Assessing Commodity s Impact on the Macro Front ...

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Latest 2021F

7-DRRR (%), eop 3.50 3.05

Inflation (YoY %) 1.60 2.92

US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 14,268 14,085

JCI Index 6,342.7 1.83%

Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 14,976.5

Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 7,776.4

2021F 2022F

P/E (x) 18.9 16.5

P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 13.0

Div. Yield (%) 2.6 2.8

Net Gearing (%) 23.5 20.0

ROE (%) 12.6 13.2

EPS Growth (%) 49.5 15.5

EBITDA Growth (%) 45.0 5.7

Earnings Yield (%) 5.3 6.1

* Aggregate of 73 companies in MS research universe,

representing 65.1%of JCI’s market capitalization

Economic Data

Stock Market Data (04 October2021)

Market Data Summary*

• Assessing Commodity’s Impact on the Macro Front • Healthcare: Indonesia COVID-19 Weekly Update • BTPN Syariah: Swift Recovery Underway (BTPS; Rp3,400; Buy; TP: Rp4,000) • Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 4 Oct-21 Assessing Commodity’s Impact on the Macro Front

What caused commodity prices to spike? Both demand and (lately) supply factors. On the former, the economic recoveries of China and developed economies have been solid this year, as those nations have loosened their mobility restriction earlier amid faster vaccinations. We believe the aggressive quantitative easing of global central banks (USD 10tn from G3 central banks) has also been a prominent reason for the robust commodity prices. Furthermore, the supply-side disruption was another factor lately. Coal price has reached an all-time high of >USD 200/ton (vs. USD 60.8/ton in 2020) partly due to the energy crisis in China. Palm oil price has also touched >USD 1,000/ton this year (vs. USD 644/ton in 2020), owing to supply problems in Indonesia and Malaysia. The latest news is the higher natural gas price due to Russia’s lower output, especially to European countries.

Export has outperformed peers. The obvious impact of high commodity prices is on trade. The growth of Indonesia’s export has been significant year-to-date, averaging 40% YoY (vs. 1% in 2018-2019), and its export level has surpassed the pre-COVID level since Oct-2020. In fact, the current level is higher than peers owing to at least two factors: i.) the strong structural-type-export of iron and steel, which is responsible for 20% of the 7M21 export growth; ii.) commodity goods still account for a big share of total exports, reaching 37%. Combined with the benign import year-to-date, Indonesia’s trade balance has averaged USD 2.4bn (vs. average in 2018–2020 at USD 0.3bn).

Price, rather than volume, has been the dominant factor for commodity export. Most of the contribution on commodity exports has been from the price factor rather than volume, in our view, as the ratio of export value/volume is >1. On the flip side, the contributions of price and volume for manufacturing-related exports have been more balanced, with a ratio of 1 or <1.

Positive impact on the current account balance and fiscal budget until YE2021. All in all, assuming the high commodity prices persist until year-end, we now expect a current account surplus in 3Q21 (0.0–0.2% of GDP) and the net effect to the current account balance could reach 1.3% of GDP for FY21. The impact of high commodity prices on export should also partially offset the potential exchange rate risk due to the US taper which is anticipated around the corner. On the fiscal side, we calculate a fiscal revenue surplus of Rp50tn–80tn, or equivalent to 0.3–0.5% of GDP in 2021.

HIGHLIGHT

Equity Research | 05 October 2021 INVESTOR DIGEST

ECONOMY


Equity Research | 05 October 2021


The risk will be more on producer inflation. The cost-push pressure has increased vastly, with annual changes in PPI and WPI outpacing CPI since 4Q20 owing to rising prices of food and energy commodities. Or in other words, companies have not fully passed through the higher production cost to consumers. A pass-through is likely ahead, yet it will be limited, with more pass-through flexibility in 2022. On the other hand, the direct impact of commodity prices on consumer inflation will remain minor at least until YE2021. The government is unlikely to adjust the fuel prices of RON 88 and RON 91 (which account for 86% of the total fuel consumption), and the electricity tariff for the time being. We maintain our inflation forecast at 2.3% in YE 2021.

The commodities’ impact on economic growth will be more lagging. We have seen a positive impact on income, especially for farmers, reflected from rising farmers’ terms of trade, although the impact on consumption will not be immediate. The future impact on consumption will begin to materialize when the consumer confidence returns to the optimistic level (>100), suggesting the effect will be seen, at the soonest, upon entering YE2021. Meanwhile, coal price has a bigger impact on investment, as the coal sector is a heavy capital-intensive sector. The effect on investment is expected to be lower than usual due to the ESG implementation in the medium term.

Will this high commodity price trend sustain in 2022? Unlikely. The commodity price will taper off next year, in our opinion, as the gap in economic recoveries between advanced economies + China and emerging countries is expected to narrow in 2022. The economic growth of the former countries will peak in 2021, while the latter countries, including Indonesia, will catch up next year. This will translate to easing export, with import expected to increase on the back of domestic investment. Therefore, we estimate the current account deficit to widen in 2022, yet it will remain below the average level (-2.0% to -2.3% of GDP vs. average CAD of -2.5% of GDP) as the structural export types, such as iron & steel and copper, will remain solid.

COMMODITY PRICES HAVE BEEN UPBEAT SINCE 4Q20 CHINA’S ENERGY OUTPUT GROWTH HAS BEEN BELOW

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep-

19

Nov-

19

Jan-

20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-2

0

Sep-

20

Nov-

20

Jan-

21

Mar

-21

May

-21

Jul-2

1

Sep-

21

Commodity Price Index (YE2018 = 100)

CPO Brent Oil Natural Gas

Nickle Tin Copper

Rubber Soybean Coal

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan

-21

Feb

-21

Mar

-21

Apr -

21

May

-21

Jun

-21

Jul -

21

Aug -

21

China's Energy Output vs. Industrial Production (% YoY)

Coal Production Hydropower Output Industrial Production

Sources: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas Sources: CEIC, Mandiri Sekuritas




BASE METALS HAD THE HIGHEST CONTRIBUTION TO 7M21

EXPORT GROWTH

COMMODITIES ACCOUNT FOR 37% OF INDONESIA’S TOTAL

EXPORTS

6.9

5.24.2

2.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.4

012345678

Base

met

al p

rodu

cts

CPO

Coal

Oil &

gas

Copp

er o

re

Chem

ical

s

Elec

tric

al

equi

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esse

d ru

bber

Contribution to YoY% 7M21 Export Growth (ppt)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

*

Share to Total Export (%)

Commodity export Non-commodity export*As of Aug-2021

Source: BPS, CEIC, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate Source: BI, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate

SENSITIVITY ON THE IMPACT OF COMMODITY PRICES ON INDONESIA’S MACRO FRONT

Increment Country Impact to:

Growth (ppt)

Current Account (% of GDP) Govt Revenue (Rp bn)

