old currency was taken out

of circulation and only Euros now exist.Changes:

1) Stores now quote prices in Euros.2) Payment in Euros can be made with charge cards and checking accounts3) Euro currencies options are now traded4) Stock prices/indexes are quoted in Euros.5) European Central Bank (ECB) established to conduct monetary policy in Europe.Governing Council made up of 12 ECB governors, one from each country, and 6 memberExecutive Board.

Main Advantages of Euro ():1. Significant reduction in transaction costs for consumers, businesses, governments, etc.(estimated to be .4% of European GDP, about $50B!)European Saying: If you travel through all 15 countries and exchange money in eachcountry but don't spend it, you end up with 1/2 of the original amount!2. Elimination of currency risk, which will save companies hedging costs.3. Promote corporate restructuring via M&A activity (mergers and acquisitions), encourageoptimal business location decisions.


10/11



Main Disadvantage of Euro:

Loss of control over domestic monetary policy and exchange rate determination.

Suppose that the Finnish economy is not well-diversified, and is dependent on exports ofpaper/pulp products, it might be prone to "asymmetric shocks" to its economy. If there is asudden drop in world paper/pulp prices, the Finnish economy could go into recession,unemployment could increase. If independent, Finland could use monetary stimulus tolower interest rates and lower the value of its currency, to stimulate the domestic economyand increase exports. As part of EU, Finland no longer has those options, it is under the EUCentral Bank, which will probably not adjust policy for the Eurozone to accommodateFinland's recession. Finland may have a prolonged recession. There are also limits to thedegree of fiscal stimulus through tax cuts, since budget deficits cannot exceed 3% of GDP, arequirement to maintain membership in EMU (to discourage irresponsible fiscal behavior).

General Consensus: Euro has been a success, and will likely emerge as the second globalcurrency, with the Yen as a junior partner. The success of the Euro may encourage otherareas to explore cooperative monetary arrangements (Asia, S. America). Three worldcurrencies at some point (, , $)?

CURRENCY CRISES

Trilema: A country can attain only 2 of the following 3 conditions at one time: a) fixedexchange rate, b) free international flows of capital, and c) independent monetary policy.

If you have an independent monetary policy and free capital flows (U.S., U.K., Euro), thenyou can't maintain a fixed exchange rate, it will float.

To maintain a fixed ex-rate and allow free capital flows, you cannot have independentmonetary policy, like Hong Kong (7.8 HK$ to one USD) or Argentina (used to be 1:1) withcurrency boards.

If you maintain a fixed ex-rate and pursue independent monetary policy, then you have toimpose capital controls, like China.

To avoid currency crises, a country can have: a) a really fixed ex-rate or b) a flexible ex-rate, but NOT a fixed yet adjustable ex-rate when int'l. capital markets are integrated. SeeFriedman article.


11/11



BIBLIOGRAPHY

WWW.BUSINESSWORLD.COM WWW.WHEREISDOC.COM

BOOK:-INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
http://www.businessworld.com/http://www.whereisdoc.com/http://www.whereisdoc.com/http://www.businessworld.com/

assingnment on Monetary System

Documents

Transcript of assingnment on Monetary System