Assessing the long-term potential of bioenergy in ... · Evangelos Panos, Kannan Ramachandran...

WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN

Assessing the long-term potential of bioenergy in electricity, heat and gird balancing markets: case study for Switzerland

Evangelos Panos, Kannan Ramachandran

Energy Economics Group, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis

International Energy Workshop 2016, Cork, 3-5 June 2016

Hydro 56%

Biomass 2%

Nuclear 38%

RES 1%

Fossil 3%

Swiss electricity and heat sectors (2010 figures)

ELEC. GENERATION: 68 TWh

HEAT GENERATION: 370 PJ

Electricity 15%

Oil 43%

Biomass 7%

Gas 28%

RES 1%

Other 6%

ELEC. CAPACITY: 18 GW

ELEC. GRID CONGESTION: NORTH-SOUTH

Hydro 56%

Biomass 2%

Nuclear 38%

RES 1%

Fossil 3%

Swiss electricity and heat sectors (2010 figures)

ELEC. GENERATION: 68 TWh

HEAT GENERATION: 370 PJ

Electricity 15%

Oil 43%

Biomass 7%

Gas 28%

RES 1%

Other 6%

ELEC. CAPACITY: 18 GW

ELEC. GRID CONGESTION: NORTH-SOUTH

Swiss Energy Strategy 2050: • Increase efficiency (-50% in TFC w.r.t. 2010) • Stabilise or reduce elc consumption • Reduce CO2 emissions (-70% to -80% w.r.t. 2010) • Phase out nuclear (gradually by 2034)

In view of the Swiss Energy Strategy objectives: • What is the role of bioenergy in electricity and

heat markets? • Can also bioenergy be used as a carbon-free

alternative for electricity grid balancing?

Resource module

Oil

Uranium

Nat. gas

HydroRun of riverReservoirs

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Animal manure

Bio-waste

Wood

Industrial waste

Electricity generation module

Nuclear plants

Natural gas GTCC

Hydro reservoirs Solar PV

Wind

Geothermal

CHPP

Very High Voltage

High Voltage

Hydro run-of-river

Natural gas GTOC

Medium Voltage

Waste incineration

Low Voltage

Solar PV

CHPP

Oil ICE

Bio-methane production module

Digesters

Gasification

CO2 separation

Methanisation

CH4+CO2

H2+CO+CH4

CH4

CH4

Fuel distribution

module

Electricity T&D grid

District heating network

Natural gas grid

Fuel transport

Electricity imp/exp

Pump storage

Electricity grid balancing servicesPrimary Control

ReserveSecondary

Control Reserve

Final demand module

Energy demand services

IndustrySpace heatingWater heatingProcess heat

Electric specific uses

ServicesSpace heatingWater heating


ResidentialSpace heatingWater heating


Gas boilers

Oil boilers

Wood boilers

Pellet boilers

Waste boilers

Electric boilers

Heat pumps

CHPP

Generic electric tech appliances

Power-to-gas module

Electrolyser MethanisationH2 CH4

Storage options

• Cost-optimisation model with long modelling horizon (up to 2100)

• Emphasis on electricity, heat, grid balancing and storage options

• Includes bio-energy conversion and use pathways

• Endogenous load curves for electricity and heat, aggregated to 288 typical hours

The Swiss TIMES electricity & heat model

• Distinguishes four different grid levels from high to low voltage

• In each level a set of power and storage options can be connected

• No grid topology, but it accounts for T&D costs and losses between levels

Representation of electricity sector

Very High Voltage Grid Level 1

NuclearHydro DamsImports Exports

Distributed Power Generation

Run-of-river hydroGas Turbines CCGas Turbines OCGeothermal

High Voltage Grid Level 3

Large Scale Power Generation

Medium Voltage Grid Level 5

Wind FarmsSolar ParksOil ICEWaste Incineration

Large scale CHP district heating

Wastes, BiomassOilGasBiogasH2

Low Voltage Grid Level 7

Large Industries & Commercial

CHP oilCHP biomassCHP gasCHP wastesCHP H2Solar PVWind turbines

Commercial/Residential Generation

CHP gasCHP biomassCHP H2Solar PVWind turbines

Lead-acid batteriesNaS batteriesVRF batteries

PEM electrolysis

Pump hydro

CAES

Lead-acid batteriesNaS batteriesVRF batteries

Li-Ion batteriesNiMH batteries

PEM electrolysis

Lead-acid batteriesLi-Ion batteriesNiMH batteries

• Distinguishes between specific and non-specific electric uses

• Residential sector is delineated into four sub-sectors (building categories)