Every 10% increase

CPO 0.08 Consumption: 0.06 ppt

0.13% 1,036.45 Investment: 0.02 ppt

Coal 0.07 Consumption: 0.01 ppt

0.10% 1,931.38 Investment: 0.06 ppt

Oil -0.01 Consumption: -0.01 ppt

-0.10% 11,628.00 Investment: 0.00 ppt

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates

Leo Rinaldy(+6221 5296 9406) [email protected] Imanuel Reinaldo(+6221 5296 9651) [email protected]

Healthcare: Indonesia COVID-19 Weekly Update

Analysis on COVID-19 case and vaccination trends in Indonesia for the period of 27-Sep to 3-Oct 2021. The COVID-19 situation remains under control and continues to improve, although many activity relaxations have been introduced in the past months. The national infection rate trended lower to 0.9% (7DMA) as of 3-Oct amid declining WoW weekly cases and an increasing number of testing WoW. The national bed occupancy ratio (BOR) declined to 7% as of 3-Oct, with the highest national BOR being Papua’s at 21%. In terms of regional assessment for mobility restriction, Lampung was bumped up to Level 2, likely due to not meeting its vaccination target, while East Java and Riau Island were at Level 1 as of 2-Oct. There are now only 4 provinces in Level 3 assessment and 28 in Level 2. Govt has extended the social restriction for another 2 weeks, with additional relaxation including opening the border for international travelers starting from 14-Oct at Ngurah-Rai Airport in Bali.

Social restriction (PPKM) update. The government has announced another 2-week extension of social restrictions in all areas

(Java-Bali and outside Java-Bali) until 18-Oct-2021. Jakarta is still at level 3, as several agglomeration areas have yet to reach the

vaccination target. For the same reason, the levels of some cities/districts were upgraded in the Java-Bali area, bringing a total of

107 level-3 cities/districts (from previously 84). Hence, the numbers indicate the vaccination achievements as the main

assessment to determine PPKM levels. In parallel, govt is preparing for the new normal implementation by imposing a level 1

pilot project at Blitar City, followed by a close activity monitoring and surveillance to prevent outbreaks. Face-to-face learning

SECTOR




(PTM) will continue, aligned with the active case finding strategy, wherein random tests are conducted at 10% of the schools

implementing PTM per city by taking 30 samples from each category: students and teachers. The approach is based on the

positivity rate, wherein a >5% positivity rate requires 2 weeks of school closure, 1-5% requires quarantine for only the positive

classes, and <1% rate requires individual quarantine.

As the condition has improved, govt will impose some relaxation measures in Java-Bali:

1) Allowing gyms to operate at max. 25% capacity; 2) Allowing F&B sales at the cinema, while the cinema capacity remains at 50%; 3) Opening the international border at Ngurah-Rai Airport (Bali) as of 14-Oct, limited to visitors from Japan, South Korea,

China, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and New Zealand; and 4) Allowing the Honda DBL Teen Basketball Competition to commence in Jakarta and Surabaya.

New cases. The weekly national new cases on 27-Sep to 3-Oct declined to 11.3k (-35% WoW). All regions in our observation last week had new-case declines WoW. Jakarta recorded <1k new cases last week (-10% WoW) or c. 138 cases/day.

Testing and infection rates. The weekly national testing increased by 3% WoW to 1.23mn, driven by testing outside Jakarta (+4% WoW), while testing in Jakarta decreased by 1% WoW. The national infection rate was kept at a record low of 0.9% (7DMA), -0.5 ppt WoW. Similarly at declining trends were Jakarta’s infection rate at 0.8% (7DMA) and ex-Jakarta’s at 0.9% (7DMA).

Active cases and hospital occupancy rates (BOR). The national active cases decreased by 10k last week as all regions had declining active cases. The national active cases stood at 33k as of 3-Oct (-23% WoW), while Jakarta’s were at 1.7k (-14% WoW).

The national COVID-19 BOR decreased to 7% as of 3-Oct (26-Sep: 9%) as the BORs in Java and outside Java declined to 6% (26-Sep: 7%) and 8% (26-Sep: 11%), respectively. Only Southeast Sulawesi had an increasing BOR WoW of 1 ppt, reaching 9% as of 3-Oct. Papua had the highest BOR nationally at 21%, while Jakarta’s BOR was at 8% as of 3-Oct; both maintained WoW (see Fig. 9-10).

COVID-19 vaccination progress. Indonesia recorded another new high for its weekly COVID-19 vaccination of 11.5mn doses last week (+11% WoW). Excluding the booster shots for medical workers, the vaccination still printed 11.5mn doses (+11% WoW). The average vaccination pace last week was at 1.6mn doses/day. Cumulatively, 93.8mn people have received first shot (45% total target) and 52.7mn people have received full dose (25.3% total target). A total of 960k medical workers have received a booster shot, or 65.4% of the target. About 72% of the total shots last week were conducted in West Java (2.2mn), Central Java (2.15mn), East Java (2.1mn), Banten (634k), North Sumatra (651k), and West Nusa Tenggara (340k). Provinces with the highest vaccination target achievements for first-dose/full-dose by far are still Bali (98%/79%), Greater Jakarta (93%/70%), Riau Islands (86%/59%), Yogya (84%/50%), Bangka Belitung (50%/24%), Banten (49%/28%), East Java (49%/25%), Jambi (47%/26%), North Sulawesi (47%/26%), and Central Java (46%/22%), while the rest of the regions still have lower than the national vaccination rate (see Fig 7-8). Provinces with the best progress last week in terms of first dose achievement in a week were West Nusa Tenggara, Central Java, and East Java; each of these provinces could vaccinate 5-8% of their targeted population in one week.

COVID-19 WEEKLY SUMMARY

WEEKLY COVID-19 SUMMARY

30 Aug- 5 Sept'21

6-12 Sept'21

13-19 Sept'21

20-26 Sept'21

27 Sept - 3 Oct'21

%wow 30 Aug-

5 Sept'21 6-12

Sept'21 13-19

Sept'21 20-26

Sept'21 27 Sept - 3 Oct'21

New cases Indonesia (benchmark)

55,189 38,491 23,252 17,250 11,271 -42% -30% -40% -26% -35%

Jakarta 2,849 2,050 1,419 1,071 966 -27% -28% -31% -25% -10%

West Java 5,423 3,943 1,994 1,417 1,072 -73% -27% -49% -29% -24%

East Java 5,771 3,586 2,561 1,577 1,059 -35% -38% -29% -38% -33%





30 Aug- 5 Sept'21

6-12 Sept'21

13-19 Sept'21

20-26 Sept'21

27 Sept - 3 Oct'21

%wow 30 Aug-

5 Sept'21 6-12

Sept'21 13-19

Sept'21 20-26


Central Java 5,098 3,927 2,099 1,871 1,094 -15% -23% -47% -11% -42%

Banten 1,115 651 459 426 344 -36% -42% -29% -7% -19%

Yogya 2,522 1,384 883 625 447 -44% -45% -36% -29% -28%

Bali 2,402 1,689 1,156 849 588 -40% -30% -32% -27% -31%

North Sumatra 4,053 2,534 1,532 1,110 514 -33% -37% -40% -28% -54%

West Sumatra 1,055 791 502 354 252 -51% -25% -37% -29% -29%

South Sumatra 592 555 360 205 120 -54% -6% -35% -43% -41%

Aceh 1,983 1,507 981 637 318 -15% -24% -35% -35% -50%

Riau 1,990 1,240 709 622 356 -39% -38% -43% -12% -43%

South Sulawesi 1,685 1,176 805 564 363 -38% -30% -32% -30% -36%

East Kalimantan 2,914 1,868 1,068 861 474 -29% -36% -43% -19% -45%

South Kalimantan 1,729 1,142 568 394 264 -32% -34% -50% -31% -33%

Papua 601 428 272 240 161 -26% -29% -36% -12% -33% West Nusa Tenggara

659 561 306 195 135 -21% -15% -45% -36% -31%

East Nusa Tenggara

1,333 1,039 663 443 330 -43% -22% -36% -33% -26%

Riau Islands 557 436 323 202 106 -23% -22% -26% -37% -48%

Case tested Indonesia (benchmark)

