ASES July 2006 Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and...

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge

ASES Forum

Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy

Thursday 10:30am to 12:00pm

Ron Swenson


Swenson’s Law


Roscoe Bartlett

“It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful.”


Energy Scoreboard

Primary challenges are:

• EROEI

• Global Warming

• Scalability

• Timing


Why leave out Economics?

• Economics is an instrument of policy.

• It’s the last step in the process:–First figure out what works…–Then create incentives.


EROEI

• Energy Returned On Energy Invested

• ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)


EROEI for PV• EPBT: 5 years

• Life: 50 years

• Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROEI = 1030 ~ electric


EROEI for Thin Film PV

• EPBT: 6 months

• Life: 20 years

EROEI = 40120 ~electric


EROEI for Wind• EPBT: 3 months

• Life: 20 years

EROEI = 80240 ~ electric


Global Warming

• Thanks to Al Gore, I can keep this short!


Atmospheric CO2


Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse

• Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35

days• Larger than

Rhode Island• Totally baffled

scientists• 1 down, 4 to go


EROEI for Tar Sands

Plus…• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses

natural gas

• Low EROEI → Greenhouse gasesEROEI = 3?


EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric

EROEI for NuclearPlus …

• Terrorism

• Waste guarded for 10,000+ years

• Depletion → low grade ores →

Greenhouse gases

… How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland?


EROEI for Hydrogen

Am I missing something?!

EROEI = -½


Scalability

Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)

178,000

Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000

Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000

Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000

Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100

Total Energy Used by Human Society 13

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6


Renewable EnergySolar

1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface

600 TW practicalBiomass5-7 TW gross

all cultivatab

le land not used

for foodHydroelectricGeotherma

l

Wind2-4 TW

extractable

4.6 TW gross1.6 TW technically feasible0.9 TW economically feasible0.6 TW installed capacity

12 TW gross over landsmall fraction recoverable

Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross


There is no SilverSilver Bullet.Why SilverSilver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize

that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted.

• Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35• Specific gravity of AgAg = 10.50AgAgAgAg


There is no AgAg Bullet.

• Now I think I follow what you mean.

Let’s find out why….


Corn Ethanol


Corn Ethanol• Energy content 75% from fossil fuels:

– Coal (electricity) > 40%– Natural gas (to heat mash) > 30%– Not to mention fertilizer, tractor & truck fuel

• Photosynthesis 5- 26% • Depletes soil and water supplies • Competes with food resources• Not carbon-neutral


Sugar Cane Ethanol (Brazil)

• Meets 40% of demand

• Brazil per capita use is 10% of US • 40% x 10% = 4%

• Many sugar cane workers are slaves

• Produces aldehydes in exhaust

• Soil and water conditions very different


Cellulosic Ethanol …Photosynthesis:Sunlight ~ 0.25%

Photosynthesis:PV (or STE) ~ 0.5% - 2%

USA: PV on all paved land

0.1 m km2

~ 11 Gb/yr

(150%)

USA: Cellulose from all forests

3 m km2

~ 6 Gb/yr

(80%)

USA: Cellulose from all ag land 1.5 m km2

~ 3 Gb/yr

(40%)


Cellulosic Ethanol

“All we need to do is change the make-up of ~25% of present wooded land space.”

Land to achieve 30 Gb/yr 15 m km2

Global forests 40 m km2


Forest Facts

• Forests cover just under 4 billion hectares, 40 million km2 or 30% of the total land area

• Global deforestation – 13 million hectares

• Net loss of forests – 7.3 million hectares

• 36% of the forest area has had little or no human impact

• Area of forest plantations 140 million hectares and increasing by 2.8 million hectares/year


Without Cellulosic Ethanol


If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841


Ethanol Scorecard

EROEI DGlobal Warming DScalability D+Timing C+


But renewables make electricity, not liquid fuels!?• How do we handle transportation after

peak oil?


Timing

• Application Technology: PRT

• Note distinction between application technology and generation technology.

• In relationship to peak oil and climate change, uses of energy are as critical as sources of energy.


Freeway at Capacity


Vehicles Removed


PRT Passengers


PRT System


Solar PRT


Solar PRT • 10 kw @ 100 mph

• 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval • 360 kw needed in a mile stretch • 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun

• 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun • 720 kw / mile • 8.3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity


Solar PRT Capacity• Skytran: Two people every second

– 7,200 passengers per hour– 72,000 passengers per day

• Rail: – About 8,000 passengers per hour– 60,000 passengers per day – Washington, DC ~ 41,000 pass-mile / route-mile

• Highway: 1.2 average occupancy– 2400 persons per lane / hour


Solar PRT Scorecard

EROEI AGlobal Warming AScalability B-Timing D+


PV: The Growth Industry

OilOil

PVPV

Oil declines at 4%/yr(?)

PV increases at 50%/yr

?


Wake Up!!!

ASES July 2006 Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and...

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