7/27/2019 Artigo - Escopo - Curiosity - The Prerequisite for Good Estimate

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Curiosity: The Prerequisite for Good Estimates

Jan Warko, PMP

What makes for a good estimate? In a nutshell, I believe its curiosity, and the ability to ask questions until your curiosity andyour teams curiosity is satisfied. To keep the questions coming, ask your estimators(yourself included) to live the estimates. Help them understand the importance of theirestimate in the context of the project. If we had to present our estimate in an hour andcouldnt change it, in what way would your estimate or assumptions change? Or, If youhad to bet your job on the accuracy of your estimate, would anything change? Why?

Curiosity killed the cat, as the saying goes. Lack of curiosity can kill your project just as easily.

Getting a handle on estimating terminology is also essential. Effortand duration play key roles in scheduleestimates (check your PMBOK or any number of other project management documents for the official definitions).

l I like to think of effortas the amount of time an activity or task would take if one person did the task at a100% productivity level for 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The effort portion of the estimate is the placeto take into consideration a resources productivity and experience level (ask them, and/or document yourassumptions).

l Duration is that same amount of work identified in your effort estimate, but placed in the context of the

clients calendar and the length of the standard workday. Duration is the place to take into considerationcalendar events specific to each resource, such as vacations, holidays, nonstandard work schedules,additional work commitments, or other items affecting availability (again, ask them. This can be one of themore enjoyable aspects of project planning).

In some circumstances, the estimate for a task is based solely on the duration aspect (i.e., coordinating allparticipants busy calendars to schedule the acceptance sign-off meeting means waiting three weeks to close theproject). Basing an estimate solely upon effort is valid only for those of us lucky enough to have an interruptionfactor of zero. For the tasks performed by humans, the best schedule estimate should take into considerationboth effortand duration (plus a little bit of gut feeling and intuition).

Cost estimates address the resources rate over the life of the project and the frequency in which that rate isincurred. Cost estimates for resources should take into consideration internal staff, external staff, travel andequipment. Check out Mark Durrenbergers You Cant Negotiate Cost article in the September 2000, issue ofpm Network magazine for a relevant discussion of the role of negotiation in the estimating process.

Whats a good approach to developing an estimate? Here are some tactics I take into consideration everytime I estimate. Skipping one or more is not recommended, but sometimes unavoidable; be sure to capture theelements you bypass in your assumptions and other aspects of your risk management plan. Estimates should:

Match work p lans to the numerous c l ien t cons t ra in ts regard ingexisting or planned processes, quality, risk(including issues and assumptions), results, scope, and of course, schedule and cost. In other words, estimatesare based on clear and open communication about every aspect covered by the knowledge areas of thePMBOK. A full understanding of the scope (both product and project) and risk are most essential.

I cant say enough about assumptions. A wise man knows what he doesnt know, and he also knows when hesmade an assumption. Document assumptions regarding your basis for estimating and about those things that

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may affect the estimate (especially those factors that are out of control of the team). Not only will your changemanagement plan be more robust, re-estimating your project in light of changes will be a breeze.

Be based on a c lear unders tand ing o f the work to be accompl ished. Once again, the scope is critical indeveloping a good estimate, as is the nature and size of the components supporting the project and the skillsrequired to deliver the results. Estimates arent accurate if the projects objective isnt known, or is known but notwidely understood.

Be based on a c lear unders tanding of the commitm ent level to the projec t. Commitment to the project swork plans and supporting estimates has a direct relationship with the degree of certainty about the projectsresult and the project processes that will be followed.

Involve the r ight people, including the person(s) doing the work and the person(s) responsible for projectdelivery. Whenever possible, use qualified resources who

l are experts in the application area, andl are experienced with the technology that will be used to deliver project results.l are trained in the process the project will follow,

l have produced work plans and estimates on a regular basis,

There is absolutely no substitute for the judgment and knowledge gained from doing a similar project in the past.

Be iterat ive. Ive found the following iteration points to be consistently valuable:

l At a high level, to exercise the project approach and expected performance.l At a level of detail that is sufficient enough to make project commitments with logical resources. Assume

an average skill level until the next step.l At a level of detail that provides a solid foundation for managing project performance against schedule and

cost, requiring specific, named resources.l At each status meeting as agreed to in the communication plan, to keep abreast of changes to and

progress of the project

Consider each resource s ef fec t iveness/product iv i ty . So many things contribute to a human resourceseffectiveness. The list includes but is not limited to:

l project organization (size; number of locations; type)

l organizations culturel skill, experience, motivation, initiative and attitudel development environment

l size and complexity of the solution being developedl schedule considerations, such as overtime or securing specialized resourcesl customer characteristics (where they are located, the nature of the client)

l project elapsed time (risk of burnout)

l physical working environment (risk of burnout)

Is an estimate provided outside the context of the work to be done and the people doing the work a goodestimate? I suggest this would be a good guess, not a good estimate. You are guessing when:

l there isnt any relevant experience (i.e., new technology and/or new clients and/or new project type, etc.).

Estimates created without relevant experience tend to be off by approximately 35 percent.l when the project manager doesnt ask questions or otherwise satisfy his/her curiosity.l a consensus approach is used, which can sometimes result in an educated guess in the context of a work

plan review workshop, but does not produce an average.

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When youre estimating, youre communicating. As an added bonus, the more you estimate projects of differentsizes and complexity levels, the better your estimating becomes and the better your projects perform. If yourestimates and corresponding actuals are captured in your Project Review, other projects estimates may be moreaccurate. Who thought estimating could benefit so many people?

Jan Warkoczewski is a senior project management consultant at Berkshire Consulting, LLC. and specializes inthe creation and delivery of project management offices. She is currently studying for her Masters in ProjectManagement degree.

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