ASEAN Role in Myanmar

David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia, also Indonesia Politic and Defense Consultant. Email: [email protected] phone: +62 81219588360

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ASEAN Role in Myanmar

By: David Raja Marpaung S.Ip M.Def


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BACKGROUND◦ Burma has the largest number of armed ethnic insurgencies among ASEAN’s

countries◦ Independence on 4 January 1948◦ In 1988, unrest over economic mismanagement and political oppression by the

government led to widespread pro-democracy demonstrations throughout the country known as the 8888 Uprising.

◦ Security forces killed thousands of demonstrators, and General Saw Maung staged a coup d'état and formed the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). In 1989, SLORC declared martial law after widespread protests.

◦ May 1990, first free elections. The National League for Democracy (NLD), the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, won 392 out of a total 489 seats, but the election results were canceled by SLORC, which refused to step down.

◦ Led by Than Shwe since 1992, the military regime has made cease-fire agreements with most ethnic guerilla groups.

◦ In 1992, SLORC unveiled plans to create a new constitution through the National Convention, which began 9 January 1993.

◦ In 1997, the State Law and Order Restoration Council was renamed the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

◦ On 23 June 1997, Myanmar was admitted into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

INTRODUCTION


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What are the ASEAN’s roles in implementing the political stability in Myanmar?

What are the obstacles for the ASEAN to solve the problem in Myanmar?

Problems

MYANMAR

Political

Economical

Socio-CulturalTechnological

Environmental

Legal

PESTEL Analysis

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David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia,

also Indonesia Politic and Defense Consultant. Email:

[email protected] phone: +62 81219588360

Myanmar PESTEL Condition Politic & Legal Dimension

◦ Military junta (1962-now), with full of coercion and no democracy

◦ Anti-subversive and internal security constitution to destruct democratization process

◦ Detainment pro-democracy activists, civil societies, and opposition elements (monks)

◦ Criticized and pressed by Western countries

◦ Close relationship with India, China, and Russia (in 2007, the SC draft resolution about human rights violation was vetoed by Russia and China)

◦ Extremely corrupt state◦ 2008 constitution referendum

promised Democracy 2010 Election

Economy Dimension◦ Myanmar was the wealthiest

country in Southeast Asia (until 1960s)

◦ Under junta regime, average rate of annual GDP growth only 2,9%, GDP per capita USD 233 and inflation rate reach 30-60%

◦ Western countries banned investment and trading

◦ Foreign investment mostly from China, Singapore, South Korea, India, and Thailand

◦ Lack of infrastructures◦ World’s 2nd largest producer of

opium, and gaining national income through illegal drugs

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Myanmar PESTEL Condition… Social Dimension

◦ 55 million population (± 300,000 refugees)

◦ ± 135 ethnic groups, ± 108 languages

◦ 68% of population Bamar ethnic and Buddhist as the major religion

◦ Human Development Index 0,583

◦ Minority ethnic and religious persecution

◦ Human rights violation (UN report)

◦ The international humanitarian assistances restrictions.

◦ ± 146 higher education institutions

Technology Dimension◦ Low economy growth, low

technology◦ Weapons imported from Russia,

Ukraine, China and India◦ Technological investment from

India (oil and gas exploration, IT, hydropower, and construction of ports and buildings)

◦ Nuclear reactor research (Russia assistance)

Environmental Dimension◦ Cyclone Nargis disaster in May

2008 was used by the regime to performed referendum (as barter of the humanitarian aid) to support government’s constitution

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THE ACTORS

MARGINAL PARTIES

Myanmar governmentASEAN

Myanmar People

United NationsNational and International NGO

East Asia NeighbourhoodMedia

USA, EU,Non Politics and Human Right Institution

UNINVOLVED PARTIES


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Negative responses because the military junta and human rights violations issue.

The ASEAN way and non interference principal become a priority for Myanmar

ASEAN has been obliged for years of its regional and international implications regarding Myanmar’s Junta refusal of peaceful democratic transition and Junta’s human violations

The traditional respect for the principle of non-interference Myanmar’s problem through Summit Diplomacy and

consensus building is not enough realizing that Myanmar itself refused to discuss its problems with ASEAN

the collective actions are hard to be done since there’s still lack of common vision in the members itself

ASEAN should move beyond its traditional non-intervention policy lack of commitment from the members regarding concern on

human rights issue and democracy

ASEAN & Myanmar


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ASEAN as FORUM: role as an arena / forum to discuss the problem in Myanmar.

