Asian Energy Trends and Prospects for Energy Efficiency
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Transcript of Asian Energy Trends and Prospects for Energy Efficiency
Asian Energy Trends and Prospects for Asian Energy Trends and Prospects for Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency
29 May 200829 May 2008
Peter du Pont, Chief of PartyPeter du Pont, Chief of PartyUSAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate ProgramUSAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program
Presented atPresented atTBLI Asia Conference 2008, Bangkok, ThailandTBLI Asia Conference 2008, Bangkok, Thailand
U.S. contributionto offset emissions
of U.S. officials flying to
international Climate Change
meetings
Overview
1. From Ideas to Action: regional analysis of clean energy options
2. Lessons from Thailand’s Energy Efficiency Successes
3. Case Study of Energy-Saving Lamps: How Hard Is It to Make the Change?
From Ideas to Action:From Ideas to Action:Regional Analysis of Asia’s Clean Regional Analysis of Asia’s Clean
Energy Options Energy Options
ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Geographic Coverage
ChinaIndiaIndonesiaPhilippinesThailandVietnam
These 6 countries account for 96% of the GDP of Asia’s developing countries
USAID-funded review of clean energy priorities in Asia
Objectives• Identify clean energy priorities –
technologies, sectors, and initiatives• Identify opportunities for regional action
Methodology• organized “listening tours” with 220 key
energy stakeholders in the 6 countries• researched and prepared more than 300
profiles on clean energy institutions, policies, programs
• prepared in-depth country reports on the clean energy opportunities in the 6 countries
Comparative Evaluation of Fuel Options
Supply-Side Energy• Coal (CCT and carbon storage)• Petroleum• Natural Gas (incl. methane capture)• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar, small
hydro, geothermal, biofuels)• Nuclear
Energy Efficiency• Power generation and transmission
efficiency• End-use efficiency (buildings, appliances,
lighting, industry, transport, etc.)
DEMAND DRIVERS
Economic growth and increased incomes are leading to large increases in energy demand
Source: APERC 2006
UNTAPPED EFFICIENCYBut regional experience shows significant potential for efficiency improvements
100
58
100
46
100
62
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1993 Market Ave. 2000 Market Ave.
No
rmal
ized
Ele
ctri
city
Use
Refrig-Freezers(42% improvement)
Air Conditioners(54% improvement)
Fluorescent Lamps(38% improvement)
Efficiency gains in Korean appliances – 1993 to 2000
Source: Sun-Keun Lee, 2001
OIL AND ENERGY SECURITYSoutheast Asia will import 70% of its oil by 2030
Source: APEC 2006
Imported Oil as Share of Total Oil Consumption
Source: BP Statistics 2006
The share of primary energy from coal has risen from 43% in 1980, to 48% in 2005, and is projected to reach 51% in 2030.