833,100 966,521 1,142,867 1,190,041 1,228,434 7% 16% 18% 4% 3%

Jakarta 97,317 116,573 116,653 118,739 118,072 6% 20% 0% 2% -1%

Outside Jakarta 735,783 849,948 1,026,214 1,071,302 1,110,362 7% 16% 21% 4% 4%

Infection rate Indonesia (benchmark)

6.6% 4.0% 2.0% 1.4% 0.9% -5.5% -2.6% -1.9% -0.6% -0.5%

Jakarta 2.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% -1.3% -1.2% -0.5% -0.3% -0.1%

Outside Jakarta 7.1% 4.3% 2.1% 1.5% 0.9% -6.1% -2.8% -2.2% -0.6% -0.6%

Active cases Indonesia (benchmark)

(62,071) (45,650) (48,900) (18,200) (9,893)

Jakarta (2,168) (1,644) (1,062) (869) (275)

West Java (12,194) (5,161) (2,597) (1,304) (825)

East Java (4,486) (2,637) (2,088) (1,247) (749)

Central Java (6,508) (3,271) (10,683) (1,625) (658)

Banten (1,599) (932) (694) (247) (9)

Yogya (5,092) (3,120) (2,233) (1,376) (545)

Bali (1,899) (913) (1,981) (626) (704)

North Sumatra (3,043) (9,549) (5,938) (1,295) (931)

West Sumatra (1,401) (1,258) (1,112) (646) (586)

South Sumatra (1,169) (722) (289) (269) (159)

Aceh (110) (817) (1,049) (2,805) (509)

Riau (2,237) (1,686) (704) (375) (425)

South Sulawesi (2,364) (1,094) (562) (301) (246)

East Kalimantan (2,086) (1,949) (1,238) (647) (574)

South Kalimantan (4,001) (1,251) (948) (441) (496)

Papua 332 (1,490) (9,155) 23 (66)

West Nusa Tenggara

(201) (240) (175) (140) (64)

East Nusa Tenggara

(1,346) (715) (468) (449) (295)

Riau Islands (363) (110) (132) (314) (125)





30 Aug- 5 Sept'21

6-12 Sept'21

13-19 Sept'21

20-26 Sept'21

27 Sept - 3 Oct'21

%wow 30 Aug-

5 Sept'21 6-12

Sept'21 13-19

Sept'21 20-26


Active cases rate Indonesia (benchmark)

-112.5% -118.6% -210.3% -105.5% -87.8% -18.0% -6.1% -91.7% 104.8% 17.7%

Jakarta -76.1% -80.2% -74.8% -81.1% -28.5% -56.2% -4.1% 5.4% -6.3% 52.7%

West Java -224.9% -130.9% -130.2% -92.0% -77.0% -94.4% 94.0% 0.6% 38.2% 15.1%

East Java -77.7% -73.5% -81.5% -79.1% -70.7% 36.2% 4.2% -8.0% 2.5% 8.3%

Central Java -127.7% -83.3% -509.0% -86.9% -60.1% -92.5% 44.4% -425.7% 422.1% 26.7%

Banten -143.4% -143.2% -151.2% -58.0% -2.6% -24.1% 0.2% -8.0% 93.2% 55.4%

Yogya -201.9% -225.4% -252.9% -220.2% -121.9% -103.9% -23.5% -27.5% 32.7% 98.2%

Bali -79.1% -54.1% -171.4% -73.7% -119.7% -16.1% 25.0% -117.3% 97.6% -46.0%

North Sumatra -75.1% -376.8% -387.6% -116.7% -181.1% 10.0% -301.8% -10.8% 270.9% -64.5%

West Sumatra -132.8% -159.0% -221.5% -182.5% -232.5% -49.2% -26.2% -62.5% 39.0% -50.1%

South Sumatra -197.5% -130.1% -80.3% -131.2% -132.5% -2.4% 67.4% 49.8% -50.9% -1.3%

Aceh -5.5% -54.2% -106.9% -440.3% -160.1% -25.4% -48.7% -52.7% -333.4% 280.3%

Riau -112.4% -136.0% -99.3% -60.3% -119.4% -16.2% -23.6% 36.7% 39.0% -59.1%

South Sulawesi -140.3% -93.0% -69.8% -53.4% -67.8% -4.3% 47.3% 23.2% 16.4% -14.4%

East Kalimantan -71.6% -104.3% -115.9% -75.1% -121.1% -2.6% -32.8% -11.6% 40.8% -46.0%

South Kalimantan -231.4% -109.5% -166.9% -111.9% -187.9% -97.1% 121.9% -57.4% 55.0% -75.9%

Papua 55.2% -348.1% -3365.8% 9.6% -41.0% 40.4% -403.4% -3017.7% 3375.4% -50.6% West Nusa Tenggara

-30.5% -42.8% -57.2% -71.8% -47.4% 15.9% -12.3% -14.4% -14.6% 24.4%

East Nusa Tenggara

-101.0% -68.8% -70.6% -101.4% -89.4% -10.0% 32.2% -1.8% -30.8% 12.0%

Riau Islands -65.2% -25.2% -40.9% -155.4% -117.9% 9.5% 39.9% -15.6% -114.6% 37.5%

Recovery Indonesia (benchmark)