ASEAN as INSTRUMENT: Myanmar can use the ASEAN’s basic principle, non-interference principle, to avoid ASEAN’s participation

ASEAN & Myanmar


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ASEAN = interstate grouping basis on region (southeast asia) Constructivism the formation of collective identities shared

principles, values and traditions, and related to ASEAN case The ASEAN Way as the norms of ASEAN has become the core

values of ASEAN political behavior This non conferential strategy as mentioned before proved

that ASEAN is consistent with its shared principles, values and traditions, as the same with constructivist way

the subsequent debate over ASEAN’s collective identity is the principle of non interference

The constructive approach through the ASEAN way failed to produce political stability in Myanmar

ASEAN expectations to induce gradual political change in Burma through ‘peer group pressure’ did not materialize.

Regionalism in Southeast Asia


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Stakeholders Analysis

Oversight Actors• No

function of parliament

• No press freedom

• Civil society are in limited access and under-intimidated

Government• Corruptio

n• Authorita

rian• Power

supremacy

• Military as super power has dual function

Military• Using

violence

• Dual-function

• Running business

Civilian People• Frustrat

ed by law and politics

• Under coercion and injustice

• Race conflict

IMPACTS• No law

supremacy

• Social and security unrest

• Destructing economic development


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Transformation for the Stakeholders

Oversight Actors• Objective• Cover both

side• Pressure

to government

• Research & suggestion

• Law supremacy endorsement

Government• Law

enforcement

• Controlling military

• Security protection

• Give education and guidelines

• Eradicate corruption

• Increase military welfare

Military• No violent• Obeying

law• Profession

al• Hand over

the case to government

Civilian People• Obeying

law• No

anarchy• Using legal

and political channel

OUTCOME• Law

supremacy• Social and

political order

• Public trust

• SSR• Human

security• Supporting

economic development/sustainability


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Myanmar

Strong Government

Economy sustainability in MyanmarState revenues through Foreign

Direct Investment inMyanmar’s natural resources, such as mining, oil and gas, agriculture,

etc

Modern People of MyanmarRebuild Civil-Military RelationshipTo enhance greater Constructive

relationship among groups

Recommendation

Political stability and law

enforcement

Fair economy practicesLocal participation in economy activitiesEconomic growth

Open Access of Information (internet)

Civil Supremacy

ASEAN

Regional Stability

Dissatisfied by corrupt and close economy by military

regime Strong regional Economy

Promote regional Economy

Strong Civil Society Eliminating the social discrimination among

groups

Interest Analysis


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Myanmar

Territorial integritySovereignty and reject

any intervention by othercountries

PluralismApplying National

Law

Myanmar is part ASEANMyanmar as new power

in region

Recommendation

Rule of law

MulticulturalismStrengthening democracy

and good governanceRatified ASEAN Charta

Support Myanmar Transformation

Humanitarian affairs

ASEAN

To achieve harmony in region

Applying ASEAN Way

No DiscriminationEqual and fair societyASEAN Charta and

international human rights

Strong Rejection of Myanmar by region

and international power

Needs Analysis


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Benefits Management

Evaluation Measures* Military Approach

Politic and Legal

Socio- Cultural Economy

Build Democracy and good governance

Impact of Disbenefits

Redesign vision also concept of military position and function in government


Strengthening Regional and International Diplomacy role in Myanmar


Strengthening the social society


Legend Disbenefit

High High

Medium Medium

Low Low


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ASEAN just plays in normative role in Burma The Obstacles: non interference, ASEAN

Way Myanmar gets a lot of advantage by joining

ASEAN. On the other side, ASEAN gets a lot of problem with Myanmar to enhance the regional stability

Conclusion


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References

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bm.html

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/region/asro/mdtmanila/speeches/miworker.htm

http://www.republika.co.id/berita/63553/ASEAN_Tak_Ada_Sanksi_untuk_Myanmar

http://www.antara.co.id/view/?i=1235801759&c=ART&s=

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/331796/1/.html

http://www.asiaobserver.com/component/option,com_fireboard/Itemid,453/func,view/catid,2/id,10024/

http://www.antara.co.id/view/?i=1235801759&c=ART&s=

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/331796/1/.html

http://www.asiaobserver.com/component/option,com_fireboard/Itemid,453/func,view/catid,2/id,10024/

ASEAN Role in Myanmar

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