ARIES- ACT, 26-27 Sept, 2012, Bethesda, MD Page 1 L. Waganer Consultant for ARIES Project / UCSD /...

ARIES- ACT, 26-27 Sept, 2012, Bethesda, MD

L. WaganerConsultant for ARIES Project / UCSD / DOE

ARIES Project Meeting 26-27 September 2012

Bethesda, MD

Assessing ACT Cost Results & Status of Cost Documentation


Status of ARIES Systems Code Results

•The ARIES Systems Code produced the ACT-1d performance and cost results on 26 July 2012. I used the print files for the source of data.

•The code has incorporated the costing algorithms recommended and this assessment was conducted to validate those results.

PS. Where is the Availability shown?


Systemic Error The first finding was that the method for the GDP escalation factors is being incorrectly applied. ASC costs are reported in 2010$. All costs seem to be inflated by about 9.5%.

Year Index2005 100.00002006 103.23112007 106.22652008 108.58232009 109.52982010 110.99212011 113.35882012 115.6260

GDP Implicit Price Deflator27 July 2012

Cost Algorithm BasisASC Reported Basis

Example Calculation – Land Cost

C20.01 = $20 M x (Pnet/1000) 0.3 x 110.9921 / 109.5298 (where Pnet = 1006.01 MW) = $20 M x (1006.01/1000) 0.3 x 110.9921 / 109.5298 = $20.303 M

As opposed to reported cost of $22.238 M, 9.5298% high

Second Example – Site Improvements and Facilities C21.01 = $27 M x 110.9921 / 109.5298 = $27.3605 M vs. reported cost of $29.9676 M, 9.529% high

This error seems to be systemic to all the reported costs. The 2010$ base value is correct, but the base cost used was 2005$ instead of the 2009$ algorithm cost basis. Simple Fix.

GDP Chained Basis

Reported costs should = 110.9921/109.5298= 1.01335 times 2009$


Some Accounts Not Estimated A few Cost Accounts, shown below, are not being estimated, probably due to lack of definition.

These accounts need to be examined to determine the primary cost parameters and then develop cost algorithms for them.

22.1.7 Shield Cooling, Low Temperature22.2.1.6 Thermal Isolation Struts (TF Coils)22.2.3 Feedback Control Coils22.2.4 Cryogenics for Plasma Confinement22.2.5 Power Supplies for Plasma Confinement22.3.3 Stability Control Subsystem with Power Supplies22.4.3 Primary Vacuum Pumps22.4.4 Roughing or Backing Pumps22.4.6 Plumbing, Cryogenic (for Vacuum System)


Costs Are Reported in Two ASC Files

• The Systems Costs are reported in the “Costing Accounts” file, whereas more detailed cost data are reported in the “Systems - Full Part Printout” file. The latter has many different sections pertaining to different subsystems.

• However, the data in these two files do not agree in organization or content.

• The next two slides generally show how they correspond.

• Additional slides will provide more information about specific subsystems.

• Generally, I try to identify inconsistencies and not fix them.


“Costing Accounts” Results Do Not Match with “Systems - Full Part Printout”

22.1.0 Fusion Energy Capture and Conversion: 300.398

22.1.1 First Wall and Blanket, replaceable, IB & OB: 45.7235

22.1.2 Second Blanket, life of plant: 56.1438

22.1.3 Divertor Assembly, upper and lower, replaceable:17.7512

22.1.4 High Temperature Shield, outside blanket &/or divertor, replaceable 24.1795

22.1.5 High Temperature Shield, outside of replaceable HT Shield, life of plant: 122.586

22.1.6 Penetration Shielding (low temperature, active and passive): 34.0147

22.1.7 Shield cooling, low temperature: 0

ASC Full Part File

15.9934

110.446

41.196

50.584

The ASC file “Costing Accounts” data is inconsistent with the “Systems, Full Part Printout” Data. Only the Fusion Energy Capture and Conversion data is shown above.

