Apples – International market, trade and...

Apples –International market, tradeand outlook

Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlook

and outlookPrognosfruit - Congress 2012Helwig Schwartau, AMI

1. Outlook for the market in autumn

2. Trade in Europe, outlook for exports

3. Club varieties apples



4. Overseas apples, shifting of trade

EU-27: apple stocks 1st. July

122

41

39

42

44

50200

250

300

350

F

UK

SP/P

PL

(1.000 t)� 50.000 t more than last

years, a good positionfor the next season, particular für bicolour

� Jonagold/Jonagored2012: 30.000 t2011: 34.000 t2010: 68.000 t


60 95

93 112

44

0

50

100

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PL

IT

AT

BEL

GER

2011: 34.000 t2010: 68.000 t

� Golden Delicious2012: 179.000 t2011: 135.000 t2010: 148.000 t

� Season starts normal, 7-10 days later thanlast year

EU Imports: New Zealand bicolour apples(Braeburn/Pink L./Cripps/Jazz)

Total import2012 = 77.600 t2011 = 88.400 t 2010 = 80.972 t


17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37

2011

2012

2010

EU-27: First time, more apples in the East, less in the West

3,361,86 3,19 3,85

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

NMS

� 2012 = One of the lowestproduction ofthe last years, but…

� Distribution of regions not comparable with 2007 and 2010

� EU-15 with very small

(1.000 t)


2,14 2,26 1,88 1,84

4,86 4,974,58 4,05

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

Ø '07-'11 2007 2010 2012

EU-15 South

EU-15 North

� EU-15 with very smallproduction, particular in the South

� NMS expected 3,87 Mio t, only more ‘08 (4,5 Mio. t)

� Relaxed autumn, changeing trading flow, less table apples than2007 and 2010

EU-27: Apple harvest for freshmarket

1,20

2,08 1,73

1,45

1,98

1,93

4

5

6

7

8In Mio t

� The lowest volumefor freshmarket of thelast years???

� More second qualitiesfor storage?

� Volume with hail damage?

� Effect of price level for


5,47 5,31 5,52 5,16 5,394,52

0

1

2

3

4

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13

Volume NMS Volume EU-15

� Effect of price level forprocessing

Interesting discussion for theevening. Don‘t forget demand(economic crisis) and importsfrom overseas.

EU-27: Apple harvest for processing

15

20

25

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 5001.000 t� AJC stocks cleared!

Price on a relativ high level

� In Western Europe lesscrop the smallest cropof the last years

� German - outside market

EUR/100kg

?


0

5

10

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

06/07 09/10 12/13

Volume NMSVolume EU-15Ø German/Italy processing

� German - outside marketproduction 100.000 tlower than last year

� Poland bigger crop, more hail, shapprocessingincreasing 10% than2011?

?

Processing applesautumn ’11 ( EUR 100kg)Europe 14/15,-(Germany 12,75/14,-)China 16/17,-

China AJC to expensive ?

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 500

2 000

2 500

AJC exportsAJC price

1.000 t USD/t fob


Exchange rate USD/Euro (-10% than autumn 2011)Currently China AJC frankoEU Cust.1,7/1,75 EUR/kgChina Export Jan-April2012 = 195.900 t (NL 1.540 t)2011 = 258.100 t (NL 26.300 t)

0

200

400

600

2002 2005 2008 20110

500

1 000

2. Trade in Europe, outlook for exports


outlook for exports

Western Europe : Production bicolour apples

� Braeburn: Relaxed seasonFrance/Italy = 147.000 t (-28%)

� Gala: -13% than 2011Hold up market share in North Africa/ Middle East?

� Jonagold: All countries 592

406

316382

2981500

2000

2500

Elstar

1.000 t

GER/NL/BEL/IT/F/AT


� Jonagold: All countrieswith lower crop.Concentrated salesin Western Europe, no stress till February

� Elstar: Netherland -30% than last year. Less exports to Germany.

