Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 30.11.2015 · As with all of our...

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 1 November 30, 2015 Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research Model Portfolio Monthly Update: November 30, 2015 There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report. We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC: Relative Value Operating Momentum Analyst Revision Momentum Fundamental Quality Pages 2-4 contain brief commentary and highlights of a few stocks that seem particularly attractive. Page 6 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio. Page 7 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio. Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.

Transcript of Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 30.11.2015 · As with all of our...

Page 1: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 30.11.2015 · As with all of our favorite stock ideas Huntington’s ROIC has shown a dramatic improvement over

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 1 November 30, 2015

Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research

Model Portfolio Monthly Update: November 30, 2015 There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report. We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC:

• Relative Value • Operating Momentum • Analyst Revision Momentum • Fundamental Quality

Pages 2-4 contain brief commentary and highlights of a few stocks that seem particularly attractive. Page 6 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio. Page 7 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio. Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.

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Notes: Readers that would like to follow our daily price target changes can follow us on our Seeking Alpha instablog or on Tumblr. To see how we manage real-time derivations of this model visit us on InvestFeed, StockViews, and on Marketocracy (non-tax and tax-efficient).

Commentary November 2015 was an unexciting yet beneficial month for our model portfolio strategies. Both our theoretical Core Long Model and Opportunistic Long Model gained 1.28% for the month compared to a 0.11% increase in the S&P 500. (While both long models track the same stocks, during periods of high volatility the Opportunistic model will move into a 100% cash allocation.) For the year to date, the Core Long Model is up 11.67% and the Opportunistic Long Model is up 14.63%. Our Core Dollar Neutral Model portfolio increased by 0.94%, with the long model increase of +1.28% offset by a -0.34% return in the short model portfolio. For the year to date, theoretical returns for this model are up 12.58% The best performing stock in the long models was NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), up +11.81%. The worst performing stock was Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), down -8.62%. The best performing stock in the short model Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL), down -13.24% for a +13.24% short sale gain. The worst performing stock in the short model was Autodesk (ADSK), up +15.75% for a -15.75% short sale loss. ADSK was assumed sold one day after being stopped out on November 5. Looking ahead 9 stocks are leaving the long-only model, 12 are being added, and 16 are being rebalanced as of the November 30, 2015 close. Several stocks look particularly appealing A few stocks catch our eye this month. NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) continues to look very strong. Two new ideas in the financial sector also stand out -- Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL) and Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF). In technology, NetEase, Inc. (NTES) looks great. Of all of these, the most compelling on a preliminary basis is Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII). As with all of our favorite stock ideas Huntington’s ROIC has shown a dramatic improvement over the last year, moving from 8.8% in September 2014 to 13.0% in the latest period. Consensus estimates imply that ROIC may have peaked, but we would give HII the benefit of the doubt for the time being. In our experience, consensus is notoriously poor at capturing key inflection points and we think there is

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a chance the company will continue to post improving ROIC and “surprising” Wall Street in the process. We would like to dig deeper into this company to better understand what is driving ROIC improvements and the basis for current consensus estimates, which seem low at an initial glance.

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.NYSE:HII

>-----------------Estimated-----------------<9/30/2016 6/29/2016 3/30/2016 12/31/2015 9/30/2015 6/30/2015 3/31/2015 12/31/2014 9/30/2014

Economic Profit Model LTM+4Q LTM+3Q LTM +2Q LTM +1Q Last LTM LTM-1 LTM-2 LTM -3 LTM -4

NYSE:HII LTM+4Q LTM+3Q LTM +2Q LTM +1Q Last LTM LTM-1 LTM-2 LTM -3 LTM -4NOPLAT 520 548 672 678 671 565 509 727 469 Economic Charge 368 379 385 377 363 352 390 363 365 Economic Profit 152 170 287 302 308 213 119 364 104 Y/Y change -10.6% -40.9% -4.8% -2.2% 44.6% 79.1% -67.3% 249.1% 0.3%

NOPLAT 520 548 672 678 671 565 509 727 469 Operating Capita l 4,845 4,982 5,065 4,956 4,771 5,185 5,236 5,122 5,497 ROIC (NOPLAT / Operating Capital) 10.7% 11.0% 13.3% 13.7% 14.1% 10.9% 9.7% 14.2% 8.5%