113,322 81,113 70,573 34,451 20,458 -36% -28% -13% -51% -41%

Jakarta 4,927 3,599 2,439 1,916 1,210 7% -27% -32% -21% -37%

West Java 17,204 8,453 4,516 2,655 1,863 -62% -51% -47% -41% -30%

East Java 9,485 5,836 4,480 2,694 1,727 -47% -38% -23% -40% -36%

Central Java 10,882 6,696 12,529 3,393 1,652 44% -38% 87% -73% -51%

Banten 2,691 1,566 1,142 662 346 -28% -42% -27% -42% -48%

Yogya 7,426 4,413 3,046 1,960 963 -15% -41% -31% -36% -51%

Bali 4,129 2,482 3,033 1,397 1,251 -33% -40% 22% -54% -10%

North Sumatra 6,983 11,935 7,302 2,351 1,412 -37% 71% -39% -68% -40%

West Sumatra 2,408 2,010 1,588 970 825 -38% -17% -21% -39% -15%

South Sumatra 1,687 1,233 620 453 262 -54% -27% -50% -27% -42%

Aceh 1,965 2,186 1,931 3,340 764 12% 11% -12% 73% -77%

Riau 4,061 2,813 1,351 955 759 -35% -31% -52% -29% -21%

South Sulawesi 3,946 2,220 1,328 847 597 -37% -44% -40% -36% -30%

East Kalimantan 4,864 3,719 2,237 1,489 1,027 -28% -24% -40% -33% -31%

South Kalimantan 5,639 2,327 1,493 824 720 -3% -59% -36% -45% -13%

Papua 265 1,900 9,384 172 183 -61% 617% 394% -98% 6% West Nusa Tenggara

831 778 462 326 193 -29% -6% -41% -29% -41%

East Nusa Tenggara

2,610 1,726 1,113 874 612 -41% -34% -36% -21% -30%

Riau Islands 867 526 425 508 223 -29% -39% -19% 20% -56%

Recovery rate Indonesia (benchmark)

205.3% 210.7% 303.5% 199.7% 181.5% 16.7% 5.4% 92.8% -103.8% -18.2%

Jakarta 172.9% 175.6% 171.9% 178.9% 125.3% 55.1% 2.6% -3.7% 7.0% -53.6%

West Java 317.2% 214.4% 226.5% 187.4% 173.8% 91.4% -102.9% 12.1% -39.1% -13.6%

East Java 164.4% 162.7% 174.9% 170.8% 163.1% -35.9% -1.6% 12.2% -4.1% -7.8%





30 Aug- 5 Sept'21

6-12 Sept'21

13-19 Sept'21

20-26 Sept'21

27 Sept - 3 Oct'21

%wow 30 Aug-

5 Sept'21 6-12

Sept'21 13-19

Sept'21 20-26


Central Java 213.5% 170.5% 596.9% 181.3% 151.0% 87.1% -42.9% 426.4% -415.6% -30.3%

Banten 241.3% 240.6% 248.8% 155.4% 100.6% 24.8% -0.8% 8.2% -93.4% -54.8%

Yogya 294.4% 318.9% 345.0% 313.6% 215.4% 101.0% 24.4% 26.1% -31.4% -98.2%

Bali 171.9% 147.0% 262.4% 164.5% 212.8% 17.2% -24.9% 115.4% -97.8% 48.2%

North Sumatra 172.3% 471.0% 476.6% 211.8% 274.7% -9.1% 298.7% 5.6% -264.8% 62.9%

West Sumatra 228.2% 254.1% 316.3% 274.0% 327.4% 48.5% 25.9% 62.2% -42.3% 53.4%

South Sumatra 285.0% 222.2% 172.2% 221.0% 218.3% -0.3% -62.8% -49.9% 48.8% -2.6%

Aceh 99.1% 145.1% 196.8% 524.3% 240.3% 24.4% 46.0% 51.8% 327.5% -284.1%

Riau 204.1% 226.9% 190.6% 153.5% 213.2% 13.7% 22.8% -36.3% -37.0% 59.7%

South Sulawesi 234.2% 188.8% 165.0% 150.2% 164.5% 2.6% -45.4% -23.8% -14.8% 14.3%

East Kalimantan 166.9% 199.1% 209.5% 172.9% 216.7% 3.1% 32.2% 10.4% -36.5% 43.7%

South Kalimantan 326.1% 203.8% 262.9% 209.1% 272.7% 97.9% -122.4% 59.1% -53.7% 63.6%

Papua 44.1% 443.9% 3450.0% 71.7% 113.7% -40.4% 399.8% 3006.1% -3378.3% 42.0% West Nusa Tenggara

126.1% 138.7% 151.0% 167.2% 143.0% -15.8% 12.6% 12.3% 16.2% -24.2%

East Nusa Tenggara

195.8% 166.1% 167.9% 197.3% 185.5% 7.2% -29.7% 1.8% 29.4% -11.8%

Riau Islands 155.7% 120.6% 131.6% 251.5% 210.4% -11.4% -35.0% 10.9% 119.9% -41.1%

Fatality Indonesia (benchmark)

3,938 3,028 1,579 999 706 -29% -23% -48% -37% -29%

Jakarta 90 95 1,970 24 31 14% 6% 1974% -99% 29%

West Java 413 651 75 66 34 -55% 58% -88% -12% -48%

East Java 772 387 169 130 81 -36% -50% -56% -23% -38%

Central Java 724 502 253 103 100 37% -31% -50% -59% -3%

Banten 23 17 11 11 7 -52% -26% -35% 0% -36%

Yogya 188 91 70 41 29 -9% -52% -23% -41% -29%

Bali 172 120 104 78 41 -48% -30% -13% -25% -47%

North Sumatra 113 148 168 54 33 -49% 31% 14% -68% -39%

West Sumatra 48 39 26 30 13 -44% -19% -33% 15% -57%

South Sumatra 74 44 29 21 17 -42% -41% -34% -28% -19%

Aceh 128 138 99 102 63 0% 8% -28% 3% -38%

Riau 166 113 62 42 22 -14% -32% -45% -32% -48%

South Sulawesi 103 50 39 18 12 -14% -51% -22% -54% -33%

East Kalimantan 136 98 69 19 21 -36% -28% -30% -72% 11%

South Kalimantan 91 66 23 11 40 -41% -27% -65% -52% 264%

Papua 4 18 43 45 44 -20% 350% 139% 5% -2% West Nusa Tenggara

29 23 19 9 6 -24% -21% -17% -53% -33%

East Nusa Tenggara

69 28 18 18 13 23% -59% -36% 0% -28%

Riau Islands 53 20 30 8 8 -4% -62% 50% -73% 0%

Fatality rate Indonesia (benchmark)

7.1% 7.9% 6.8% 5.8% 6.3% 1.3% 0.7% -1.1% -1.0% 0.5%

Jakarta 3.2% 4.6% 138.8% 2.2% 3.2% 1.1% 1.5% 134.2% -136.6% 1.0%

West Java 7.6% 16.5% 3.8% 4.7% 3.2% 3.0% 8.9% -12.7% 0.9% -1.5%

East Java 13.4% 10.8% 6.6% 8.2% 7.6% -0.3% -2.6% -4.2% 1.6% -0.6%

Central Java 14.2% 12.8% 12.1% 5.5% 9.1% 5.4% -1.4% -0.7% -6.5% 3.6%

Banten 2.1% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.0% -0.7% 0.5% -0.2% 0.2% -0.5%