The categories do not correspond in all cases. e.g., • There are two HT shields. I believe the upper one is the HT Shield/Structure (aka Steel Ring) and the lower one is the LT Shield. In the Full Part File, they are given the name HT, IB/OB and HT, Top and Bottom. See another VG for more info.• Where do Manifolds show up?• Vacuum Subsystem costs are inconsistent (see another VG)• The CryoDome is estimated but where does it show up?


Costs Differ Between ASC “Systems - Full Part Printout” and “Costing Accounts”

These two sets of data from the ASC output files differ. Mark needs to determine the source of the differences.

Purple font text items are added for sums or non-mentioned dataSubsystem or Component Sys File C. Accts VacuumVesselMain: 86.2582 VacuumVesselOutboard: 42.2959 Total Vacuum Vessel: 128.554 327.334

MaintenancePort: 166.365 UpperVVDuctBottomWall: 4.3556 UpperVVDuctTopWall: 2.48871 UpperVVDuctSideWall*2: 9.40565

Vacuum Pumping Ducts 30.396

Total Ports (16): 192.021

Total TF Coils Cost (16): 203.783 374.977

BuckingCylinder: 10.1192 11.2314

TF Coil Upper Cap: 37.263 TF Coil Lower Cap: 37.263 CryoDome: 49.4161 ManifoldingTop: 10.2709 ManifoldingBottom: 10.2709

PF Coil Costs: 36 active, 14 spares (preliminary estimate): Active PF Coil Cost (36): 60.5915 Spare PF Coil Cost (14): 19.5893 Total PF Coil Cost: 80.1807 88.9934

Subsystem or Component Sys File C. Accts FirstWall Inboard: 2.04314 FirstWall Outboard: 5.42463 BlanketInboard: 14.7827 BlanketOutboard: 18.9452

All FWB Replaceable 41.19567 45.7235

BlanketII: 50.5841 56.1438

Total First Wall & Blankets: 91.7798 103.8673

Div1: 1.71269 Div2: 3.36641 Div3: 2.90757 Div4: 2.91723 Div5: 3.3905 Div6: 1.69897 Total Divertors (6): 15.9934 17.7512

RepHTShieldTop: 10.8926 RepHTShieldBottom: 10.8926 HTShieldInboard: 30.4819 HTShieldOutboard: 79.9645

HT Shield, Replacable 24.1795

HT Shield, Outside VV, LOP 122.586

Total HT Shields: 132.231 146.7655Penetration Shielding 34.0147


Fusion Energy Capture Accounts 22.1.4 and 22.1.5 Need To Be Renamed




22.1.3 Divertor Assembly, upper and lower, replaceable: 17.7512

22.1.4 High Temperature Shield, outside of blanket and/or divertor, replaceable: 24.1795

22.1.5 High Temperature Shield, outside of replaceable HT shield, life of plant: 122.586


22.1.7 Shield cooling, low temperature: 0

22.1.1 22.2.122.1.522.4.122.1.422.1.2 Acct

• Acct 22.1.4 should be labeled “High Temp Shield and Support Structure- Replaceable or Life of Plant?” - Drop use of “Steel Ring”

• Acct 22.1.5 should be labeled “Low Temperature Shield Outside the Vacuum Vessel, Life of Plant”


Lifetime Power Core Components Removed with Sector are SCR Items




22.1.3 Divertor Assembly, upper and lower, replaceable: 17.7512

22.1.4 High Temperature Shield & Support Structure, outside of blanket, replaceable: 24.1795

22.1.5 Low Temperature Shield, outside Vacuum Vessel, life of plant: 122.586


22.1.7 Shield cooling, low temperature: 0A potential replacement strategy is to remove an entire sector, including FWB, Bkt II, Divertor and HT Shield/Support Structure to Hot Cell. Then a refurbished sector is moved back to the power core. During operation, the FWB and Divertors are removed, the Blanket II and HT Shield/Support Structure are inspected and the FWB and Divertors are replaced.

Therefore, the Bkt II and HT Shield/Support Structure are in the Hot Cell about half the time. But the second set needs to be accounted as Scheduled Component Replacement hardware, SCR.