NOPLAT 520 548 672 678 671 565 509 727 469 5 Qtr Average Operating Capita l 4,962 4,944 4,994 5,037 5,162 5,326 5,385 5,368 5,357 ROIC (NOPLAT / Operating Capital) 10.5% 11.1% 13.5% 13.5% 13.0% 10.6% 9.5% 13.5% 8.8%

Source: Ascendere Associates assumptions, estimates and data, XBRLAnalyst data and consensus estimates, and S&P Capital IQ data and consensus estimates.

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. IndustrialsNYSE:HII Aerospace and Defense

Ascendere Ranking Price 11/30/15 130.92 Cash (671) EV/LTM EBITDA 6.2 Shares 47 Debt 1,305 Price/Book 4.1 Market Cap 6,150 Other -

5 = Best Rank Enterprise Value 6,784 Relative Value 5Operating Momentum 5 CY1 Consensus EPS Est. 9.38$ CY1 PE 14.0 Total Capital 2,795$ Analyst Revisions Mom 4 CY2 Consensus EPS Est. 9.35$ CY2 PE 14.0 Debt/Capital 23%Fundamental Quality 5 Latest Annualized Dividend 2.00$ Div Yield 1.2% Debt/Enterprise Value 19%

Source: Capital IQ data and estimates, and Ascendere Associates LLC data and estimates.

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Our favorite short idea is Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) In the abbreviated ROIC model below we see that ROIC for CAR peaked last December 2014 and is forecast to decline for another year. Coupled with poor relative value and negative estimate revisions, we do not see a recovery for CAR anytime soon. The profile just described shares similar traits to previously successful short sale ideas, such as JC Penney (JCP).

Avis Budget Group, Inc.NasdaqGS:CAR

>-----------------Estimated-----------------<9/30/2016 6/29/2016 3/30/2016 12/31/2015 9/30/2015 6/30/2015 3/31/2015 12/31/2014 9/30/2014

Economic Profit Model LTM+4Q LTM+3Q LTM +2Q LTM +1Q Last LTM LTM-1 LTM-2 LTM -3 LTM -4

NasdaqGS:CAR LTM+4Q LTM+3Q LTM +2Q LTM +1Q Last LTM LTM-1 LTM-2 LTM -3 LTM -4NOPLAT 677 737 802 843 821 875 876 1,233 698 Economic Charge 292 284 260 226 225 131 313 414 350 Economic Profit 385 453 542 616 596 744 564 818 348 Y/Y change -15.1% -16.4% -12.1% 3.4% -19.9% 32.0% -31.1% 135.2% -27.7%

NOPLAT 677 737 802 843 821 875 876 1,233 698 Operating Capita l 7,660 7,457 6,824 5,938 5,910 6,284 5,820 5,777 5,637 ROIC (NOPLAT / Operating Capital) 8.8% 9.9% 11.8% 14.2% 13.9% 13.9% 15.1% 21.3% 12.4%

NOPLAT 677 737 802 843 821 875 876 1,233 698 5 Qtr Average Operating Capita l 6,970 6,532 6,239 5,988 5,885 5,924 5,872 5,894 5,924 ROIC (NOPLAT / Operating Capital) 9.7% 11.3% 12.9% 14.1% 14.0% 14.8% 14.9% 20.9% 11.8%

Source: Ascendere Associates assumptions, estimates and data, XBRLAnalyst data and consensus estimates, and S&P Capital IQ data and consensus estimates.

Avis Budget Group, Inc. IndustrialsNasdaqGS:CAR Trucking

Ascendere Ranking Price 11/30/15 37.39 Cash (585) EV/LTM EBITDA 14.6 Shares 100 Debt 13,539 Price/Book 6.3 Market Cap 3,750 Other 0

5 = Best Rank Enterprise Value 16,704 Relative Value 1Operating Momentum 2 CY1 Consensus EPS Est. 3.17$ CY1 PE 11.8 Total Capital 14,139$ Analyst Revisions Mom 1 CY2 Consensus EPS Est. 3.60$ CY2 PE 10.4 Debt/Capital 92%Fundamental Quality 2 Latest Annualized Dividend -$ Div Yield 0.0% Debt/Enterprise Value 81%

Source: Capital IQ data and estimates, and Ascendere Associates LLC data and estimates.

