Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing
description
Transcript of Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing
![Page 1: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing
Jean-Daniel Fekete
Pierre Dragicevic
Luana Micallef
![Page 2: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
0% - 30% 30% - 60% 60% - 100%
The probability that a woman at age 40 has breast cancer is 1%.
The probability that the disease is detected by a mammography is 80%.
The probability that the test misdetects the disease although the patient does not have it is 9.6%.
If a woman at age 40 is tested as positive, what is the probability that she indeed has breast cancer?
![Page 3: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
ATTENTION
![Page 4: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The probability that a woman at age 40 has breast cancer is 1%.
The probability that the disease is detected by a mammography is 80%.
The probability that the test misdetects the disease although the patient does not have it is 9.6%.
If a woman at age 40 is tested as positive, what is the probability that she indeed has breast cancer?
0% - 30% 30% - 60% 60% - 100%
![Page 5: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The probability that a woman at age 40 has breast cancer is 1%.
The probability that the disease is detected by a mammography is 80%.
The probability that the test misdetects the disease although the patient does not have it is 9.6%.
If a woman at age 40 is tested as positive, what is the probability that she indeed has breast cancer?
0% - 30% 30% - 60% 60% - 100%
![Page 6: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
7.8%P ( Cancer | Positive Mammography ) =
![Page 7: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
95 doctors out of 100
said the answer is between 70% to 80%
![Page 9: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Why the correct answer is so low
![Page 10: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
P ( cancer | +ve mammography )
=
P ( +ve mammography | cancer)
P (+ve mammography | cancer) + P (+ve mammography | cancer)
Bayes’ Theorem
![Page 11: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
women without cancer
women with cancer
The probability that a woman at age 40 has breast cancer is 1%.
![Page 12: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
women without cancer
women with cancer
The probability that the disease is detected by a mammography is 80%.
The probability that the test misdetects the disease although the patient does not have it is 9.6%.
If a woman at age 40 is tested as positive, what is the probability that she indeed has breast cancer?
7.8%
![Page 13: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Can such visualizations facilitate Bayesian reasoning
![Page 14: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Proposed Visualizations
![Page 15: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
contingency table
bar-grain boxes Bayesian boxes trees
signal detection curves
![Page 16: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Euler diagram frequency grid
+
![Page 17: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Euler diagram + glyphs
![Page 18: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Previous Studies
Mainly in Psychology
Claim that
Bayesian problem representation impacts comprehension
![Page 19: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
but …
Inconsistent findings
Most effective Bayesian problem representation? UNCLEAR
Inconsistent and sometimes inappropriate diagram designs
Diagrams do not match textual information
![Page 20: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
(Sloman et al., 2003)
![Page 21: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Area-Proportional Not Area-Proportional
![Page 22: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
and the subjects …
Specific background usually highly-focused university students
Specific age group
Sometimes,
specific department
carried out as part of their course
![Page 23: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
so … cannot generalize their findings to
a more diverse population of laypeople
![Page 24: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Our Work
Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing
![Page 25: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
to identify…
- the most effective visualization for the crowd
- whether hybrid visualizations are helpful
- the link between the visualizations and different spatial and numeracy abilities
![Page 27: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
but…
how appropriate is
![Page 29: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Amazon MTurk
Used and evaluated for research and InfoVis
Demographics of workers are well-understood
Captures aspects of real-world problem solving better
- a large diverse population with different backgrounds, education, occupations, age, gender
- workers carry out tasks rapidly but accurately to improve their rating
- reduces experimental biases, as demand characteristics
![Page 30: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
http://www.eulerdiagrams.org/eulerGlyphs
![Page 31: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
![Page 34: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
![Page 35: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
![Page 38: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Experiment
![Page 39: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
168 workers with MTurk approval rate ≥ 95%
![Page 40: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Demographics
![Page 41: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
25 min
$1
![Page 42: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
3 Bayesian problemsclassics in Psychology
in natural frequencies format
![Page 43: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
![Page 44: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
![Page 47: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
![Page 48: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
![Page 49: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
followed by
objective and subjective numeracy tests
paper folding spatial abilities test
brief questionnaire
![Page 51: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Results
![Page 52: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
We failed to replicate previous findings
subjects’ accuracy was remarkably lower
visualizations exhibited no measurable benefit
![Page 53: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
even though …
reasonably confident with their answer
![Page 54: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
overall
12% exact answers
![Page 55: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
6%
no visualization
![Page 56: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
14% 11% 11%
21% 7% 14% 21%
![Page 57: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
no vis V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
V6Answer errors for all three Bayesian problems combined
per visualization type (N = 24 each)
21% exact
6% exact
![Page 58: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
12% 40% - 80%our study
exact answers
previous studies
![Page 59: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Thus
we failed to demonstrate measurable
benefits from visualizations to
facilitate Bayesian reasoning.