Note: This data includes all of Asia, not just developing Asia
COAL RELIANCE (1)Coal is the “fuel of choice” for the next 15-20 years to meet demand
Primary Energy Mix for Asian Countries, 1980 to 2005
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
COAL RELIANCE (2)Share of coal increasing dramatically in India, ASEAN
Note: Thailand data are for 2021, not 2030
Criteria pollutant levels in Asian megacities
Local air pollution has been linked to more than 500,000 premature deaths annually in Asia (WHO)
LOCAL AIR POLLUTIONFossil Fuels Lead to High Particulate Levels
Current26 billion metric tons CO2
203040 billion metric tons CO2
Source: APERC, TERI
INCREASING CO2 EMISSIONS Developing Asia’s CO2 Emissions Will Increase 4-Fold
Projected CO2 Emissions by Sector (2002 - 2030)
2002 2030Source: APERC, TERI
ELECTRICITY IS MAJOR SOURCEMore than half of CO2 emissions from power plants
What is the Answer? There is no Single Silver Bullet
Coal• Expected nearly 4-fold increase in consumption by 2030, will lead to 13
billion metric tons of annual CO2 by 2030Petroleum• Import dependency to increase drastically (exporters turn into
importers; others will import 70-90% of their needs)Natural Gas• By 2030, countries will import between 40-75 percent of their needs. Nuclear • Even with massive investment, nuclear projected to supply only
approx. 4-8% of primary energy needs by 2030 (China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam)
Renewable Sources• Even with major expansion, current estimates project renewables to
account for 5-10% of future energy needs by 2030
Estimated energy delivery costs by clean energy type
Typical cost ofavoided electricity generation(about 6-7 US cents/kWh)
Sources: Compiled from Sims et al, 2003; Sawin 2004; LBNL, 2005 and IEA, 2006
The “least cost” options are energy efficiency, and they cost ¼ to ½ as much as building a new power plant
19
Costs of carbon reductions by clean energy option
A number of options can reduce CO2 emissions at no net cost
Ranking of clean energy options for regional cooperation
Top 6 priority clean energy technologies and sectors for regional cooperation
• Energy-efficient lighting and appliances• Clean coal technologies• Renewable energy technologies
(esp. onshore wind energy and biomass-fired electricity)
• Energy-efficiency in the transport sector• Biofuels for transportation• Methane capture
Implementing Just These Options Can Reduce Future Emissions from Asia’s Developing Economies by 25%
Thailands’ Energy EfficiencySuccess Story:
Smart Policy and FinanceNeeded to Stimulate EE
Thailand’s DSM Initiatives – Focusing on the Residential Sector
Source: EGAT
Successful Implementation of DSM in Thailand
Programs
AS of March 31, 2006
Peak Demand Energy Consumption Carbon Dioxide
Reduction Reduction Emission Reduction
(MW) (GWh) (Million tons)
1. 36 and 18 Watt Fluorescent Lamp Program 401.5 1,957.5 1.45
2. Energy Efficient Compact Fluorescent 10.0 57.2 0.04
Lamp Program
3. Energy Efficient Refrigerator Program 236.3 2,357.9 1.74
4. Energy Efficient Air-conditioner Program 640.7 2,686.2 1.87
5. Street Light Program - 17.22 0.01
6. Energy Efficient Ballast Program 13.8 85.0 0.06
7. High Efficiency Motor Program 0.2 1.2 -
8. Green Building Program 2.6 10.3 0.01
Total 1,304.8 7,172.5 5.18
Source: Source: DSM in Thailand: The EGAT Experience. DSM in Thailand: The EGAT Experience. Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, Director, DSM & Planning Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, Director, DSM & Planning Division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy Efficiency Division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy Efficiency in Power Distribution and End Use Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006in Power Distribution and End Use Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006
Thailand Benchmarked Against U.S. Utilities(Cumulative Annual Energy Savings as a Percentage of Annual Utility Energy
Sales)RANK STATE PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL
KWH SALES
1 Connecticut 8.3%
2 California 7.8%
3 Minnesota 7.6%
4 Washington 7.5%
5 Vermont 7.1%
6 Oregon 6.4%
7 Massachusetts 6.3%
8 Rhode Island 6.2%
THAILAND 5.2%
9 Wisconsin 4.8%
10 Montana 4.3%
U.S. Average 2.1%
Source: EGAT data for Thailand. U.S. data from ACEEE. A Nationwide Assessment of Utility Sector Energy Efficiency. August 2006.