We need to rename recommends the “steel ring” should be replaced at 10 or 20 yrs. Which is being used?

What is best terminology for replaced components? Replaceable, Recyclable, LOP?


Radial Builds Differ Between ASC Code and Laila’s 5/31-6/1 Meeting Data

Inboard to Outboard Radial Build [m]:Ref ACT-1d, Sys Data file Laila's

Thickness R. Build Radius Device Centerline 0 0 Bore 2.70405 2.70405 Central Solenoid 0.144501 2.84855 Gap 0.02 2.86855 Bucking Cylinder 0.139743 3.00829 Gap 0 3.00829 TF Coil Annulus 0.393776 0.414 3.40207 Gap 0.111513 0.2 3.51358 LT Shield, IB 0.45 Gap 0.2 Vacuum Vessel IB 0.5 0.5 4.01358 Gap 0.04385 0.01 4.05743 HT Shield/Structure IB 0.180072 0.2 4.2375 Gap 0 0 4.2375 Blanket IB 0.336 0.336 4.5735 Gap 0 4.5735 First Wall IB 0.014 0.014 4.5875 Scrape-Off Layer IB 0.1 4.6875 Plasma Centerline 1.5625 6.25 Plasma Outer Edge 1.5625 7.8125 Scrape-Off Layer OB 0.1 7.9125 First Wall OB 0.014 0.14 7.9265 Gap 0 0 7.9265 Blanket OB 0.286 0.0286 8.2125 Gap 0.01 0.05 8.2225 Blanket II 0.45 0.45 8.6725 Gap 0 0 8.6725 HT Shield/Structure OB 0.2 0.2 8.8725 Gap 1.1 9.9725 Vacuum Vessel 0.34 0.1 10.3125 Gap 0 LT Shield, OB 0.34 Gap 3.52087 13.8334 TF Coil 0.393776 0.414 14.2271 Gap 1.12189 15.349 Cryostat 0.4 15.749

Radial Build from 5/31-6/1/12 Meeting

Laila, Xueren and Mark need to resolve differences.


Material Costs Are Slightly Out of Date • In the Materials Properties file, the material unit cost basis is Rev P, so Les just provided Mark the current Rev S version.• The material cost database is presently displayed in 2011$. Are these values converted to 2010$ for the Cost Accounts?• Lithium enrichment should be 55-60% per El-Guebaly presentation on 5/31/12. (60% OK?)

All properties updated 10/2011 'Fabrication Costs per kg RevP (10282011).xls' L. Waganer All coil properties provided by L. Bromberg ~2007 'TF, PF Magnet.doc'

Material NameDescription Purpose Den (kg/m3) $/kg Cost basis,y B-FS FS_RA_blanket_structure_borated bulk_shielding_material 7800 7.73 2011PbLi Li17Pb83_liquid_90%_Li6_enrichment_650C liquid_breeder_coolant 8897 9.06 2011RAFS FS_RA_large_complex_structure_(composite) vacuum_vessel_complete_structure_&_cryostat_structure9500 44.78 2011SiC-comp SiC-SiC_composite_structure high_temp_blanket_structural_material 3200 602.66 2011Void Void space_with/in_or_between_components 0 0 2011W W_cast bulk_shielding_material 19300 124.08 2011WC WC_balls_plates bulk_shielding_material 15500 35.45 2011TF-coil composite_TF_coil_structure_cost TF-coil_structure 7500 50.912 1992PF-coil composite_PF_coil_structure_cost PF-coil_structure 7500 82.919 1992Nb3Sn PFMagnet-"LT_Superconductor" low_temp_superconductor_for_PF_magnet 7500 92.7 1992Cu TFMagnet-"Copper" for_TF_&_PF_magnet_composition 7300 65.4 1992YBCO TFMagnet-"HT_Superconductor" high_temp_superconductor_for_TF_magnet 6200 92.7 1992Polyamide TFMagnet-"Polyamide" for_TF_&_PF_magnet_composition 1920 16.516 1992Inconel TFMagnet-"Inconel" for_TF_&_PF_magnet_composition 8440 50.912 1992SS316 TFMagnet-"Stainless_Steel-316" for_TF_&_PF_magnet_composition 7860 68.657 1992FS FS_RA_blanket_structure moderately_high_temp_blanket_structure 7800 92.17 2011He 99.999%_pure_from_Qingdao_Baigon_China coolant_in_heat-transfer_system 0.1786 72.16 2011RAFS-div FS_RA_divertor_structure_(25%_surcharge) moderately_high_temp_divertor_structure 7800 115.21 2011RAFS-cryost FS_RA_moderate_size_welded_double-walled_assemblyvacuum_ducts_&_cryostat 7800 28.93 2011Placeholder specific_name purpose 0 0 2011Placeholder specific_name purpose 0 0 2011Placeholder specific_name purpose 0 0 2011