Yogya 7.5% 6.6% 7.9% 6.6% 6.5% 2.9% -0.9% 1.4% -1.4% -0.1%

Bali 7.2% 7.1% 9.0% 9.2% 7.0% -1.0% -0.1% 1.9% 0.2% -2.2%

North Sumatra 2.8% 5.8% 11.0% 4.9% 6.4% -0.9% 3.1% 5.1% -6.1% 1.6%





30 Aug- 5 Sept'21

6-12 Sept'21

13-19 Sept'21

20-26 Sept'21

27 Sept - 3 Oct'21

%wow 30 Aug-

5 Sept'21 6-12

Sept'21 13-19

Sept'21 20-26


West Sumatra 4.5% 4.9% 5.2% 8.5% 5.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 3.3% -3.3%

South Sumatra 12.5% 7.9% 8.1% 10.2% 14.2% 2.6% -4.6% 0.1% 2.2% 3.9%

Aceh 6.5% 9.2% 10.1% 16.0% 19.8% 1.0% 2.7% 0.9% 5.9% 3.8%

Riau 8.3% 9.1% 8.7% 6.8% 6.2% 2.4% 0.8% -0.4% -2.0% -0.6%

South Sulawesi 6.1% 4.3% 4.8% 3.2% 3.3% 1.7% -1.9% 0.6% -1.7% 0.1%

East Kalimantan 4.7% 5.2% 6.5% 2.2% 4.4% -0.5% 0.6% 1.2% -4.3% 2.2%

South Kalimantan 5.3% 5.8% 4.0% 2.8% 15.2% -0.8% 0.5% -1.7% -1.3% 12.4%

Papua 0.7% 4.2% 15.8% 18.8% 27.3% 0.1% 3.5% 11.6% 2.9% 8.6% West Nusa Tenggara

4.4% 4.1% 6.2% 4.6% 4.4% -0.2% -0.3% 2.1% -1.6% -0.2%

East Nusa Tenggara

5.2% 2.7% 2.7% 4.1% 3.9% 2.8% -2.5% 0.0% 1.3% -0.1%

Riau Islands 9.5% 4.6% 9.3% 4.0% 7.5% 1.9% -4.9% 4.7% -5.3% 3.6%

Source: Ministry of Health, Mandiri Sekuritas

Inggrid Gondoprastowo, CFA (+6221 5296 9450) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected] Eimi Setiawan (+6221 5296 9549) [email protected]

BTPN Syariah: Swift Recovery Underway (BTPS; Rp3,400; Buy; TP: Rp4,000)

We decreased our net profit forecast for 2021F-2022F by 9%-11% as we factored in higher credit cost and lower loan growth forecast due to second wave of Covid-19. We now expect BTPS to post swift ROE recovery and maintain its double-digit loan growth given its agility and ability to retain customers. Retain Buy.

NIM to recover gradually. We project NIM to recover gradually to 26.9%-28.5% for 2021F-2023F, from 24.3% in 2020. We attribute NIM recovery to stronger loan growth and lower restructured balance. Higher vaccination rate and contained Covid-19 cases should allow for more business and school reopening. This, in turn, will lead to improvement in loan demand and more customers being able to pay their dues again. We expect loan growth of 14%-17% for 2021F-2023F vs. 6% in 2020.

Built in higher credit cost forecast. We raised our credit cost projection to 7.3%/4.4%/3.4% in 2021F/2022F/2023F to consider rising restructured balance due to the Covid-19 second wave. We expect majority of customers under moratorium caused by the second wave to be able to pay again and view that BTPS’ plan to vaccinate its entire employee will reduce risk of future loan delinquency. Also, we project coverage ratio to decline to 252%/253%/254% in 2021F/2022F/2023F from 457% in 2020, as we expect BTPS to write off majority of the provision build up in 2020 and 2021F.

Better efficiency through multiple initiatives. We expect BTPS to report cost to income ratio of 39.2%-40.6% in 2021F-2023F, from 44.7% in 2020. We attribute better efficiency level to BTPS’ continued cost control and strong loan growth. These will be driven by BTPS’ new collection strategy through Trusted Person and its new transaction process for banking and e-commerce transaction through Mitra Tepat Agents. We see that the new initiatives will drive higher loan balance per employee and customer per employee.

Maintain Buy rating with new TP of Rp4,000 (from previously Rp4,500). Our new TP implies 3.6x/2.9x P/BV for 2022F/2023F. We cut our net profit forecast by 9%-11% for 2021F-2022F as we built in higher credit cost and slower loan growth forecast. Key downside risks: i) heightened competition; ii) NPL spike; and iii) additional mobility restrictions.

CORPORATE




EARNINGS REVISION Year-end Dec 31

New Old Change (%)

(IDRbn) 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E

Net interest income 3,540 4,345 5,259 6,465 4,319 5,552 n/a 0.6 (5.3) n/a

Total Income 3,562 4,366 5,284 6,495 4,344 5,583 n/a 0.5 (5.4) n/a

Provision expenses (850) (797) (549) (492) (491) (510) n/a 62.3 7.7 n/a

Operating expenses (1,592) (1,774) (2,135) (2,543) (1,795) (2,543) n/a (1.2) (16.1) n/a

PPOP 1,970 2,592 3,149 3,951 2,549 3,364 n/a 1.7 (6.4) n/a

Operating Profit 1,120 1,795 2,600 3,459 2,057 2,854 n/a (12.8) (8.9) n/a

Reported Net Profit 855 1,449 2,030 2,703 1,597 2,286 n/a (9.3) (11.2) n/a

Loan growth 5.8 14.5 15.0 16.6 15.6 16.6 n/a

Deposit growth 3.5 13.9 16.6 18.7 14.5 18.1 n/a

LDR 97.4 97.8 96.5 94.9 95.1 93.9 n/a

NPL 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.8 n/a

Coverage ratio 466.5 252.0 253.0 254.0 245.8 225.8 n/a

Cost of Credit 8.9 7.3 4.4 3.4 4.6 4.1 n/a

Write Off/ Total Loans 3.2 5.0 2.3 1.8 9.0 4.3 n/a

NIM 24.3 26.9 28.0 28.5 26.6 28.6 n/a

Cost to income 44.7 40.6 40.4 39.2 41.3 39.8 n/a

ROA 5.4 8.3 10.0 11.1 9.2 10.9 n/a

ROE 15.2 22.5 26.4 28.4 24.5 28.2 n/a

CAR 49.4 54.2 56.9 60.3 40.5 43.4 n/a

Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Research

OUR ESTIMATES VERSUS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES Mansek Consensus Difference

2021F 2022F 2023F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2021F 2022F 2023F

Pretax Profit (Rp bn) 1,785 2,603 3,465 1,901 2,392 2,844 -6% 9% 22%

Net Profit (Rp bn) 1,449 2,030 2,703 1,460 1,852 2,218 -1% 10% 22%

DPS (Rp) 32 56 79 39 69 89 -18% -18% -11%

BVPS (Rp) 911 1,118 1,390 939 1,136 1,357 -3% -2% 2%

Source: Bloomberg (for consensus estimates), Mandiri Sekuritas Research

Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) [email protected] Kresna Hutabarat (+6221 5296 9542) [email protected]




