Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October...

19
Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 1 September 30, 2016 Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research Model Portfolio Monthly Update: September 30, 2016 There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report. We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC: Relative Value Operating Momentum Analyst Revision Momentum Fundamental Quality Pages 2-7 contain brief commentary and highlights of a few stocks that seem particularly attractive. Page 8 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio. Page 9 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio. Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.

Transcript of Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October...

Page 1: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 1 September 30, 2016

Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research

Model Portfolio Monthly Update: September 30, 2016 There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report. We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC:

• Relative Value • Operating Momentum • Analyst Revision Momentum • Fundamental Quality

Pages 2-7 contain brief commentary and highlights of a few stocks that seem particularly attractive. Page 8 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio. Page 9 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio. Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.

Page 2: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 2 September 30, 2016

Notes: Readers that would like to follow our daily price target changes can follow us on our Seeking Alpha instablog or on Tumblr. This report is a follow-up to our October 2, 2106 abbreviated report outlining rebalancing actions for our theoretical model portfolio strategies.

Commentary After four consecutive months of high-quality stock returns outperforming low quality, we finally had a change in fortune in September 2016 as low quality outperformed high quality. The theoretical Core Long Model increased +0.47% in September 2016 versus a -0.04% decline in the S&P 500. Stocks in the theoretical Core Short Model increased on average +1.49% for the equivalent short sale loss of -1.49%. The Core Long/Short Model portfolio declined -1.03% (+0.47% -1.49% = -1.03%). The theoretical Opportunistic Long Model portfolio declined -2.56% for the month while the Opportunistic Short Model portfolio posted a short sale loss of -1.49%. The Opportunistic Long/Short Model declined by -3.25% (-1.76% -1.49% = -4.05%). Following a surge of volatility on September 9, 2016, the theoretical Opportunistic Long Model assumed a 100% cash position just prior to the close that day. Assuming no further volatility spikes, the Opportunistic Long Model will assume a 100% stock position through October 7, 2016, whereupon it will assume a 70% stock / 30% cash weighting through at least November 3, 2016. (Both the theoretical “Core” and “Opportunistic” portfolios use the same basket of stocks but the Opportunistic model moves to 70% and 100% cash allocations during periods of high volatility or when portfolio return targets are met.) The best model portfolio stocks for September 2016 The best performing stock in the long model was Netease.com Inc. (NTES) for a +15.18% MTD return through one day after hitting its price target on September 19. The worst performing stock in the long model was Federated Investors Inc. (FII) down -8.27%. In the short model, the best performing stock was Deutsche Bank AG (DB) down -19.19% for the equivalent theoretical short sale gain through one day after hitting its price target on September 26. The worst performing stock was Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (MPEL) with a gain of +18.72% for the equivalent theoretical short sale loss through one day after hitting its stop loss target on September 8.

Page 3: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 3 September 30, 2016

Performance of our favorite ideas Last month we had two favorite long ideas: Drew Industries Inc. (DW) and Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT). These stocks finished the month down -3.76% and up 1.04%, respectively. Looking ahead to October 2016 Long Rebalancing Actions As noted in our abbreviated report published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long-only models, 8 have been added, and 20 are rebalanced. The 28-stock theoretical model assumes an equal 3.57% weight for each stock. The long models are composed of high-quality stocks. Short Rebalancing Actions As of the September 30, 2016 close, 7 stocks have left the long-only models, 8 have been added, and 16 are rebalanced. This 23-stock theoretical model assumes an equal 4.35% weight for each stock. This short model is composed of low-quality stocks and only tends to work well during periods of sustained high uncertainty or volatility in the market.

Page 4: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 4 September 30, 2016

Our favorite long idea and favorite short idea for October 2016 Our favorite long idea is VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN) and our favorite short idea is Ctrip.com International (CTRP). Both stocks represent solid examples of clear trends in ROIC and consensus estimate revisions, all with corresponding fundamental qualities and relative value. We also think that a long/short trade in LOGI/NXPI could work well.

