Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby...
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Transcript of Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby...
![Page 1: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management
and resource assessment
Rob WilbyClimate Change Science Manager
![Page 2: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Adaptation can involve costly and difficult decisions...
![Page 3: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
…involving development of major assets
![Page 4: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
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Climate model uncertainty and adaptation response...
Downscaled precipitation scenarios for the River Thames under A2 emissions in the 2050s
![Page 5: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Wider policy drivers
Shaping adaptation in the UK
• EU Directives (e.g., Groundwater, Landfill, Water Framework)
• UK Government Adaptation Policy Framework
• Planning (e.g., CFMPs, SMPs, AMP, BAPs, PPS25)
• Guidance (e.g., Defra flood factor)Land use issues are identified as a priority area for embedding climate change in Agency policy and process.Photo: Philip Owen
![Page 6: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Talk outline
Derwent reservoir during the 1995 UK drought.Photo courtesy of Nick Jackoby
The plan
• Using a multi-model ensemble to evaluate adaptation options
• Components of uncertainty affecting river flow projections
• Future plans and challenges of using probabilistic information
• Concluding remarks
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Using multi-model ensembles: Appraisal of adaptation options
for the River Kennet
![Page 8: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Long-term nutrient enrichment of the River Thames, 1930-2000
![Page 9: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
‘Luxuriant’ macrophyte growth
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![Page 11: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and predictor variable archive
http://www.sdsm.org.uk/
![Page 12: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Downscaled daily precipitation for the River Kennet under A2 emissions by the 2080s illustrating the relative aridity of the HadCM3 GCM
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Changes in daily precipitation downscaled from each GCM
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CATCHMOD daily river flow changes under A2 emissions
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Daily precipitation and PE downscaled for the River Kennet using three GCMs for the 2080s
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INCA-N model of soil and instream nutrient concentrations
![Page 15: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
INCA-N simulation of Nitrate-Nunder A2 emissions: headwater
Nitrate as Nitrogen, A2 emissions
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CGCM2S CSIROS HadCM3S
Concentrations exceeded 5% of the time
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Appraisal of adaptation options
Five scenarios
• Baseline conditions under HadCM3 A2 emissions
• Fertiliser use reduced by 50%
• Deposition of atmospheric pollutants reduced by 50%
• Water meadow creation (4 x surface area of river)
• Combined approach with 25% reduction in fertiliser and
deposition, water meadow creation (2 x surface area)
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Simulation of adaptation outcomes under HadCM3 A2 emissions
Concentrations exceeded 5% of the time
Nitrate as nitrogen, A2 emissions
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Baseline Fertiliser Deposition
Meadows Combined
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Summary (part 1)
• Large uncertainty in projected (summer) climate due to GCM• HadCM3 : lower river flows, deployable yield, nutrient flushing following
prolonged drought, and general decline in water quality• CGCM2 : wetter summers, more deployable yield, greater reliability, stabilising
water quality beyond 2050s• Differences between A2 and B2 emissions relatively small• Effectiveness of strategies: reduce fertiliser (or land use) > water meadow
creation > reduced atmospheric deposition• Combined approach sustains water quality at 1950s level even under climate
change projected by HadCM3
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Probabilistic framework: Assessing uncertainties in low
flows for the River Thames
![Page 20: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The ‘cascade’ of uncertainty affecting low flow projections
Future society
Emissionspathway
Climatemodel
Regionalscenario
Impactmodel
Impact
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Effective winter rainfall (mm)
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Uncertainties due to GCM/ downscaling pair
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Summer Winter
Model Bias (%) Weight Bias (%) Weight
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HadCM3
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NCEP 7.6 n/a 4.8 n/a
An Impacts Relevant Climate Prediction Index
This IR-CPI is based on the skill of the GCM/downscaling pair for effective rainfall in the Thames basin
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Observed CATCHMOD REGESSION
Uncertainty due to low flow model structure
Derived from observed daily rainfall and PE
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Uncertainty due to waterresource model parameters
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Identifiability - high
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• 4x GCMs, 2x emissions, 2x downscaling methods, 2x low flows models, 100x parameter sets
• Weight GCMs by modified Climate Prediction Index• Weight low flow model structures by radj statistic• Weight low flow model parameters by N-S score• Emissions and downscaling method unweighted• Monte Carlo simulation (2000+ runs)• Evaluate using (Q95) low-flow index for River Thames
An experimental framework for assessing uncertainties
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Uncertainties due to emission scenario
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Uncertainties due to GCM
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Uncertainties due to downscaling method
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Uncertainties due to low flow model structure
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Uncertainties due to low flow model parameters (HadCM3, A2)
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Combining all sources of uncertainty
![Page 32: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Summary (part 2)
LikelihoodUncertainty component
Min Max
Emissions 82 83
GCM 47 100
Downscaling 66 100
Hydrological model 72 92
All weighted/ unweighted 76 82
Conditional probabilities of lower summer river flows in the Thames by the 2080s
![Page 33: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Next steps: Preparing the way for the
UKCIPnext probabilistic scenarios
![Page 34: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Impacts assessment usingClimatePrediction.net archive
Frequency distribution of global mean temperature response to doubled CO2 produced by CP.net, compared with IPCC (2001) range.
![Page 35: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Reviewing Defra’s 20% allowance for future flood risk
Variations in the 20-year flood by the 2050s under the UKCIP02 Medium-High emissions scenario
Source: Reynard et al. (2004)
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Incorporating probabilities in flood maps & planning guidance
Changes in the extent of the 0.5% tidal flood between 2000s (green) and 2050s (red line).Source: Tim Hunt
![Page 37: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
• Probabilistic climate change information is increasingly becoming available
• Planning and asset management will need to make best use of new forms of climate change information
• Risk-based modelling frameworks must be developed to inform adaptations responses
• Developing guidance on the use of conditional probabilities will be a critical part of this process
Concluding remarks
![Page 38: Applying probabilistic scenarios to environmental management and resource assessment Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk.](https://reader037.fdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022103123/56649d265503460f949fcac5/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
A few words of wisdom
“If there is even a small risk that your house will burn down, you will take care to install smoke alarms and buy insurance. We can scarcely do less for the well-being of our society and the planet’s ecosystems”
Spencer Weart (2003: 199)