Some Details on Tax Amnesty II In the tax reform draft bill, the government prepares to conduct Tax Amnesty II in Jan-Jun 2022. The amnesty tariffs are slated at 6–11% for assets acquired in 1985-2015 and 12–18% for those acquired in 2016-2020 (vs. 2–10% in Tax Amnesty I). The asset diversion and reinvestment should be realized on 30-Sep-2022 at the latest with minimum time span of 5 years for the later. If the tax subject cannot meet the reinvestment target, it may be imposed additional final income tax of 3.0-7.5%. (Kontan)

Grab buys majority stake in Ovo from Tokopedia, Lippo Group (4 October 2021) Grab Holdings Inc. is increasing its Indonesian mobile wallet provider Ovo ownership to about 90% by acquiring stakes from PT Tokopedia and Lippo Group. Ovo is Indonesia’s largest mobile wallet with a 38% market share in the country, according to the 2021 Mobile Payments Report 2021 by Boku. Singapore-based Grab, which plans to go public via a merger with Altimeter Growth Corp. by the end of this year, increased its holding in PT Bumi Cakrawala Perkasa, Ovo’s parent, from about 39% to about 90%, according to a filing with the ministry of legal affairs. The fate of Ovo has been thrown into question due to the e-commerce platform Tokopedia merged with Gojek, a ride-hailing company that is Grab’s primary competition in the region. The combined GoTo, an internet giant in Indonesia, held a stake in Ovo alongside Grab, as the companies vied for leadership in Southeast Asia. By buying out Tokopedia and Lippo, Grab can resolve those conflicts and focus on boosting its financial services in the region. Additionally, Grab is in the process of selling a slice of its Ovo stake to Indonesian investors to comply with the country’s regulations, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named. (Bloomberg) Jeff Bezos Invest in Indonesia E-commerce startup Ula (4 October 2021) Amazon founder Jeff Bezos participated in an $87 million Series B funding for Indonesian startup Ula, marking his first-ever investment in Southeast Asia’s e-commerce space. Bezos Expeditions, Northstar group, AC Ventures, and Citius joined the round co-led by Prosus Ventures, Tencent, and B-Capital, the e-commerce marketplace Ula said in a statement on Monday. The previous fundraising included a $10.5 million seed round in June 2020 and an additional $20 million Series A round in January. The startup that offers technology solutions to small retailers is seeking to expand its base to include more cities in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. Explore overseas expansion across the region, develop the buy-now-pay-later offering, and build the local supply chain and logistics infrastructure. (Bloomberg)

FROM THE PRESS




KLBF acquired back 23.81% stake on Medika Komunika Teknologi (KlikDokter) from Kreatif Media Karya (EMTK’s subsidiary). According to our check, transaction was done at par value and is part of consolidation to hv full control in apps development going forward. Post transaction KLBF ultimately owns 100% of KlikDokter through several subsidiaries. (Company)




Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 4 Oct-21

Testing: Daily specimens tested reached 212k, daily people tested reached to 147k yesterday.

New cases: Indo booked new cases of 922 yesterday. Jakarta recorded 149 new cases yesterday.

Infection rate: Daily national infection rate reached 0.6% yesterday (3DMA 0.8%/7DMA 0.9%). Jakarta daily infection rate reached 1.1% (3DMA 0.8%/7DMA 0.9%). Ex Jakarta daily infection rate was at 0.6% (3DMA 0.9%/7DMA 0.9%).

Regions with >100 daily cases: Jakarta (+149)

Vaccine progress: Total vaccine administered yesterday was 776k doses (7DMA 1.6mn). 94.2mn people (45.2% total target) have received first shot, 53.0mn people (25.5% total target) have received second shot. 963k medical workers hv received booster shot (65.5% target).

COVID-19 INDONESIA




Inggrid Gondoprastowo, CFA (+6221 5296 9450) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]




Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities

Indices Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

Currency Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

JCI 6,342.7 +1.8 +6.1 Rp/US$ 14,268 -0.01 -1.5 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 77.62 +2.3 +60.0

Dow Jones 34,002.9 -0.9 +11.1 US$/EUR 1.162 +0.22 +5.1 Copper (US$/mt) 9,251 +1.3 +19.1

Nikkei 28,444.9 -1.1 +3.6 YEN/US$ 110.93 -0.11 -6.9 Nickel (US$/mt) 17,924 -0.3 +7.9

Hang Seng 24,036.4 -2.2 -11.7 SGD/US$ 1.357 -0.01 -2.6 Gold (US$/oz) 1,770 +0.5 -6.8

STI 3,089.7 +1.3 +8.6 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 34,450 +1.8 +69.5

Ishares indo 22.4 +2.2 -4.6 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 4,583 +1.7 +27.3

Coal (US$/ton) 240.0 +5.3 +198.1

Foreign Fund Flows (US$mn)

Last Chg YTD Chg

Gov. Bond Yield

Last Chg

(bps)

YTD Chg

(bps) Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 181.0 +1.8 -18.6

Equity Flow +139.7 +1,278 5Yr 5.10 -1 -11 Soybean oil (US$/100gallons)

58.57 -0.1 +35.2

Bonds Flow -83.4 -51 10Yr 6.22 -2 +34 Baltic Dry Index 5,202.0 +1.0 +280.8




Equity Valuation Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield

Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022

MANSEK universe 6,343 6,850 8.0 4,555,606 239,833 276,751 19.0 16.5 2.3 2.1 13.7 13.0 49.4% 15.4% 2.6% 2.8%

Banking 1,989,208 87,635 113,816 22.6 17.6 2.4 2.3 N.A. N.A. 38.9% 29.9% 1.8% 2.3%

BBCA Buy 34,800 38,000 9.2 857,994 30,524 34,015 28.1 25.2 4.6 4.1 N.A. N.A. 12.5% 11.4% 1.7% 1.8%

BBNI Buy 5,700 8,000 40.4 106,297 9,021 15,727 11.8 6.8 0.9 0.8 N.A. N.A. 175.0% 74.3% 0.8% 2.1%

BBRI Buy 3,970 5,200 31.0 587,009 28,840 39,497 20.4 14.9 2.1 1.9 N.A. N.A. 28.2% 37.0% 2.9% 4.0%

BBTN Buy 1,530 2,200 43.8 16,203 2,153 2,660 7.5 6.1 0.8 0.7 N.A. N.A. 34.4% 23.5% 0.1% 0.0%

BDMN Buy 2,760 4,100 48.6 26,975 3,538 4,034 7.5 6.6 0.6 0.5 N.A. N.A. 71.5% 14.0% 2.7% 4.6%

BJBR Neutral 1,450 1,700 17.2 14,266 1,744 2,023 8.2 7.1 1.2 1.1 N.A. N.A. 11.3% 16.0% 6.8% 6.9%

BJTM Buy 750 900 20.0 11,252 1,557 1,810 7.2 6.2 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. 10.0% 16.3% 6.7% 7.0%

BNGA Buy 1,010 1,300 28.7 25,383 3,309 4,229 7.7 6.0 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. 44.6% 27.8% 3.6% 5.2%

BNLI Neutral 1,720 2,900 68.6 79,112 1,170 2,366 47.8 36.7 2.2 2.8 N.A. N.A. 10.5% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0%