Cost Comparison of Clean Energy Options
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
The 30
% S
ubsidy
Progra
m
EE Rev
olvin
g Fund
DSM
Biogas
Ele
ctric
ity G
ener
atio
n
Mix
ed Conve
ntional
Ene
rgy (7
0% N
G)
Min
i-hyd
ro, 2
00 k
W-6
MW
Biom
ass
Conden
sing, 2
0 M
W
Win
d Far
m, 2
0,00
0 kW
MSW
Inci
nerat
ion,
3,0
00 k
W
Solar P
V, larg
e sc
ale,
460
kW
Cap
ital
Co
st (
Bah
t/kW
)
฿0
฿2
฿4
฿6
฿8
฿10
฿12
฿14
Gen
erat
ing
Co
st (
Bah
t/kW
h)
Cost of Delivered Electricity
Capital Cost
Demand Side Measures
Supply Side Measures
Commercial Costs of DSM/EE and NT2 Resources
0.92
2.3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
DSM/Energy Efficiency NT2 Electricity
Energy Resource
Co
st
of
De
liv
ere
d E
ne
rgy
(T
HB
/kW
h)
DSM/EE is 40% of the cost of NT2
Comparison of DSM/EE Potentials
1,373982
2,207
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
DSM/EE plans in 2002Load Forecast
DSM/EE assumed in2002 Load Forecast
DSM/EE in World BankStudy
Report or Study
Pea
k M
W R
edu
ctio
n i
n 2
011
Average cost of DSM/EE is THB 0.92/kWh
1,225 MW of DSM potential not included in PDP
Energy-Saving Lamps:Poster Child for a Climate
Success, or a Market Failure?
Phase-Out of Inefficient Lighting
• 40 countries have announced plans to “phase out” inefficient lamps within the next five years
• Technically, the solution is relatively straightforward More efficient incandescents,
halogens, CFLs, and LEDs Some problems with scale-up and
transition
• Complete phase out could reduce annual electricity use by 800 TWh and avoid 470 million tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2010
Emergence of Compact Fluorescent Lamps, or CFLs
32
Global CFL Sales
Estimating Market Size
Annual Sales Volume (in million units)
Country 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
China (Production) 750 800 1,040 1,380 1,760 2,400
India NA 34 40 46 70* 100*
Indonesia 40 50 60 70 90
Philippines 4.5 NA NA 18 25* NA
Thailand NA NA NA NA 10 15
Vietnam NA NA 5.4 7.0 8.4 11*
Estimated Global CFL Sales and Chinese Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Nu
mb
er o
f C
FL
s
Chinese production (CALI data)
Post-1997 sales estimated
Global CFL sales
Source: IAEEL for pre-1997 data; CALI and ECO-Asia estimates for post-2007
Rum Smugglers circa 1810
So, What is the Problem?
CFL Lamp Smugglers circa 2007
Up to 50% of CFLs Produced in Asia are Shoddy
Market Share by Quality
CountryExport Quality
CFLs (%)
High Quality CFLs (%)
Medium Quality CFLs
(%)
Low Quality CFLs (%)
China 15 30 40 15India NA NA NA NAIndonesia 36 18 26 20Philippines NA 68 8 24Thailand NA NA NA NAVietnam 17 44 0 39
Source: Australian Green House Office Reports 2006, and ECO-Asia 2007
•Generally speaking, a poor-quality CFL is a lamp that burns out faster, or gives off less light, than advertised, or than prescribed by national standards and guidelines.
Worldwide, There are 43 Different Sets of Specifications for CFLs (Vary by Country)
Efficacy level per Wattage
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Watts
Lu
men
/W
Thailand
Philippines
Indonesia-1S
Indonesia-2S
Indonesia-3S
Indonesia-4S
CALI1
CALI2
CALI3
CNIS
Vietnam
ELI
CECP
ES
ES-P
Korea
Global CFL MarketGrowth and levelling out of global CFL demand
• Global CFLi demand has surged from 1.5 Bn (2006) to 2.5 Bio in 2008• Already from 2010 the CFLi demand growth slows down followed by levelling off to a
level of around 4.2 Bn as from 2014• It is imperative to improve & secure adequate product quality levels in this process
CFL I market
0500
1.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.500
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
vo
lum
e(m
ln)
Initial CFL I Replacement CFL I
Source: Philips Lighting
The Way Forward
• USAID ECO-Asia CDCP is working with suppliers to develop a voluntary Quality Identification System for CFLs sold in Asia
• The system will classify CFLs as “Good,” “Better,” and “Best”
• Hopefully, this will become an international system for identifying and marking CFL quality
www.CleanEnergyAsia.net
Thank You!