ASEAN Economic Community:

Financing Growth

Poltak HotraderoHead of Research and Development

Agenda

ASEAN General Overview

Financing ASEAN-5

2

ASEAN Overview

ASEAN Countries Real Economic GrowthAverage Growth 2004-2014

(Source: World Economic Outlook Database 2015 IMF)

4

ASEAN Countries in PopulationASEAN Population: 620 Million people (2014)

(Source: World Economic Outlook Database 2015 IMF)

5

ASEAN Countries in GDPASEAN GDP: $ 6762 Billion in PPP (2014)

(Source: World Economic Outlook Database 2015 IMF)

6

Bank Asset to GDP

31.9%

52.2%

80.2% 82.9% 88.3%95.4%

142.0%

160.0% 163.7%

271.8%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Myanmar Indonesia Laos Cambodia Philippines BruneiDarussalam

Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Singapore

Bank Asset to GDP

Mainstream Financing

(Source: Local Currency Bond and Infrastructure Finance in ASEAN+3, ADB, 2015)

Government Bond Outstanding to GDP

0.0% 0.0%

3.4%4.9%

16.9%

22.4%

43.1%

49.8%

57.5%

62.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Cambodia Laos BruneiDarussalam

Myanmar Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Singapore Thailand Malaysia

Gov. Debt Outstanding to GDP

Sovereign Financing

(Source: Local Currency Bond and Infrastructure Finance in ASEAN+3, ADB, 2015)

Financing ASEAN-5

48.41%

145.29%

55.85%

126.28%

182.45%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

Credit by Financial Sector

39.50%

141.77%

71.67%

131.36%

137.98%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

M2 to GDP

10

Credit to Private Sector and M2/GDPASEAN-5 Differences

(in percent of GDP) (in percent of GDP)

(Source: World Development Indicator, World Bank 2015)

$105

$193

$86

$153

$213 $18

$136

$17

$100

$70

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

Government Private

2.9%

3.8%

5.5%

8.0%

16.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Thailand

Singapore

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Year-on-Year Growth

11

ASEAN-5 Bond Market VolumeEnd of 2014 Position

(in USD Billions)

(Source: asianbondsonline.adb.org)

12

ASEAN-5 Equity MarketEnd of 2014 Position

(in USD Billions)

(Source: World Federation of Exchanges Statistics)

$422.12 $459.00

$261.84

$752.83

$430.42

23%

29.60%

17.10%

36.10%

75.00%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

Market Capitalization Trade Velocity

$1,282.41

$830.76

$175.84

$622.26

$392.43

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500

Thailand

Singapore

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Average Daily Trading Value

(in USD Millions)

Mutual Fund Assets in ComparisonEnd of 2010 Position, By Country

RegionPopulation(Millions)

GDP($ Billion)

Assets ($ Billion)

Asset per Capita ($)

Assets as share of GDP

(%)

China 1,355.2 5,708 347.6 256.5 6.1

Indonesia 232.8 707 18.7 80.3 2.6

South Korea 48.9 1,028 300.2 6,139.1 29.2

Malaysia 28.0 248 73.1 2,610.7 29.5

Philippines 93.8 200 5.7 60.8 2.9

Singapore 4.8 223 44.9 9,354.2 20.1

Thailand 68.2 319 87.7 1,285.9 27.5

United States 310.2 14,490 11,820.7 38,106.7 81.6

Japan 127.0 5,485 785.5 6,185.0 14.3

(Source: Asian Development Bank, 2013)

13

Blue Chip Stock Performance Among ASEAN-5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15

MSCI Indonesia USD 277.29

MSCI Thailand USD 201.32

MSCI Philippines USD 316.2

MSCI Singapore USD 119.22

MSCI Malaysia USD 175.64

MSCI Emerging Market USD 126.68

(Source: Thomson-Reuters, MSCI)

14

15

Global Equity Asset Allocation Among Emerging Market Countries

CountryMSCI Emerging

MarketMSCI AC Asia

ex Japan

China 17.7% 25.0%

Brazil 16.0%

Korea 13.5% 19.1%

Taiwan 11.5% 16.3%

South Africa 7.4%

India 7.4% 10.4%

Russia 7.3%

Mexico 4.5%

Malaysia 2.9% 4.1%

Indonesia 2.3% 3.3%

Thailand 1.7% 2.4%

Poland 1.7%

CountryMSCI Emerging

MarketMSCI AC Asia

ex Japan

Chile 1.5%

Turkey 1.3%

Colombia 0.8%

Peru 0.6%

Philippines 0.5% 0.7%

Hungary 0.4%

Egypt 0.4%

Czech Republic 0.4%

Morocco 0.2%

Hong Kong 11.8%

Singapore 6.9%

TOTAL 100% 100%

(Source: MSCI, 2014)

THANK YOUpoltak.hotradero@idx.co.id