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 5 November 30, 2015

Long running advice regarding the use of our model portfolio report Wayne Gretzky said it best – “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Quantitative screens like the one in this report show where a stock has been and assume the trajectory is fixed. Of course, this is not always the case. The best investors will use this model portfolio as guidance, and not the end all. At the same time, the model does well enough on its own, often beating the indices with ease (though not this past month). With a little effort, we hope that active fundamental portfolio managers will do even better. A few stocks that are not part of our model portfolio but still looking strong are such stocks as NuVasive, Inc. (NUVA) ResMed Inc. (RMD), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU). There are always exceptions.

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Long Model Portfolio -- Rebalancing Actions

11/30/2015 Rebalancing

Core and Opportunistic Long Portfolio:28 stocks in the model portfolio = 3.57% weight per position

Close Position Hold/Rebalance Open PositionOmnicom Group Inc. OMC The Interpublic Group of Compa IPG Tractor Supply Company TSCOCardinal Health, Inc. CAH PrivateBancorp, Inc. PVTB Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. SFMSpirit AeroSystems Holdings, IncSPR United Therapeutics Corporatio UTHR Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLLDelta Air Lines, Inc. DAL Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD First Citizens Bancshares Inc. FCNC.APaychex, Inc. PAYX Centene Corp. CNC Cincinnati Financial Corp. CINFFactSet Research Systems Inc. FDS Amgen Inc. AMGN Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. HIITech Data Corp. TECD Canadian National Railway ComCNI General Dynamics Corporation GDVisa Inc. V Texas Instruments Inc. TXN Deluxe Corp. DLXEuronet Worldwide, Inc. EEFT Linear Technology Corporation LLTC Dycom Industries Inc. DY

VeriSign, Inc. VRSN Northrop Grumman Corporation NOCApple Inc. AAPL Fiserv, Inc. FISVLeidos Holdings, Inc. LDOS NetEase, Inc. NTESManhattan Associates, Inc. MANHJuniper Networks, Inc. JNPRCDW Corporation CDWNVIDIA Corporation NVDA Source: Ascendere Associates LLC

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Short Model Portfolio -- Rebalancing Actions When the market anticipates an improving economy from low price levels, low-quality stocks will at times out-perform high-quality stocks as the expected improvements in fundamentals are discounted from a relatively more depressed price level.

11/30/2015 Rebalancing

Core and Opportunistic Short Portfolio:23 stocks in the model portfolio = 4.35% weight per position

Close Position Hold/Rebalance Open Short SalePetroChina Co. Ltd. PTR Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN TripAdvisor Inc. TRIPTenaris S.A. TS Melco Crown Entertainment LimMPEL Apache Corp. APACimarex Energy Co. XEC Netflix, Inc. NFLX Hess Corporation HESEni SpA E Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM Continental Resources, Inc. CLRTOTAL S.A. TOT Baker Hughes Incorporated BHI EnLink Midstream, LLC ENLCGolar LNG Ltd. GLNG Weatherford International plc WFT RPC Inc. RESWhiting Petroleum Corp. WLL ConocoPhillips COP Deutsche Bank AG DBDeere & Company DE Chevron Corporation CVX Woodward, Inc. WWDPTC Inc. PTC Royal Dutch Shell plc RDS.B Avis Budget Group, Inc. CARCree, Inc. CREE Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P.SXL KBR, Inc. KBRNCR Corporation NCR BP p.l.c. BP Platform Specialty Products CorporatioPAHAutodesk, Inc. ADSK Albemarle Corporation ALBYahoo! Inc. YHOO