Errors in the FWBS Reporting

• Volume of FWB and Bkt II are similar, yet the BktII mass is double with identical materials. However costs are similar.

• Materials for LT Shield in ASC data seem to be FS/SiC, not FS/WC/B-FS, per El-Guebaly, 5/12. Eliminating the SiC and adding WC and B-FS would significantly lower the LT Shield cost.

• The ratio of volume, mass and cost between the LT Shld and HT Shield/Support (aka Steel Ring) at roughly 10 seems excessive, although the LT Shield/Str is thicker and at a larger radius on the OB region.

• In the Systems Data/Full Parts file, the product of the mass times the most expensive material unit cost for that component is only a small fraction of the reported cost in either the Full Parts file or the Cost Accounts.

Acct Name Matls $/kgIB

Thick,cmOB

Thick,cm Vol, m^3 Mass, kg Cost, M$(1) Cost, M$(2)22.1.1 FWB SiC/W 602/124 35 24 169 6482 41.20$ 45.70$ 22.1.2 Bkt II SiC/W 602/124 0 45 179 11,106 50.60$ 56.10$ 22.1.4 HT Shld/Suppt FS 92 20 20 26 7024 21.80$ 24.20$ 22.1.5 LT Shield FS/WC/B-FS(3) 92/35/8 45 24 217 84,874 110.40$ 122.60$

(1) Data from ASC ACT-1d System Data file

(2) Data from ASC ACT-1d Costing Accounts file

(3) Data from El-Guebaly slides, 5/31/12


Further Examination of FWBkt and Bkt II Full Parts File Data

• OB Bkt has twice the volume of IB, but 66% of the mass and 128% of the cost, Tungsen in the IB might help explain the higher weight, but not the cost difference.• Blanket II is 50% thicker than the OB Blanket and has 67% more volume, which is probably correct. However the mass is five times as much and cost 2.67 times as much. Is this due to material composition errors (should be FS/WC/B-FS)?

Part Name Material Volume FracDensity FracMatl Dens Cost/Mass Cost Basis YearVol of Part Surf Area LM Mass Mass,Part Cost,Part[kg/m3] [$/kg] [m3] [m2] [tonne] [kg] [M$]

Plasma_AT 581.965 627.864FirstWallInboard SiC-comp 0.545 0.95 3200 602.66 2011 2.31894 163.974 9.38738 240.126 2.04314

PbLi 0.455 0 8897 9.06 2011FirstWallOutboard SiC-comp 0.557 0.95 3200 602.66 2011 6.02424 368.706 23.7438 637.546 5.42463

PbLi 0.443 0 8897 9.06 2011 FW Sums 8.34318 532.68 33.13118 877.672 7.46777

BlanketInboard SiC-comp 0.129 0.95 3200 602.66 2011 53.5283 166.696 399.566 3378.17 14.7827PbLi 0.839 0 8897 9.06 2011W 0.032 1 19300 124.08 2011

BlanketOutboard SiC-comp 0.109 0.95 3200 602.66 2011 107.513 393.309 852.28 2226.59 18.9452PbLi 0.891 0 8897 9.06 2011

Sum FWB 169.3845 6482.432 41.19567BlanketII SiC-comp 0.135 0.95 3200 602.66 2011 179.606 434.693 1334.29 11106.4 50.5841

