Are the MDGs feasible?

Moscow

November 2002

Presentation by: Diana Alarcón

Paper by: Jan Vandemoortele

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Feasibility of MDGs, too general question

• MDGs include 8 goals, 18 targets, 48 + indicators

• The level at which the feasibility of the MDGs is assessed will influence the outcome.

• The lower the level the aggregation, the better the assessment but the more complex the result.

• Feasible at the global or regional level, does not imply feasibility in all nations or all regions.

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The fallacy of averages• Averages are misleading.

• Meeting a target “on average” does not necessarily mean improving living conditions of specific regions or groups.

• Most progress eludes the poor and disadvantage.

• Averages mislead the sense of achievement

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11% 12%9%

7% 6%

28%32%

29%

17%17%

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999

$1/day National poverty line

5

6

Under five mortality rate and Net enrolment ratio in education

10389

132

166

223

80 827059

48

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

U5MR NER

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Education

Failure to meet the education target = negative impact on the chances of reaching other targets by 2015.

The higher the level of education of mother:• the lower the risk of child mortality before age 5 • The lower the malnutrition.

Girls' education is key to achieving the MDGs.

8

HIV/AIDS

AIDS is a major threat to human development

Pandemic is spreading fast in other regions especially in Eastern Europe and the Caribbean

Great impediment to achieving the MDGs.

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HIV/AIDS and gender

Gender issues are central:• High risk of infection among adolescents• Women represent a growing proportion of people

living with HIV/AIDS. • Young women and girls with little or no education

have the greatest risk of infection. • In Africa new HIV infections are

disproportionately concentrated among poor and illiterate adolescent women.

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Are MDGs affordable?

• MDGs will require extra 50 – 80 billion dollars

• the gap of $80 billion per year represents about one-third of 1 per cent of global annual income.

• Achieving the MDGs is about setting priorities, not just mobilising resources or finding technological breakthroughs.

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MDGs: Feasible and affordable

The MDGs are technically feasible and financially affordable.

Yet, the world is off-track to meeting them by 2015.

The MDGs are ambitious, yet some countries will meet them.

If these countries can achieve the MDGs, there is no reason why others cannot achieve them too.

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MDGs: Feasible and affordable

• Resource mobilization

• Political will

• National Ownership