VeriSign, Inc.NasdaqGS:VRSN

Data as of 10/03/16 91 92 92 91 91 Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate

Period Date 6/30/15 9/30/15 12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/29/16 12/30/16 3/31/17 7/1/17 9/30/17

Period QTR -4 QTR -3 QTR-2 QTR-1 Last QTR +1Q +2Q +3Q +4Q +5Q

Income (excluding exceptions) 295 302 305 320 336 353 367 373 379 387 Average Total Equity (841) (921) (986) (1,030) (1,066) (1,071) (1,045) (989) (901) (786) Return on Equity -35.1% -32.8% -30.9% -31.0% -31.5% -32.9% -35.1% -37.8% -42.1% -49.3%

NOPLAT 536 560 297 569 594 617 634 648 657 666 Operating Capital 1,033 1,025 771 756 693 686 680 672 665 658 ROIC (NOPLAT / Operating Capital) 52.4% 55.9% 31.6% 61.5% 69.4% 78.5% 88.4% 92.8% 96.7% 99.1%

Ascendere Associates LLC

Page 5: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 5 September 30, 2016

Ctrip.com International Ltd.NasdaqGS:CTRP

Data as of 10/03/16 91 92 92 91 91 Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate EstimatePeriod Date 6/30/15 9/30/15 12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/29/16 12/30/16 3/31/17 7/1/17 9/30/17Period QTR -4 QTR -3 QTR-2 QTR-1 Last QTR +1Q +2Q +3Q +4Q +5Q

Income (excluding exceptions) 148 281 467 (371) (940) (1,195) (1,209) (220) 326 423 Average Total Equity 10,272 11,046 21,790 31,747 41,566 51,406 61,184 60,991 61,711 62,744 Return on Equity 1.4% 2.5% 2.1% -1.2% -2.3% -2.3% -2.0% -0.4% 0.5% 0.7%

NOPLAT 2,049 4,587 5,405 5,264 5,197 4,243 3,473 3,162 2,096 2,045 Operating Capital 27,555 32,067 87,110 91,034 97,170 97,081 97,001 96,877 96,747 96,709 ROIC (NOPLAT / Operating Capital) 10.1% 19.1% 14.3% 10.1% 7.8% 5.2% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 2.1%

Ascendere Associates LLC

Page 6: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 6 September 30, 2016

Long running advice regarding the use of our model portfolio report Wayne Gretzky said it best – “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Quantitative screens like the one in this report show where a stock has been and assume the trajectory is fixed. Of course, this is not always the case. The best investors will use this model portfolio as guidance, and not the end all. At the same time, the model does well enough on its own, often beating the indices with ease (though not this past month). With a little effort, we hope that active fundamental portfolio managers will do even better. A key example this month may be JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU), which made our long model portfolio again this month. Our models indicate that ROIC for JBLU has peaked in the most recent quarter. In order to justify establishing a longer-term investment in JBLU right now, one must assume that consensus will continue to drastically raise their estimates in the coming months. Whichever one’s thoughts on JBLU, it is clearly at an inflection point. Our bias for JBLU is to the long side. Consensus is notoriously poor at calling inflection points, and it is rare that a trend abruptly changes.

Page 7: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 7 September 30, 2016

JetBlue Airways CorporationNasdaqGS:JBLU

Data as of 10/03/16 91 92 92 91 91 Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate

Period Date 6/30/15 9/30/15 12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/29/16 12/30/16 3/31/17 7/1/17 9/30/17

Period QTR -4 QTR -3 QTR-2 QTR-1 Last QTR +1Q +2Q +3Q +4Q +5Q

Income (excluding exceptions) 455 574 673 741 763 753 727 670 645 640 Average Total Equity 2,546 2,687 2,852 3,029 3,216 3,427 3,629 3,825 4,014 4,198 Return on Equity 17.9% 21.4% 23.6% 24.5% 23.7% 22.0% 20.0% 17.5% 16.1% 15.2%

NOPLAT 927 1,109 1,234 1,320 1,355 1,348 1,321 1,235 1,202 1,190 Operating Capital 7,598 7,705 7,734 8,110 8,194 8,534 8,819 9,071 9,264 9,442 ROIC (NOPLAT / Operating Capital) 12.5% 14.7% 16.2% 17.0% 17.2% 16.7% 16.0% 14.5% 13.7% 13.2%