Source: Ascendere Associates LLC

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Return Data

Core & Opportunistic Long Model MTD Theoretical Lo 10/30/2015 to 11/30/2015

Target/ Date+1 Sector Company Ticker 10/30/2015 11/30/2015 Performance Stop Date Sell Price ReturnInformation Technology NVIDIA Corporation NVDA 28.37 31.72 11.81%Information Technology VeriSign Inc. VRSN 80.60 89.44 10.97%Information Technology Leidos Holdings, Inc. LDOS 52.57 57.93 10.20%Health Care Cardinal Health, Inc. CAH 82.20 86.85 5.66%Financials Privatebancorp Inc. PVTB 41.83 44.11 5.45%Information Technology Paychex Inc. PAYX 51.58 54.25 5.18%Information Technology Manhattan Associates, Inc. MANH 72.85 76.60 5.15%Health Care United Therapeutics Corp. UTHR 146.63 152.63 4.09%Information Technology Linear Technology Corp. LLTC 44.42 45.72 2.93%Information Technology Texas Instruments Inc. TXN 56.72 58.12 2.47%Health Care Amgen Inc. AMGN 158.18 161.10 1.85%Information Technology Visa Inc. V 77.58 79.01 1.84%Consumer Discretionary Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. IPG 22.93 23.00 0.31%Industrials Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc SPR 52.74 52.45 -0.55%Information Technology Apple Inc. AAPL 119.50 118.30 -1.00%Consumer Discretionary Omnicom Group Inc. OMC 74.92 73.92 -1.33%Health Care Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD 108.13 105.96 -2.01%Industrials Canadian National Railway Company CNI 61.09 59.75 -2.19%Health Care Centene Corp. CNC 59.48 57.75 -2.91%Information Technology Euronet Worldwide Inc. EEFT 80.24 77.72 -3.14%Information Technology FactSet Research Systems Inc. FDS 175.12 169.53 -3.19%Information Technology CDW Corporation CDW 44.69 43.17 -3.40%Information Technology Juniper Networks, Inc. JNPR 31.39 30.13 -4.01%Information Technology Tech Data Corp. TECD 72.79 67.65 -7.06%Industrials Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL 50.84 46.46 -8.62%

Ascendere Associates LLC

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 9 November 30, 2015

Core & Opportunistic Short Model MTDal shorts hit target 8/4/2011 for 14.84% gain10/30/2015 to 11/30/2015

Target/ Date+1 Sector Company Ticker 10/30/2015 11/30/2015 Performance Stop Date Sell Price ReturnConsumer Discretionary Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. MPEL 18.73 16.25 -13.24%Consumer Discretionary Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN 69.95 62.77 -10.26%Energy PetroChina Co. Ltd. PTR 78.63 71.21 -9.44%Energy Golar LNG Ltd. GLNG 29.01 27.35 -5.72%Energy Royal Dutch Shell plc RDS.B 52.69 49.94 -5.22%Information Technology Yahoo! Inc. YHOO 35.62 33.81 -5.08%Energy Whiting Petroleum Corp. WLL 17.23 16.51 -4.18%Energy Sunoco Logistics Partners LP SXL 29.04 27.87 -4.03%Energy BP plc BP 35.70 34.60 -3.08%Energy Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM 82.74 81.66 -1.31%Energy Eni SpA E 32.60 32.29 -0.95%Energy Chevron Corp. CVX 90.88 91.32 0.48%Energy Cimarex Energy Co. XEC 118.06 119.02 0.81%Energy ConocoPhillips COP 53.35 54.05 1.31%Information Technology PTC Inc. PTC 35.44 36.04 1.69%Information Technology NCR Corp. NCR 26.60 27.11 1.92%Industrials Deere & Co. DE 78.00 79.57 2.01%Energy Total SA TOT 48.23 49.45 2.53%Energy Baker Hughes Inc. BHI 52.68 54.07 2.64%Energy Tenaris SA TS 25.27 26.12 3.36%Energy Weatherford International Ltd. WFT 10.24 10.81 5.57%Information Technology Cree Inc. CREE 25.19 27.64 9.73%Consumer Discretionary Netflix, Inc. NFLX 108.38 123.33 13.79% 11/27/2015 123.33$ 13.79%Information Technology Autodesk, Inc. ADSK 55.19 63.47 15.00% 11/5/2015 63.88$ 15.75%

Ascendere Associates LLC

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* Return figures are calculated using cumulative simple returns. This table represents returns of several theoretical portfolios that do not assume any costs. This table is not to be construed as advertising for any investment service. Real portfolios that attempt to exactly replicate these theoretical strategies will generate lower returns relative to these models due to slippage, transaction costs, tax expenses and other costs. There are limitations inherent in our theoretical results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. We do our best to provide accurate information, but do not guarantee this. Please see additional disclosures and disclaimers.