PbLi 0.835 0 8897 9.06 2011W 0.03 1 19300 124.08 2011

$45.72 M

Cost Acct Data

$56.14M


Examination of HT and LT Shields In Systems – Full Part File

Data is from System – Full Part Printout

• It is difficult to identify the shielding components by name. All categories are called “HT”. Some are called IB and OB, others are called replaceable Top and Bottom. Suggest correcting nomenclature per prior slides.• The HT IB/OB Shields (LT Shield?) volumes are 8.25 times as large as Replaceable HT Top/Bottom Shields (HT Shield/Structure?), 12.1 times as heavy, and costs 5.1 times as much – this is probably due to the SiC content in the Rep HT T/B Shields. Need to verify data.

HTShieldInboard FS 0.8 1 7800 92.17 2011 60.0621 126.264 0 23424.2 30.4819He 0.2 0 0.1786 72.16 2011

HTShieldOutboard FS 0.8 1 7800 92.17 2011 157.564 358.265 0 61449.9 79.9645He 0.2 0 0.1786 72.16 2011

Sum HT Shields 217.6261 484.529 84874.1 110.4464RepHTShieldTop FS 0.411 1 7800 92.17 2011 13.1525 116.183 17.4357 3512.42 10.8926

SiC-comp 0.351 0.95 3200 602.66 2011PbLi 0.149 0 8897 9.06 2011He 0.089 0 0.1786 72.16 2011

RepHTShieldBottom FS 0.411 1 7800 92.17 2011 13.1525 116.183 17.4357 3512.42 10.8926SiC-comp 0.351 0.95 3200 602.66 2011PbLi 0.149 0 8897 9.06 2011He 0.089 0 0.1786 72.16 2011

Sum Rep HT Shields 26.305 232.366 7024.84 21.7852

Part Name Material Volume FracDensity FracMatl Dens Cost/Mass Cost Basis YearVol of Part Surf Area LM Mass Mass,Part Cost,Part[kg/m3] [$/kg] [m3] [m2] [tonne] [kg] [M$]


Power Core Vacuum System Costs Do Not Agree With Part File Data

• Vessel components costs are not consistent. Maintenance ports show up as a higher cost as they are more massive.• Not sure what “Maintenance Port Sum” means. • VV ducts do not match the Account Cost results.• Primary and Roughing Pumps and Cryo Plumbing are not in Part File

Full Part FileCost Accts Vacuum vessel Main 86.26$

Vacuum Vessel 327.33$ Vacuum Vessel Outboard 42.30$ He Liq-Refr 16.65$ Maintenance Port 166.37$ Includes doors?Primary V. Pumps -$ Maintenance Port Sum 192.02$ Roughing Pumps -$ UpperVVDuctBottomWall 4.36$ Vac Pump Ducts 30.40$ UpperVVDuctTopWall 2.49$

Plumbing, Cryo -$ UpperVVDuctSideWall 9.41$ Total 374.38$


Summary of ASC ACT Costs • The cost reporting methodology is in place and is

working

• The consistency of the nomenclature should be improved

• Compatibility of cost data internal to the Parts File and between the Cost Accounts needs to be corrected

• An error in the escalation methodology needs to be fixed

• The materials data base needs to be updated


Status of ARIES Cost Documentation From 2007 to 2009, I have been documenting the historical

economic basis for the ARIES Systems Code and updating the costing algorithms.

The updated cost algorithms have been implemented in the ASC code.

A comprehensive ARIES Cost Account Document has been written and updated that describes the evolution of MFE power plant economic cost estimating process from the early 1970’s to the current time. The basis for the current costing algorithms are defined and substantiated.

The present intent is to publish the document on the ARIES web as an evolving economic document that is the basis for the ASC economic analyses.

ARIES- ACT, 26-27 Sept, 2012, Bethesda, MD Page 1 L. Waganer Consultant for ARIES Project / UCSD /...

Documents

Transcript of ARIES- ACT, 26-27 Sept, 2012, Bethesda, MD Page 1 L. Waganer Consultant for ARIES Project / UCSD /...