Ascendere Associates LLC

Page 8: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 8 September 30, 2016

Long Model Portfolio -- Rebalancing Actions

9/30/2016 Rebalancing

Core and Opportunistic Long Portfolio:28 stocks in the model portfolio = 3.57% weight per position

Close Position Hold/Rebalance Open PositionDrew Industries Incorporated DW American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. AEO Marriott International, Inc. MARAmgen Inc. AMGN Vipshop Holdings Limited VIPS Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) HOMBAlphabet Inc. GOOG Papa John's International Inc. PZZA JetBlue Airways Corporation JBLULexington Realty Trust LXP Lowe's Companies, Inc. LOW Masco Corporation MAS

Gentex Corp. GNTX Cintas Corporation CTASULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Frag ULTA VeriSign, Inc. VRSNSysco Corporation SYY InterDigital, Inc. IDCCApollo Global Management, LLCAPO Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. ELSFederated Investors, Inc. FIIPrincipal Financial Group Inc. PFGFirst Horizon National CorporatiFHNHawaiian Holdings Inc. HADycom Industries Inc. DYEMCOR Group Inc. EMENetEase, Inc. NTESTexas Instruments Inc. TXNLogitech International SA LOGICitrix Systems, Inc. CTXSLam Research Corporation LRCXApplied Materials, Inc. AMAT Source: Ascendere Associates LLC

Page 9: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 9 September 30, 2016

Short Model Portfolio -- Rebalancing Actions When the market anticipates an improving economy from low price levels, low-quality stocks will at times out-perform high-quality stocks as the expected improvements in fundamentals are discounted from a relatively more depressed price level.

9/30/2016 Rebalancing

Core and Opportunistic Short Portfolio:23 stocks in the model portfolio = 4.35% weight per position

Close Position Hold/Rebalance Open Short SaleUnder Armour, Inc. UA Tribune Media Company TRCO Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. SBGIDeutsche Bank AG DB Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN MPLX LP MPLXJacobs Engineering Group Inc. JEC Melco Crown Entertainment LimMPEL ConocoPhillips COPColfax Corporation CFX Netflix, Inc. NFLX InterOil Corporation IOCCaterpillar Inc. CAT Ctrip.com International Ltd. CTRP Terex Corporation TEXWorkday, Inc. WDAY Tesla Motors, Inc. TSLA Joy Global, Inc. JOYPTC Inc. PTC Archer-Daniels-Midland Compa ADM NXP Semiconductors NV NXPI

Superior Energy Services, Inc. SPN Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCXThe Blackstone Group L.P. BXCredit Suisse Group AG CSUltragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc RARETesaro, Inc. TSROACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACADTableau Software, Inc. DATAFMC Corp. FMCTableau Software, Inc. DATA Source: Ascendere Associates LLC

Page 10: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 10 September 30, 2016

Return Data

Core & Opportunistic Long Model MTD Theoretical Lo 8/31/2016 to 9/30/2016

Target/ Date+1 Sector Company Ticker 8/31/2016 9/30/2016 Performance Stop Date Sell Price ReturnInformation Technology Netease.com Inc. NTES 211.97 240.78 13.59% 9/19/2016 244.14$ 15.18%Information Technology Logitech International SA LOGI 21.06 22.46 6.65%Consumer Discretionary Papa John's International Inc. PZZA 74.83 78.85 5.37% 9/23/2016 81.63$ 9.09%Financials Principal Financial Group Inc. PFG 49.07 51.51 4.97%Industrials EMCOR Group Inc. EME 57.26 59.62 4.12%Consumer Discretionary Vipshop Holdings Limited VIPS 14.16 14.67 3.60%Industrials Hawaiian Holdings Inc. HA 46.98 48.60 3.45%Information Technology LAM Research Corp. LRCX 93.32 94.71 1.49%Information Technology Applied Materials Inc. AMAT 29.84 30.15 1.04%Information Technology Texas Instruments Inc. TXN 69.54 70.18 0.92%Industrials Dycom Industries Inc. DY 81.12 81.78 0.81%Financials First Horizon National Corp. FHN 15.38 15.23 -0.98%Consumer Discretionary Gentex Corp. GNTX 17.79 17.56 -1.29%Health Care Amgen Inc. AMGN 170.06 166.81 -1.91%Information Technology Citrix Systems, Inc. CTXS 87.20 85.22 -2.27%Financials Apollo Global Management, LLC APO 18.62 17.96 -3.54%Consumer Discretionary American Eagle Outfitters Inc. AEO 18.54 17.86 -3.67%Consumer Discretionary Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, InULTA 247.21 237.98 -3.73%Consumer Discretionary Drew Industries Inc. DW 101.85 98.02 -3.76%Consumer Staples Sysco Corp. SYY 51.86 49.01 -5.50%Consumer Discretionary Lowe's Companies Inc. LOW 76.56 72.21 -5.68%Financials Federated Investors Inc. FII 32.30 29.63 -8.27%