• Each sector has different useful energy demand profiles for each end-use type

Representation of the heat sectors

Heat and electricity supply technologies:Boilers, resistors, heat pumps, storage devices, CHP units, electricity grid, solar PV

• Cost-supply curves obtained from GIS-data analysis for the different resources,

reflecting also transportation costs

• Energy crops and crop residues (straw) potential is negligible in Switzerland

food security and environmental concerns concerning domestically produced biofuels

• Grass from meadowland and mountain pasture land potential is negligible

remote locations and high costs to harvest

Biomass conversion pathways for stationary applications

• Power plants participate in the ancillary services markets, based on:

technical capability for fast ramp-up (flexible, non-flexible, intermediate)

marginal cost of electricity & marginal cost of capacity

• Storage mitigates the need for balancing (indirect participation in the market)

• CHP plants and heat pumps participate in the market as “virtual units”

• Endogenous ancillary services demand, calculated as follows:

Provision of ancillary services in STEM-HE

The total error may be then calculated as:

3 ∗ 𝜎2𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟 + 𝜎2

𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑 + 𝜎2𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑

And the reserve requirement in each typical hour 𝑡 is:

𝑅𝑡 = 3 ∗ 𝜎2𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟 ∙ 𝐺𝑡

2

𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟+ 𝜎2

𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑 ∙ 𝐺𝑡2

𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑+ 𝜎2

𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 ∙ 𝐿𝑡2

𝐺𝑖 generation from option 𝑖 , and 𝐿 load

By assuming uncorrelated random variables:

• 4 core scenarios across two main axes of Swiss energy policy

• 9 parametric variants to understand key drivers/barriers in the uptake of bioenergy

Definition of national energy scenarios

Reference:“POM” policies+ zero net imports

No Gas:Reference + No gas turbines

CO2:Reference + CO2 target

No Gas and CO2:No Gas + CO2 target

Decentralised generation

Large scale generation

-70% CO2 reduction by 2050

EU-ETS CO2 prices

Demands: Low (“NEP”) &High (“WWB”)

Oil & gas pricesLow &High

Biogas resourceHigh resource &

Support

Ancillary servicesNo biogenic CHPP

CCS available from 2030

+ NUC extension 10yrs

+

Fuel prices and reference CO2 price

0

20

40

60

2010 2030 2050

Carbon price(CHF/tCO2)

Light Fuel Oil(CHF/GJ)

Wood price(CHF/GJ)

Natural Gas(CHF/GJ)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2035 2050

Bio-waste

Animal manure

Wood

Biomass potential (PJ/yr)

Pump Storage In Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas (CC, OC)Gas (CHP) Wastes (Non. Ren.) Wastes (Ren.) Wood (CHP) Biogenic gas (CHP)Solar Wind Geothermal Net Imports Final consumption

• The gap due to nuclear phase out is filled with gas in mid-term, RES in long-term

• Biogenic CHPP attain shares 4.6 – 7.3% in 2050, from <2% in 2010

• Biogenic gas CHPP produce about 50% of the biogenic electricity in 2050

On-site wood gasification uptake increases under strong climate policy

Results: Electricity sector in 2050

Total electricity production (TWh) Electricity from bioenergy (TWh)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

REF NOGAS CO2 NOGASCO2

2010 2050

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


2010 2050

• Oil-fired heat is replaced by gas, heat pumps and renewables towards 2050

• Biogenic technologies supply about 14 – 21% of total heat in end-use sectors

• Synergies between heat pumps and CHPP: strong in industry, weaker in buildings

• Wood-fired boilers are substituted by pellets in the long term

• Biogenic gas CHPP account for 20 – 25% of total heat from biomass in 2050

Results: Heat supply in end-use sectors

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


2010 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


2010 2050

Total heat supply (PJ) Heat from bioenergy (PJ)

Electric boilers Heat pumps Light fuel boilers Heavy fuel oil boilers

Natural gas boilers Coal boilers Heat from fossil CHPP Heat from waste (Non Ren.) CHPP

Heat from waste (Ren.) CHPP Heat from wood CHPP Heat from biogenic gas CHPP Biogenic gas boilers

Wood boilers Pellet boilers Wastes boilers Solar thermal

• Demand for secondary reserve doubles and shifts to summer ( solar PV)

• Hydropower contribution does not increase (capacity needed for elec. prod)

• Biogenic CHPP can provide about 22-44% of secondary reserve in 2050

Results: Ancillary services (secondary reserve)

