NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION8484 Westpark Drive, Suite 500 | Tysons, VA 22102

SOURCE: Wards Intelligence

April’s new light-vehicle sales saw an 18.5 million-unit SAAR—the second straight month (following a March

revision) of sales above 18.0 million units and the highest monthly sales rate since July 2005 with a 20.6

million SAAR. The April 2021 SAAR is also up 112% from April 2020—which experienced the weakest sales

of the pandemic—and up 12.1% from April 2019. Though pent-up demand from the pandemic played a role

this April, sales were also likely pulled forward by consumers’ uncertainty about being able to find the vehicles

they want in coming months.

While final month-end inventory data for April is not available yet, inventory levels will likely end up at a

decades-long low. And unfortunately, the shortage will continue. According to Auto Forecast Solutions, the

semiconductor microchip shortage has caused a worldwide production falloff of some 2.29 million vehicles.

Current forecasts put projected total vehicle production losses from the global chip shortage at 3.36 million

units, with 1.11 million from North American production.

OEMs continue to prioritize production for retail customers over fleet customers, with sales in April driven by

strong retail sales gains. Retail sales in April, says Wards Intelligence, are estimated to be up 114% from April

2020 and up 23% from April 2019. Meanwhile, fleet deliveries increased by 88% from April 2020, but fell by

42% from April 2019. Amid burgeoning demand for travel, rental car companies and other fleet buyers have

had to turn to the used-vehicle market to source inventory. Demand for used vehicles from both fleet and retail

customers has caused used-vehicle values to skyrocket. The Manheim used-vehicle value index is expected to

set records through June, says Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive. Used prices will likely stay

high through the summer, remaining so until new-vehicle production can be normalized.

Because of such strong demand, OEMs have relied less on incentive spending. According to J.D. Power, average

incentive spending per unit in April will probably total $3,191, off $1,762 from the highs of April 2020 and

down $382 from April 2019. Incentive spending is expected to remain lower than in previous years as long as

new-vehicle inventories remain tight and new-vehicle demand is high. It’s now clear that the microchip shortage

will continue for the rest of the year, with the biggest impacts to production and sales likely coming in the next

few months. Still, we remain confident that new-vehicle sales will remain robust in 2021, with a total of 16.3

million units for the year.

BEATMARKET

April 2021

Patrick Manzi, NADA Chief Economist

Ford

GM

Market Share, by manufacturer

Percent share of market (also indicated by size of circle)

2.0%

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

1% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

-1.2

-1.4

-1.6

-1.8

-2.0%

● Gain ● No change ● LossAll figures are year to date/year-to-date changes.

*Other is Jaguar/Land Rover, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Tesla, Volvo

Nissan

Market Share, by powertrain

Diesel 3.7%Hybrid 4.7%Electric 2.4%Plug-in hybrid 0.7%

Gasoline 88.5%

SUV9.1% 4.8%

VanCrossoverPickup17.9%

Small Car9.3%

Large Car0.6%8.3%

Midsized Car Luxury Car4.4%

Market Share, by segment

46.6%

SubaruBMW

Other*

Hyundai-Kia

Daimler

VW

Apr 2021 Y/Y % Jan - Apr 2021 YTD/YTD %

Total Car 4.13 109.6% 3.84 16.0%

Total Light Truck 14.37 112.9% 13.51 36.3%

Domestic Light Vehicle 13.85 104.3% 13.14 27.0%

Import Light Vehicle 4.65 139.7% 4.21 46.7%

Total Light Vehicle SAAR 18.51 112.3% 17.35 31.2%

U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales(Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates)

Stellantis

Honda

Toyota