Theoretical Model Portfolio* 11/30/15 MTD YTDSince

03/31/09 SharpeSimple Returns (No Compounding)

Stock Targets Core ModelLong -0.44% 1.28% 11.67% 163.1% 1.05 Short 0.12% 0.34% -0.91% 72.2% 0.54 Core Long/Short -0.56% 0.94% 12.58% 90.9% 0.86

Stock Targets and Opportunistic ModelPortfolio Targets Long -0.44% 1.28% 14.63% 150.2% 1.27

Short 0.00% 0.34% -7.87% 11.6% 0.09 Opportunistic Long/Short -0.44% 0.94% 22.49% 138.6% 1.40

Stock Targets and Opportunistic Model IIIPortfolio Targets Long Stocks -0.44% 1.28% 14.63% 150.2% 1.27

Long Inverse ETF ^SH 0.00% -1.06% 0.06% -78.1% (0.84) Opportunistic Long/Short III -0.44% 0.22% 14.69% 72.1% 0.83

S&P 500 Index -0.60% 0.11% 2.09% 104.86% 0.95

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Core Opportunistic"Dollar

Neutral" 1"Dollar

Neutral" 2

Inception March 31, 2009Long , Stock

Targets

Long, Stock and Portfolio Targets

Long/Short, Stock Targets and Portfolio

Targets

Long, Stock and Portfolio

Targets / Long ^SH ETF S&P 500

11/30/2015 Theoretical Theoretical Theoretical TheoreticalSimple ReturnsToday -0.57% -0.57% -1.64% -0.57% -0.46%MTD 1.28% 1.28% 0.94% 0.22% 0.36%YTD 11.67% 14.63% 22.49% 14.69% 4.02%Cumulative from 3/31/2009 163.09% 150.22% 138.60% 72.10% 119.05%

Absolute RiskDaily Average 0.10% 0.09% 0.08% 0.04% 0.06%Daily Range 16.86% 15.84% 11.84% 12.00% 11.40%Daily Standard Deviation 1.46% 1.12% 0.94% 0.82% 1.03%Daily Return/Standard Deviation 6.65% 8.02% 8.82% 5.25% 6.04%

Average 90-Day T-bill 1.29% 1.29% 1.29% 1.29% 1.29% Annualized Daily Returns 24.48% 22.55% 20.80% 10.82% 15.74% Annualized Standard Deviation 23.2% 17.7% 14.9% 13.0% 16.4%Sharpe Ratio 1.00 1.20 1.31 0.73 0.88

Percentage Down Days 45.1% 34.4% 42.7% 43.7% 44.8%Average Daily Downside Value -1.03% -0.90% -0.63% -0.55% -0.74%Daily Downside Deviation -1.10% -0.91% -0.61% -0.58% -0.79%Daily VAR of 1000 at 95% Conf -23 -17 -15 -13 -16

Benchmark Relative RiskCorrelation 0.90 0.69 (0.07) 0.02R-Squared 0.82 0.47 0.00 0.00Daily Tracking Error 0.69% 0.85% 1.44% 1.31%

RegressionBeta 1.28 0.74 -0.06 0.02Daily Alpha 0.035% 0.027% 0.020% -0.020%Jensen's Daily Alpha 0.044% 0.020% -0.001% 0.000%

Trading Days 1679 1679 1679 1679*Returns calculated by the simple return method (not compounded).

* Portfolio models are theoretical and assume no costs.