The graphs graphs refer to the reference case

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Winter working day in 2010 (MW)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Winter working day in 2050 (MW)

Bio CHP Pools

Wood CHPs

Gas CHPs

Wastes

Oil peak devices

Geothermal

Gas turbines OC

Gas turbines CC

Hydro dams

Nuclear

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Summer working day in 2010 (MW)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Summer working day in 2050 (MW)

Bio CHP Pools

Wood CHPs

Gas CHPs

Wastes

Oil peak devices

Geothermal

Gas turbines OC

Gas turbines CC

Hydro dams

Nuclear

Biomass production and use pathways (2050)

Reference scenario

Animal manure: 22.1

Biogas: 22.1

Bio-methane: 16.2

Biogenic gas boilers: 6.3

Heat: 5.5

Transport: 1.2

Biogenic gas CHP: 13.6

Heat: 6.9

Electricity: 5.4

Heat: 38.3

Wood:30.0

Pellets:10.1 Pellet

boilers:10.1

Heat: 8.7

Wood boilers:14.3

Pellet conversion: 12.1

Heat:9.7

Wood CHP: 3.6Heat: 1.8Electricity: 1.1

Biowaste: 24.9

Waste treatment (KEV/ARA): 24.9

Heat: 5.7

Electricity: 5.2

Electricity: 11.7

CO2 scenario

Animal manure: 24.5

Biogas: 32.7

Bio-methane: 27.2

Biogenic gas boilers: 8.3

Transport: 1.2

Heat: 7.6

Biogenic gas CHP: 21.5

Heat: 11.0

Electricity: 8.4

Heat: 56.9

Wood:55.2

Pellet conversion: 30.3

Pellets:25.4

Pellet boilers:25.4

Heat: 22.2

Wood boilers:11.5

Heat:7.8

Wood CHP: 13.4

Heat: 6.6Electricity: 4.1

Biowaste: 25.6

Waste treatment (KEV/ARA): 17.4

Heat: 1.7Electricity: 5.4

Electricity: 17.9

Reference scenario:

Total bioenergy in: 76.8 PJ

Total electricity & heat from bioenergy: 51.2 PJ

Average conversion efficiency: 67%

CO2 scenario:

Total bioenergy in: 105.2 PJ

Total electricity & heat from bioenergy: 75.8 PJ

Average conversion efficiency: 72%

Prospective drivers for biogenic CHPP

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Reference

No gas

CO2

No gasand CO2

Highdemand

Lowdemand

High biogasresource

Highprices

Lowprices

Bioelectricitysupport

CO2with CCS

CO2with CCSand NUC

No ancillaryservices

Factors, influencing biogenic CHPP: • Climate policy • Developments

in large scale generation

• Participation in ancillary markets

• Natural gas prices

• Level of electricity and heat demand

• Incentives for mobilising animal manure for biogas prod.

Biogenic CHPP capacity in all scenarios and sensitivity analyses assessed (MW)

• Biogenic CHPP are key option to raise bioenergy in industry and power generation

• Important factors influencing the uptake of bioenergy:

Natural gas price, biogas price, biomass potential, climate policy, demand levels

• Competitors of biomass based technologies for stationary applications, include the

large scale power plants and fossil CHPP in electricity market and the flexible units in

ancillary services markets

Solar and wind create opportunities for participation of bioenergy in grid balancing

Heat pumps can have synergies with biogenic CHP in heat supply

• If the CO2 target is to be met without increase in biomass consumption from 2010

levels, the system cost increases about 130 CHF for every GJ of biomass not used

(and this corresponds to a cumulative increase of more than 110 billion CHF)

• A policy framework to increase bioenergy in Switzerland shall include:

Incentives for farmers to mobilise animal manure for biogas production

Prevent use of food waste from catering as animal feed (legislation exists)

Separate collection of bio-waste and MSW

Enforce legislation for participation of CHPP in ancillary markets

Enforce building codes for minimum contribution of RES in building’s supply system

Conclusions

Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen

Thank you very much for you attention!

Evangelos Panos

Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis

Energy Economics Group

[email protected]

More information about this study you may find at:

www.bfe.admin.ch/php/modules/enet/streamfile.php?file=000000011337.pdf

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.bfe.admin.ch/php/modules/enet/streamfile.php?file=000000011337.pdf



Assessing the long-term potential of bioenergy in ... · Evangelos Panos, Kannan Ramachandran...

Documents

Transcript of Assessing the long-term potential of bioenergy in ... · Evangelos Panos, Kannan Ramachandran...