PNBN Buy 760 1,400 84.2 18,302 3,405 3,829 5.4 4.8 0.5 0.4 N.A. N.A. 12.9% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0%

BTPS Buy 3,400 4,000 17.6 26,193 1,449 2,030 18.1 12.9 3.7 3.0 N.A. N.A. 69.5% 40.2% 0.9% 1.7%

BFIN Buy 1,005 475 (52.7) 15,039 841 1,196 17.9 12.6 2.1 1.8 N.A. N.A. 7.7% 42.3% 1.6% 2.0%

ARTO Buy 14,500 22,000 51.7 200,916 -34 242 -5,947.5 828.7 24.4 23.7 N.A. N.A. 86.0% N/M 0.0% 0.0%

AMOR Buy 3,840 4,700 22.4 4,267 100 139 42.8 30.6 13.7 13.4 33.1 24.1 18.9% 39.8% 2.3% 3.1%

Construction & materials 158,443 4,579 7,095 34.6 22.3 1.3 1.3 13.3 11.3 N/M 54.9% 2.0% 2.1%

INTP Buy 10,075 16,230 61.1 37,088 1,764 2,255 21.0 16.4 1.7 1.8 9.4 8.3 -2.4% 27.9% 7.2% 7.0%

SMGR Buy 8,275 12,590 52.1 49,083 2,755 3,328 17.8 14.7 1.3 1.2 8.1 7.1 -1.3% 20.8% 0.6% 1.1%

ADHI Neutral 1,095 890 (18.7) 3,899 93 234 41.9 16.7 0.7 0.7 9.3 8.1 288.0% 151.3% 0.1% 0.5%

PTPP Neutral 1,170 1,050 (10.3) 7,254 274 348 26.5 20.9 0.7 0.7 10.0 8.6 112.9% 26.9% 0.5% 1.1%

WIKA Neutral 1,330 1,100 (17.3) 11,917 282 470 42.2 25.4 0.9 0.8 15.4 12.4 52.0% 66.5% 0.5% 0.8%

WSKT Neutral 960 1,030 7.3 12,846 -1,261 -1,909 -10.2 -6.7 2.0 2.9 66.7 42.9 82.9% -51.4% 0.0% 0.0%

WTON Neutral 286 270 (5.6) 2,493 95 190 26.2 13.1 0.7 0.7 7.8 6.1 -25.6% 99.8% 1.5% 1.1%

WSBP Neutral 164 140 (14.6) 4,323 -510 -484 -8.5 -8.9 6.7 10.3 45.3 36.0 89.3% 5.1% 0.0% -5.9%

JSMR Buy 4,070 6,640 63.1 29,540 1,087 2,663 27.2 11.1 1.5 1.3 11.8 10.2 117.0% 145.0% 0.3% 0.7%

Consumer staples 649,614 38,981 45,057 16.7 14.4 3.2 3.0 10.6 9.7 -8.5% 15.6% 4.9% 4.7%

ICBP Buy 8,650 12,250 41.6 100,876 6,674 7,670 15.1 13.2 3.1 2.7 11.3 10.4 1.3% 14.9% 3.2% 3.3%

INDF Buy 6,425 9,800 52.5 56,411 5,558 6,207 10.1 9.1 1.3 1.2 7.1 7.0 -13.9% 11.7% 6.8% 5.9%

MYOR Buy 2,310 2,600 12.6 51,649 2,190 2,466 23.6 20.9 4.1 3.6 13.5 12.1 -9.2% 12.6% 1.8% 1.6%

UNVR Buy 3,980 5,750 44.5 151,837 6,027 6,647 25.2 22.8 40.9 35.9 17.5 16.3 -15.9% 10.3% 4.7% 4.0%

GGRM Buy 32,475 37,800 16.4 62,485 5,328 6,591 11.7 9.5 1.1 1.0 7.2 6.5 -30.3% 23.7% 8.0% 8.0%

HMSP Buy 1,050 1,750 66.7 122,134 8,189 9,964 14.9 12.3 4.1 3.9 9.9 8.3 -4.6% 21.7% 7.1% 6.8%

KLBF Buy 1,380 1,600 15.9 64,688 2,939 3,076 22.0 21.0 3.4 3.2 14.5 13.7 8.7% 4.7% 2.5% 2.5%

SIDO Buy 770 980 27.3 23,100 1,011 1,136 22.8 20.3 6.9 6.6 17.0 15.5 10.9% 12.4% 3.8% 4.3%

MLBI Buy 7,800 13,250 69.9 16,435 1,063 1,299 15.5 12.7 12.6 10.7 9.9 8.3 656.9% 22.1% 0.9% 6.5%

Healthcare 65,355 2,357 1,821 27.7 35.9 4.3 4.0 12.1 14.7 64.7% -22.8% 1.0% 1.3%

MIKA Buy 2,300 3,200 39.1 32,767 1,099 1,016 29.8 32.2 5.8 5.3 20.1 22.2 30.6% -7.6% 1.1% 1.4%

SILO Buy 9,375 12,000 28.0 15,242 722 359 21.1 42.5 2.4 2.3 6.0 8.4 521.2% -50.3% 1.5% 1.9%

HEAL Buy 1,165 1,300 11.6 17,347 536 446 32.4 38.9 5.8 5.1 13.3 14.7 -77.3% -16.9% 0.4% 0.5%

Consumer discretionary 328,819 24,340 28,796 13.5 11.4 1.5 1.4 9.1 8.0 29.2% 18.3% 2.7% 3.1%

ACES Buy 1,305 1,750 34.1 22,381 779 1,027 28.7 21.8 4.1 3.8 19.1 14.9 6.3% 31.8% 2.5% 2.6%

LPPF Buy 2,840 2,000 (29.6) 7,458 224 839 33.3 8.9 9.3 4.5 8.5 3.9 N/M 274.6% 0.0% 0.0%

MAPA Buy 2,480 3,500 41.1 7,069 385 693 18.4 10.2 2.1 1.7 8.5 5.1 18405.2% 80.2% 0.0% 0.0%

MAPI Buy 775 1,157 49.2 12,865 605 1,023 21.3 12.6 2.2 1.9 6.2 4.5 N/M 69.1% 0.0% 0.9%

RALS Neutral 745 900 20.8 5,287 -41 148 -127.8 35.6 1.4 1.4 70.7 12.0 70.2% N/M 0.0% 0.0%

ERAA Buy 585 950 62.4 9,301 894 1,000 10.4 9.3 1.6 1.4 5.8 5.5 -70.8% 11.9% 3.4% 3.9%

ASII Buy 5,575 6,300 13.0 225,696 18,223 19,950 12.4 11.3 1.4 1.3 9.4 8.8 12.7% 9.5% 3.2% 3.6%

SCMA Neutral 2,000 2,200 10.0 25,301 1,137 1,397 22.3 18.1 5.9 4.8 15.4 13.0 -1.0% 22.9% 1.3% 1.9%