Ascendere Associates LLC

Page 11: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 11 September 30, 2016

Core & Opportunistic Short Model MTD shorts hit target 8/4/2011 for 14.84% gain8/31/2016 to 9/30/2016

Target/ Date+1 Sector Company Ticker 8/31/2016 9/30/2016 Performance Stop Date Sell Price ReturnFinancials Deutsche Bank AG DB 14.75 13.09 -11.25% 9/26/2016 11.92$ -19.19%Financials The Blackstone Group BX 27.42 25.53 -6.89% 9/27/2016 25.12$ -8.39%Information Technology Tableau Software, Inc. DATA 58.03 55.27 -4.76%Consumer Discretionary Tribune Media Company TRCO 38.08 36.52 -4.10% 9/21/2016 35.61$ -6.49%Consumer Discretionary Tesla Motors, Inc. TSLA 212.01 204.03 -3.76%Consumer Staples Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. ADM 43.76 42.17 -3.63%Consumer Discretionary Under Armour, Inc. UA 39.63 38.68 -2.40%Industrials Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. JEC 52.69 51.72 -1.84%Consumer Discretionary Ctrip.com International Ltd. CTRP 47.35 46.57 -1.65% 9/13/2016 42.83$ -9.55%Health Care Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACAD 32.13 31.81 -1.00%Financials Credit Suisse Group CS 13.04 13.14 0.77%Consumer Discretionary Netflix, Inc. NFLX 97.45 98.55 1.13%Materials FMC Corp. FMC 46.94 48.34 2.98%Information Technology PTC Inc. PTC 42.67 44.31 3.84%Industrials Colfax Corporation CFX 29.68 31.43 5.90%Energy Superior Energy Services Inc. SPN 16.83 17.90 6.36% 9/27/2016 15.67$ -6.89%Healthcare Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. RARE 65.92 70.94 7.62% 9/16/2016 76.58$ 16.17%Information Technology Workday, Inc. WDAY 84.79 91.69 8.14% 9/30/2016 90.51$ 6.75%Industrials Caterpillar Inc. CAT 81.95 88.77 8.32% 9/29/2016 88.77$ 8.32%Consumer Discretionary Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN 89.32 97.42 9.07% 9/12/2016 103.71$ 16.11%Healthcare Tesaro, Inc. TSRO 84.69 100.24 18.36% 9/29/2016 100.24$ 18.36%Consumer Discretionary Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. MPEL 12.98 16.11 24.11% 9/8/2016 15.41$ 18.72%

Ascendere Associates LLC

Page 12: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 12 September 30, 2016

* Return figures are calculated using cumulative simple returns. This table represents returns of several theoretical portfolios that do not assume any costs. This table is not to be construed as advertising for any investment service. Real portfolios that attempt to exactly replicate these theoretical strategies will generate lower returns relative to these models due to slippage, transaction costs, tax expenses and other costs. There are limitations inherent in our theoretical results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. We do our best to provide accurate information, but do not guarantee this. Please see additional disclosures and disclaimers.