314 265 294 238

686632 686

598

592459

513

393

298

0

500

1000

2009 2010 2011 2012

Jonagold-Groupe

Gala

Braeburn

France: Apple exports in 2011/12(August – April), comparison to 2010/11

Russia26.400 t

(31.400 t)

Russia26.400 t

(31.400 t)

Germany49.500 t

(50.200 t)

Germany49.500 t

(50.200 t)

UK108.000 t

(126.000 t)

UK108.000 t

(126.000 t)

Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlookHelwig Schwartau: Apples - Review of 2010/11 season

North Africa

80.400 t (62.800 t)

North Africa

80.400 t (62.800 t)

MiddleEast

61.500 t (40.700 t)

MiddleEast

61.500 t (40.700 t)

Source: Eurostat

Spain92.900 t

(63.200 t)

Spain92.900 t

(63.200 t)

Asia20.500 t

(19.700 t)

Asia20.500 t

(19.700 t)

Italy: Apple exports in 2011/12(August – April), comparison to 2010/11

Russia35.200 t

(44.300 t)

Russia35.200 t

(44.300 t)

South Eastern South

Eastern

EU-15423.000 t

(461.000 t)

EU-15423.000 t

(461.000 t)

Apples – International market, trade and outlookApples – International market, trade and outlookHelwig Schwartau: Apples - Review of 2010/11 season

Eastern Europe72.100 t

(91.500 t)

Eastern Europe72.100 t

(91.500 t)

North Africa

102.914 t (53.900 t)

North Africa

102.914 t (53.900 t)

Source: Eurostat

MiddleEast

38.000 t (30.300 t)

MiddleEast

38.000 t (30.300 t)

EU apple exports to North Africaand Middle East (Aug. till April)

80

100

120

140

160

Melill/Egypt/Maroc

Middle East

Libya

Algeria

1.000 tons


0

20

40

60

80

'07/08 '09/10 11/12 '07/08 '09/10 11/12 '07/08 '09/10 11/12

Algeria

France

Italy

Spain

Poland: Apple exports (Aug.- April)In 1.000 t 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

Total 714 611 348 655

EU-27 Extra 502 503 310 590

EU-27 Intra 212 108 38 65

Russia 230 231 196 356

Ukraine 225 220 63 92

Kazakhstan 7 19 13 22

Good season 2011/12

Strong investment(75% subvention)


Kazakhstan 7 19 13 22

Belarus 32 27 34 116

Baltic 106 29 18 18

S. East Europ 61 41 8 26

EU-15 46 38 12 21

UK 3 5 2 4

Scand (incl. NOR) 17 16 7 9

Germany 16 14 4 10

Bigger apple harvestin the future(above 3 Mio. t ?)

Planting trends (20% Idared) targeted to theeast markets

5060708090

100In 1.000 tons

Russia: apples imports 2011/12 by month(Competition Poland/ GUS/ EU15)


01020304050

A S O N D J F M A M

GUS Poland EU15 EU15 (2010/11)Source GTA

Russia: Less apple importsfrom Western Europe (August - May)

40

60

80In 1.000 tons Total imports:

2011/12 = 1.070.000 t2010/11= 995.000 t2009/10 = 980.000 t


0

20

40

IT F BE GER NL Argent. Chile

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

-25%-21%

-47%-13%

-55%-50% -12%

Source: GTA

1316

723

206

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500GER

BEL

NL

IT

Planting trends importantClub varieties (2011-12)

1.000 trees

Crop Junami 2012 = 17.000 tvs. ‘11 (+/-0%)

Crop Jazz

Crop Kanzi 2012 = 36.000 tvs. ‘11 (+42%)


1654

267 224 400650

392 375

433

174

1379

556 320

477

267144420

1050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 IT

UK

F

other

Crop Jazz 2012 = 22.000 tvs. ‘11 (+8%)

Crop Kiku2012 = 17.000 tvs. ‘11 (+6%)

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

Important Club varieties -Sales (%) in Europe


0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

GER F IT Skan UK NL BEL SP RUS

Gesamt Pink Lady Kanzi Jazz

0,3

3,1

3,0

3,9

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

Cameo, Kanzi, Rubens

Pink Lady

Club varieties – Consumption in Germany(September - August in %, estimate 2011-12)

Pink Lady EU crop2012 = 120.000 t


0,5

0,6

0,7

0,9

1,3

4,5

4,0

4,7

5,5

6,2

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12© AMI 2012,Source AMI-Analyse based of GfK-Panel

2012 = 120.000 t 2011 = 147.000 t2010 = 128.000 t

1,60

1,80

2,00EUR/kg

Quelle : GfK

Germany: Consumption price1kg-Foodtainer


1,00

1,20

1,40

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

Pink Lady Braeburn Gala Kanzi/Rubens/Cameo

4. Overseas apples,shifting of trade


shifting of trade

431512 529

Europe

73

114

74

Russia

210206

173

Asia

162

132

177

North Am.