MNCN Buy 860 1,300 51.2 11,377 2,005 2,516 5.7 4.5 0.7 0.6 3.8 3.0 14.7% 25.5% 2.6% 4.4%

PZZA Buy 690 750 8.7 2,085 130 202 16.0 10.3 1.5 1.4 6.1 4.8 N/M 55.5% 0.0% 3.1%

Commodities 407,778 30,120 30,008 13.5 13.6 1.7 1.6 5.9 5.7 154.3% -0.4% 3.2% 2.8%

UNTR Buy 27,100 28,500 5.2 101,087 9,476 9,814 10.7 10.3 1.5 1.4 4.1 3.5 57.8% 3.6% 2.8% 2.9%

ADRO* Buy 1,860 1,800 (3.2) 59,494 398 379 10.5 11.1 1.0 1.0 4.2 4.0 171.0% -4.7% 3.4% 3.2%

INDY* Buy 2,150 1,750 (18.6) 11,202 76 96 10.4 8.2 1.0 0.9 2.5 3.0 N/M 27.4% 2.4% 3.1%




Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield

Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022

ITMG* Buy 24,575 25,000 1.7 26,948 294 205 6.5 9.3 2.1 2.0 3.6 4.7 644.4% -30.1% 13.1% 9.2%

PTBA Buy 2,890 3,300 14.2 33,300 4,530 3,997 7.3 8.3 1.7 1.6 7.1 8.4 89.8% -11.8% 10.2% 9.0%

ANTM Buy 2,310 3,300 42.8 55,511 2,264 2,270 24.5 24.4 2.3 2.2 13.4 12.8 97.0% 0.3% 1.4% 1.4%

INCO* Neutral 4,780 5,200 8.8 47,496 127 164 26.4 20.5 1.6 1.4 8.6 7.2 53.4% 28.9% 0.0% 0.0%

TINS Sell 1,505 1,200 (20.2) 11,209 312 312 35.9 35.9 2.1 2.0 12.5 12.0 N/M -0.1% 1.0% 1.0%

MDKA* Buy 2,810 3,300 17.4 61,532 60 115 72.2 37.6 7.3 6.1 21.5 14.7 66.1% 92.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Property & Industrial Estate 116,516 7,316 7,923 15.9 14.7 0.9 0.9 9.6 9.3 96.8% 8.3% 1.7% 1.7%

ASRI Buy 190 250 31.6 3,733 485 524 7.7 7.1 0.4 0.4 7.7 7.0 N/M 8.0% 1.1% 1.1%

BSDE Buy 1,110 1,630 46.8 23,500 956 1,638 24.6 14.3 0.8 0.7 12.5 8.7 27.8% 71.2% 0.0% 0.0%

CTRA Buy 1,035 1,360 31.4 19,210 1,096 1,111 17.5 17.3 1.2 1.1 10.0 10.1 -17.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9%

SMRA Buy 920 1,100 19.6 15,188 353 559 43.1 27.2 1.8 1.7 12.8 11.2 72.0% 58.4% 0.5% 0.5%

JRPT Buy 476 750 57.6 6,545 917 891 7.1 7.3 0.8 0.7 6.2 6.1 -0.9% -2.8% 4.2% 4.2%

PWON Buy 530 630 18.9 25,525 1,486 1,661 17.2 15.4 1.6 1.5 11.4 10.5 46.4% 11.8% 1.1% 1.1%

LPKR Neutral 163 210 28.8 11,506 913 215 12.6 53.6 0.4 0.4 6.5 9.7 N/M -76.5% 0.6% 0.6%

DMAS Buy 208 300 44.2 10,025 988 1,158 10.1 8.7 1.7 1.7 9.7 8.0 11.7% 17.2% 10.1% 10.1%

BEST Neutral 133 130 (2.3) 1,283 122 167 10.5 7.7 0.3 0.3 9.0 8.0 14.2% 37.4% 0.7% 1.2%

Telecom 571,567 35,914 34,285 15.9 16.7 3.3 3.0 6.4 6.0 42.4% -4.6% 3.5% 3.4%

EXCL Buy 3,010 3,600 19.6 32,055 1,293 1,429 24.8 22.4 1.6 1.5 4.7 4.5 247.9% 10.5% 0.6% 0.8%

TLKM Buy 3,670 4,400 19.9 363,558 23,109 25,586 15.7 14.2 3.3 3.1 5.8 5.4 11.1% 10.7% 4.7% 4.6%

ISAT Buy 6,375 8,000 25.5 34,641 5,948 1,368 5.8 25.3 1.9 1.8 4.3 4.1 N/M -77.0% 0.0% 0.0%

LINK Buy 4,010 5,500 37.2 11,034 996 1,096 11.9 10.8 2.1 1.8 5.2 4.8 5.7% 10.1% 2.7% 3.0%

TBIG Buy 3,010 3,600 19.6 65,109 1,246 1,310 52.2 49.7 7.0 6.5 18.1 17.0 23.4% 5.1% 0.9% 0.9%

TOWR Buy 1,305 1,750 34.1 65,169 3,323 3,496 19.6 18.6 5.5 4.9 11.9 11.2 17.2% 5.2% 2.6% 2.8%

Transportation 3,103 6 217 543.7 14.3 0.6 0.6 7.7 5.3 N/M N/M 0.0% 1.4%

BIRD Buy 1,240 1,530 23.4 3,103 6 217 543.7 14.3 0.6 0.6 7.7 5.3 N/M 3703.9% 0.0% 1.4%

Poultry 127,521 7,683 5,626 16.6 22.7 3.1 2.9 10.0 12.1 62.8% -26.8% 1.7% 2.5%

CPIN Buy 6,325 7,500 18.6 103,717 4,610 3,757 22.5 27.6 4.0 3.8 14.5 16.7 20.0% -18.5% 1.9% 2.2%

JPFA Buy 1,880 2,700 43.6 22,046 2,778 1,672 7.9 13.2 1.7 1.6 5.1 6.8 203.0% -39.8% 1.2% 3.8%

MAIN Buy 785 1,125 43.3 1,757 296 198 5.9 8.9 0.7 0.7 4.6 4.8 N/M -33.1% 0.0% 2.2%

Oil and Gas 51,625 2,307 3,087 22.4 16.7 1.2 1.2 6.8 6.0 N/M 33.8% 1.1% 2.3%

AKRA Buy 4,450 4,500 1.1 17,566 1,142 1,415 15.4 12.4 1.9 1.8 10.1 9.0 24.3% 23.9% 3.3% 4.0%

PGAS* Buy 1,405 1,600 13.9 34,059 82 118 29.2 20.4 1.0 1.0 6.2 5.5 N/M 43.5% 0.0% 1.5%

Internet 86,057 -1,406 -979 -61.2 -87.9 3.9 4.1 -43.0 -57.0 0.4% -30.4% 0.0% 0.0%

BUKA Buy 835 1,400 67.7 86,057 -1,406 -979 -61.2 -87.9 3.9 4.1 -43.0 -57.0 100.0% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Note: - *) net profit in USD mn - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A means Not Applicable


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