![Page 60: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Qualitative Feedback
![Page 61: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
53 out of the 168 subjects
participated
![Page 62: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
89% ‘somehow’ used the diagram
Most found the diagram very useful
BUT
Various did not understand the diagram
Some doubted the diagram’s credibility
![Page 63: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
However
must understand and trust the diagram
the answer is in the visualization
![Page 64: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
women without cancer
women with cancer
The probability that the disease is detected by a mammography is 80%.The probability that the test misdetects the disease although the patient does not have it is 9.6%.If a woman at age 40 is tested as positive, what is the probability that she indeed has breast cancer?
7.8%
![Page 65: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
How
![Page 66: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
either
help them understand and relate the diagram to the text
or
force them to get the answer from the diagram
![Page 67: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
change the text
![Page 68: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Another Experiment
![Page 69: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
480 workers with MTurk approval rate ≥ 95%
did not participate in experiment 1
![Page 70: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
1 Bayesian problemthe Mammography problem
![Page 71: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
10 out of every women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer.
8 of every 10 women with breast cancer will get a positive mammography.
95 out of every 990 women without breast cancer will also get a positive mammography.
classic
![Page 72: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
10 out of every women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer (compare the red dots in the diagram below with the total number of dots).
8 of every 10 women with breast cancer will get a positive mammography (compare the red dots that have a black border with the total number of red dots).
95 out of every 990 women without breast cancer will also get a positive mammography (compare the blue dots that have a black border with the total number of blue dots).
with instructions
![Page 73: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
10 out of every women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer.
8 of every 10 women with breast cancer will get a positive mammography.
95 out of every 990 women without breast cancer will also get a positive mammography.
without numbers
![Page 74: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
A small minority of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer.
A large proportion of women with breast cancer will get a positive mammography.
A small proportion of women without breast cancer will also get a positive mammography.
without numbers
![Page 75: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
![Page 76: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
10 out of every women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer.
8 of every 10 women with breast cancer will get a positive mammography.
95 out of every 990 women without breast cancer will also get a positive mammography.
classic
![Page 77: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Results
![Page 78: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
The Most Effective Textual Representation
![Page 79: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
A small minority of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer.
A large proportion of women with breast cancer will get a positive mammography.
A small proportion of women without breast cancer will also get a positive mammography.
without numbers
![Page 80: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
exact answers
![Page 81: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
+no visualization
3.3% exact answers
classic text
![Page 82: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
+5% exact answers
classic text
![Page 83: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
5% exact answers
+
text with instructions
![Page 84: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
1 exact answer (N=120)
+
text without numbers
![Page 85: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Answer errors for the Mammography Bayesian problemper presentation type (N = 120 each)
classic + no vis
classic + vis
with instructions + vis
without numbers + vis
![Page 86: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
Conclusion
![Page 87: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
Using crowdsourcing, we assessed
6 visualizations and text alone for
3 classic Bayesian problems
![Page 88: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
We failed to replicate previous findings
subjects’ accuracy was remarkably lower
visualizations exhibited no measurable benefit
![Page 89: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
A follow-up experiment confirmed …
simply adding a visualization to a textual Bayesian
problem does not help
diagrams can help but numerical values have to be removed and the text should be used to merely set the scene
![Page 90: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
We need …
novel visualization that holistically combine
text and visualization and promote the use of estimation rather than calculation
more studies in settings that better capture real-life rapid decision making
![Page 91: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
To …
facilitate reasoning of statistical information
for both layman and professionals
![Page 92: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
ThanksJean-Daniel
FeketePierre
DragicevicLuana Micallef
![Page 93: Assessing the Effect of Visualizations on Bayesian Reasoning through Crowdsourcing](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110106/56816762550346895ddc3d5c/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
error = log10answergiven
answerexpected