* Data collected in real time since 3/31/2009

Source: Ascendere Associates LLC

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 14 November 30, 2015

DISCLOSURES Ascendere is in the business of providing equity research and related consulting services to investors and their advisors. The equity research it provides includes basic quantitative model portfolios and more detailed fundamental research with respect to individual stocks. In addition, the firm manages stock portfolios for itself and clients. Ascendere does not rate stocks on any scale, but does offer individual stock commentary and valuation opinions. With regard to Ascendere's portfolio strategies, "long" or "high-quality" baskets should generally be considered buys, unless otherwise noted. Stocks in our "short" or "low-quality" baskets should generally be considered sells, unless otherwise noted. While exceptions may occasionally occur, typically stocks in the high-quality basket are expected to outperform the S&P 500 over a month's time and stocks in the low-quality basket are expected to underperform. A more relevant benchmark would comprise of all stocks and ADRs that trade on major U.S. stock exchanges with a market cap above $2 billion. Ascendere adheres to professional standards and abides by codes of ethics that put the interests of clients ahead of its own. The following are specific disclosures made by Ascendere: 1) Ascendere may have a financial interest in the companies referred to in this report ("the Companies"). The research analyst covering the Companies and members of the analyst's immediate family have a financial interest in one or more of the Companies. 2) Ascendere generates revenue from research subscription revenue and portfolio management fees. At any given time it may be long or short any of the Companies. 3) Ascendere does not make a market in the securities of any of the Companies. 4) Ascendere has not received compensation from the Companies. 5) Ascendere has not managed or co-managed a public offering for any of the Companies. 6) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of any of the Companies. 7) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst beneficially own 1% or more of any class of securities of any of the Companies. DISCLAIMERS This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, or an offer, to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The report is not intended to be in furtherance of the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual recipient. Investment decisions should be based on an individual's own goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. The information contained herein accurately reflects the opinion of Ascendere at the time the report was released. The opinions of Ascendere are subject to change at any time without notice and without obligation or notification. The officers, affiliates or family members of Ascendere Associates may hold positions in the securities of the Companies. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. The views and opinions expressed in the market commentary reflect the opinions of the author and may be based upon information obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. These opinions are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions. Ascendere disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information is intended for the sole use of clients of Ascendere. Any other use, distribution or reproduction is strictly prohibited. Investing in stocks includes a high degree of risk, including the risk of total loss. This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. All information, opinions and estimates are current as of original distribution by author and are subject to change at any time without notice. Any companies, securities and/or markets referenced are solely for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. For Investment Professional use only. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION. Any dissemination or copying of this commentary is strictly prohibited.

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 15 November 30, 2015

J. Stephen Castellano – founded Ascendere Associates LLC to provide innovative equity research and investment advisory services that blends fundamental and quantitative approaches. In general, our approach is quite simple -- we believe that return on invested capital and long-term earnings growth are key to stock valuation. More specifically, we use powerful and unique financial models that combine publicly available data, consensus estimates and our own inputs to generate consistent and actionable stock recommendations.

Among the services that Ascendere provides are: 1) detailed custom equity research analysis; 2) valuation scenario analysis studies; 3) supply /demand studies; 4) long and short stock idea generation; 5) portfolio feedback; 6) detailed fundamental financial modeling services; and 7) additional analytical consulting services. Additional information is available at www.ascenderellc.com. Mr. Castellano has over 15 years of experience in equity research and related consulting work. At PaineWebber, Warburg Dillon Read and Credit Lyonnais Securities he developed fundamental equity valuation models and conducted in-depth research on the steel and telecom services industries. At Boston Private Value Investors, he developed quantitative models for stock idea generation and also provided general fundamental equity research coverage. Steve received a MBA from the F. W. Olin School of Business at Babson College (2005) and a BA from Oberlin College (1993). Mr. Castellano's career history is highlighted below:

• Ascendere Associates, LLC (2009-Present) • Boston Private Value Investors , Equity Research, Equity Research Analyst (2005-2009) • Pyramid Research, Contract Consultant, Telecom Services (2002-2003) • Credit Lyonnais Securities (USA), Equity Research, Telecom Services, Vice President (2000-2001) • Warburg Dillon Read, Equity Research, Telecom Services, Research Associate (1999-2000) • PaineWebber, Equity Research, Steel and Nonferrous Metals, Research Associate, Editor (1995-1999)