Theoretical Model Portfolio* 09/30/16 MTD YTDSince

03/31/09 SharpeSimple Returns (No Compounding)

Stock Targets Core ModelLong -0.44% 0.47% 9.32% 169.4% 0.99 Short 0.12% 1.49% -4.40% 59.9% 0.39 Core Long/Short -0.56% -1.03% 13.72% 109.5% 0.92

Stock Targets and Opportunistic ModelPortfolio Targets Long -0.44% -2.56% -3.67% 143.6% 1.08

Short 0.00% 1.49% -13.97% -11.5% (0.09) Opportunistic Long/Short -0.44% -4.05% 10.30% 155.1% 1.34

Stock Targets and Opportunistic Model IIIPortfolio Targets Long Stocks -0.44% -2.56% -3.67% 143.6% 1.08

Long Inverse ETF ^SH 0.00% -0.11% -2.67% -75.6% (0.73) Opportunistic Long/Short III -0.44% -2.67% -6.34% 67.9% 0.69

S&P 500 Index -0.60% -0.04% 6.67% 109.90% 0.90

Page 13: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 13 September 30, 2016

Page 14: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 14 September 30, 2016

Page 15: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 15 September 30, 2016

Page 16: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 16 September 30, 2016

Page 17: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 17 September 30, 2016

Core Opportunistic"Dollar

Neutral" 1"Dollar

Neutral" 2

Inception March 31, 2009Long , Stock

Targets

Long, Stock and Portfolio Targets

Long/Short, Stock Targets and Portfolio

Targets

Long, Stock and Portfolio

Targets / Long ^SH ETF S&P 500

9/30/2016 Theoretical Theoretical Theoretical TheoreticalSimple ReturnsToday 0.61% 0.00% -0.74% -0.79% 0.80%MTD 0.47% -2.56% -4.05% -2.67% -0.04%YTD 9.32% -3.67% 10.30% -6.34% 6.67%Cumulative from 3/31/2009 169.41% 143.56% 155.08% 67.91% 109.90%

Absolute RiskDaily Average 0.09% 0.08% 0.08% 0.04% 0.06%Daily Range 16.86% 15.84% 11.84% 12.00% 11.40%Daily Standard Deviation 1.43% 1.11% 0.96% 0.81% 1.02%Daily Return/Standard Deviation 6.26% 6.86% 8.50% 4.42% 5.68%

Average 90-Day T-bill 1.22% 1.22% 1.22% 1.22% 1.22% Annualized Daily Returns 22.59% 19.14% 20.68% 9.06% 14.65% Annualized Standard Deviation 22.7% 17.6% 15.3% 12.9% 16.2%Sharpe Ratio 0.94 1.02 1.27 0.61 0.83

Percentage Down Days 45.2% 34.9% 42.9% 44.8% 45.1%Average Daily Downside Value -1.02% -0.90% -0.66% -0.54% -0.74%Daily Downside Deviation -1.08% -0.91% -0.63% -0.57% -0.78%Daily VAR of 1000 at 95% Conf -23 -17 -15 -13 -16

Benchmark Relative RiskCorrelation 0.91 0.70 (0.05) 0.04R-Squared 0.82 0.49 0.00 0.00Daily Tracking Error 0.67% 0.83% 1.44% 1.28%

RegressionBeta 1.27 0.76 -0.05 0.04Daily Alpha 0.031% 0.018% 0.024% -0.022%Jensen's Daily Alpha 0.040% 0.013% -0.001% -0.001%

Trading Days 1890 1890 1890 1890*Returns calculated by the simple return method (not compounded).

* Portfolio models are theoretical and assume no costs.

* Data collected in real time since 3/31/2009

Source: Ascendere Associates LLC

Page 18: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 18 September 30, 2016