176 191180169 192

156

1 240 000 1 360 0001 300 000

Worldwide


Import markets for apples in the world, trading South Hemisphere, till July(1.000 tons) 2012 (red graphic column), 2011 and 2010

AsiaAfrica/Mid.East

156

Lat. America

Worldwide

Destination 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 main market

Total exports 700 808 780 789 Asia 329 (‘08 = 172)

Asia East 88 95 110 131 Taiw. 68/ Hongk. 57

Asia South East 66 91 102 121 Indonesia 60

Asia South 18 48 38 77 India 72

Middle East 45 81 64 62 VAE 28/ Saudi A. 20

USA: apples exports/ imports (1.000 t)


Middle East 45 81 64 62 VAE 28/ Saudi A. 20

South America 14 19 12 29

North./Latin Am. 341 347 340 283 Mexico 168

EU 40 32 24 11

Total imports 154 151 188 138

Chile 92 87 122 86

New Zealand 32 44 41 32

New Zealand: Apple export to Asia increase, till July (1.000 t)

1.000 t 2007 2009 2011 2012

Asia 38 51 69 79

EU cont. 108 109 99 73

UK 54 41 38 3912

422

50

60

70

80Club Var.

Fuji

2012 - Export by varieties

*21


America 37 38 28 30

M. East 5 10 9 13

Total 246 254 256 246

30 18

6

39

18

7

710

12

7

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

Asia EU (Con.)

UK USA M.East

Gala

Braeburn

Constant worldwide export volume, but….

�Strong focus to Asia�EU – only UK stable, but…�Middle East more interesting

*31*20

*34

*41

(* Last year)

5449 19

17

3943

36

13

150

200

250

Chile: Worldwide apple export (1.000 t)

Europe/Russia

North A.

AsiaM. East

Global export2012 = 606.000 t2011 = 682.000 t 2010 = 661.000 t 2009 = 573.000 t


6580

5470

57 58

19 20 17

54 6350

7588 82

2018

11

13 15

2827

12

2328

26

5449

41 23

12 18

1112

10

1717

28 2825

13

12

23

0

50

100

'10 '11 '12 .. '10 '11 '12 .. '10 '11 '12 .. '10 '11 '12 .. '10 '11 '12

Other Cripps Braeburn Fuji Granny Red Del Gala

AsiaM. East

Latin A.

Prospect for apple season 2012/13

� Stocks (EU/overseas) better cleared than usual

� Different apple forecast in the European countries

� West – Relaxed autumn

� East – Poland with a good apple harvest 2012


� East – Poland with a good apple harvest 2012

� The lowest volume of table apples for the last years

� Stable price for processing, AJC stocks cleared

� Apple exports from overseas, slightly more than 2012

Season 2012/13 : Positive outlook for countries with a halfway normal crop

Thanks a lot for your attention.

HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI, BÜRO HAMBURG


[email protected]

+49 (0)40-6505595-0

Western Europe: Organic apples forecast 2012

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000In tons

Apple crop:2012 = 95.740 t2011 =123.677 t2010 = 93.369 t2009 = 94.673 t2008 = 82.919 t


0

10 000

20 000

30 000

S. Tyrol GER AT NL F BEL

2009 2010 2011 2012

2008 = 82.919 t

-15%

-42%-44%

-43%

-20%

-25%

Source: EBF/AMI

Western Europe: Organic apples forecast 2012

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000In tons


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

Golden Gala Topaz Braeburn Elstar Jonagold

2009 2010 2011 2012

-18%

-35%-14%-29%-15%

-27%

Source: EBF/AMI

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