DISCLOSURES Ascendere is in the business of providing equity research and related consulting services to investors and their advisors. The equity research it provides includes basic quantitative model portfolios and more detailed fundamental research with respect to individual stocks. In addition, the firm manages stock portfolios for itself and clients. Ascendere does not rate stocks on any scale, but does offer individual stock commentary and valuation opinions. With regard to Ascendere's portfolio strategies, "long" or "high-quality" baskets should generally be considered buys, unless otherwise noted. Stocks in our "short" or "low-quality" baskets should generally be considered sells, unless otherwise noted. While exceptions may occasionally occur, typically stocks in the high-quality basket are expected to outperform the S&P 500 over a month's time and stocks in the low-quality basket are expected to underperform. A more relevant benchmark would comprise of all stocks and ADRs that trade on major U.S. stock exchanges with a market cap above $2 billion. Ascendere adheres to professional standards and abides by codes of ethics that put the interests of clients ahead of its own. The following are specific disclosures made by Ascendere: 1) Ascendere may have a financial interest in the companies referred to in this report ("the Companies"). The research analyst covering the Companies and members of the analyst's immediate family have a financial interest in one or more of the Companies. 2) Ascendere generates revenue from research subscription revenue and portfolio management fees. At any given time it may be long or short any of the Companies. 3) Ascendere does not make a market in the securities of any of the Companies. 4) Ascendere has not received compensation from the Companies. 5) Ascendere has not managed or co-managed a public offering for any of the Companies. 6) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of any of the Companies. 7) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst beneficially own 1% or more of any class of securities of any of the Companies. DISCLAIMERS This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, or an offer, to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The report is not intended to be in furtherance of the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual recipient. Investment decisions should be based on an individual's own goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. The information contained herein accurately reflects the opinion of Ascendere at the time the report was released. The opinions of Ascendere are subject to change at any time without notice and without obligation or notification. The officers, affiliates or family members of Ascendere Associates may hold positions in the securities of the Companies. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. The views and opinions expressed in the market commentary reflect the opinions of the author and may be based upon information obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. These opinions are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions. Ascendere disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information is intended for the sole use of clients of Ascendere. Any other use, distribution or reproduction is strictly prohibited. Investing in stocks includes a high degree of risk, including the risk of total loss. This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. All information, opinions and estimates are current as of original distribution by author and are subject to change at any time without notice. Any companies, securities and/or markets referenced are solely for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. For Investment Professional use only. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION. Any dissemination or copying of this commentary is strictly prohibited.

Page 19: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity …...Oct 03, 2016  · published on October 2, 2016, as of the September 30, 2016 close, 4 stocks have left the long -only models,

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 19 September 30, 2016

J. Stephen Castellano – founded Ascendere Associates LLC in 2009 to provide innovative equity research and financial modeling consulting services. Among the services that Ascendere provides are: 1) detailed custom equity research analysis; 2) valuation scenario analysis studies; 3) supply /demand studies; 4) long and short stock idea generation; 5) portfolio feedback; 6) detailed fundamental financial modeling services; and 7) additional analytical consulting services. Additional information is available at jstephencastellano.tumblr.com.

Mr. Castellano has over 20 years of experience in equity research and related consulting positions. At PaineWebber, Warburg Dillon Read, and Credit Lyonnais Securities he developed fundamental equity valuation models and conducted in-depth research on the steel and telecom services industries. At Boston Private Value Investors, he built sophisticated screens for stock idea generation and also provided general fundamental equity research coverage. He received a MBA from the F. W. Olin School of Business at Babson College (2005) and a BA from Oberlin College (1993). He is a CFA Level 3 candidate, and is on the Board of Advisors of GovBrain, a political intelligence and government analytics company serving the hedge fund industry. Mr. Castellano’s sell side equity research experience includes consulting with investment banking teams on planned equity, debt, and M&A deals. Consulting projects have included the development of xml-based financial models as well as marketing strategies for a financial data provider, equity research reports for a family office equity portfolio, supply/demand models for a telecom consulting firm, cash burn rate scenarios for a key stakeholder in an iconic food manufacturing company, a budget forecast model for a 250,000 bpd oil refining company, a budget forecast and valuation for a risk management software startup, and due diligence of a potential acquisition of a fast-growing fashion apparel boutique, among others. Mr. Castellano's career history is highlighted below:

• Ascendere Associates, LLC (2009-Present) • Boston Private Value Investors , Equity Research, Equity Research Analyst (2005-2009) • Pyramid Research, Contract Consultant, Telecom Services (2002-2003) • Credit Lyonnais Securities (USA), Equity Research, Telecom Services, Vice President (2000-2001) • Warburg Dillon Read, Equity Research, Telecom Services, Research Associate (1999-2000) • PaineWebber, Equity Research, Steel and Nonferrous Metals, Research Associate, Editor (1995-1999)